Fake Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 IMO, today's drop will be 4-6%.My predictions right now is 5-7% drop today and 120-125% jump on Friday. If it stays flat today, it should jump 110-115%.So overall I am just a bit more optimistic than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cedarpoint1111 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 -2% Thursday, + 150% Friday, +35% Saturday, - 28% Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 I expect an increase todayWhy? Big films in their first week of release don't increase on Thursdays. For examples, TDK dropped 10% on its first Thurs. Don't expect it to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cedarpoint1111 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I would like to see a sub 50% drop for the weekend but I can live with sub 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Good Wednesday number. It may be a "big tumble" compared to the other movies, but it's also making a buttload of cash everyday compared to the other movies.I think it stays around 8m on Thursday and then has a 68m-72m 2nd weekend.There is not even a remote possibility of this getting 72m weekend now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darthdevidem01 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 My calculations have it doing 53.5 mill this weekend for a 65% drop.That would be pretty disappointing after the predictions by some trackers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Good Wednesday number. It may be a "big tumble" compared to the other movies, but it's also making a buttload of cash everyday compared to the other movies.I think it stays around 8m on Thursday and then has a 68m-72m 2nd weekend.How is that possible? Are you expecting it to increase by 150% on Friday 50% on Saturday and drop 25% on Sunday?8 Thurs20 Friday30 Sat29 SundayImpossible. This train has left the station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 My calculations have it doing 53.5 mill this weekend for a 65% drop.That seems a couple millions too low to me... but who knows.... we are in uncharted territory here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockNrollaDIM Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 (edited) Weekend scenario, with ALICE numbers: Thursday: 8.0m (-) Friday: 20.4m (+155%) Saturday: 31.74m (+55%) Sunday: 22.22m (-30%) Weekend: 74.36m (-51.3%) Now that would be an insane hold.... Here's a more conservative scenario: Thursday: 8.0m (-) Friday: 18.8m (+135%) Saturday: 25.38m (+35%) Sunday: 18.53m (-27%) Weekend: 62.71m (-59%) That's with significantly crappier jumps than Alice... doable, IMO. Edited March 29, 2012 by rockNrollaDIM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 That would be pretty disappointing after the predictions by some trackers.But it's not an idictment of the film. This was going to be frontloaded right from the beginning. This opened way bigger than anyone thought it would which means EVERYONE rushed out to see it. There is still a finite amount of people who love this series. It is damn near impossible for it to sustain any kind of massive momentum like some of the loonies here predict it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK007 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Expected. I did say it'd drop between 20-25% and 22.5% is smack dab in the middle.I'm going to say it'll increase tomorrow by 4%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Alice was geared more towards kids and that's why the weekend increases were so substantial. THG is not a kids film which means the weekend bumps will be less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
75Live Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Yeah this drop fell in line with expectations so it's still a decent number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockNrollaDIM Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 (edited) Alice was geared more towards kids and that's why the weekend increases were so substantial. THG is not a kids film which means the weekend bumps will be less.But THAT much less? This appeals very much to teens too. As well as to adults who have been waiting for the second weekend.I don't think it drops 20% harder than Alice. Edited March 29, 2012 by rockNrollaDIM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 But THAT much less? This appeals very much to teens too. As well as to adults who have been waiting for the second weekend.I don't think it drops 20% harder than Alice.Alice didn't open to 150 mill. Big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Han Cobb Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 (edited) But it's not an idictment of the film. This was going to be frontloaded right from the beginning. This opened way bigger than anyone thought it would which means EVERYONE rushed out to see it. There is still a finite amount of people who love this series. It is damn near impossible for it to sustain any kind of massive momentum like some of the loonies here predict it will.Boxoffice.com's weekend prediction is 72m. You're saying they're loonies? Edited March 29, 2012 by Han Cobb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Alice was geared more towards kids and that's why the weekend increases were so substantial. THG is not a kids film which means the weekend bumps will be less.EXACTLY!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockNrollaDIM Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 (edited) I think you guys are gonna have egg on your face this weekend... you've been singing its impending downfall all week (similar, I might mention, to how you downplayed it all the way until OD as well). We'll see what happens Edited March 29, 2012 by rockNrollaDIM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatebox Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Boxoffice.com's weekend prediction is 72m. You're saying they're loonies?I'd be surprised if it's that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Boxoffice.com's weekend prediction is 72m. You're saying they're loonies?Yes. I am. It's compltely unrealistic to predict that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
