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Eric Loves Rey

Best Picture Predictions - 2021

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DGA nominees:

 

Belfast

Dune

Licorice Pizza

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

 

And the First-Time Director nominees:

 

Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Rebecca Hall, Passing
Tatiana Huezo, Prayers for the Stolen
Lin-Manuel Miranda, tick, tick...BOOM!
Michael Sarnoski, Pig

Edited by filmlover
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It's becoming abundantly clear that Don't Look Up is looking to get in Best Picture primarily based on starpower and having buzz ever since it started. McKay's gonna have to put out a Cats-level career-stalling fiasco in order for the Academy to fall out of love with him at this rate.

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Seem like PTA nomination for best director in DGA has put a stop for people who is thinking about LP's Oscar hype is fading. But DGA and Oscar never go 5/5 match as most of the time it went 4/5. There must be someone drop off the list eventually. For now honestly I think it is going to be Steven Speilberg since WSS is the only remake among all and could suffer similar fate like Bradley Cooper for ASIB. 

 

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58 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Seem like PTA nomination for best director in DGA has put a stop for people who is thinking about LP's Oscar hype is fading. But DGA and Oscar never go 5/5 match as most of the time it went 4/5. There must be someone drop off the list eventually. For now honestly I think it is going to be Steven Speilberg since WSS is the only remake among all and could suffer similar fate like Bradley Cooper for ASIB. 

 

Licorice Pizza was never fading, people were so hasty in writing it off for whatever reason. Online discourse has NO real life impact, people should realize this finally. 

 

I think if a DGA nom falls out, it's still Branagh. It's the weakest reviewed film, the most middlebrow and least highbrow. Spielberg hasn't missed Oscar after DGA since Amistad. Cooper was an actor making his director debut so there was probably some hesitance. And ASIB underperformed a bit missing Editing as well. West Side is Spielberg's flashiest direction since Private Ryan basically

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23 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Licorice Pizza was never fading, people were so hasty in writing it off for whatever reason. Online discourse has NO real life impact, people should realize this finally. 

 

I think if a DGA nom falls out, it's still Branagh. It's the weakest reviewed film, the most middlebrow and least highbrow. Spielberg hasn't missed Oscar after DGA since Amistad. Cooper was an actor making his director debut so there was probably some hesitance. And ASIB underperformed a bit missing Editing as well. West Side is Spielberg's flashiest direction since Private Ryan basically

Director branch love Black & white film, remember how Nebraska got in despite mostly overlooked ? Cold war was also ignored pretty everywhere but got in last minute, replacing ASIB or GB. Mank was also worst-reviewed BP nominees among but still got in. 

 

Now I am thinking Hamaguchi to replace either one but Hamaguchi is a Japanese filmmaker, the non-english best director surprise nomination like Hanake, Pawel Pawlikowski and Vinterberg are all European filmmaker where you can't underestimate Euro block in Oscar voters. And three of them got BAFTA best director nomination before surprise inclusion at the Oscar. Not sure if Hamaguchi can achieve such feat by not getting nomination anywhere but suddenly got in, especially under banner of Janus films

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7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Director branch love Black & white film, remember how Nebraska got in despite mostly overlooked ? Cold war was also ignored pretty everywhere but got in last minute, replacing ASIB or GB. Mank was also worst-reviewed BP nominees among but still got in. 

 

Now I am thinking Hamaguchi to replace either one but Hamaguchi is a Japanese filmmaker, the non-english best director surprise nomination like Hanake, Pawel Pawlikowski and Vinterberg are all European filmmaker where you can't underestimate Euro block in Oscar voters. And three of them got BAFTA best director nomination before surprise inclusion at the Oscar. Not sure if Hamaguchi can achieve such feat by not getting nomination anywhere but suddenly got in, especially under banner of Janus films

Nebraska was an Alexander Payne movie who is an Oscar mainstay, though. It was his third consecutive Directing nom from Sideways to Descendants to Nebraska. And the reviews were better. It premiered at Cannes so it had highbrow appeal. Same applies for Cold War which won Cannes Director and Pawel was also BAFTA nominated. Even with the weak reviews, Mank was a Fincher film about Hollywood which Academy always loves.

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Finally watched House of Gucci and I'd say its often flat and sometimes feels confused as what kind of movie its trying to be.  I don't think this material is in Ridley Scott's wheelhouse, it feels like a story that Martin Scorsese would've excelled at.  Overall its not terrible like the other star studded awards bait movie this year DON'T LOOK UP, but it definitely should've been much better than it is.   Its insane to me how out of the 2 Scott movies this year(the other being one of his actual best movies), this is the one thats gotten the awards talk.

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7 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

Finally watched House of Gucci and I'd say its often flat and sometimes feels confused as what kind of movie its trying to be.  I don't think this material is in Ridley Scott's wheelhouse, it feels like a story that Martin Scorsese would've excelled at.  Overall its not terrible like the other star studded awards bait movie this year DON'T LOOK UP, but it definitely should've been much better than it is.   Its insane to me how out of the 2 Scott movies this year(the other being one of his actual best movies), this is the one thats gotten the awards talk.

Behold the unlimited power and influence of Gaga. Also being one of the very few (relative) bright spots for adult-moviegoing in the pandemic era.

 

I don't think it's getting in for anything more than acting and Costumes though, if PGA didn't go for it it's unlikely anyone else will.

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BAFTA noms:

 

Best Film
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power Of The Dog

 

Director
After Love, Aleem Khan
Drive My Car, Ryûsuke Hamaguchi
Happening, Audrey Diwan
Licorice Pizza, Paul Thomas Anderson
The Power Of The Dog, Jane Campion
Titane, Julia Ducournau

 

Leading Actor
Adeel Akhtar, Ali & Ava
Mahershala Ali, Swan Song
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power Of The Dog
Leonardo Dicaprio, Don’t Look Up
Stephen Graham, Boiling Point
Will Smith, King Richard

 

Supporting Actor
Mike Faist, West Side Story
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, Coda
Woody Norman, C’mon C’mon
Jesse Plemons, The Power Of The Dog
Kodi Smit-Mcphee, The Power Of The Dog

 

Outstanding Debut By A British Writer, Director Or Producer
After Love, Aleem Khan (writer/director)
Boiling Point, James Cummings (writer), Hester Ruoff (producer) [also written by Philip Barantini and produced by Bart Ruspoli]
The Harder They Fall, Jeymes Samuel (writer/director) [Also written by Boaz Yakin]
Keyboard Fantasies, Posy Dixon (writer/director), Liv Proctor (producer)
Passing, Rebecca Hall (writer/director)

 

Leading Actress
Lady Gaga, House Of Gucci
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Emilia Jones, Coda
Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person In The World
Joanna Scanlan, After Love
Tessa Thompson, Passing

 

Supporting Actress
Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana Debose, West Side Story
Ann Dowd, Mass
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing

 

Adapted Screenplay
Coda, Siân Heder
Drive My Car, Ryûsuke Hamaguchi
Dune, Denis Villeneuve
The Lost Daughter, Maggie Gyllenhaal
The Power Of The Dog, Jane Campion

 

Original Screenplay
Being The Ricardos, Aaron Sorkin
Belfast, Kenneth Branagh
Don’t Look Up, Adam Mckay
King Richard, Zach Baylin
Licorice Pizza, Paul Thomas Anderson

 

Outstanding British Film
After Love
Ali & Ava
Belfast
Boiling Point
Cyrano
Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
House Of Gucci
Last Night In Soho
No Time To Die
Passing

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The Awards Season That's All Over The Place continues.

 

Don't Look Up's whole awards season run proves that the spirit and influence of the HFPA lives on. Or McKay must be protected by dark magic or something.

 

Well, I guess Kidman's not the frontrunner after all. I don't know who is taking home Actress at this point...Haim FTW? Heh (even though she's great in Licorice Pizza).

 

Happy for Mike Faist, but Dornan failing to show up here seems to be the end for his chances. Plemons and no Dunst is also a surprise.

 

Denzel is never getting nominated for a BAFTA award at this point, can't decide if that's hilarious or sad (probably both).

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Rest of the nominees:

 

Film Not In The English Language
Drive My Car
The Hand Of God
Parallel Mothers
Petite Maman
The Worst Person In The World

 

Documentary
Becoming Cousteau
Cow
Flee
The Rescue
Summer Of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

 

Animated Film
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells Vs The Machines

 

Original Score
Being The Ricardos
Don’t Look Up
Dune
The French Dispatch
The Power Of The Dog

 

Casting
Boiling Point, Carolyn Mcleod
Dune, Francine, Maisler
The Hand Of God, Massimo Appolloni, Annamaria Sambucco
King Richard, Rich Delia, Avy Kaufman
West Side Story, Cindy Tolan

 

Cinematography
Dune
Nightmare Alley
No Time To Die
The Power Of The Dog
The Tragedy Of Macbeth

 

Editing
Belfast
Dune
Licorice Pizza
No Time To Die
Summer Of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

 

Production Design
Cyrano
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

 

Costume Design
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley

 

Make Up & Hair
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
The Eyes Of Tammy Faye
House Of Gucci

 

Sound
Dune
Last Night In Soho
No Time To Die
A Quiet Place Part II
West Side Story

 

Special Visual Effects
Dune
Free Guy
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time To Die

 

British Short Animation
Affairs Of The Art, Joanna Quinn, Les Mills
Do Not Feed The Pigeons, Jordi Morera
Night Of The Living Dread, Ida Melum, Danielle Goff, Laura Jayne Tunbridge, Hannah Kelso

 

British Short Film
The Black Cop, Cherish Oteka
Femme, Sam H. Freeman, Ng Choon Ping, Sam Ritzenberg, Hayley Williams
The Palace, Jo Prichard
Stuffed, Theo Rhys, Joss Holden-Rea
Three Meetings Of The Extraordinary Committee, Michael Woodward, Max Barron, Daniel Wheldon

Edited by filmlover
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1 hour ago, grim22 said:

What this lineup tells me is that Gaga and Haim were 1 and 2 in voting. The others feel like jury picks

 

 

 

 

Gaga to pull off the win at the Oscars?

She's hit all the precursors and her movie actually did okay at the box office, great for a pandemic drama. It would be her second acting nomination, and for a very different role than the other nod. Even people in the industry seem to view her on a different, exalted level of celebrity... I think the predictors would see this win coming from a mile away if not for the Gaga of it all.

 

Of course, with this chaotic season, watch her miss next Tuesday. I mean, Kidman was just the frontrunner and the Best Actress race was done, until these nominations came out.

 

*

 

They really don't like remakes of classics...at least not for awards. Sorry, Steven, should have done a behind the scenes movie about the making of West Side Story and you would've been all good. Odd that Mike Faist finally gets in at BAFTA, given the movie's overall performance there.

 

And the opposite with Bradley and Licorice Pizza, though the BAFTA jury system makes it hard to read much into the acting races besides the Top 2 in any category.

 

 

Denzel still snubbed at BAFTA. But they got in Will Smith and Mahershala Ali, so it's not a thing against Black American men, just him. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

 

 

 

Edited by BoxOfficeFangrl
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2 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

They really don't like remakes of classics...at least not for awards. Sorry, Steven, should have done a behind the scenes movie about the making of West Side Story and you would've been all good. Odd that Mike Faist finally gets in at BAFTA, given the overall performance.

WSS still did well here overall with 5 nominations. They just decided to spread the wealth this year and we probably shouldn't discount the chance that WSS might be too "American" for international groups. Same reason why tick, tick...BOOM! likely got completely shut out here - does anyone outside the U.S. know who Jonathan Larson was or what Rent is (looking at the box office total of the 2005 adaptation, which was over 90% from America, it seems the answer is an almost definite "no")?

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