Weekend Thread: Thursday Night Preview - 1917 $3.25M | Like a Boss $1M | Just Mercy $800K | Underwater $500K

[John Marston]

27 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

 

still has Brazil left to to open

[Boxofficerules]

Has Black Christmas finished its run?

[misafeco]

59 minutes ago, a2k said:

4x this weekend more takes F2 to 482 dom. MLK weekend should be strong and Disney could expand with a sing-along version.

5x gives 488. Safe to say 500 is dead.

 

It was around 50% of F1 on Wed&Thu. F1 made another 100M after that point of its run, so F2 needed to basically keep the place until the end of its run. I will be happy with anything over 480M. Will post my revised calculation later.

[narniadis]

Your bias is showing @TwoMisfits..... 

Not a SW fan and havent seen Skywalker which is helping keep my head clear. Considering the fact that 1917 didnt hit 40m+ what may have happened in a few theaters is not a measurable data point that wins your argument. 

Its akin to the proverbial old "the parking lot is packed" jokes that an old poster would make about how films were doing in his neck of the woods. 

 

[TwoMisfits]

So, why dropping TROS to small screens probably drops it out of small-midsize theaters (say 6-12s)...

 

If you have 2 movies - Knives Out/Little Women and TROS, and you can only keep one on your 60 seater screen (b/c you booked 4 new movies last weekend with a 2 week hold, 3 new this upcoming weekend, and you're holding Jumanji no matter what)...

 

You can only show TROS 4x a day at its run time...so you can sell a max of 240 tickets.  You know you only keep 35% revenue on those tickets, and almost no one books the front row, so you'll never sell more than 80% of the tickets/screening to any holdover kept around this long.

 

You can show the other 2 movies 5x a day...so you can sell a max of 300 tickets.  Now, you know you're not likely to sell more than 1/2 the tickets for those seats, so you will see less even with more showings.  But you keep 50% of the revenue.

 

Assuming equal ticket prices ($10 to make it easy)

 

Revenue to the theater - TROS = 240*.8*10*.35 = $672/day

Revenue to the theater - Little Women/KO = 300 *.5 * 10 *.5 = $750/day

 

And maybe you don't sell 50% of those tickets...but maybe you don't sell the max for TROS, either.  The TROS number above is a max possible...and it doesn't require much performance from the other movies to do better for you...or at least break even...

 

And you do have a subscriber base to satisfy, but you don't want movies to hang around that they might watch every day b/c that costs you...like a rabid Star Wars fan might do for TROS...

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, narniadis said:

Your bias is showing @TwoMisfits..... 

Not a SW fan and havent seen Skywalker which is helping keep my head clear. Considering the fact that 1917 didnt hit 40m+ what may have happened in a few theaters is not a measurable data point that wins your argument. 

Its akin to the proverbial old "the parking lot is packed" jokes that an old poster would make about how films were doing in his neck of the woods. 

 

See my previous post, but we'll agree to disagree...right now, 3 new movies are coming next weekend, b/c everything in my area is booking Weathering With You (surprise to see for me, b/c even my Regal is getting it, and they don't do subtitle movies...except this one)...tight market, tight screens, one movie dropping like a rock with a bad contract for theaters...

 

Should be a fun Friday look at theater counts...

[The Futurist]

2 hours ago, sfran43 said:

 

You could have made the exact same film as

Agatha Christie & Hercule Poirot presents : Knives Out

and people would have complained about the lack of original movies.

Yes, that s how original and creative Knives Out was, a big bang of ideas, ex-nihilo.

 

Originality is in the eye of the beholder.

Fact.

Edited January 12, 2020 by The Futurist

[lorddemaxus]

6 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

You could have made the exact same film as

Agatha Christie & Hercule Poirot presents : Knives Out

and people would have complained about the lack of original movies.

Yes, that s how original and creative Knives Out was, a big bang of ideas, ex-nihilo.

 

Originality is in the eye of the beholder.

Fact.

Lmao, this is the dumbest crap I've ever heard. Of course people would have complained about the lack of original movies if Knives Out was an adaptation of a book and therefore not an original movie. 

[cdsacken]

37 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

still has Brazil left to to open

So probably just under 800. Sure as heck way better than doom and gloom after China (self included)

[TalismanRing]

46 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

We are talking TROS theater drop, not Jumanji's...Jumanji will stay over TROS probably at every theater it hasn't already been dropped from...

I know that.  I'm making a comparison.  They're both on about one screen right now with the same PTA.  TROS is dropping harder but Jumanji just dropped 47% and is in 3904 theaters.  If you think TROS's drops and PTA warrants a  2,000+ theater loss than Jumanji would be losing at least 1,500.   But neither will.

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I know that.  I'm making a comparison.  They're both on about one screen right now with the same PTA.  TROS is dropping harder but Jumanji just dropped 47% and is in 3904 theaters.  If you think TROS's drops and PTA warrants a  2,000+ theater loss than Jumanji would be losing at least 1,500.   But neither will.

Agreed no way.

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

If TG were under the BH Umbrella, featuring a girl as lead, it could've the same reception but would end grossing the double, and costing way lower.

I dunno, Blumhouse are having a bit of a crapper recently. That logic didn’t work for Black Christmas.  

3 hours ago, sfran43 said:

 

US the biggest original film of the year! And people try and downplay its success 😂

[Alli]

28 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

You could have made the exact same film as

Agatha Christie & Hercule Poirot presents : Knives Out

and people would have complained about the lack of original movies.

Yes, that s how original and creative Knives Out was, a big bang of ideas, ex-nihilo.

 

Originality is in the eye of the beholder.

Fact.

For people who watched David Suchet's Poirot, KO wasn't something that special. There wasn't much sleuthing done.

[Avatree]

great for 1917. I thought it would be a minor flop a couple months ago, but it's just gone from strength to strength. really strong opening weekend and from the audience reactions & continued good press it'll receive through to the oscars, it should do really well. 150M+ should be on the cards?

[kitik]

Now would be a good time to remind folks that posting your top ten list for the next 365 days over in the Most Anticipated Films thread is pretty much picking the 10 movies in 2020 that you're looking forward to the most.

 

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/667-box-office-theorys-most-anticipated-films/page/391/#comments

 

 

[Zakiyyah6]

Very strong wide release opening for 1917 and so-so openings for the other films. Except Underwater which bombed.

 

Jumanji is doing just fine. It was never going to match the last film. It's a win for Sony. 

 

Star Wars will make money for Disney but the franchise is in rough shape on the big screen. It needs to be fixed. 

 

Knives Out continues to do great. I don't know how much profit FvF will bring in though. 

Edited January 12, 2020 by Zakiyyah6

[DAJK]

Really hoping 1917 can pull a 30M+ 4-day next weekend (I don't see it being impossible to be honest, especially if it gets a lot of Oscar nominations). Either way, I think this is destined to finish above 130 at least. 

 

Like a Boss looked like garbage, and is probably going to fizzle out somewhere just above 25M. Underwater should have done better (I still kinda want to see it) but it's probably going to end with something like 17M domestic, 60M worldwide. 

 

Decent start for Just Mercy; doing better than On the Basis of Sex at least. Let's see if it can reach 40M. The fact that it won't get any Oscar love could hurt it, but audiences seem to really be loving it. 

 

Also I still LOVE Knives Out's run. Going to end above 150 (160?) is amazing. Hollywood, PLEASE MAKE MORE GOOD ORIGINAL MOVIES!

 

Jumanji did better than a lot of us were expecting. Probably finish close to 300M DOM, 800M WW (I didn't really like the movie, but this sorta guarantees a third one, which could be interesting given the set-up at the end of TNL). 

[TalismanRing]

14 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Very strong wide release opening for 1917 and so-so openings for the other films. Except Underwater which bombed.

 

Jumanji is doing just fine. It was never going to match the last film. It's a win for Sony. 

 

Star Wars will make money for Disney but the franchise is in rough shape on the big screen. It needs to be fixed. 

 

Knives Out continues to do great. I don't know how much profit FvF will bring in though. 

Not much but it might be the only Fox proper film that won't bring in a loss except for the religious film Breakthrough. Searchlight had Ready or Not and JoJo

 

[Johnny Tran]

People had the nerve to say the Golden Globes don't matter.  Clearly they do.  This was at least in part a Globes bump for 1917 I don't know how you could spin it otherwise. 

[Cappoedameron]

Who could have predicted 5 years ago that the finale of the Skywalker Saga would struggle to cross the billion dollar mark, and no Bob Iger this is not franchise fatigue.