Weekend Thread: Top 5 Actuals- The Lion King $76.62M | OUATIH $41.08M | SM: FFH $12.45M | TS3 $10.45M | CRAWL $4.06M

[Cap]

16 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

That’s also a good point but I do think while this will be the most female skewing due to the prequel plot amongst other things,

Here’s the thing though. This isn’t 2013. Nat/ScarJo is not the Only Girl. I don’t have to stan her on principal anymore. I don’t have to rush out on OW in fear that if the movie even SLIGHTLY underperforms, I will never get another female superhero ever.  I don’t even have to worry if the film fails Marvel will never hire another female director. 

 

I can wait a couple months, the Eternals ARRIVES with Jolie. Hayek. Ridloff.

 

In 2021, Val and Mighty Thor are gonna be bi-girlfriends and Wanda’s gonna break the multiverse via BOTH the cinematic experience and Disney+. I can stay home and watch Carol on repeat. 

 

I really hope the Widow is a solid spy thriller a la Atomic Blonde. If it is two hours of the fights like the scene they showed at SDCC I will STAN. 

 

I just don’t see the box office draw. Wonder Woman was able to pull a 4X multi because Boomer women came out in droves. Wondy holds a special place in their minds, and Wondy benefits from transcending “comic book character” to “feminist icon”. Even with the popularity of the MCU, I would argue that Widow never made that leap. 

 

I just don’t see Widow getting that extra boost. 

 

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

11 minutes ago, TMP said:

Little Women seems a bit no1curr, while I can see Marriage Story winning Picture as well as Actor/Actress. Even then, Johansson's other fall film Jojo Rabbit is gonna be a huge Oscar player - she could get a double nom since she's going supporting there.

Also, Irishman won't be ready in time for any of the big fests at this rate; might be another Silence awards-wise.

Marriage Story won't win anything or even get nominated. The Academy just doesn't like Noah Baumbach that much. Gerwig has already made a larger impression with Lady Bird than any of Baumbach's films. Little Woman should also get Telluride and NYFF premieres (like Lady Bird).

 

Wolf of Wall Street wasn't also ready for festivals and premiered in December. Irishman should have a much larger Academy award push than Silence which didn't do well for the same reasons why The Last Temptation of Christ didn't do well.

 

Either way my point isn't that The Irishman will be a big Oscar player. My point is that Netflix will spend a lot more on The Irishman because it's a much bigger film and investment for them.

Edited July 29, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[Avatree]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Still Minions was one of the few animated films with a sub 3.0x multiple, and had bad WOM. IA3-4 stayed practically flat but IA5 died.

Did Minions actually have bad WOM from families in America or is that just from adults? (Difficult for me to tell because it was well liked here in Britain, including getting many rave reviews from critics)

 

Being front-loaded due to fanbase legions of kids doesn't mean it had bad WOM. 

[Avatree]

5 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Here’s the thing though. This isn’t 2013. Nat/ScarJo is not the Only Girl. I don’t have to stan her on principal anymore. I don’t have to rush out on OW in fear that if the movie even SLIGHTLY underperforms, I will never get another female superhero ever.  I don’t even have to worry if the film fails Marvel will never hire another female director. 

 

I can wait a couple months, the Eternals ARRIVES with Jolie. Hayek. Ridloff.

 

In 2021, Val and Mighty Thor are gonna be bi-girlfriends and Wanda’s gonna break the multiverse via BOTH the cinematic experience and Disney+. I can stay home and watch Carol on repeat. 

 

I really hope the Widow is a solid spy thriller a la Atomic Blonde. If it is two hours of the fights like the scene they showed at SDCC I will STAN. 

 

I just don’t see the box office draw. Wonder Woman was able to pull a 4X multi because Boomer women came out in droves. Wondy holds a special place in their minds, and Wondy benefits from transcending “comic book character” to “feminist icon”. Even with the popularity of the MCU, I would argue that Widow never made that leap. 

 

I just don’t see Widow getting that extra boost. 

 

 

 

 

I think Black Widow will do extremely well but I would agree I don't think it is going to receive the "female empowerment boost" that Wonder Woman and Captain Marvel had where they were inspirational to young girls. 

 

But that doesn't mean it can't do just as well based on other reasons such as being an existing character and the oldest Avenger in the MCU and coming off of Endgame.

 

Edited July 29, 2019 by Avatree

[Minnale101]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Still Minions was one of the few animated films with a sub 3.0x multiple, and had bad WOM. IA3-4 stayed practically flat but IA5 died.

Minions got A cinema score. Wouldn’t call that bad WOM 

 

but yeah 71% of its box office came overseas 

 

which is way bigger ratio Disney animated and Pixar movies 

 

much closer to ice age ratios. 

 

So have to see the ER rates affected 

 

Latin America which was massive for movie should be lower

 

china DM3 did 153 million. Minions 1 68 million 

 

China market for Hollywood movies bigger than it was in 2015

 

 

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

10 minutes ago, Avatree said:

I'm not familiar with Little Women or Marriage Story (not even heard of that) but I reaaally doubt Jojo Rabbit is an Oscar player. It's a comedy.

 

🤔

Also, I don't trust that Disney is going to handle any of the Fox films well this year. On the other hand, it does seem like the movie to have the best chance to be their awards player this year so it could get a major push and sneak in (unless Disney wants to is going to try to push Endgame for the Oscars or some crap).

[TMP]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Marriage Story won't win anything or even get nominated. The Academy just doesn't like Noah Baumbach that much. Gerwig has already made a larger impression with Lady Bird than any of Baumbach's films. Little Woman should also get Telluride and NYFF premieres (like Lady Bird).

 

Wolf of Wall Street wasn't also ready for festivals and premiered in December. Irishman should have a much larger Academy award push than Silence which didn't do well for the same reasons why The Last Temptation of Christ didn't do well.

 

Either way my point isn't that The Irishman will be a big Oscar player. My point is that Netflix will spend a lot more on The Irishman because it's a much bigger film and investment for them.

At worst Marriage Story will get a Best Actor nomination. At this point Driver and DiCaprio are the only nominations I have any confidence in, and maaaaybe Joaquin if it's really a "career-best performance". Lady Bird felt fresh and unique, and idk if the 20th Little Women adaptation is gonna have that going for it. It's also not an original screenplay from her, and the script to Lady Bird was one of its strongest assets imo. If Little Women gets into Telluride, I'll probably change my tune.

Netflix is juggling a lot of big Oscar players this year too; Marriage Story, The Irishman, Two Popes, so I don't know if they'll just drop the ball on their campaigns.

[Cap]

8 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Uhhhh wat

 

Hepburn and Ryder’s Little Women are ICONIC. Why do I need this new version that looks exactly the same as the other SIX film versions and countless other TV and stage adaptations? At least the non-starter low budget one last year had the wherewithal to modernize it. 

 

(And yes, yes, I knooooooow that Timmy is in it.)

 

 

[TMP]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Also, I don't trust that Disney is going to handle any of the Fox films well this year. On the other hand, it does seem like the movie to have the best chance to be their awards player this year so it could get a major push and sneak in (unless Disney wants to is going to try to push Endgame for the Oscars or some crap).

Ford v Ferrari is probably getting the biggest push from them imo, then Jojo.

[Avatree]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Also, I don't trust that Disney is going to handle any of the Fox films well this year. On the other hand, it does seem like the movie to have the best chance to be their awards player this year so it could get a major push and sneak in (unless Disney wants to is going to try to push Endgame for the Oscars or some crap).

Ford v Ferrari seems more likely though?

 

Or even Brad Astra.

 

 

 

Edited July 29, 2019 by Avatree

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Avatree said:

 

I think Black Widow will do extremely well but I would agree I don't think it is going to receive the "female empowerment boost" that Wonder Woman and Captain Marvel had where they were inspirational to young girls. 

 

But that doesn't mean it can't do just as well based on other reasons such as being an existing character and the oldest Avenger in the MCU and coming off of Endgame.

 

It will do well, it just won’t do extraordinarily well. Henceforth I think TWS numbers seem right on the money. Besides Endgame is why I think it won’t do as well.

[Ledmonkey96]

6 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Did Minions actually have bad WOM from families in America or is that just from adults? (Difficult for me to tell because it was well liked here in Britain, including getting many rave reviews from critics)

 

Being front-loaded due to fanbase legions of kids doesn't mean it had bad WOM. 

Kind of? I'd be surprised if minions 2 outdoes Despicable Me 3 though, especially after SLOP 2, Minions should be treated as something more akin to SLOP than Despicable me despite being a spin-off tbh, it's got about as much of an impact. Even kids were getting tired of the Minions by the end of the movie.

[TMP]

Just now, Avatree said:

Brad Astra

Seems destined for low box office and critics prizes. It'll probably be the best of the three though.

[Ethan Hunt]

1 minute ago, captainwondyful said:

 

Hepburn and Ryder’s Little Women are ICONIC. Why do I need this new version that looks exactly the same as the other SIX film versions and countless other TV and stage adaptations? At least the non-starter low budget one last year had the wherewithal to modernize it. 

 

(And yes, yes, I knooooooow that Timmy is in it.)

 

 

Because Greta Gerwig 

 

I realize rhis argument means we also need a barbie movie but that's ghe way it is

Edited July 29, 2019 by Ethan Hunt

[Krissykins]

21 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I think it's been pretty awesome. That second trailer was terrific.

Yeh, they’ll be waiting for the other big films to be released before they kick into gear. Plus it’s months away still. 

 

The tv spots for the first film were amazing. So I’m sure there will be plenty of buzz before opening. 

 

I would not be surprised at a drop though, at the end of the day it’s a horror sequel, which very often drop. 

[Valonqar]

People underestimate JoJo Rabbit cause it's a comedy. Big mistake. Comedies win, not as often as dramas but they win. it isn't unheard of especially if a comedy is quirky. which JoJo Rabbit is. Also, people who read the script and saw the movie say it's heavier than what shown in the trailers. 

[Cap]

1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Because Greta Gerwig 

 

I realize rhis argument means we also need a barbie movie but that's ghe way it is

Even more reason we don’t need it. 

[lorddemaxus]

8 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

really hope the Widow is a solid spy thriller a la Atomic Blonde. If it is two hours of the fights like the scene they showed at SDCC I will STAN. 

Hopefully it isn't going to be as confusing as Atomic Blonde. Would be surprised if the writer of that crappy Olaf short film and The Hustle can come up with a good spy story.

[TMP]

I don't even think ScarJo's that great outside of Spike Jonze's Her, but I can't see her missing a nomination this year with two strong contenders.

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Would be surprised if the writer of that crappy Olaf short film and The Hustle can come up with a good spy story.

The writer of The Hangover: Chapter 2 just did Chernobyl. Anything's possible. H*ck, we might have 3-time Oscar nominee Todd Phillips in a few months.

 

Edited July 29, 2019 by TMP

[Avatree]

1 minute ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Kind of? I'd be surprised if minions 2 outdoes Despicable Me 3 though, especially after SLOP 2, Minions should be treated as something more akin to SLOP than Despicable me despite being a spin-off tbh, it's got about as much of an impact. Even kids were getting tired of the Minions by the end of the movie.

 

What has SLOP 2's performance got to do with Minions? They are unrelated brands and most audiences probably aren't even aware its the same studio. 

Minions are still well in the public consciousness. You could even argue (though I'm not sure I will,) that DM3's decrease was because it was a less Minion focused film and had new characters no one cared about when the audience just wanted more minions.