BestPicturePlutoNash Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 It's also worth noting that Don't Look Up missed AACTA, the international Oscars--good barometer for Oscars and BAFTA. Screenplay winners without an AACTA nom: 2018: Green Book (won BP) 2016: Moonlight (won BP) 2015: The Big Short 2013: Her So it'll need to win BP or pull another Big Short (win WGA + PGA). But the reviews are much weaker this time. It won't be a Her since that was the big critic film of the year. I still think Don't Look Up will be a BP + Screenplay nominee. Maybe Editing and Score. Not sure about Leo yet. Want to see SAG noms. I expect Ensemble but unsure about more. So few noms, no wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 (edited) Quote I led this column talking about my dislike of “Spider-Man: No Way Home” because that’s my honest feeling about the film, but also to make the point that the Oscars can, and should, reflect something larger than the critical ego. When I look back over decades of Oscar ceremonies, I will often recall, quite fondly, the competition between this and that movie, neither one of which came within miles of making my own 10 Best list. But that’s okay. It’s the Oscars! It’s not the Nobel Peace Prize. This year, would it really be such an unspeakable vulgarity for the Oscar slate to include “Spider-Man: No Way Home”? Not as a token mainstream gesture but because it’s a film that honestly meant something to the larger public. Why has this become such an insane idea? What’s actually insane is leaving a movie like that one out of the mix. If the Oscars want a future, it would be a shrewd strategy for them to not inflict the death of a thousand cuts on themselves by using the dagger of elitism. If NWH and Don't Look Up both get into Best Picture, the meltdowns... AMPAS literally shunted the "Unique and Artistic" movies off to the side in their first ceremony and consider the big action-packed populist production of its day the "real" Best Picture winner that year. I like following the Oscars but you can't put them on too much of a pedestal. Edited December 31, 2021 by BoxOfficeFangrl 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I'm not sure about Leo making it into Best Actor since Netflix already has two major players in the category (Cumberbatch and Garfield) and three might be overdoing it, especially when he has the weakest movie of all three of them and is in a movie that is a true ensemble piece. For now I'm thinking Cumberbatch/Dinklage/Garfield/Smith/Washington will be the line-up. Dinklage's movie feels like a nonfactor otherwise, but he fits the "respected actors finally getting their dues" narrative. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 21 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said: If NWH and Don't Look Up both get into Best Picture, the meltdowns... AMPAS literally shunted the "Unique and Artistic" movies off to the side in their first ceremony and consider the big action-packed populist production of its day the "real" Best Picture winner that year. I like following the Oscars but you can't put them on too much of a pedestal. I don't think DLU will create the meltdowns since people are well-prepared by various precursors before its eventual nomination, similar to Joker and Bohemian Rhapsody. And DLU subject matter is too timely and socially relevant to be ignored by Academy, just like Joker, the only difference is Joker is generally regarded as a better crafted movie, plus its Venice win . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 (edited) 6 hours ago, titanic2187 said: I don't think DLU will create the meltdowns since people are well-prepared by various precursors before its eventual nomination, similar to Joker and Bohemian Rhapsody. And DLU subject matter is too timely and socially relevant to be ignored by Academy, just like Joker, the only difference is Joker is generally regarded as a better crafted movie, plus its Venice win . Oh, I remember lots of gnashing of teeth about Joker on Twitter come nomination morning. Todd Phillips got widely blamed for Gerwig missing Best Director (but they both missed at DGA - Taika easily could have been in sixth with AMPAS). From what I recall, the people who hated it clung to the Metacritic score and the idea of it being an incel movie, clearly existing in a curated feed where everyone held the same contempt/scorn for it that they did. They had resigned themselves to Joaquin winning a "career award" and Joker getting some nominations, but 11, plus Phillips in Director... "How could they nominate him? It was just watered-down Scorsese! He blamed 'woke culture' for ruining comedy!" All the signs along the way of Joker being successful--the Golden Lion, the billion dollars, the guild response--were ignored/dismissed by the non-fans, who lashed out pretty badly on Oscar morning. Maybe others remember it differently. It's easy to see the same sort of thing happening with Don't Look Up, plus, it's Netflix, so the viewership numbers will be dismissed as fake, somehow. The campaign is too smug, Sirota and McKay will tweet themselves out of contention, "...but Metacritic/Rotten Tomatoes!" It might get 2-3 nominations, it might get 10. Either way, Don't Look Up has "Oscar Villain" written all over it, and Twitter tends to be very vocal about those.... Edited January 2, 2022 by BoxOfficeFangrl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infamous5445 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 (edited) Doesn't it make sense for Dune to get nominated for Best Picture to fill in that "blockbuster" slot though? I really can't see NWH getting it since it relies so much on previous Spider-Man movie knowledge, despite its unbelievable success. Edited January 2, 2022 by infamous5445 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 57 minutes ago, infamous5445 said: Doesn't it make sense for Dune to get nominated for Best Picture to fill in that "blockbuster" slot though? I really can't see NWH getting it since it relies so much on previous Spider-Man movie knowledge, despite its unbelievable success. There are 10 spots so something needs to get in. Dune is solidly in. I do agree with you that just another Spider-man movie without any real relevance outside of the box office and no auteur voice in the filmmaking seems like a longshot. Black Panther was critically raved, tackled serious issues and Coogler was due a breakout. It also won the SAG Award and made Drama Globe and WGA. It's just a bit difficult for me to picture Spider-Man being on enough top 10s to make it. I'd bet on PGA, though I still think Belfast, Power of the Dog, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, Dune, Don't Look Up, King Richard are in. 8 and 9 will go to CODA and Tick Tick Boom. Gut feeling is that something like Lost Daughter gets in over the MCU. That's well-received, internationally appealing and acting+writing is usual BP path. Easy to see that being on enough ballots since Oscar voters lost their top 10 in BP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Spider-Man would probably have to be in serious contention for something above the line in order to make it into Best Picture and the buzz just hasn't been there like it was for, say, Black Panther (which was probably last that year since it had zero nominations in any non-tech categories). Even Infinity War/Endgame were never in serious contention outside of their lone Visual Effects nominations, which is the only place Spidey is a major contender (no small feat considering the last Spider-Man movie to be nominated there was 2, which won, 17 years ago). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cap Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, filmlover said: Spider-Man would probably have to be in serious contention for something above the line in order to make it into Best Picture and the buzz just hasn't been there So what you’re saying is we need to nominate DaFoe for best supporting actor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Cap said: So what you’re saying is we need to nominate DaFoe for best supporting actor. We should just give Icon Dafoe every Oscar just for being his amazing self. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 If TFA, IW, or EG couldn't crack the list, I doubt NWH can. This isn't a socially relevant film that Academy love to acknowledge like Selma or the Post or The blind side, that you can just get yourself a lone nomination elsewhere and suddenly appear in the BP list. The only advantage NWH has right now is the 10 slot rules. People keep mentioning that EG or NWH as a ROTK moment equivalent for MCU and Spiderman without realising that before ROTK oscar sweep, both TTT and FOTR were heavily nominated in various categories leading to the finale, suggest that members had been paying attention to LOTR before checking everything off during ROTK . Something that MCU or Spiderman didn't have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said: If TFA, IW, or EG couldn't crack the list, I doubt NWH can. This isn't a socially relevant film that Academy love to acknowledge like Selma or the Post or The blind side, that you can just get yourself a lone nomination elsewhere and suddenly appear in the BP list. The only advantage NWH has right now is the 10 slot rules. People keep mentioning that EG or NWH as a ROTK moment equivalent for MCU and Spiderman without realising that before ROTK oscar sweep, both TTT and FOTR were heavily nominated in various categories leading to the finale, suggest that members had been paying attention to LOTR before checking everything off during ROTK . Something that MCU or Spiderman didn't have. The Harry Potter franchise also never made it further than a handful of nominations across all the movies and ended winning zero despite being seen as a big achievement. Rule of thumb for these big franchises is clearly that either they wholly embrace you out the gate, or they don't embrace you at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 None of these other IPs like the MCU, Potter, and Star Wars have gotten Oscar recognition like LOTR did because the filmmaking on display in LOTR is just simply on another level. Between pre-preduction, filming, and post, it took Peter Jackson and co 4 years to make that trilogy and every bit of that blood and sweat shows on screen, it was a massive undertaking and its kind of a miracle it all turned out as great as it did. People will be watching that trilogy as long as movies are around. Its longevity is gonna be something like ALIEN which is approaching the half century mark and that movie is still enormously popular in the collective consciousness with zero signs of abating because everything about it is fucking perfect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 None of the major critics groups (NBR, NYFCC, NYFCO, and LAFCA with NSFC and BFCA tbd) have gone with Stewart despite her being the overwhelming presence at regional groups. She's had 17 wins so far; Haim is second with 3. Stone (2016) and Kidman (2002) were the only times in the last 20 years an Oscar winner didn't have at least one of the big groups. Curious to see where Critics Choice and NSFC land. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I think the Critics choice will still go Stewart since she's technically the frontrunner. They basically and blatantly copy what the race is looking like and since the show was pushed they'll have the Globe announcements and whatever other wins by the time of new ceremony. Now if she did lose the Globe and other studios finally acknowledge the fake Globes this year.. that's interesting. NSFC I'd predict goes to Haim or Reinsve. Gaga will not repeat the NY win and they might want to go their own way after Cruz won LAFCA. Parallel Mothers also won Score so LAFCA loved it than most 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Stewart's buzz as the inevitable frontrunner has died down considerably since Venice but at the same time none of the others has really emerged as a legit threat to win yet. Colman feels like a sure nomination but winning? I don't see it. Haim or Zegler would be fresh faces happy to be nominated, Cruz would be the arthouse/foreign pick and I'm sure one busted bait between Chastain and Nicole will make it in just because. The only realistic alternative is 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, Joel M said: Stewart's buzz as the inevitable frontrunner has died down considerably since Venice but at the same time none of the others has really emerged as a legit threat to win yet. Colman feels like a sure nomination but winning? I don't see it. Haim or Zegler would be fresh faces happy to be nominated, Cruz would be the arthouse/foreign pick and I'm sure one busted bait between Chastain and Nicole will make it in just because. The only realistic alternative is Usually the stronger the movie, the stronger your chances of winning and I guess the person with the strongest movie in this category is...Haim lol? I don't see West Side Story picking up more than two acting noms and my money would be on DeBose and Moreno for those in Supporting so the chances for Zegler getting nominated already feel slim. I guess we'll see what happens at the No1Curr Globes this weekend and eventually Critics Choice (who it wouldn't be much of a surprise if they went for Stewart since they gave it to Portman for Jackie when she was perceived as the frontrunner before Stone started steamrolling through the more important ceremonies but with a delayed show all of a sudden who knows). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I feel like Stewart has a chance ended up like Carey Mulligan last year, when her buzz last year gradually decline as the award season, to the point that she has to sit in a dark corner during the ceremony. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 7 hours ago, Joel M said: Stewart's buzz as the inevitable frontrunner has died down considerably since Venice but at the same time none of the others has really emerged as a legit threat to win yet. Colman feels like a sure nomination but winning? I don't see it. Haim or Zegler would be fresh faces happy to be nominated, Cruz would be the arthouse/foreign pick and I'm sure one busted bait between Chastain and Nicole will make it in just because. The only realistic alternative is Stewart feels like she was anointed to win but then the performance was good without blowing anyone away - the issue is that all the competition didn't exactly give blow away performances which would make them inevitable. It's becoming a race between people no one is particularly stumping for in terms of the performance as opposed to the narrative. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
