Best Picture Predictions - 2020

[Rorschach]

My current predictions, based on what I think is most likely locked.

 

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7

2. Nomadland

3. Mank

4. Minari

5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

6. One Night in Miami

7. Promising Young Woman

8. The Father

9. News of the World

10. Sound of Metal

---------------------

11. Judas and the Black Messiah

12. Da 5 Bloods

13. Soul

[Melosh]

Had “soul” been the same exact film but in live action the film would of been one of the front runners of the year. It tells you the way animation is treated in Hollywood.

Edited February 16, 2021 by Melosh

[lorddemaxus]

 

Good for Judas and Sound of Metal, but bad for I'm Thinking of Ending Things and Da 5 Bloods (I think this movie is dead at this point).

[SLAM!]

After notable snubs with golden globes and critics choice, Judas really needed that nomination to stay afloat in the race--yes, Mank and Minari were both ineligible, but Judas easily could've been snubbed like Da 5 Bloods was. Sound of Metal getting in is exciting; Palm Springs is an inspired choice, though chances of it randomly coming through seem unlikely.

 

That nomination for The White Tiger is really exciting! I was really hoping for that to happen! And yeah, if First Cow and I'm Thinking of Ending Things aren't getting through to the WGA even when Nomadland and The Father are ineligible, then that definitely means older voters might find them too weird.

[filmlover]

Da 5 Bloods is looking to be this year's victim of the "peaked too early" curse. June might as well be 5 years ago with everything that's happened in the world since.

[SLAM!]

https://variety.com/2021/film/global/samuel-goldwyn-films-the-man-who-sold-his-skin-u-s-acquisition-oscar-1234909384/

 

Samuel Goldwyn Films buys U.S. rights to The Man Who Sold His Skin, which recently made the shortlist for the Oscar's International category. I think this is notable because Samuel Goldwyn is also the distributor of Another Round, which is positioned as a frontrunner to win this category. Can both films get nominated? Time will tell...

[titanic2187]

Normally by this stage of award season, I would have seen more than half of eventual Oscar best picture nominees. 

 

Unfortunately this year i haven't seen one. I am waiting if cinema in my country can be reopened and allow showing some of the films like normadland, soul.

 

If not, i would have to pirate them......in fact i have pirated few of them, just haven't start watching. 

[filmlover]

So much for this being the year without movies heh.

 

 

This is the highest tally of eligible #Oscars titles in 50 yearshttps://t.co/X5viSDRMza

— The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) February 25, 2021

[titanic2187]

12 hours ago, filmlover said:

So much for this being the year without movies heh.

 

 

This is the highest tally of eligible #Oscars titles in 50 yearshttps://t.co/X5viSDRMza

— The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) February 25, 2021

Yet could be the least talked or seen in 93 years.  

 

Have never seen a so uneventful Oscar since started follow  the race in Hurt Locker year

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

Yet could be the least talked or seen in 93 years.  

 

Have never seen a so uneventful Oscar since started follow  the race in Hurt Locker year

Ratings are going to be in the dumps for all awards shows this year. There will be no red carpets, no star-filled gatherings, there's zero movies that have truly tapped into the zeitgeist. All they can do is salvage the ceremony as much as they can and hope that by the time 2022 gets here things will be mostly back to normal.

[titanic2187]

15 hours ago, filmlover said:

Ratings are going to be in the dumps for all awards shows this year. There will be no red carpets, no star-filled gatherings, there's zero movies that have truly tapped into the zeitgeist. All they can do is salvage the ceremony as much as they can and hope that by the time 2022 gets here things will be mostly back to normal.

Not only the rating of ceremonies but this bunch of nominees will likely be the least talked and seen. 

[Webslinger]

I legit keep forgetting that awards season is actually happening right now. It's the first time since... 2002, I think? ... where I haven't actively followed the race nor done up even a single set of predictions. I don't think it's the movies themselves - I've been seeing most of the big players when they've dropped in their various streaming sources (or a theater, in Nomadland's case), and I'm looking forward to my annual tradition of compiling my personal ballot when my spring break rolls around in a few weeks - but rather that I've been absolutely swamped with my in-person job and just haven't had any time to keep up with the awards scene.

 

So with that context in mind, it just absolutely blows my mind that The Trial of the Chicago 7 is such a major player right now. I liked it a whole lot when I saw it in October (it's currently sitting just outside my top ten for the year, though said top ten has Hamilton and Portrait of a Lady on Fire in it, which I realize may not count in some people's eyes), but there was nothing about it that really screamed major awards frontrunner to me at that time.

[lorddemaxus]

https://www.awardsdaily.com/2021/03/08/producers-guild-announces-nominees/

 

Quote

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Producers: Sacha Baron Cohen, Monica Levinson, Anthony Hines

 

Judas and the Black Messiah
Producers: Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King

 

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Producers: Denzel Washington, Todd Black

 

Mank
Producers: Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski

 

Minari
Producer: Christina Oh

 

Nomadland
Producers: Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao

 

One Night In Miami…
Producers: Jess Wu Calder & Keith Calder, Jody Klein

 

Promising Young Woman
Producers: Josey McNamara, Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell

 

Sound Of Metal
Producers: Bert Hamelinck, Sacha Ben Harroche

 

The Trial of the Chicago 7
Producers: Marc Platt, Stuart Besser

Judas and SoM are in. News of the World, Soul, and Da 5 Bloods are dead, and The Father is close (but I'd say is out if it underperforms in the BAFTAs).

Edited March 8, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Eric Prime]

Take out Borat and there’s our Best Picture lineup. Don’t know if it’s this year they are required to do 10 noms, but if it is...I guess Soul?

[lorddemaxus]

4 minutes ago, Eric and the Last Dragon said:

Take out Borat and there’s our Best Picture lineup. Don’t know if it’s this year they are required to do 10 noms, but if it is...I guess Soul?

I doubt there'd be 10 noms this year but the Father will probably end up getting a lot of support at the BAFTA noms today, so I'd say that's above Soul. But if not, I guess Soul would be the 10th nom.

[lorddemaxus]

Margot Robbie isn't gonna be recognized by the Oscars as a producer it seems (she wasn't nominated for the PGAs). Same with the Plan B guys for Minari. If had any reason to care about Promising Young Woman getting nominated, it would be so that Robbie would get a producing nomination this year. 

[filmlover]

BAFTA noms:

 

2021 BAFTA Film Awards Nominations Unveiled - Variety

[SLAM!]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

BAFTA noms:

 

2021 BAFTA Film Awards Nominations Unveiled - Variety

 

My impressions:

- Promising Young Woman, The Father, and The Mauritanian all get boosts--but snubs for Carey Mulligan, Emerald Fennell, Olivia Colman, and Jodie Foster raise an eyebrow.

- I think Alan Kim has a decent chance to get an Oscar nod thanks to this nomination and his speech at Critics Choice. He's in the top ten now.

- Maria Bakalova and Youn Yuh-Jung should be locks.

- Lee Isaac Chung getting in director when many of the other "prominent contenders" failed to do so--that's very interesting and might bode well.

- Quo Vadis, Aida? gets a significant boost for the International Feature category after the director nod.

- I heard that The One and Only Ivan had a strong showcase with the Oscar voters, and this Bafta nod might be an indicator that the film might be surging at the right time.

- Sound of Metal follows through with the editing win at Critics' Choice, taking another definitive step toward an editing nomination.

- I really hope voters see the Bafta nomination for Dominique Fishback and are like, "yeah, that's a good idea"--and I haven't even seen Judas yet.

- Speaking of Judas, it got cinematography, so that's pretty exciting.

Edited March 9, 2021 by SLAM!

[lorddemaxus]

The main juried categories are pretty much useless precursors here and likely won't impact the race. I still fully expect Carey Mulligan to win the Oscar even if she didn't get nominated here. Awful performance for Tenet and Mank in the tech categories (not juried) and that probably means the former might as well end up missing everything besides VFX and the latter is in the bottom 5 of BP noms.

[filmlover]

Carey Mulligan missing after Promising Young Woman made it into Best Film is mind-boggling.

 

In fact there are a lot of snubs here. It's been pointless trying to predict who will get nominated this whole time because, as the inconsistency among the precursors has made clear, this is no typical awards season.