baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Iron Man opened "as big as a sequel," and yet its weekend drop was the nearly the same as Thor. Your argument is basically that if WOM was poor for Iron Man, it'd still drop the same? Don't you see how ridiculous that is?'The only time that's maybe the case is for franchises with fixed audiences, like the later Potter films, Twilight, and horror films like Saw. At that point, all the WOM in the world isn't going to let them attract a wider audience. They're ultimately the exception: Fast Five's WOM allowed to drop roughly the same as 4, despite much larger opening weekend, much heavier competition, and 4 also had an inflated second Friday.Iron Man opened to to 98 mill. That's about 55 mill less than THG. There's a huge difference between 100-110-125 and freakin g152 mill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 This is why hardcore fans get to me. Why is it when someone tries to be a little more realistic about this, they don't understand the appeal? What are you seeing that we're not? And how does this have way more mainstream appeal than Potter, which was one of the biggest phenoms on every pop cultural level?Like any huge book series, you have a very large audience rush out on opening weekend. It happens. I agree it's not going to collapse like Twilight, but nothing indicates the legs most seem to think it'll have. I hate looking like such a big doubter, but I do think it's going end up around $350M and that's a huge number. Hell, I'll even say $375M is possible.Agreed!!!I thought THG would do 200 TOPS. Its going to make than in its first week. This film has already exceeded most people's wildest and silliest expectations. But there is a ceiling to a film like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Let's wait and say till Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkshop36 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I think it lands between 370-375m. That seems doable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 While I am not a fan of the Potters, this statement is simply way too early to prove. And WOM is not going to prevent this from falling substantially this weekend. This film never, NEVER should have opened this high. But it got everyone who likes the books to rush out and see it. A 60% drop is imo, the minimum it will drop.If the potential is there than a film always has a shot at reaching its maximum potential, and if only the fans showed up than the film would have imploded twilight/potter style after opening day, it increased, and posted a 50m Saturday, I've never seen a film purely driven by fanboys do the same, especially after already having let off a lot of lots steam on day one. The film has since almost categorically dropped the exact same amount I predicted it would over a week ago now. What is your bassis for thinking the film is purely fanboy driven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eldenfirefly Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I am still hoping that it does hit 400 million. To me 400m has always been a very difficult barrier to cross. None of the twilight or HP movies passed it. So, if THG passed it, that in itself would be amazing already. We got to also remember that the hype buildup snowballed in the fastest way ever seen. For me, 400 million and I would be really happy already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 If the potential is there than a film always has a shot at reaching its maximum potential, and if only the fans showed up than the film would have imploded twilight/potter style after opening day, it increased, and posted a 50m Saturday, I've never seen a film purely driven by fanboys do the same, especially after already having let off a lot of lots steam on day one. The film has since almost categorically dropped the exact same amount I predicted it would over a week ago now. What is your bassis for thinking the film is purely fanboy driven?It doesn't have to be fanboy driven to have a 60% drop. It just destroyed all kinds of records. That is my basis for it dropping. Law of averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 DH2 added maybe 7% surcharge from 3D (very low after its first weekend), which means it did roughly $351m without 3D. The moment THG passes that (and it will), it should be enough for people's expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biggestgeekever Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 (edited) Iron Man opened to to 98 mill. That's about 55 mill less than THG. There's a huge difference between 100-110-125 and freakin g152 mill. There's plenty of other examples out there: Pirates 2, Spider-Man 1, The Dark Knight, etc. Do you think those all would have dropped the same if WOM wasn't at least good? Or do you think Spider-Man 3 would have imploded 62% if it had the same response as the first two? Agreed!!! I thought THG would do 200 TOPS. Its going to make than in its first week. This film has already exceeded most people's wildest and silliest expectations. But there is a ceiling to a film like this. Ugh. I really don't know how you can say that when just a page ago you were talking about how there's no precedent for this movie. As always, serve up all the crow you want if I'm wrong. Edited March 29, 2012 by Biggestgeekever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moeSlow Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 as long as it passes DH2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Sure there are examples out there. But those films all have massive followings and they all came out in the summer. Spidermans drop is legendary and so is TDK's . If this falls less than 60% then I will admit i was wrong and that I misread the appeal of the film. But until then, I believe I'm right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 If this falls less than 60% then I will admit i was wrong and that I misread the appeal of the film. You better hope it doesn't fall 59%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Just to make it clear. HP1 adjusts to an opening weekend of $125m. This was back in 2001 without IMAX, midnights, and a general lack of frontloadedness. Opening today, it would have easily opened to over $145m. Probably $155m. But worse legs. I have been one of the biggest support of THG, and I always will be, but calm down with the $400m+ predicts for it. It is absolutely going to have a better drop than the later Potters and Twilight, but to break the second weekend record? I will be shocked. I still see a $62m weekend for it (60% drop). 55% will be a struggle to reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 as long as it passes DH2.Which should be enough for all of you, but it clearly isn't! It doesn't even need to do $380m to be bigger than DH2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 (edited) It doesn't have to be fanboy driven to have a 60% drop. It just destroyed all kinds of records. That is my basis for it dropping. Law of averages.Law of averages is in the films favor, considering record breaking non-sequels dont drop as hard as record breaking sequels. Edited March 29, 2012 by B J Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 We can keep going in circles with this "non-sequel" argument. Just because it's not a sequel doesn't mean it's guaranteed to hold like one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 (edited) We can keep going in circles with this "non-sequel" argument. Just because it's not a sequel doesn't mean it's guaranteed to hold like one.And just because it opened like a sequel doesn't mean its guaranteed to fall like one. Edited March 29, 2012 by spizzer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Law of averages is in the films favor, considering record breaking non-sequels dont drop as hard as record breaking sequels.Which record breaking non sequels are you talking about? Spiderman and Potter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 And just because it opened like a sequel doesn't mean its guaranteed to fall like one. IMO it does. It burned off so much already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I'm dropping this, and calling for a sub 55% drop. Good day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
