baumer Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 3 hours ago, CoolEric258 said: I'm sorry, how is having other data no longer mean "true feelings"? Sure with tracking and presales you could do more of an educated guess, but your own interpretation on new information is still how you truly feel about something. We are human, so we can look at data and information we are given, and have different conclusions to something. Besides, are we not allowed to change our thoughts or opinions on something? And quite honestly, I usually consider year-ago predictions to be more on the optimistic side in the first place, and not fully indicative on what a forum thinks about something before release. If you think that people's predictions from 2017 or 2018 is what we should follow and listen to all the time, then fine by me. But that's just how we differ The difference is when you don't have anyone else's predictions to go on or you don't have tracking to go on when you put a number out there it's based on your own research in your own opinion. When you start using other people's opinions and tracking that's no longer your opinion that is just prognostication based on someone else's work. 5 years ago we didn't have tracking to go on and that's what made predictions so much better back then. I truly don't understand how you could possibly think that by using someone else's data someone else is predictions someone else's words and thoughts, how that could possibly translate into your own feelings and thoughts. That makes zero sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawrenceBrolivier Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 You're basically saying a blind guess based on total ignorance is more "Honest" than an informed opinion based on outside data and analysis if I'm understanding you correctly... Box-office prognostication aside... people come to settle on their own opinions and thoughts all the time via translating what they've heard and seen other people say and do. Here's a good example: If I have a feeling about a movie based on nothing but the plot description and casting announcement.... and then I see the trailer for that movie later and that feeling changes... it doesn't mean my opinion is now false and no longer mine. It means I took new information into account and adjusted accordingly... It's still my feelings and thoughts... I just know more now than I did then.... IF I hear about a movie coming out, and I have a number in mind... and then someone tells me its in x theaters and the trailer got y views.... and I change that number based on hearing that, it doesn't mean my number still isn't mine... I still have to take responsibility for what I think and feel, especially if I say it out loud in front of others... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PenguinHyphy Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 (edited) A 61% drop for an adult movie in July Monday does not project a good weekend drop. Edited July 30, 2019 by PenguinHyphy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Not sure if the $9.1 million Monday is good or bad for TLK. Doesn't seem that great, but it's numbers haven't been stellar since last Wednesday anyway. Based on second week multipliers, it would give TLK a M-Th $36-$40 million. That's quite a drop from last week, especially for the summer. Probably looking at a 50% drop in its third weekend which is still a bit steep. $600 million would officially be dead if that were the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Prime Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 (edited) 47 minutes ago, baumer said: The difference is when you don't have anyone else's predictions to go on or you don't have tracking to go on when you put a number out there it's based on your own research in your own opinion. When you start using other people's opinions and tracking that's no longer your opinion that is just prognostication based on someone else's work. 5 years ago we didn't have tracking to go on and that's what made predictions so much better back then. I truly don't understand how you could possibly think that by using someone else's data someone else is predictions someone else's words and thoughts, how that could possibly translate into your own feelings and thoughts. That makes zero sense. Sure opinions can change if you garner new outside information from other sources, and that doesn't invalidate something as your own. That's how research and developing predictions happen in the first place, and is why ideas morph and change through the years. Obviously it's not the exact same thing, but scientists look at other people's work and data all the time to develop hypotheses and experiments, but I don't see you complaining about that. And in the case of box office, yes having new information, whether it be tracking, presales, trailer views, movie reviews, and so on, can change people's minds, and can help people form new ideas or opinions about a movie's prospects, and we shouldn't shun people for that, nor go all "it's not your gut instinct. You can't change your mind like that." Just out of curiosity, there were plenty of people who were hesitant on Infinity War even topping 500M, let alone 670M, a year or so before the film opened, and only started changing their tunes once trailer view records were broken, ticket sales were strong, and hype seemed extreme across the board. Does that make those people now predicting 600M+ suddenly invalid because it wasn't "gut instincts" or whatever? Are they suddenly deserving to be made fun of or called out because they thought the film was going to be frontloaded back in 2016 or 2017? And hell, data can be interpreted in many different ways, positive and negative, and can be interpreted based on personal feeling. So, you know, a personal opinion based on other people's data or predictions? It doesn't even matter anyway. I started this stuff because JB's specific statement "everyone thought this was going to be #1 until IT 2" was only ever being said by one person, at least in the past couple weeks (mahnahmahnah in the weekend prediction thread, who is always overly optimistic), but if people got more receipts, I'm glad to hear them. The only reason we started talking about people predicting 600+ back in 2017 and 2018 was because MovieMan's been throwing a hissy fit for the last couple weeks because people are daring to commend a movie for making 1.5B, and he's all antsy because "YOU ALL SAID IT WAS A LOCK FOR 2B WHY ARE YOU ALL CHANGING THINGS WHY ARE YOU ALL STUCK IN THE PAST" Edited July 30, 2019 by CoolEric258 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jiffy Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 (edited) 7 hours ago, cdsacken said: Huh? Budget was 36 million made 215 domestically. Vs 90m budget with expectations of 120 (maybe) domestic. Not in the same stratosphere. Exactly why I said I understood the budget concern, but it is an example of why debuting at #2 is irrelevant to whether or not it's a smash. Edited July 31, 2019 by Jiffy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 4 hours ago, CoolEric258 said: Wasn't that only like one or two people? How does that apply to "everyone"? People's opinions of just how big obviously varied but the general consensus seemed to be that this would be massive. Now, the pure numbers are big, as I already said, I just think that given what we all know about family films based on huge properties in the summer, it was a safe bet for most of (okay, maybe not EVERYONE) that this would have great legs throughout July and August. It's obviously really early in the run so I'm being clearly premature with this, but at the same time I stand by my assertion that a 62.3% 2nd Monday drop for a film like this in the summer is not great Bob. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 I think Minions holds is gonna be a good comp for TLK from here out. Has been having slightly worse comparable holds than that so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawrenceBrolivier Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 14 minutes ago, Jiffy said: Exactly why I said I understood the budget concern, but it is an example of why debuting at #2 is irrelevant to whether or not its a smash. "Once Upon a Time.... in Hollywood Opening Weekend softly sneaks past prior successes opening at #2 behind dead-eyed virtual puppetshow The Lion King! Not irrelevant! NOT A SMASH!" by Nikki Finke 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 33 minutes ago, JB33 said: It's obviously really early in the run so I'm being clearly premature with this, but at the same time I stand by my assertion that a 62.3% 2nd Monday drop for a film like this in the summer is not great Bob. It's not a great drop, but there's definitely plenty of time to recover as most big summer openers experience good late legs after harsh second/third weekend drops. As I mentioned earlier, it's down 56% from last Monday- nearly an identical percentage drop as Incredibles 2 which went on to have a great 3.33x multiplier. I'm not expecting anywhere near the same legs, but something like a 2.9x is still very much in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said: I think Minions holds is gonna be a good comp for TLK from here out. Has been having slightly worse comparable holds than that so far. That's not a bad comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 Deadline HollywoodVerified account @DEADLINE 2h2 hours ago More ‘Avengers: Endgame’ Box Office Propels Imax’s Strong Q2 Financial Performance https://deadline.com/2019/07/avengers-endgame-box-office-propels-imaxs-strong-q2-financial-performance-1202657336/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
