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Eric Duncan

Best Picture Predictions - 2021

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Films ineligible for WGA Nominations:

 

My Predictions and Commentary:

Spoiler

Original

Being the Ricardos (for Sorkin)

Don't Look Up

King Richard
Licorice Pizza

 

The fifth slot is likely between C'mon C'mon and The French Dispatch unless the WGA wants to nominate anything more surprising. This is likely the last chance for C'mon C'mon to build a serious narrative toward an Original Screenplay nomination.

 

Adapted

CODA

Dune

House of Gucci

Nightmare Alley

West Side Story

 

The Green Knight, No Time to Die, tick, tick... Boom!, and The Tragedy of Macbeth are also contenders to varying degrees but besides those, there are very few films with enough awards season traction to manage a nomination here.

 

Edited by SLAM!
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On 1/10/2022 at 7:40 PM, stripe said:

 

So do I. The last two BP spots still seem wide opened and the buzz is definitely growing. Also, AMPAS has more foreign members than ever.

No to mention its box office actually quite decent as a foreign language film distributed by unknown distributor. But so far I have yet seen enough of industry recognition for the film outside of best foreign language film. Not sure its 3 hours runtime will deter voters from watching.   

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2 hours ago, filmlover said:

 

I didn't think so, since he's such an NBC guy and is on the edgier side. ABC might go to bat against the Film Twitter mob for someone in their stable, but not someone from another network. Alas, it would have led to the convergence of like five celebrity triangles at the Dolby, Deuxmoi would have been in heaven.

 

Seriously, I do like the idea in the article of the Only Murders in the Building trio, it caters to multiple generations without being a totally random grouping who might not mesh.

 

 

 

Edited by BoxOfficeFangrl
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8 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

 

I didn't think so, since he's such an NBC guy and is on the edgier side. ABC might go to bat against the Film Twitter mob for someone in their stable, but not someone from another network. Alas, it would have led to the convergence of like five celebrity triangles at the Dolby, Deuxmoi would have been n heaven.

 

Seriously, I do like the idea in the article of the Only Murders in the Building trio, it caters to multiple generations without being a totally random grouping who might not mesh.

 

 

 

I'm all for the Only Murders stars doing it but with the new season of the show being well into production right now I don't know when and how they would have the time to rehearse and prepare for a three hour ceremony. I could see them doing a cute little skit though (most likely something pre-recorded).

 

It's gonna be really boring if they end up going for Kimmel and the "look at celebrities interacting with commoners" shtick he does on his own talk show yet again. But given how clearly starved for huge ratings they are (as the mess ending of last year's ceremony proved), they'll likely be aiming much higher. Maybe Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt to further exploit their Disney connections.

 

 

Edited by filmlover
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On 1/14/2022 at 2:03 AM, SLAM! said:

Films ineligible for WGA Nominations:

 

My Predictions and Commentary:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Being eligible for WGA is harder than garner a nomination 

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On 1/13/2022 at 7:03 PM, SLAM! said:

Films ineligible for WGA Nominations:

 

My Predictions and Commentary:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Is there a reason(s) for why so many films are ineligible? PotD and Lost Daughter are both tipped as shoe-ins for screenplay noms at the Oscars, yet WGA is ignoring them...

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14 minutes ago, cookie said:

Is there a reason(s) for why so many films are ineligible? PotD and Lost Daughter are both tipped as shoe-ins for screenplay noms at the Oscars, yet WGA is ignoring them...


Scripts are usually ineligible because they weren’t written by WGA members or because the production aren’t “signatories of the guild’s Minimum Basic Agreement” (The Wrap). I think Tarantino films aren’t eligible at WGA because of this.

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6 hours ago, CloneWars said:

Holland seems the logical choice for host. Maybe Holland and Cumberbatch together to hype DS2

Cumberbatch won't do it, he wouldn't be interested even if offered and it's trashy to host at the same time you're nominated, as James Franco proved. Same reason we can rule out Garfield as well.

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Critic awards today:

 

TORONTO:

 

Film:

1. Drive My Car

2. Licorice Pizza

3. Power of the Dog

 

Director:

1. Campion, Power of the Dog

2. Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

3. Villeneuve, Dune

 

Screenplay:

1. Drive My Car

2. Licorice Pizza

3. Power of the Dog

 

Actress:

1. Colman, The Lost Daughter

2. Cruz, Parallel Mothers

3. Stewart, Spencer

 

Actor:

1. Washington, Macbeth

2. Cumberbatch, Power of the Dog

3. Garfield, Tick tick Boom

 

First Feature:

1. The Lost Daughter

2. Passing

3. Shiva Baby

 

International:

1. Drive My Car

2. Petite Maman

3. The Worst Person in the World

 

Documentary:

1. Summer of Soul

2. Flee

3. The Velvet Underground

 

Animated:

1. Flee

2. Encanto

3. Mitchells vs the Machines

 

Supporting Actress:

1. Buckley, The Lost Daughter

2. Dunst, Power of the Dog

3. Negga, Passing

 

Supporting Actor:

1. Cooper, Licorice Pizza

2. Hinds, Belfast

3. Smit-McPhee, Power of the Dog

 

KANSAS CITY:

 

Picture: Power of the Dog

runner-up: West Side Story

 

Director: Campion, Power of the Dog

runner-up: Spielberg, West Side Story

 

Actor: Cumberbatch, Power of the Dog

runner-up: Garfield, Tick Tick Boom

 

Actress: Colman, The Lost Daughter

runner-up: Stewart, Spencer

 

Supporting Actor: Hinds, Belfast

runner-up: Smit-McPhee, Power of the Dog

 

Supporting Actress: Dowd, Mass

runner-up: DeBose, West Side Story

 

Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza

runner-up: French Dispatch

 

Adapted Screenplay: West Side Story

runner-up: Drive My Car

 

Cinematography: Macbeth

runner-up: Dune

 

Animated: Mitchells vs Machines

runner-up: Flee

 

Documentary: Summer of Soul

runner-up: Procession

 

Foreign: Drive My Car

runner-up: Worst Person in the World

 

 

Best Film 

  • Belfast 
  • Cyrano 
  • Dune 
  • The Green Knight 
  • Licorice Pizza 
  • Pig 
  • The Power of the Dog 
  • Spider-Man: No Way Home 
  • The Tragedy Of Macbeth 
  • West Side Story 

Best Director 

  • Kenneth Branagh – Belfast 
  • Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog 
  • Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth 
  • Steven Spielberg – West Side Story 
  • Denis Villeneuve – Dune 

Best Actor 

  • Nicolas Cage – Pig 
  • Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog 
  • Peter Dinklage – Cyrano 
  • Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom! 
  • Will Smith – King Richard 

Best Actress 

  • Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter 
  • Lady Gaga – House of Gucci 
  • Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza 
  • Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth 
  • Kirsten Stewart – Spencer 

Best Supporting Actor 

  • Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza 
  • Mike Faist – West Side Story 
  • Ciaran Hinds – Belfast 
  • Troy Kotsur – Coda 
  • Kodi Smit-Mcphee – The Power of the Dog 

Best Supporting Actress (There Was A Tie For Fifth In This Category) 

  • Ariana Debose – West Side Story 
  • Ann Dowd – Mass 
  • Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog 
  • Gabby Hoffmann – C’mon, C’mon 
  • Regina King – The Harder They Fall 
  • Ruth Negga – Passing 

Best Original Screenplay (There Was A Tie For Fifth In This Category) 

  • Being The Ricardos 
  • Belfast 
  • C’mon C’mon 
  • The French Dispatch 
  • Licorice Pizza 
  • Mass 

Best Adapted Screenplay (There Was A Tie For Fifth In This Category) 

  • Drive My Car 
  • Dune 
  • The Green Knight 
  • The Power of the Dog 
  • The Tragedy of Macbeth 
  • West Side Story 

Best Cinematography 

  • Belfast 
  • Dune 
  • The Power Of The Dog 
  • The Tragedy Of Macbeth 
  • West Side Story 

Best Animated Feature 

  • Encanto 
  • Flee 
  • Luca 
  • The Mitchells Vs the Machines 
  • Raya and the Last Dragon 

Best Foreign Film 

  • Drive My Car 
  • Flee 
  • The Hand of God 
  • Petite Maman 
  • The Worst Person In The World 

Best Documentary (There Was A Tie For Fifth In This Category) 

  • A Cop Movie 
  • Flee 
  • Procession 
  • The Rescue 
  • The Sparks Brothers 
  • Summer of Soul 
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Less than 10 days to know PGA and DGA nominees. PGA usually surprises with some popular choices (Borat 2, Knives out, A quiet place, Crazy rich asians, Wonder Woman...). DGA prefers to focus on American directors while AMPAS lately has a wider vision (Vinterberg, Pawlikowski, Lanthimos...).

 

My predictions:

 

PGA

Being the Ricardos

Belfast

CODA

Don't Look Up
Dune

House of Gucci

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Power of the Dog

West Side Story

 

Alt. No Way Home

 

DGA

Steven Spielberg - WSS

Adam McKay - DLU

Kenneth Branagh - Belfast

Jane Campion - Power of the Dog

Dennis Villeneuve - Dune

 

Alt. Paul Thomas Anderson - LP

 

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DGA just votes on what the top 5 films are. Still thinking Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, Power of the Dog, West Side Story. Leo DiCaprio missing SAG Actor and Don't Look Up flopping the AACTA Internationals (good barometer for BAFTA/Oscars since they share membership) makes me think it's not top 5. McKay didn't get into BFCA either. He missed Globe director. Will miss BAFTA Director. 

 

DGA noms without Globe Director + BAFTA Director + AACTA Director noms:

Jojo Rabbit- won WGA (Won Screenplay Oscar)

Get Out- won WGA (Won Screenplay Oscar) (BFCA Director nom)

American Sniper

Les Mis- won Comedy Globe (Won Supporting Actress Oscar) (BFCA Director nom)

 

AACTA Film snub + DGA nom:

1917- won PGA and PGA + Drama Globe and BAFTA Film (AACTA Director nom) (won BFCA Director)

Jojo Rabbit (won AACTA Screenplay)

Green Book- won PGA + Drama Globe (won AACTA Supporting Actor and Actor nom) (Globe Director nom) (BFCA Director nom)

Get Out- won WGA (AACTA Actor and Screenplay noms)

Moonlight- won WGA and Drama Globe (AACTA Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress noms) (Globe Director nom) (BFCA Director nom)

The Martian- won Comedy Globe (AACTA noms for Director, Actor, Screenplay) (Globe and BAFTA Director nom) (BFCA Director nom)

American Sniper

The Wolf of Wall Street (AACTA actor nom) (BAFTA Director nom) (BFCA Director nom)

 

I wouldn't predict McKay at DGA. Looking at this, you'd have to justify the prediction by predicting some kind of win... which seems unlikely. A Screenplay win? He's won nothing major and the film will be the worst reviewed nominee. SAG maybe but SAG win has been meaningless as this history shows and Leo already missed there. 

Edited by BestPicturePlutoNash
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On 1/16/2022 at 6:35 AM, filmlover said:

Cumberbatch won't do it, he wouldn't be interested even if offered and it's trashy to host at the same time you're nominated, as James Franco proved. Same reason we can rule out Garfield as well.

Yeah, that CUmbernatch is a lead pipe cinch to pick up a  best actor nomination for Power Of The Dog pretty much rules him out as a host.

In fact tight now, Power Of the Dog as got to beoncisered one of the front runners for best Picture.

 

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12 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

DGA just votes on what the top 5 films are. Still thinking Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, Power of the Dog, West Side Story. Leo DiCaprio missing SAG Actor and Don't Look Up flopping the AACTA Internationals (good barometer for BAFTA/Oscars since they share membership) makes me think it's not top 5. McKay didn't get into BFCA either. He missed Globe director. Will miss BAFTA Director. 

 

DGA noms without Globe Director + BAFTA Director + AACTA Director noms:

Jojo Rabbit- won WGA (Won Screenplay Oscar)

Get Out- won WGA (Won Screenplay Oscar) (BFCA Director nom)

American Sniper

Les Mis- won Comedy Globe (Won Supporting Actress Oscar) (BFCA Director nom)

 

AACTA Film snub + DGA nom:

1917- won PGA and PGA + Drama Globe and BAFTA Film (AACTA Director nom) (won BFCA Director)

Jojo Rabbit (won AACTA Screenplay)

Green Book- won PGA + Drama Globe (won AACTA Supporting Actor and Actor nom) (Globe Director nom) (BFCA Director nom)

Get Out- won WGA (AACTA Actor and Screenplay noms)

Moonlight- won WGA and Drama Globe (AACTA Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress noms) (Globe Director nom) (BFCA Director nom)

The Martian- won Comedy Globe (AACTA noms for Director, Actor, Screenplay) (Globe and BAFTA Director nom) (BFCA Director nom)

American Sniper

The Wolf of Wall Street (AACTA actor nom) (BAFTA Director nom) (BFCA Director nom)

 

I wouldn't predict McKay at DGA. Looking at this, you'd have to justify the prediction by predicting some kind of win... which seems unlikely. A Screenplay win? He's won nothing major and the film will be the worst reviewed nominee. SAG maybe but SAG win has been meaningless as this history shows and Leo already missed there. 

 

While you may be right, AACTA / BFCA noms were announced before DLU peaked in its popularity. AACTA even snubbed West Stide Story. Let's see what happens, race still feels very volatile with 5th place in Directing.

 

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28 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

While you may be right, AACTA / BFCA noms were announced before DLU peaked in its popularity. AACTA even snubbed West Stide Story. Let's see what happens, race still feels very volatile with 5th place in Directing.

 

I don't really think the "peaking in popularity" means much. It's popular and Leo still missed at SAG. AACTA also nominated Vice for Film, Actor and Supporting Actress. In 2015, AACTA nominated Big Short for Film, Director, Actor and Supporting Actor. Don't forget McKay was Globe Director nominated for Vice and BFCA Director nominated too

 

West Side Story had a later release so it could have not been seen in time. It also might not play well overseas. It bombed even worse internationally than in USA. 

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Edited by filmlover
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