Weekend Thread: Thursday Night Preview - 1917 $3.25M | Like a Boss $1M | Just Mercy $800K | Underwater $500K

[Avatree]

12 minutes ago, Europe is my playground said:

There are still people minimizing the blow... Dude, the trilogy lost HALF its audience between 1st and 3rd film: It's BAD, and the sign that Star Wars failed to deliver (for whatever reasons) the ways other franchises (Potter, LOTR...) managed to do.

You're kind of mis-representing the stats. Yes, on an objective $$ level, it grossed half of the first one.

 

However, "half of its audience" - what do you mean by audience? Fans of the franchise?

 

There were a lot of people who saw the Force Awakens who probably weren't intending on seeing another Star Wars film afterwards. Force Awakens was a historic, cultural, once-in-a-generation event. They contributed to those box office numbers, yet I wouldn't describe them as "the franchise's audience".

 

Also, consider repeat viewings. I know it's a small minority but it's not insignificant. Because (as i said) it was a historic event, there were strong core SW fans who saw the film multiple times. (A NEW STAR WARS MOVIE! gotta watch it over and over! this is amazing!!!) - well five films in 4 years later, that incredible uniqueness of a new Star Wars film, is no longer.

If a person watched Force Awakens five times, but only watched TLJ and TROS once or twice, does that count as "losing half your audience", no it doesn't.

 

You could equally say, the Star Wars franchise lost HALF its audience between The Force Awakens and Rogue One the following year.

 

It's a pretty meaningless claim and one that's not very true. The fact that Rise of Skywalker is level with Rogue One kind of shows you that the series is pretty stable and the core audience is still there - even if it hasn't picked up many "new fans" who now want to watch all the new films post-TFA.

[meriodejaneiro]

20 minutes ago, Europe is my playground said:

There are still people minimizing the blow... Dude, the trilogy lost HALF its audience between 1st and 3rd film: It's BAD, and the sign that Star Wars failed to deliver (for whatever reasons) the ways other franchises (Potter, LOTR...) managed to do.

And yet TROS is gonna make more money (and probably more profit due to bigger dom numbers) than any HP (8 movies) and LOTR (6 movies) except for LOTR 3 $1.12B (by short) and HP7.2 $1.34B. 

 

True that after TFA, we all thought SW movies should all be on that level and TLJ-TROS underperformed and left us all disappointed. But after TFA-TLJ-TROS delivered what they delivered ... I think TFA is the clear anomaly in the trend, and what TLJ-TROS made is what we can expect for future SW saga movies (1-1.3B).

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, Avatree said:

 

 

It's a pretty meaningless claim and one that's not very true. The fact that Rise of Skywalker is level with Rogue One kind of shows you that the series is pretty stable and the core audience is still there - even if it hasn't picked up many "new fans" who now want to watch all the new films post-TFA.

that is some spin...

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

13 minutes ago, Europe is my playground said:

Ok, you might be right (I hope you are, seems important for you). 

The film did OK anyway, whether it crosses 100M or not, even though I have to admit that I'm unimpressed with the numbers since day 1.

2nd week-end had me briefly hoping for some kind of breakthru run à la Knives Out, but it doesn't seem like it will happen. 

This sounds more like a you problem than anything else. The budget is 40m, it’s already crossed 100m WW. I’m not sure how much it’ll finish WW but surely over 150m at this rate. 
 

Little Women a female-centric period film that skews older. Knives Out was a fun conceptual mystery thriller with broader, wider appeal. The holds have been outstanding and made it the 2nd biggest original film of the year. It’s not fair to compare these performances. Both are successes 

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

And yet TROS is gonna make more money (and probably more profit due to bigger dom numbers) than any HP (8 movies) and LOTR (6 movies) except for LOTR 3 $1.12B (by short) and HP7.2 $1.34B. 

This is incredibly hard to tell with all that surround those franchise.

 

But doing 1 billion at the box office during the dvd peak around the 2003-2008 window isn't necessarily the same than say in 2016 in term of revenues. A lot of the Lord of the Rings and Potter success were in markets that studio can moneytise quite well.

[Avatree]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

that is some spin...

alternative spin:

 

The Rise of Skywalker earned 250% of the previous SW movie!

 

What a great success!

[The Futurist]

4 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Lmao, this is the dumbest crap I've ever heard. Of course people would have complained about the lack of original movies if Knives Out was an adaptation of a book and therefore not an original movie. 

Sure, Jan.

Continue to pretend you missed my point.

[Europe is my playground]

3 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

This sounds more like a you problem than anything else. The budget is 40m, it’s already crossed 100m WW. I’m not sure how much it’ll finish WW but surely over 150m at this rate. 
 

Little Women a female-centric period film that skews older. Knives Out was a fun conceptual mystery thriller with broader, wider appeal. The holds have been outstanding and made it the 2nd biggest original film of the year. It’s not fair to compare these performances. Both are successes 

I'd say one is a hit, the other an okay performer. Given the pedigree of all involved, the good will of the press, and the release date, I feel like it should have done a bit better.

[Legion Again]

21 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

And yet TROS is gonna make more money (and probably more profit due to bigger dom numbers) than any HP (8 movies) and LOTR (6 movies) except for LOTR 3 $1.12B (by short) and HP7.2 $1.34B. 

Cmon, 2019 vs the 2000s? TROS performance of 30th or so WW is weaker than ALL Potter and Middle-Earth movies, and you know it.

Edited January 12, 2020 by Arendelle Legion

[Barnack]

3 hours ago, Johnny Tran said:

People had the nerve to say the Golden Globes don't matter.  Clearly they do.  This was at least in part a Globes bump for 1917 I don't know how you could spin it otherwise. 

Never heard anyone half serious claiming the Globes have no box office effects, always did read that they tend to be by far the most important award in that regard (because of their timing, has the Oscar tend to only affect the best picture winner)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

8 minutes ago, Europe is my playground said:

I'd say one is a hit, the other an okay performer. Given the pedigree of all involved, the good will of the press, and the release date, I feel like it should have done a bit better.

Yikes 

[Avatree]

16 minutes ago, Europe is my playground said:

I'd say one is a hit, the other an okay performer. Given the pedigree of all involved, the good will of the press, and the release date, I feel like it should have done a bit better.

Little Women is doing really well. If it finishes at 100M domestic... when was the last time a period drama grossed that?

 

Worldwide it will be the highest grossing straight drama film of 2019 that's not a tentpole.

 

It's doing very well. Bear in mind that it still has most major markets still to come, too.

 

 

Edited January 12, 2020 by Avatree

[Barnack]

5 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Lmao, this is the dumbest crap I've ever heard. Of course people would have complained about the lack of original movies if Knives Out was an adaptation of a book and therefore not an original movie. 

 

Well no, doing a Link movie adaptation or doing Kubo and the two strings instead, a bioshock movie or Snowpiercer ..... having success with a classic good cop-bad cop movie are not necessarily more "original" than a Zelda movie, a bioshock movie or a sequel of a good cop-bad cop movie.

 

It is not exactly the same ether, not having to fit homage/fan service into the movie is an important aspect to keep alive, but for the watcher, except for the few that have read the book before end, does watching a movie like Knive Out or The Nice Guy different than Martian, Wolf of Wall Street, Mudbound, Forest Gump, Arrival, District 9, No Country for Old Men, Children of Men, The Departed, City of Gods, Call me by your name ?

 

Was the success of the some of that later group that less impressive ?

 

There is an argument that some original script that are quite the proven and used formula (say everything Max Landis ever did) to be less original than many adapted work (like Apocalypse Now)

[Europe is my playground]

7 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Yikes 

LW 2019 is having the same ok numbers as LW 1994 adjusted for inflation. Not bad, and no breakthrough.

[Europe is my playground]

Little Women is doing really well. If it finishes at 100M domestic... when was the last time a period drama grossed that?

 

Downton Abbey in September

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, Europe is my playground said:

Little Women is doing really well. If it finishes at 100M domestic... when was the last time a period drama grossed that?

 

Downton Abbey in September

 

Abbey missed 100m 

[Europe is my playground]

3 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Abbey missed 100m 

don't be dense, Little women at 105M won't be a bigger success than Downton Abbey at 95 (especially since it costed twice as much)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, Europe is my playground said:

don't be dense, Little women at 105M won't be a bigger success than Downton Abbey at 95 (especially since it costed twice as much)

95 is less than 100m. That’s just a fact. You said it made 100m in your answer and it didn’t. 

Edited January 12, 2020 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[Europe is my playground]

2 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

95 is less than 100m. That’s just a fact. You said it made 100m in your answer and it didn’t. 

Ok I give up. Little Women is an unmitigated triumph and Rise of Skywalker the ultimate proof of the trilogy's consistency.

Anyone who says otherwise is lying.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I wasn’t following BO back then, but I just don’t get why 2B was so “enormously surprising” when looking at how TPM did. And like, isn’t that far and away the obvious comparison for TFA?      

 

People thought the PT had killed the brand and disgruntled fans wouldn't be brought back. Still, I don't see how expectations from months before TFA's release are particularly useful when analyzing TROS's performance. TFA was a huge event that couldn't be replicated, but so was TPM. Yet TLJ had the same % drop as AOTC despite a better hook and TFA's much better reception than TPM, and TROS is dropping again while ROTS had a significant increase (due to a good hook + significantly better buzz) despite the not great reception of AOTC. No matter how you slice it that isn't a healthy trend.