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Joker: Folie a Deux | October 4, 2024 | Lady Gaga is Harley Quinn in this 200M+ musical sequel

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Ryan C Sleeper Hit

Ryan C

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Just now, lorddemaxus said:

Terrified 3 (????) and Smile 2 aren't heavy competition and Venom 3 won't be out for another month after Joker 2. The first Joker easily faced more competition (still not much) than that if you look at all the 2019 October releases.

 

Ok, maybe Terrifier 3 wasn't a good one to bring up, but I still do think that and Smile 2 (because of the R-rating) is stronger competition than what the first Joker had. That one had to contend with either family titles (Maleficent 2 and The Addams Family) or stuff like Gemini Man that didn't make much of a splash. Even when it did face big R-rated competition like Terminator: Dark Fate, it still put up impressive holds. 

 

Joker 2 not only has two possible R-rated breakouts coming after its opening, but another big fanboy-driven comic-book movie coming out at the end of the month. 

 

Maybe these movies won't affect Joker 2 that much, but I wouldn't be shocked if they hurt the movie's legs. Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

 

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lorddemaxus Global Phenomenon

lorddemaxus

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4 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Ok, maybe Terrifier 3 wasn't a good one to bring up, but I still do think that and Smile 2 (because of the R-rating) is stronger competition than what the first Joker had. That one had to contend with either family titles (Maleficent 2 and The Addams Family) or stuff like Gemini Man that didn't make much of a splash. Even when it did face big R-rated competition like Terminator: Dark Fate, it still put up impressive holds. 

 

Joker 2 not only has two possible R-rated breakouts coming after its opening, but another big fanboy-driven comic-book movie coming out at the end of the month. 

 

Maybe these movies won't affect Joker 2 that much, but I wouldn't be shocked if they hurt the movie's legs. Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

 

Joker also had Zombieland 2 open on its 3rd weekend. Horror doesn’t bring out the same demo as Joker did even if rated R. If Joker 2 has bad legs, it’s going to be because no one wants to watch it, not because people are choosing to watch these other movies over Joker 2.

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emoviefan Box Office Gold

emoviefan

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9 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Ok, maybe Terrifier 3 wasn't a good one to bring up, but I still do think that and Smile 2 (because of the R-rating) is stronger competition than what the first Joker had. That one had to contend with either family titles (Maleficent 2 and The Addams Family) or stuff like Gemini Man that didn't make much of a splash. Even when it did face big R-rated competition like Terminator: Dark Fate, it still put up impressive holds. 

 

Joker 2 not only has two possible R-rated breakouts coming after its opening, but another big fanboy-driven comic-book movie coming out at the end of the month. 

 

Maybe these movies won't affect Joker 2 that much, but I wouldn't be shocked if they hurt the movie's legs. Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

 

I say this as somebody who is not a Horror movie person but is the Terrifier franchise something that has broken out past anybody but the most gore hound horror freaks.  Seems like this will be no different than Maxxine compared to Pearl and X if even that.

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HummingLemon496 Box Office Gold

HummingLemon496

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Joker also had Zombieland 2 open on its 3rd weekend. Horror doesn’t bring out the same demo as Joker did even if rated R. If Joker 2 has bad legs, it’s going to be because no one wants to watch it, not because people are choosing to watch these other movies over Joker 2.

For real lmao, competition is always used as an excuse when a movie crashes. I've lost count of the number of times I've heard that Solo bombed because of competition with Infinity War, a movie that released a month before and wasn't even making $20M on the weekend solo released. 

Edited by HummingLemon496
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TomThomas Sleeper Hit

TomThomas

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2 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I say this as somebody who is not a Horror movie person but is the Terrifier franchise something that has broken out past anybody but the most gore hound horror freaks.  Seems like this will be no different than Maxxine compared to Pearl and X if even that.

Yeah, I didn't watch any Terrifier, I'm not target audience despite R rating.

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Ryan C Sleeper Hit

Ryan C

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11 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

For real lmao, competition is always used as an excuse when a movie crashes. I've lost count of the number of times I've heard that Solo bombed because of competition with Infinity War, a movie that released a month before and wasn't even making $20M on the weekend solo released. 

 

Just to clarify, I don't think Joker 2 is gonna crash because of exclusively competition. That'll be because audiences were either mixed on it or just straight up didn't like it at all. 

 

I just bring up competition because it can be a factor (even a small one) onto why a movie doesn't make as much as it should. Even with what you brought up with Solo: A Star Wars Story, yeah it flopped for plenty of other reasons that weren't competition based, but it still came out a week after Deadpool 2. It's not the main reason why it flopped (people really need to do more research), but putting a Star Wars movie that wasn't guaranteed to be an instant smash hit in the summer and with much bigger competition than any of the other Star Wars movies had in December didn't help. 

 

I don't use competition as the sole main reason why any given movie bombs, but I use it as a possible factor onto why a movie dropped so big or why it did significantly less than expected. 

 

 

 

Edited by Ryan C
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thajdikt Box Office Gold

thajdikt

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Here is why Joker 2 is easily a $100M+ opening imo:

 

- It’s a sequel to one helluva received sequel (best picture nominee?, 8.4 IMDb, 3.9 Letterboxd)

- Joker himself is a insanely popular character and I would argue he’s not far behind Batman these datys

- The first opened to what ? 90M? Inflation alone takes that well over 100M no?

- Lady Gaga

- Harley Quinn

- Superhero fatigue ain’t a thing 

- A bad reception is more likely to hurt the movie in the long run then OW.

- I simply disagree with the hype isn’t there. How do you measure that? It has pretty strong engagement on X and good views on trailer. I don’t buy that the hype is less than it was in 2019 tbh. 

- As @ThomasNicole said, the reception from  Venice and the effect it can have is highly overestimated by people here.

- Even bad received movies can blow up the box office. I can’t imagine plenty of people that loved the first one won’t check it out even if it alienates a lot of that crowd. 
 

 

it’s a no brainer for $100M+ imo. Shouldn’t even be close 
 

 

Edited by thajdikt
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