Joker: Folie a Deux | October 4, 2024 | Lady Gaga is Harley Quinn in this 200M+ musical sequel

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Would definitely take "opening below Beetlejuice" at this point. Buzz for this just feels so much more anemic compared to the first movie at the same point in time. Waiting to see what the early sales look like, but for now, I think we're looking at an IT 1/2-style drop-off here (and honestly, that's feeling optimistic).

Here's a spicy take:

 

Domestically, this will make less than one-half of the third highest grossing movie of the year

 

Pretty insane for what was seen as a potential year winner domestically

 

Spoiler

(I mean the third when everything this year has finished its run, I don't mean the current third)

 

Edited September 8 by HummingLemon496

[TomThomas]

25 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Would definitely take "opening below Beetlejuice" at this point. Buzz for this just feels so much more anemic compared to the first movie at the same point in time. Waiting to see what the early sales look like, but for now, I think we're looking at an IT 1/2-style drop-off here (and honestly, that's feeling optimistic).

I didn't "feel" Beetlejuice hype or buzz either and yet it opens to 100 mln. Quorum data is very good, pre-sales data will tell a real story. But personal vibes is not a good indicator of anything.

Edited September 8 by TomThomas

[TheFlatLannister]

51 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

I've been out of the loop.  Is there data to support the OW numbers you're throwing around or is this your personal opinion? 

Yeah I’m confused too. Seeing $100M+ locked thrown around and I just don’t see how considering lukewarm reception. $100M is likely happening but saying locked is premature 

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, TheFlatLannister said:

Yeah I’m confused too. Seeing $100M+ locked thrown around and I just don’t see how considering lukewarm reception. $100M is likely happening but saying locked is premature 

If WOM is bad, how low can this go domestically? IT dropped from $328M (2017) to $211M (2019)

[TheFlatLannister]

49 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Would definitely take "opening below Beetlejuice" at this point. Buzz for this just feels so much more anemic compared to the first movie at the same point in time. Waiting to see what the early sales look like, but for now, I think we're looking at an IT 1/2-style drop-off here (and honestly, that's feeling optimistic).

Prior to reactions I was at $130M+
 

now thinking around $100M-$110M

[TheFlatLannister]

3 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

If WOM is bad, how low can this go domestically? IT dropped from $328M (2017) to $211M (2019)

Well, I’m still thinking the musical aspect will turn off a good amount of CBM fans. The floor I would guess: $80M OW, 200M+ DOM 

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Prior to reactions I was at $130M+
 

now thinking around $100M-$110M

I actually think an opening below the first movie isn't nearly as insane as a lot of people think it is. Lightning in a bottle hits that overperformed like crazy, especially when the first movie was obviously conceived as a standalone movie with zero franchise aspirations, tend to be mighty tough acts to follow, and especially when some of the factors that contributed to that movie's breakout (like the manufactured "oh no, this movie is a rallying call for violent incels!" controversy that gave it a curiosity factor) were never going to be usable a second time.

[HummingLemon496]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I actually think an opening below the first movie isn't nearly as insane as a lot of people think it is. Lightning in a bottle hits that overperformed like crazy, especially when the first movie was obviously conceived as a standalone movie with zero franchise aspirations, tend to be mighty tough acts to follow, and especially when some of the factors that contributed to that movie's breakout (like the manufactured "oh no, this movie is a rallying call for violent incels!" controversy that gave it a curiosity factor) were never going to be usable a second time.

Venom 3 > Joker 2 OW 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Venom 3 > Joker 2 OW 

Positive that's also opening to less than whatever this ends up debuting to. 

[HummingLemon496]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Positive that's also opening to less than whatever this ends up debuting to. 

Not the Venom 3 thread, so I'll keep this brief: I have faith in $100M+ OW for that movie (it can still open to $100M but below Joker)

[ThomasNicole]

Some of you are putting too much weight in those reviews 

 

On social media most of the posts about the reviews just have people talking about how “they hated the first too, I don’t care”

 

I doubt this will explode or something, but the 115-145M BOP range seems very fair lol. 
 

 

[Mad Max007]

$100M should be a given. How it holds in the weekends after that is the question.

[AN9815]

2 hours ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

I've been out of the loop.  Is there data to support the OW numbers you're throwing around or is this your personal opinion? 

It's my personal prediction. I mean tickets, as far as I know, haven't been on sale but the last one opened to $96m so a +$100m for the second one doesn't seem that difficult considering the first one is very well liked. Of course I could be wrong and it could be one of these sequels that "nobody asked for" and makes 1/2 the first one but I haven't had that impression.

[Mad Max007]

13 hours ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

I'm not feeling this movie, unfortunately. I loved the first one, but this one seems very off. 

 

The trailer was played during a Hellboy and the Crooked Man screening, and there was NO reactions. 

I've seen the trailers played almost all year before every film and the reactions where always just muted. The first one's trailers/marketing had amazing reactions.

[Ryan C]

I didin't want to participate in this whole discourse of is a $100M+ opening for Joker 2 dead because of the mixed reactions it got out of Venice, but now I feel obligated to because I think people are overreacting a bit on this. 

 

@ThomasNicole's right. You guys are really putting too much stock on those reactions from Venice. Honestly, I don't think it matters too much in the grand scheme of things. Yes, reception right now is mixed, but I don't think general audiences (who aren't online all the time) are gonna care about what the people coming out of Venice say. 

 

Interest is still high for the movie, Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn is still a massive plus (despite however she's utilized in the film), the size and scale of the film looks just as big if not more so than the first movie (that'll definitely help make it feel like an event), and the first Joker (though divisive) was a massive success because there was so much curiosity behind it. Some may think different, but for me, I think the curiosity factor is there for this movie. Not in the exact same way that it was for the first Joker, but still in that "what the hell is gonna happen" kind of way. 

 

Also, if we're just going by this year alone, sequels to previously well-liked films have been kicking ass. So I don't think there's much of a reason to expect Joker 2 to open lower than the first one (especially with inflation being accounted for). I think an opening over $100M (I'm thinking around $120M) is still pretty likely to happen. I could be wrong and maybe the stuff I think will sell this sequel to audiences won't do much of anything, but I don't think there's much of a reason to panic just yet. 

 

Oh, and the Rotten Tomatoes score is still fresh by the way. Even if it's close to being rotten, 61% fresh still isn't a bad number and I think it'll stay that way for a while until we get closer to the release date. If it was lower than like 50% than maybe I would be legitmately concerned, but 61% isn't a disaster. 

 

We'll know more about where this is heading by how well it does in its first day of pre-sales tomorrow. 

Edited September 8 by Ryan C

[Johnny Tran]

I don't think reactions will hurt this if the reactions are divisive.  If some people are critical and others think it's good,  people will likely say something along the lines of the critics being "haters" or whatever.  

 

Now, if most people are critical of it?  Then it could certainly nosedive.  I don't think the musical aspect hurts or helps,  it's based on execution. I think Lady Gaga does help a bit. 

[Ryan C]

4 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I don't think reactions will hurt this if the reactions are divisive.  If some people are critical and others think it's good,  people will likely say something along the lines of the critics being "haters" or whatever.  

 

Now, if most people are critical of it?  Then it could certainly nosedive.  I don't think the musical aspect hurts or helps,  it's based on execution. I think Lady Gaga does help a bit. 

 

Honestly, even though I don't think the divisive reactions will hurt the film on opening weekend, I think it will absolutely hurt it in the following weeks. 

 

If the movie is really as daring and as divisive as these reactions make it out to be, then this isn't holding like the first Joker did. That one had amazing holds for a comic-book movie that was well-liked, but certainly divisive and not crowdpleasing in the way that a usual comic-book movie is. 

 

This one (unless a miracle happens) is probably gonna take a 60%+ drop in weekend two and unlike the first one, it'll have to deal with heavy competition like Terrifier 3, Smile 2, and Venom: The Last Dance. That's gonna potentially keep this sequel from crossing $300M domestically or make as much worldwide as the first movie. 

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, Ryan C said:

 

Honestly, even though I don't think the divisive reactions will hurt the film on opening weekend, I think it will absolutely hurt it in the following weeks. 

 

If the movie is really as daring and as divisive as these reactions make it out to be, then this isn't holding like the first Joker did. That one had amazing holds for a comic-book movie that was well-liked, but certainly divisive and not crowdpleasing in the way that a usual comic-book movie is. 

 

This one (unless a miracle happens) is probably gonna take a 60%+ drop in weekend two and unlike the first one, it'll have to deal with heavy competition like Terrifier 3, Smile 2, and Venom: The Last Dance. That's gonna potentially keep this sequel from crossing $300M domestically or make as much worldwide as the first movie. 

Terrified 3 (????) and Smile 2 aren't heavy competition and Venom 3 won't be out for another month after Joker 2. The first Joker easily faced more competition (still not much) than that if you look at all the 2019 October releases.

[TomThomas]

5 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

This one (unless a miracle happens) is probably gonna take a 60%+ drop in weekend two and unlike the first one, it'll have to deal with heavy competition like Terrifier 3, Smile 2, and Venom: The Last Dance. That's gonna potentially keep this sequel from crossing $300M domestically or make as much worldwide as the first movie. 

Terrifier 3 is a heavy competition? Lol.

[justnumbers]

Terrified 3 weekend will a circus