RTX Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 (edited) Yes, there is a good chance HG stays flat on Thursday.Also, Alice was not really a kids film. 44% of its audience was 25 or older. So, we may well see similar increases on Friday, Saturday. Edited March 29, 2012 by RTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Yes, there is a good chance HG stays flat on Thursday.Also, Alice was not really a kids film. 44% of its audience was 25 or older. So, we may well see similar increases on Friday, Saturday.That means 56% of it was less than 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Current projected total is 416.1MIMO, there is no way in hell it hits 400. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTX Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 That means 56% of it was less than 25.Yeah, but it's not comparable to an actual kids flick like Lorax, where 70% of the audience were parents and little children.Alice's drops on Monday were fairly normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Yeah, but it's not comparable to an actual kids flick like Lorax, where 70% of the audience were parents and little children.Alice's drops on Monday were fairly normal.I get that. But it's not going to have a 155% Friday bump and a 50% Saturday bump. It's burned off too much so far for one and second it is not skewing that young and there is a good amount of people on March break right now so the increases will be stunted. I'd be shocked to see it go higher than 125% on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biggestgeekever Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 WOM can have a huge effect on the Friday jump as well, nearly as much as audience breakdown. And by all counts, WOM for Hunger Games is better than it was for Alice. By no means is that a guarantee, but it pretty much flies in the face of all these 65-70% drop predictions. IMO, there is no way in hell it hits 400.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 WOM can have a huge effect on the Friday jump as well, nearly as much as audience breakdown. And by all counts, WOM for Hunger Games is better than it was for Alice. By no means is that a guarantee, but it pretty much flies in the face of all these 65-70% drop predictions.lolWOM means nothing when you opened as big as a sequel did. It's not going to jump that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 The thing about THG is there is no other movie to compare it to. There is no precedent for it. It opened in March. It opened like a sequel. It didn't open in the summer like TDK did, which is what some of you are comparing it to when you say it will have a three multiplier. I see this having much more of an audience than Twilight, but not more than Potter. I simply don't see a multiplier more than 2.3. I could be proven wrong of course but with ostensibly so much demand burned off, it will take a sizable plunge this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 WOM means nothing when you opened as big as a sequel did. It's not going to jump that high.That's what I've been trying to say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTX Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 WOM means nothing when you opened as big as a sequel did. It's not going to jump that high.Well, WOM definitely can mean a lot for a sequel.It seems you think that this only appleals to fans of the books, which is simply not true. A lot of people who watched HG on the opening weekend never read the books. This film has way more mainstream appeal than Potter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eldenfirefly Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Hmm, still holding out hope it will have a great second weekend. But what Baumer said also made sense. Its burned off a lot of demand already. We will see. This weekend numbers will be interesting. So far THG is acting more like a sequel than a franchise first which is surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Well, WOM definitely can mean a lot for a sequel.It seems you think that this only appleals to fans of the books, which is simply not true. A lot of people who watched HG on the opening weekend never read the books. This film has way more mainstream appeal than Potter.While I am not a fan of the Potters, this statement is simply way too early to prove. And WOM is not going to prevent this from falling substantially this weekend. This film never, NEVER should have opened this high. But it got everyone who likes the books to rush out and see it. A 60% drop is imo, the minimum it will drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Well, WOM definitely can mean a lot for a sequel.It seems you think that this only appleals to fans of the books, which is simply not true. A lot of people who watched HG on the opening weekend never read the books. This film has way more mainstream appeal than Potter.A point I have been trying to convey for some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 I hope you guys don't think my opinions of this have anything to do with my apathy towards it. I'm simply being realistic. I've been right on every drop so far this week. I think it will drop 3-5% today and then it will have the increases I predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Well, WOM definitely can mean a lot for a sequel. It seems you think that this only appleals to fans of the books, which is simply not true. A lot of people who watched HG on the opening weekend never read the books. This film has way more mainstream appeal than Potter. When it does $450m, then you can say that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 When it does $450m, then you can say that. Exactly. The first Potter beat the opening weekend record by 18 mill in 2001 and it went on to have a 3.5 multiplier. I know it was a different box office era then, but for THG to have more mainstream appeal then Potter it would at least have to do 450. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkshop36 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Baumer, what kind of multi are u expecting THG to have?It needs a 2.63 to hit 400m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biggestgeekever Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 (edited) WOM means nothing when you opened as big as a sequel did. It's not going to jump that high.Iron Man opened "as big as a sequel," and yet its weekend drop was the nearly the same as Thor. Your argument is basically that if WOM was poor for Iron Man, it'd still drop the same? Don't you see how ridiculous that is?'The only time that's maybe the case is for franchises with fixed audiences, like the later Potter films, Twilight, and horror films like Saw. At that point, all the WOM in the world isn't going to let them attract a wider audience. They're ultimately the exception: Fast Five's WOM allowed to drop roughly the same as 4, despite much larger opening weekend, much heavier competition, and 4 also had an inflated second Friday. Edited March 29, 2012 by Biggestgeekever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Well, WOM definitely can mean a lot for a sequel.It seems you think that this only appleals to fans of the books, which is simply not true. A lot of people who watched HG on the opening weekend never read the books. This film has way more mainstream appeal than Potter.This is why hardcore fans get to me. Why is it when someone tries to be a little more realistic about this, they don't understand the appeal? What are you seeing that we're not? And how does this have way more mainstream appeal than Potter, which was one of the biggest phenoms on every pop cultural level? Like any huge book series, you have a very large audience rush out on opening weekend. It happens. I agree it's not going to collapse like Twilight, but nothing indicates the legs most seem to think it'll have. I hate looking like such a big doubter, but I do think it's going end up around $350M and that's a huge number. Hell, I'll even say $375M is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Baumer, what kind of multi are u expecting THG to have?It needs a 2.63 to hit 400m.2.3-2.4. I think it tops out at 360. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
