Fake Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 (edited) But THAT much less? This appeals very much to teens too. As well as to adults who have been waiting for the second weekend.I don't think it drops 20% harder than Alice.40% isn't a big difference when we talk about Friday jumps. The percentage changes significantly with even a small change in average age of the viewers. For example, just this March, Lorax jumped 231% while John Carter jumped only 89%. Edited March 29, 2012 by Fake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 I think you guys are gonna have egg on your face this weekend... you've been singing its impending downfall all week (similar, I might mention, to how you downplayed it all the way until OD as well). We'll see what happens I joined the bandwagon once the tracking was too hard to ignore. I predicted 137 mill. My prediction for it this weekend is strictly unbiased. It opened massively and it has nowhere to go but down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK007 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 20% isn't a big difference when we talk about Friday jumps. The percentage changes significantly with even a small change in average age of the viewers. For example, just this March, Lorax jumped 231% while John Carter jumped only 89%.What kind of comparison is that? Are you seriously comparing the Lorax to John Carter? John Carter skewed really old and its fans are also not the youth who evidently abandoned it. The Lorax is playing exactly like every family and kidpic released outside of summer and winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 I'll say this:Maybe 65% is too high. But with it losing IMAX and the fact that it opened so massively, i think it will fall a minimum of 60% and a maximum of 65%.Fair enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockNrollaDIM Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 20% isn't a big difference when we talk about Friday jumps. The percentage changes significantly with even a small change in average age of the viewers. For example, just this March, Lorax jumped 231% while John Carter jumped only 89%.I didn't mean the Friday jump.. meant overall weekend hold. -46% for Alice vs. -65% projected for THG (from Baumer).Even though they held overall basically identical on weekdays (we'll see after tomorrow). Seems like a very harsh drop to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heretic Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Good number. I'd be happy with anything over 60m this weekend. I think it'll happen...this is getting fantastic WOM and there are still people who want to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 What kind of comparison is that? Are you seriously comparing the Lorax to John Carter? John Carter skewed really old and its fans are also not the youth who evidently abandoned it. The Lorax is playing exactly like every family and kidpic released outside of summer and winter.He's simply pointing out that there are a lot factors that go into Friday increases. The more you appeal to kids, the more of a bump you get. THG is somewhere in between Lorax and JC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Han Cobb Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 40% isn't a big difference when we talk about Friday jumps. The percentage changes significantly with even a small change in average age of the viewers. For example, just this March, Lorax jumped 231% while John Carter jumped only 89%.Yes, but The Lorax is a kids' movie and John Carter is nobody's movie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockNrollaDIM Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I'll be happy with that conservative projection I posted earlier, to -59%. I don't think it will do much worse than that.But I also am not delusional and think it will drop 50% or less and take the record. I'd be ecstatic if it dropped -55% but that will be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockNrollaDIM Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I'll say this:Maybe 65% is too high. But with it losing IMAX and the fact that it opened so massively, i think it will fall a minimum of 60% and a maximum of 65%.Fair enough?Yeah, that's better. But your minimum is around my maximum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
American Eagle Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 This is awful. Is $200M even a possibility now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 This is awful. Is $200M even a possibility now?No. It's being pulled from theaters after tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACCA Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 (edited) But it's not an idictment of the film. This was going to be frontloaded right from the beginning. This opened way bigger than anyone thought it would which means EVERYONE rushed out to see it. There is still a finite amount of people who love this series. It is damn near impossible for it to sustain any kind of massive momentum like some of the loonies here predict it will.Agreed. I think the comparison to Twilight is quite applicable, as both franchises have huge fanbases from the books, with the book fanbase for Hunger I believe being even bigger than that of Twilight.I think because this overachieved on OW, it simply cannot hold very well in terms of legs.No way is this getting close to the 2nd weekend record. I'm thinking a 60-65M weekend coming up at best, possibly lower. Edited March 29, 2012 by ACCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Agreed. I think the comparison to Twilight is quite applicable, as both franchises have huge fanbases from the books, with the book fanbase for Hunger I believe being even bigger than that of Twilight.I think because this overachieved on OW, it simply cannot hold very well in terms of legs.No way is this getting close to the 2nd weekend record. I'm thinking a 60-65M weekend coming up at best, possibly lower.Ok, what's happening? Am I becoming more like you or you like me? Or were we just in disagreeance over Inception? Cause you are making a lot of sense today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 What kind of comparison is that? Are you seriously comparing the Lorax to John Carter? John Carter skewed really old and its fans are also not the youth who evidently abandoned it. The Lorax is playing exactly like every family and kidpic released outside of summer and winter. I am not comparing. I am merely putting the two ends out there. Let's look at the % of audience over 25 years for 1st weekend and first Friday jumps for the March openers. The Lorax - ~20% (32% were over 12 years) / +231% 21 Jump Street - 50% / +122% The Hunger Games - 56% / ? John Carter - 59% / +89% I let the numbers do the talking for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockNrollaDIM Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I am not comparing. I am merely putting the two ends out there. Let's look at the % of audience over 25 years for 1st weekend and first Friday jumps for the March openers. The Lorax - ~20% (32% were over 12 years) / +231% 21 Jump Street - 50% / +122% The Hunger Games - 56% / ? John Carter - 59% / +89% I let the numbers do the talking for themselves. You also used your numbers when downplaying the midnights, and the Friday number, and saying "no way it increases Saturday", but I think the Saturday actual did make you concede a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biggestgeekever Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I don't see how Hunger Games is dropping 65% this weekend, hell, I think even 60% is too high given its performance so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACCA Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Ok, what's happening? Am I becoming more like you or you like me? Or were we just in disagreeance over Inception? Cause you are making a lot of sense today. I think it's a little bit of both . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 I don't see how Hunger Games is dropping 65% this weekend, hell, I think even 60% is too high given its performance so far.It's got a very good chance to drop 60%. It's performance has been nothing out of the ordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 (edited) You also used your numbers when downplaying the midnights, and the Friday number, and saying "no way it increases Saturday", but I think the Saturday actual did make you concede a little. Using the sellout reports I had predicted this:Mids - 20MRest-of-Friday - 38MSaturday - 40M (5-6% jump from rest-of-Friday)Midnights were exactly what I predicted (which is where the majority of sellouts do happen on Wednesdays). Rest-of-Friday was indeed surprising. But then Saturday jump was exactly what I expected.So 2/3 correct. Edited March 29, 2012 by Fake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
