SLAM! Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 Audiences must care about the nominees. If the Oscars can't nominate films that general audiences care about, they'll continue their decline. So what films have a chance of hit the sweet spot of audience and critical engagement? Dune The strong cast of performers makes me think that this film will easily gross more than $100M domestic. I'm not convinced that it'll blow up like Lord of the Rings did, but I think there will be a lot of buzz around this film. The Eternals MCU films no longer need marketing. Everyone who follows the MCU is going to see this film. And if it's half as good as everyone thinks it might be, then it wouldn't be smart business sense if the academy didn't at least throw this a Black Panther style obligation nom. The French Dispatch Wes Anderson is an important populist piece of the puzzle to attract those interested in film. Talk to any youthful film fan and they'll tell you they're a fan of his work. This film getting recognition is an important piece of the puzzle. In The Heights This musical is about to achieve high amounts of critical praise, and if audiences follow suit, then this will be a great film to enliven audience interest in the Oscars. Nightmare Alley Guillermo del Toro's name has become synonymous with great cinema due to Pan's Labyrinth (which is a mainstay on Netflix so who knows how many people have given it a chance). After The Shape of Water winning, I believe that this film getting recognition is an important piece of the puzzle. West Side Story Steven Spielberg directing this will likely cause the film to be great. Elgort's involvement in the film might sink its chances but I think audiences are going to see this and it'll be a cultural statement. These are a few examples of films that have a chance of enlivening audience interest. However, I believe that no matter what the Academy nominates, they're going to struggle to have their viewership reach 20 Million. I think they should listen to criticism by having a streaming option for the broadcast. People are cutting the cord in record numbers and if ABC unhooks their claws just a little bit, a lot of people who don't have cable might be interested in watching it, and it would be a step in the right direction. News flash: it's still possible to put commercials and advertisements in a streaming broadcast. I don't know. 2021 is going to be the strongest year for cinema in a long time thanks to films by Guillermo del Toro, Paul Thomas Anderson, David O. Russell, Joel Coen, Robert Eggers, etc.--and people aren't going to stop loving movies--but the Oscars need to adapt so that people actually watch the Oscars and deserving films that rely on awards recognition for reaching broader audiences have a chance to do that. So Academy, put down the Green Book, put down the Vice, put down the Darkest Hour, and get your head in the game. It's life or death now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 @SLAM! I think it is time to consider that nominating a big box office hit is no longer a draw factor for Oscar ceremony. 2014's Oscar we have 4 movies pass 100m with gravity on top at 274m. That year we had 43m+ viewership. 2020's Oscar we have 5 movies pass 100m and joker came at top with 335m. This ceremony barely hit 23m rating. Both ceremony give a 50m grosser like 12 years a slave and parasite the ultimate prize. Yet 2020 Oscar lose 20m+ audience. Why? I rewatch both Oscar ceremony and that clearly there is an distinction between both. 2014 Oscar , hosted by Ellen had so much fun within that I don't really need to watch a lot of nominees to enjoy throughout but that wasn't the case for 2020 Oscar. People or hollywood needs to wake up. People watch an award show for escapism. You can't provide your audience both serious tone nominees and award show at the same time. And you see, Green Book and Parasite are still receiving notable Oscar bump after their win, meaning people actually pay attention to oscar. They just don't like to attend a political , left or right, lecturing. The moment you realise oscar is truly dead, is when wining an Oscar best picture failed to provide you any commercial bump 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted May 16, 2021 Share Posted May 16, 2021 Critics Choice Awards (aka the other, somehow even more superfluous awards show of Oscar season) has moved to the date of what would have been the Golden Globes ceremony on January 9. Critics Choice Awards Sets 2022 Timeline; Will Air Live On The CW – Deadline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 Oscars: Academy Announces Date for 94th Oscars and Key Events Leading Up to It https://t.co/GbkSNYY00i — The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) May 27, 2021 1. The ceremony is pushed back a month to March 27. 2. The cutoff date is back to December 31st. 3. The rules of last year will still apply in that movies that were supposed to have theatrical runs but ended up skipping multiplexes for streaming will still be eligible, so movies like Luca have nothing to worry about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 (edited) 1. House of Gucci 2. Nightmare Alley 3. Dune 4. Soggy Bottom 5. West Side Story 6. The Tragedy of Macbeth 7. Being the Ricardos 8. The Power of the Dog 9. Dear Evan Hansen 10. The French Dispatch ----------------------- 11. Canterbury Glass 12. Don't Look Up 13. In the Heights 14. Last Night in Soho 15. A Hero 16. A Journal for Jordan 17. Eternals 18. The Last Duel 19. CODA 20. The Humans Right now I'm thinking at least two of the top eight are going to massive duds awards-wise, but I don't know which ones yet. Power of the Dog (Campion hasn't been a factor for a long time) and Ricardos (Sorkin is hit or miss every season) make the most sense. Edited May 27, 2021 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 Mar 27 is a very late date. Is there any justification given by AMPAS? This is going to be very hard for those film that like capitalize on Oscar bump until Oscar night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 16 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: 1. House of Gucci 2. Nightmare Alley 3. Dune 4. Soggy Bottom 5. West Side Story 6. The Tragedy of Macbeth 7. Being the Ricardos 8. The Power of the Dog 9. Dear Evan Hansen 10. The French Dispatch ----------------------- 11. Canterbury Glass 12. Don't Look Up 13. In the Heights 14. Last Night in Soho 15. A Hero 16. A Journal for Jordan 17. Eternals 18. The Last Duel 19. CODA 20. The Humans Right now I'm thinking at least two of the top eight are going to massive duds awards-wise, but I don't know which ones yet. Power of the Dog (Campion hasn't been a factor for a long time) and Ricardos (Sorkin is hit or miss every season) make the most sense. Dear Evan Hansen? Looks like this year's Hillbilly Elegy to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: Dear Evan Hansen? Looks like this year's Hillbilly Elegy to me. It could go either way, but general audiences are loving the trailer. Hollywood will probably fall in the same boat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 (edited) Dear Evan Hansen looks like the kind of movie the Golden Globes would go head over heels for while nobody else does except...there won't be a Golden Globes this year lmao. Edited May 27, 2021 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 20 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: It could go either way, but general audiences are loving the trailer. Hollywood will probably fall in the same boat. Idk, by general audiences, if you mean the youtube trailer comments section, it seems to be brigaded by theater kids. And everything from reviews to boxoffice to audience reception should end up being higher for In the Heights. I just don't see the reviews being good enough for Hansen to end up making it. Quite easily see it going below 30% on RT and somewhere in the 40s on MC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 Seems like both the new Park Chan Wook film and Farhadi film will premiere at Cannes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said: 1. House of Gucci 2. Nightmare Alley 3. Dune 4. Soggy Bottom 5. West Side Story 6. The Tragedy of Macbeth 7. Being the Ricardos 8. The Power of the Dog 9. Dear Evan Hansen 10. The French Dispatch ----------------------- 11. Canterbury Glass 12. Don't Look Up 13. In the Heights 14. Last Night in Soho 15. A Hero 16. A Journal for Jordan 17. Eternals 18. The Last Duel 19. CODA 20. The Humans Right now I'm thinking at least two of the top eight are going to massive duds awards-wise, but I don't know which ones yet. Power of the Dog (Campion hasn't been a factor for a long time) and Ricardos (Sorkin is hit or miss every season) make the most sense. I'd say Dear Evan Hansen has a bigger chance of being a dud than Ricardos, but that's just me as a huge Sorkin fan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted May 29, 2021 Share Posted May 29, 2021 I would say as far as musicals go I think In the Heights makes a lot more sense as acontender than Dear Evan Hansen I think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rorschach Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 I'd laugh my ass off if Dear Evan Hansen got in over In The Heights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 36 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: Was gonna post this too, but in the thread he says it pertains mostly to non-American films in competition, so probably not gonna be the oft speculated Macbeth (which would make sense, given Coens) or Blonde. Def not the PTA film either. Could be Power of the Dog though. I do think we get Eternals out of competition, though. Also makes sense for Stillwater to debut, given it is set in France and comes out that month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said: Was gonna post this too, but in the thread he says it pertains mostly to non-American films in competition, so probably not gonna be the oft speculated Macbeth (which would make sense, given Coens) or Blonde. Def not the PTA film either. Could be Power of the Dog though. I do think we get Eternals out of competition, though. Also makes sense for Stillwater to debut, given it is set in France and comes out that month. I was hoping Cry Macho would be a surprise (since the French love Eastwood) but I guess that won't happen. Edited June 3, 2021 by lorddemaxus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 Stillwater went out of competition. I guess it sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Prime Posted June 3, 2021 Author Share Posted June 3, 2021 So...is the global blockbuster folks were hyping up that Stillwater movie? If so, then LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted June 3, 2021 Share Posted June 3, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Eric is Full of Pride said: So...is the global blockbuster folks were hyping up that Stillwater movie? If so, then LOL Don't think they're announcing that today. Thierry still keeping it a secret. Edit: he clarified it isn't Dune, Spielberg, and Bond. Edited June 3, 2021 by lorddemaxus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
