The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[SpiderByte]

24 minutes ago, Human said:

Yes.  Many people hate movies without seeing them.  My brother hates movies based on their plot summaries on wikipedia.

Nobody's saying that people hate Blue Beetle and that Blue Beetles future appearances will doom any movie he's in. In fact Blue Beetle, despite being the lowest grossing, is the most liked of DCs last several releases.

Edited October 11, 2023 by SpiderByte

[WorkingonaName]

29 minutes ago, Human said:

Yes.  Many people hate movies without seeing them.  My brother hates movies based on their plot summaries on wikipedia.

Based.

[Kon]

13 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Nobody's saying that people hate Blue Beetle and that Blue Beetles future appearances will doom any movie he's in. In fact Blue Beetle, despite being the lowest grossing, is the most liked of DCs last several releases.

 

I would said Blue Bettle is the less disliked of DCs last several releases. It doesn't seem many people really care about that movie.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Kon

[JustLurking]

Blue Beetle definitely won't doom any further releases he's in since I would be willing to bet there will not be any further releases he's in

[SpiderByte]

10 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

I would said Blue Bettle is the less disliked of DCs last several releases. It doesn't seem many people really care about that movie.

Thats still very different from saying people will boycott any movie Blue Beetle is in

[Zakiyyah6]

If The Marvels fails Disney will do with Captain Marvel what WB did with Snyder's Superman and what Disney themselves did with Hulk. They will transition the character into a supporting role. 

[AN9815]

1 hour ago, Willowra said:

@SpiderByte @AN9815 Do you think they would make Captain Marvel 3 if this makes less than 300m WW or even 400m WW, as tracking suggests? She won't get a sequel. Less than 300m would mean that the majority of MCU fans can't stand Captain Marvel; they either hate her or don't care about her, so unless she leads Avengers 5, this would be the last movie being led by Captain Marvel in the MCU, and if she leads Avengers 5, then Avengers 5 will meet the same fate as The Marvels. So either this movie will end Captain Marvel's run in the MCU or Captain Marvel will make sure that Avengers 5 does less than 200 DOM total.

That is a good question. My comment on the other thread was more sarcastic giving all of the pessimism surrounding this movie. Before giving my opinion on your question I'd like to say that I don't have any problem with this movie, I think it looks fun and great, also I love Brie Larson as Captain Marvel.

 

With that being said I will answer your question. If this does make less than $400m WW I don't think they will make Captain Marvel 3. However, I don't think the character will disapear completely. She will probably get the same treatment as Hulk in phases 1-3 (yes I am aware that was because of Universal owning the Hulk character). She will probably appear in team up movies and maybe in a sequel to a solo film that is not hers (similar to Hulk in Ragnarok or Iron Man in Homecoming). 

 

As for how this will affect the next Avengers movies. I don't think The Marvels box office will have an effect on Kang Dynasty and Secret Wars. What will make or break those movies are the future 2024-2025 slate and how those movies are received. I think the MCU is back to Phase 1 where they had to earn their trust with each movie. IMO they cannot handle another Quantumania level of reception. I don't think this movie will be bad (let's wait and see) but if Deadpool 3 or Fantastic 4 are poorly received then they have a huge problem that will massively affect the Avengers movies. I think 2024 movies will underperform (minus Deadpool 3 if it is a cameofest with great reviews) compared to what they could have done even if reviews are great. However if they manage to get things back on track then the Avengers movies will have no problem. 

Edited October 11, 2023 by AN9815

[PlatnumRoyce]

2 hours ago, Kon said:

Connecting this movie to Disney + series seems bizarre now, but I assume they have good expectative for Ms. Marvel and Secret Invasion.

I really don't think it's bizarre. Giving us a Sam Jackson tv spinoff seems pretty similar to other prestige D+ shows like Falcon and Loki and Disney wanted to elevate D+ content by tying it into major ongoing works (and set up a young avengers project for Ms. Marvel). It failed to elevate the project but the bet makes sense. 

 

 

 

5 hours ago, JustLurking said:

Ahsoka skews more US than Loki will for sure so I wouldn't expect it to keep that ratio, could even see it a bit under Ahsoka in the US.

Yeah, that makes sense. On the other hand, I see Ahsoka's first 3 weeks on Nielsen went 829/487/459 mil minutes or 13.8/8.1/7.7M hours (for the graph) so it looks vaguely similar to hawkeye without accounting for any release date/number of episodes stuff as @Porthos flagged.  I do think we can presumptively say Loki S2 is doing better than Ahsoka by a decent bit. 

 

[TwoMisfits]

12 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

And yet Loki is doing great numbers, even without promo due to the strike. So I don't think it's as simple as "this one did bad (or in this ones case, might do bad in the future), so all the rest are doomed to do bad too"

 

Loki is "free" - this movie is $15/20 per person.  Free sells a lot more...

[Willowra]

53 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

That is a good question. My comment on the other thread was more sarcastic giving all of the pessimism surrounding this movie. Before giving my opinion on your question I'd like to say that I don't have any problem with this movie, I think it looks fun and great, also I love Brie Larson as Captain Marvel.

 

With that being said I will answer your question. If this does make less than $400m WW I don't think they will make Captain Marvel 3. However, I don't think the character will disapear completely. She will probably get the same treatment as Hulk in phases 1-3 (yes I am aware that was because of Universal owning the Hulk character). She will probably appear in team up movies and maybe in a sequel to a solo film that is not hers (similar to Hulk in Ragnarok or Iron Man in Homecoming). 

 

As for how this will affect the next Avengers movies. I don't think The Marvels box office will have an effect on Kang Dynasty and Secret Wars. What will make or break those movies are the future 2024-2025 slate and how those movies are received. I think the MCU is back to Phase 1 where they had to earn their trust with each movie. IMO they cannot handle another Quantumania level of reception. I don't think this movie will be bad (let's wait and see) but if Deadpool 3 or Fantastic 4 are poorly received then they have a huge problem that will massively affect the Avengers movies. I think 2024 movies will underperform (minus Deadpool 3 if it is a cameofest with great reviews) compared to what they could have done even if reviews are great. However if they manage to get things back on track then the Avengers movies will have no problem. 

She won't get a Hulk type treatment because marvel doesn't make movies like that. In marvel movies a female character either gets 1st or 2nd billing/lead or they reduce that female character to a supporting character like Black Widow. And no one cares about supporting characters. Iron Man had a cameo type supporting role in homecoming & Hulk was in Ragnarok because they couldn't make solo hulk movie, Captain Marvel won't get such treatment. So Unless Captain Marvel is 1st or 2nd lead in Avengers movies her journey in MCU will be over if The Marvels does less than 400m. And her being 2nd lead in Avengers movies won't excite her haters as they are already not much excited about new Captain America & upon that when they get a character they can't stand- Game over for Avengers.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Willowra

[SpiderByte]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Loki is "free" - this movie is $15/20 per person.  Free sells a lot more...

It is, by definition, not free. In fact very soon a month of Disney+ will be above the average ticket price.

Edited October 11, 2023 by SpiderByte

[Bob Train]

This movie wouldn't have even passed The Flash WW if they kept it in July.

[Valonqar]

Eh, future of a character doesn't always depend on the boxoffice. In a hypothetical scenario where TM fails, what really matters is why it failed. Maybe it didn't fail because of CM but because of the other 2 characters since there was no interest in them prior to release? Maybe audience wanted solo Carol instead of a team movie? or maybe the team is fine but the movie failed because Marvel picked the story that simply wasn't interesting?

 

They took the title from CM, they took the clear lead status from CM, ran trailers and posters as equality trio show, they decided to make CM second movie a team with characters who were completely untested when the decision was made and production already under way, but somehow potential failure is only CM's fault? I don't buy that.

 

 

[Madhuvan]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Eh, future of a character doesn't always depend on the boxoffice. In a hypothetical scenario where TM fails, what really matters is why it failed. Maybe it didn't fail because of CM but because of the other 2 characters since there was no interest in them prior to release? Maybe audience wanted solo Carol instead of a team movie? or maybe the team is fine but the movie failed because Marvel picked the story that simply wasn't interesting?

 

They took the title from CM, they took the clear lead status from CM, ran trailers and posters as equality trio show, they decided to make CM second movie a team with characters who were completely untested when the decision was made and production already under way, but somehow potential failure is only CM's fault? I don't buy that.

 

 

Yup this is not fault of CM when that character is the only one selling whatever we are seeing

 

 

Major complain from first look was why is Captain Marvel not the lead , everyone took it as offense but we can see the results now. 

 

Now they are trying hard to promote this movie CM led.

[Madhuvan]

Anyways all 3 actress/characters are great and deserved better positioning 

 

Hopefully movie is good and we don't have to care about Box office much.

[TwoMisfits]

26 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

It is, by definition, not free. In fact very soon a month of Disney+ will be above the average ticket price.

 

It is free for all current subscribers who got in on last year's amazing Black Friday deals or who now get D+ free with their phones or cable service (since Disney just cut that deal with a 9m cable tv subscriber base).  Or who just haven't canceled yet b/c their subs are not up.

 

It's the same as early presales for non-blockbusters being overwhelmingly AMC/Regal unlimited movie subs - these movies are "free" for them b/c they are already paid in...so they don't care as much about quality or price as they do about getting their sub money's worth.

[Willowra]

6 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Eh, future of a character doesn't always depend on the boxoffice. In a hypothetical scenario where TM fails, what really matters is why it failed. Maybe it didn't fail because of CM but because of the other 2 characters since there was no interest in them prior to release? Maybe audience wanted solo Carol instead of a team movie? or maybe the team is fine but the movie failed because Marvel picked the story that simply wasn't interesting?

 

They took the title from CM, they took the clear lead status from CM, ran trailers and posters as equality trio show, they decided to make CM second movie a team with characters who were completely untested when the decision was made and production already under way, but somehow potential failure is only CM's fault? I don't buy that.

 

 

There are evidences that a large number of MCU fans hate Captain Marvel & they're not interested in anything related to Captain Marvel. Low viewership of Secret Invasion & Ms. Marvel is proof of that.

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Yup this is not fault of CM when that character is the only one selling whatever we are seeing

 

 

Major complain from first look was why is Captain Marvel not the lead , everyone took it as offense but we can see the results now. 

 

Now they are trying hard to promote this movie CM led.

 

The team idea isn't bad on its own - many Marvel IPs were essentially team ups in later phases - but they picked completely untested characters to be not just part of the team but equal co-leads to the point that CM title was scrapped. That never happened with lets say Thor Ragnarok (Thor teams up with Hulk but Hulk is not a co-lead and he's an actual popular character), NWH (Strange wasn't even a sidekick while 2 old Spideys didn't appear right from the start) and while Tony was kind of a co-lead in Civil War he's a fuckin Tony Stark not Who McWho. 

 

But then, it's still very early and influencer reactions and reviews aren't out yet. 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Valonqar

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, Willowra said:

There are evidences that a large number of MCU fans hate Captain Marvel & they're not interested in anything related to Captain Marvel. Low viewership of Secret Invasion & Ms. Marvel is proof of that.

 

Sigh. Hating a character generates talk and that's better than complete indifference which greeted the other 2 Marvel girls. Ragetubers didn't bother to watch Ms Marvel even to shit on it every week, something they did with She-Hulk and Rings of Power (hence decent viewership for those shows - hate watch is still a watch and Nielsen picks up on it).

 

Also, blaming Ms Marvel and Secret Invasion flops on CM makes no sense cause CM wasn't a prominent character in either. So a brand new character not intended for Marvel's usual audience (that skews male) is CM fangirl =/= Hulk's and Daredevil's presence on She Hulk that boosted that show's numbers. Likewise, Secret Invasion didn't have CM but Nick Fury himself a popular character so I dunno maybe blame him? Maybe some characters work better as supporting? Or maybe the story sucked and he couldn't save it. Either way, very little to do with CM. yes, they may be spun off CM but she wans't there to make it clear that both were directly connected to her.

[PlatnumRoyce]

22 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Yup this is not fault of CM when that character is the only one selling whatever we are seeing

 

 

Major complain from first look was why is Captain Marvel not the lead , everyone took it as offense but we can see the results now. 

 

Now they are trying hard to promote this movie CM led.

I ~50% agree but I really suspect they were planning on making the initial marketing focus on boosting secondary characters most audience members didn't know about while coming back to more of a CM focus. I think this was likely a dumb move that failed but I doubt there was an intent to sideline CM for full run nearly as much as initial marketing did.

 

9 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Likewise, Secret Invasion didn't have CM but Nick Fury himself a popular character so I dunno maybe blame him?

Are we talking about CM the character or CM the movie? Nick Fury is a significant part of "Captain Marvel" as seen by the first movie and secret invasion.