Weekdays (12/16-12/19) Thread.

[charlie Jatinder]

J2 3.3

F2 1.45

Edited December 17, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[JB33]

1 minute ago, Jedi Jat said:

J2 3.3

F2 1.45

Huh....

 

Didn't expect that for Jumanji. Yet, the Frozen number is well above what I expected.

[charlie Jatinder]

@a2k my projections are now pointing to $170mn  absolute downer last two days.

Spoiler

Date	Day	Gross	% +/- YD / LW*		GTD	Week	Change
13 Dec 2019	Fri	$19.72			$19.72
14 Dec 2019	Sat	$23.61	19.73%		$43.33
15 Dec 2019	Sun	$15.92	-32.57%		$59.25	$59.25
16 Dec 2019	Mon	$3.34	-79.00%		$62.59
17 Dec 2019	Tue	$5.52	65.00%		$68.11
18 Dec 2019	Wed	$3.03	-45.00%		$71.14
19 Dec 2019	Thu	$2.52	-17.00%		$73.66	$73.66
20 Dec 2019	Fri	$4.41	75.00%	-77.65%	$78.07
21 Dec 2019	Sat	$5.73	30.00%	-75.74%	$83.80
22 Dec 2019	Sun	$4.87	-15.00%	-69.41%	$88.67	$15.01	-74.67%
23 Dec 2019	Mon	$3.41	-30.00%	1.96%	$92.08
24 Dec 2019	Tue	$3.24	-5.00%	-41.30%	$95.31
25 Dec 2019	Wed	$5.18	60.00%	70.77%	$100.49
26 Dec 2019	Thu	$6.22	20.00%	146.90%	$106.71	$33.05	-55.13%
27 Dec 2019	Fri	$5.91	-5.00%	34.03%	$112.62
28 Dec 2019	Sat	$6.20	5.00%	8.26%	$118.82
29 Dec 2019	Sun	$4.96	-20.00%	1.89%	$123.78	$17.07	13.76%
30 Dec 2019	Mon	$3.82	-23.00%	12.08%	$127.60
31 Dec 2019	Tue	$4.01	5.00%	23.88%	$131.61
1 Jan 2020	Wed	$5.21	30.00%	0.65%	$136.83
2 Jan 2020	Thu	$2.87	-45.00%	-53.87%	$139.70	$32.98	-0.20%
3 Jan 2020	Fri	$3.59	25.00%	-39.30%	$143.28
4 Jan 2020	Sat	$4.84	35.00%	-21.96%	$148.12
5 Jan 2020	Sun	$3.00	-38.00%	-39.52%	$151.12	$11.43	-33.06%
6 Jan 2020	Mon	$0.90	-70.00%	-76.44%	$152.02
7 Jan 2020	Tue	$1.31	45.00%	-67.46%	$153.33
8 Jan 2020	Wed	$0.72	-45.00%	-86.23%	$154.05
9 Jan 2020	Thu	$0.67	-7.00%	-76.72%	$154.71	$15.02	-54.47%
10 Jan 2020	Fri	$1.40	110.00%	-60.89%	$156.12
11 Jan 2020	Sat	$2.45	75.00%	-49.30%	$158.57
12 Jan 2020	Sun	$1.55	-37.00%	-48.49%	$160.12	$5.40	-52.72%
13 Jan 2020	Mon	$0.42	-73.00%	-53.64%	$160.53
14 Jan 2020	Tue	$0.67	60.00%	-48.84%	$161.20
15 Jan 2020	Wed	$0.37	-45.00%	-48.84%	$161.57
16 Jan 2020	Thu	$0.33	-9.00%	-49.94%	$161.90	$7.19	-52.13%
17 Jan 2020	Fri	$0.70	110.00%	-49.94%	$162.60
18 Jan 2020	Sat	$1.26	80.00%	-48.51%	$163.87
19 Jan 2020	Sun	$0.88	-30.00%	-42.79%	$164.75	$2.85	-47.24%
20 Jan 2020	Mon	$0.71	-20.00%	69.51%	$165.46
21 Jan 2020	Tue	$0.32	-55.00%	-52.32%	$165.78
22 Jan 2020	Wed	$0.19	-40.00%	-47.99%	$165.97
23 Jan 2020	Thu	$0.19	0.00%	-42.85%	$166.16	$4.26	-40.77%
24 Jan 2020	Fri	$0.46	140.00%	-34.68%	$166.62
25 Jan 2020	Sat	$0.92	100.00%	-27.42%	$167.54
26 Jan 2020	Sun	$0.57	-38.00%	-35.72%	$168.10	$1.94	-31.79%
27 Jan 2020	Mon	$0.13	-78.00%	-82.32%	$168.23
28 Jan 2020	Tue	$0.19	55.00%	-39.11%	$168.42
29 Jan 2020	Wed	$0.13	-35.00%	-34.04%	$168.55
30 Jan 2020	Thu	$0.13	5.00%	-30.74%	$168.68	$2.52	-40.79%
31 Jan 2020	Fri	$0.30	130.00%	-33.62%	$168.99
1 Feb 2020	Sat	$0.62	105.00%	-31.97%	$169.61
2 Feb 2020	Sun	$0.28	-55.00%	-50.62%	$169.89	$1.21	-37.81%
3 Feb 2020	Mon	$0.07	-75.00%	-43.89%	$169.96
4 Feb 2020	Tue	$0.11	55.00%	-43.89%	$170.07
5 Feb 2020	Wed	$0.07	-40.00%	-48.20%	$170.13
6 Feb 2020	Thu	$0.06	-10.00%	-55.60%	$170.19	$1.51	-40.03%

 

[a2k]

I hope this is an Asgardian riddle where 3 means 4

 

Last year Monday Dec 17

Spoiler

		Movie	Distr	Gross	%YD	%LW	Thr	Per Thr	Total Gross	D
1	(1)	Spider-Man: Into The Spid…	Sony Pictures	$2,765,829	-71%		3,813	$725	$38,129,205	4
2	N	They Shall Not Grow Old	Warner Bros.	$2,327,451			1,122	$2,074	$2,327,451	1
3	(2)	The Mule	Warner Bros.	$1,858,027	-61%		2,588	$718	$19,367,458	4
4	(3)	Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch	Universal	$1,027,175	-72%	+15%	3,759	$273	$240,490,550	39
5	(5)	Mortal Engines	Universal	$687,940	-65%		3,103	$222	$8,247,790	4
6	(4)	Ralph Breaks The Internet	Walt Disney	$634,745	-78%	-26%	3,575	$178	$154,784,641	27
7	(6)	Creed II	MGM	$543,981	-63%	-29%	3,107	$175	$105,414,041	27
8	(7)	Bohemian Rhapsody	20th Century…	$524,845	-59%	-5%	2,213	$237	$181,137,224	46
9	(8)	Fantastic Beasts: The Cri…	Warner Bros.	$430,155	-64%	-27%	2,606	$165	$152,223,404	32
10	(9)	Instant Family	Paramount Pi…	$360,386	-66%	-19%	2,860	$126	$60,648,727	32
11	(10)	Green Book	Universal	$321,475	-59%	-24%	1,215	$265	$24,976,471	32
12	(12)	The Favourite	Fox Searchlight	$309,003	-58%	+105%	441	$701	$7,084,390	25
13	(11)	Once Upon a Deadpool	20th Century…	$227,312	-71%		1,566	$145	$322,685,858	214
14	(15)	The Possession of Hannah …	Sony Pictures	$154,202	-54%	-47%	1,307	$118	$14,063,921	18
15	(13)	Widows	20th Century…	$148,651	-59%	-54%	1,228	$121	$41,033,508	32
-	(-)	A Star is Born	Warner Bros.	$142,144	-54%	-45%	842	$169	$199,320,242	74
-	(14)	Robin Hood	Lionsgate	$136,077	-62%	-56%	1,720	$79	$29,935,941	27

 

Edited December 17, 2019 by a2k

[a2k]

24 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

@a2k my projections are now pointing to $170mn  absolute downer last two days.

 

Total shock of a Monday. 6.6 would have surprised me less.

 

10 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Okay, good. For a second I was wondering if I was the only one shocked by the Jumanji number.

 

wishfully

Spoiler

Weekday	Date	Gross	% Hold	Cume
Fri	13 Dec 19	19.7		19.7
Sat	14 Dec 19	23.6	19.8	43.3
Sun	15 Dec 19	15.9	-32.6	59.2	59.2	weekend1
Mon	16 Dec 19	3.3	-79.2	62.5
Tue	17 Dec 19	5.8	75.8	68.3
Wed	18 Dec 19	3.6	-37.9	71.9
Thu	19 Dec 19	3.3	-8.3	75.2	16	mon-thu
Fri	20 Dec 19	6	81.8	81.2
Sat	21 Dec 19	9.4	56.7	90.6
Sun	22 Dec 19	8.1	-13.8	98.7	23.5	weekend2

 

Edited December 17, 2019 by a2k

[ChiSoxRox]

Pleased to see Frozen still well over a million. While its current number is certainly already impressive I would love to see it leg out into the high 400s.

[JB33]

4 minutes ago, a2k said:

Total shock of a Monday. 6.6 would have surprised me less.

Okay, good. For a second I was wondering if I was the only one shocked by the Jumanji number.

[John Marston]

Family movies dropped somewhat harshly last time calendar was like this 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2013-12-16/

[Cooper Legion]

This actually makes sense. Look at Mondays of J2’s run, played like kids animation or even harsher drops.  People don’t remember much since 3/4 of the first Mondays were literally: Christmas Day, New Year’s Day, MLK Day.    
 

In exchange, gets really big Fri bumps from school day Thurs. The 110-140s in Jat’s sheet look really timid to me, thinking more 180-220 range on normal Fri’s. And more than 75% on 20th, maybe closer +100

 

Edit: @narniadis, great minds...

Edited December 17, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[DAJK]

Wait, we're really expecting Jumanji to finish with sub-175M now?

[keysersoze123]

Suddenly F2 is developing F1 legs. That drop is amazing. Just 76% drop for a kids flick is amazing. I just checked F2(did not even track yesterday). Weekly drop is just 18% at MTC1 !!!!

 

I am seeing 78.5% drop for Jumanji at MTC1. That would mean 3.43m monday. Way below what I was thinking this morning.

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Wait, we're really expecting Jumanji to finish with sub-175M now?

No. I’ll have my weekly recap up soon, but just for worst case scenario:

1.3x OW on Thursday 

62% drop & weekass 6x 2nd weekend multi gives 3.58x total multi for 212

Edited December 17, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[narniadis]

Its only a little harsher than normal for the kind of film? I mean the quirk of Spidey and Grinch last year hide the normal drop that Ralph had. 

I mean, would have liked to have seen 4m but its Tuesday will be 75%+ so it balances out. 

 

Jedis chart is also treating it like a weird mixed film instead of the family film its playing as so far. Definitely crossing 250m with ease. 

 

@Arendelle Legion got sidetracked and missed your post so yeah on same thought. Would be really surprised if it didnt aim for a mid 80s% or so. Between the ticket deals and cheap Tuesday in some places. 

that being said, cant remember if tomorrow is when Cinemark pulls their cheaps until post holiday or not. 

Edited December 17, 2019 by narniadis

[narniadis]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Suddenly F2 is developing F1 legs. That drop is amazing. Just 76% drop for a kids flick is amazing. I just checked F2(did not even track yesterday). Weekly drop is just 18% at MTC1 !!!!

 

I am seeing 78.5% drop for Jumanji at MTC1. That would mean 3.43m monday. Way below what I was thinking this morning.

Frozens drop is consistent with other animated films on this time table and with Ralph last year. Same with Jumanji  - it played like a new release family film all weekend so not sure why the surprise at a family film type drop. Was never going to mirror Hobbit and such with mid 60s%.

[Cooper Legion]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Suddenly F2 is developing F1 legs. That drop is amazing. Just 76% drop for a kids flick is amazing. I just checked F2(did not even track yesterday). Weekly drop is just 18% at MTC1 !!!!

Similar in SK

[Cooper Legion]

Weekend thread is dead, so I'll just put this here since I finished so late. 

 

Dec 9 - 15 Week Recap -- Jumanji Sequel Retains Care and Heart of Previous Entry, Rocks the Box Office, and Will Soon be in the Black

 

Spoiler

 

For the next couple of weeks movie’s drops and legs will be governed very heavily by the calendar details of winter break. So all comps will, at minimum, be from the same weekend relative to winter break, which is one weekend before in this case. Starting next week, preferably from a year where Christmas Eve, Christmas, and NYE/NY are on the same days of the week, although that leaves a very small sample space for recent films. As far as I can tell from dailies, winter break started on:
Dec 24, 2018 ; Dec 18, 2017 ; Dec 19, 2016 ; Dec 21, 2015 ; Dec 22, 2014 ; Dec 23, 2013 ; Dec 24, 2012
And for future purposes, the only 21st century years that exactly match the 2019 calendar are 2013 and 2002. Stupid leap years.

Openers

• Jumanji: The Next Level surprised many with a 59M opening, though it’s difficult to compare directly to the original’s Wednesday winter break opening. It’s safe to say that it won’t come close to the reboot’s insane legs, but with early indicators of reception looking solid it should be able to retain a decent % of its total business. Interestingly nothing of a decent size dared open there in 2015, 2016, or 2017 thanks to SW. In 2014 the Hobbit finale opened on a Wednesday. So the closest comps seem to be Hobbit 1 (gives 212.2M), Hobbit 2 (gives 208M), and Spider-man: Into the Spider-verse (gives 319M). I’m going to start at a very wide 220-300M, as we’ll have to see how it can weather TROS before we have that much of an idea.

• Richard Jewell flopped with a debut in the 4s vs an expectation of 10 or low teens. I’m not going to look at it too closely, but reception is alright and with the genre and reception is should leg okayish.

• Black Christmas flopped with a debut in the 4s vs an expectation of 10 or low teens. Given some truly awful reception and Chrismas not exactly synergizing with horror, I bet it misses 10M. The production budget at least is small, so if they kept P&A in check it won’t be too awful financially.

Holdovers

• Frozen II pulled in a 28.3M week. Following the weekly multipliers of: Ralph Breaks the Internet (467M), Coco (448M), Moana (484M). So 450-485M seems right for now. Also just to demonstrate the absurdity of Frozen 1’s legs, the same weekly multiplier would give Frozen II a 585M finish.

• Knives Out has been holding well with a 15.3M week. Creed still looks like the best comp, and gives 110M after taking a 50% dive next weekend from TFA. Some looser comparison possibilities are Murder on the Orient Express (98M), Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (110M), and Thor:Ragnarok (101M). So let’s go with 100-115M.

• Queen and Slim made 6.1M this week, and I don’t have time for a bunch of comps but I did want to cover it a bit more after missing last week. So far it’s tracked very closely with Allied, but I doubt that will continue, as Allied had a 60% as large or so PTA and took two massive hits of -66.6% and -87.8% due to competition in the next two weeks. Instead I think it should add 1.3-2.2x the week for 41-46M.

• A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood matched Q&S’s 6.1M week, but with the weekend PTA of $1,147 I’m concerned it may follow last year’s Instant Family to some degree and get its TC gutted this weekend. That would lead to a finish of just 56M or so. More optimistically perhaps it can follow Hacksaw Ridge for about 60M. 56-60M

• Finally, Ford vs Ferrari posted a solid 7M week. Its 1.4k PTA could make it tough to keep up theater count as the December releases really get rolling, so this should also add roughly 1.2-2x the week for 106-113M.

Miscellany

• Uncut Gems had a really great limited debut this week. I’m not going to give it the time it deserves because I covered so many other movies above though, sorry Sandler.

Next week we’ve got the last big movie of the decade -- Cats Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. Don’t need much help in the way of comps for that one, but if you have any particular thoughts that you want to make sure I’ve considered when writing it up, feel free to let me know below. Have a great week!

 

 

[Krissykins]

Boring, bring on Cats 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Jumanji: The Next Level	3.66
Frozen 2	1.51
Knives Out	1.01
Richard Jewell	0.53
Ford v. Ferrari	0.44
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood	0.42

 

Special: Gorillaz: Reject False Icons $410k.

[a2k]

feel like over-reacted with the jum3 drop 😜

have calmed down now.

 

Weekday	Date	Gross	% Hold	Cume
Fri	13 Dec 19	19.7		19.7
Sat	14 Dec 19	23.6	19.8	43.3
Sun	15 Dec 19	15.9	-32.6	59.2	59.2	weekend1
Mon	16 Dec 19	3.66	-77.0	62.9
Tue	17 Dec 19	6	63.9	68.9
Wed	18 Dec 19	3.7	-38.3	72.6
Thu	19 Dec 19	3.4	-8.1	76.0	16.76	mon-thu
Fri	20 Dec 19	6	76.5	82.0
Sat	21 Dec 19	9.4	56.7	91.4
Sun	22 Dec 19	8.1	-13.8	99.5	23.5	weekend2

 

23.5 is -60%

99.5 + 23.5*6 = 240.5 // ITSV added 7.6x the 2nd weekend

[Madhuvan]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

feel like over-reacted with the jum3 drop 😜

have calmed down now.

 

Weekday	Date	Gross	% Hold	Cume
Fri	13 Dec 19	19.7		19.7
Sat	14 Dec 19	23.6	19.8	43.3
Sun	15 Dec 19	15.9	-32.6	59.2	59.2	weekend1
Mon	16 Dec 19	3.66	-77.0	62.9
Tue	17 Dec 19	6	63.9	68.9
Wed	18 Dec 19	3.7	-38.3	72.6
Thu	19 Dec 19	3.4	-8.1	76.0	16.76	mon-thu
Fri	20 Dec 19	6	76.5	82.0
Sat	21 Dec 19	9.4	56.7	91.4
Sun	22 Dec 19	8.1	-13.8	99.5	23.5	weekend2

 

23.5 is -60%

99.5 + 23.5*6 = 240.5 // ITSV added 7.6x the 2nd weekend

It will increase 80%+ on friday. Star wars is not that big of threat. Sunday drop is right on line.