WrathOfHan Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 (edited) If Lost Daughter sneaks into Picture, I can easily see Colman running away with it again. A win at the Globes and/or Critics Choice on Sunday would help too, especially when the HFPA gave Gyllenhaal a Director nomination. Edited January 4, 2022 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 It's interesting to take a look at the predictions made at thefilmexperience.net They just updated the charts and I agree with most of the predictions, even Don't Look Up strength. Maybe I would put Tick tick boom over Being the Ricardos in BP given Lin Manuel Miranda heat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 11 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: If Lost Daughter sneaks into Picture, I can easily see Colman running away with it again. A win at the Globes and/or Critics Choice on Sunday would help too, especially when the HFPA gave Gyllenhaal a Director nomination. Critics Choice Awards have been postponed until further notice (due to the COVID surge). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 hours ago, stripe said: It's interesting to take a look at the predictions made at thefilmexperience.net They just updated the charts and I agree with most of the predictions, even Don't Look Up strength. Maybe I would put Tick tick boom over Being the Ricardos in BP given Lin Manuel Miranda heat These seem really off to me. McKay in Director? Don't Look Up is his weakest reviewed yet. I don't think a possible DGA nom transfers Being the Ricardos in BP although it's missed BFCA, NBR and AFI? And the reviews are lackluster. Belfast won't miss Editing if it remains a frontrunner. Green Book made it. They also nominated Jojo Rabbit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Golden Globe predictions since they're still being announced for some reason (if a tree falls in the woods when nobody is around...) PICTURE: Belfast (Power of the Dog)/West Side Story (Licorice Pizza) If Belfast is truly a frontrunner, it needs this. West Side Story is a flashy Spielberg musical. DIRECTOR: Campion, Power of the Dog (Branagh, Belfast) Director rarely splits with Picture winner. Only recently Three Billboards/Shape of Water. (Roma wasn't eligible for Drama). Go back to 12 Years a Slave/Gravity and Hugo winning over The Artist. But Campion has the most buzz currently and it would be a bad look to not reward the female director after the controversies. Maybe she wins Drama, too, but Belfast feels like a more default winner. Spielberg can win but that feels excessive SCREENPLAY: Licorice Pizza (Belfast) This is the toughest one. Screenplay has been the place to reward consolation or solo winners and flashy writers (Chicago 7, Steve Jobs, Birdman, Her, Django Unchained, Midnight in Paris). The wins tend to be Comedy (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Green Book, La La Land). Drama doesn't win as much, just Three Billboards and Social Network (both really writerly). Bodes well for Licorice Pizza over Belfast (Drama and more respected for its visuals than writing) but Globes have never been fond of PTA. I'd be a bit surprised about Campion for reasons listed ACTOR: Smith , King Richard(Cumberbatch)/Garfield, Tick Tick Boom (Dinklage) This season was supposed to be Will's Oscar moment but the film flopping killed most of his momentum. Still, one of Hollywood's biggest stars being denied by HFPA feels unlikely. ACTRESS: Stewart, Spencer (?)/Haim, Licorice Pizza (Zegler, West Side Story) Stewart is frontrunner until further notice. Kidman's film kinda flopped and Chastain's film flopped early in Sept. Feels too small and American for the HFPA. But they like her a lot so maybe? Comedy is a tougher call. Zegler makes a lot of sense since she's a rising star with huge campaign and sings... but Debose has been the breakout of the film. Can West Side Story really win 2 acting awards and then another? Especially for relatively unknown/young actors? Three Billboards was last film to win 2 acting. Before that, La La Land and American Hustle, Dallas Buyers Club. Haim has more critical appeal so why not? SUPPORTING: Smit-McPhee, Power of the Dog (Dornan, Belfast)/Debose, West Side Story (Balfe, Belfast) Kodi Smit-McPhee has swept almost everything so far, I won't bet against him. Dornan is a bigger star with bigger campaign and a way to reward Belfast so watch out. Debose's win feels inevitable but Balfe is a HFPA favorite and another win to throw a bone at Belfast FOREIGN: Drive My Car- (I don't see a real alternative here) ANIMATED: Flee (Encanto) SONG: No Time To Die (King Richard) SCORE: Dune (The Power of the Dog) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 It's a pretty awful season in terms of awards movie box office Quote Here are some of the most buzzed about movies, in no particular order, along with their domestic box office, as well as the worldwide box office numbers, if the movie has been released internationally. "Belfast" – $6.9 million "The Power of the Dog" – Netflix, N/A "Dune" – $106 million domestic/$394.5 million worldwide "West Side Story" – $29.5 million domestic/$52.7 million worldwide "Licorice Pizza" – $6.3 million "King Richard" – $14.6 million domestic/$26.7 million worldwide "The Tragedy of Macbeth" – Apple, N/A "Drive My Car" – $324 thousand domestic/$2.1 million worldwide "Don't Look Up" – Netflix, N/A "Being the Ricardos" – Amazon, N/A "Nightmare Alley" – $7.5 million domestic "Tick Tick...Boom!" – Netflix, N/A Read More: https://www.slashfilm.com/723071/this-years-big-oscar-contenders-have-hardly-made-a-dent-in-the-box-office/?utm_campaign=clip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Tough award season when the older adults and demo who made these films successful are shunning theaters. That said, Belfast which is supposed to be the crowdpleaser and frontrunner being the lowest grossing (Licorice Pizza will pass soon) is hilarious. Hell, King Richard might finish 2nd to last too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 hours ago, grim22 said: It's a pretty awful season in terms of awards movie box office It's still much better than last year when Promising Young Woman was the biggest movie with a total of just $6M. Given how almost everything that isn't either a comic book tentpole or a cheap horror flick has yet to match whatever their pre-COVID potential was, it's easy to give the dismal numbers for everything a pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Really, I'll take anything over 2020. Narrative of 2021 is general was "improved but not as good as we hoped". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: These seem really off to me. McKay in Director? Don't Look Up is his weakest reviewed yet. I don't think a possible DGA nom transfers Being the Ricardos in BP although it's missed BFCA, NBR and AFI? And the reviews are lackluster. Belfast won't miss Editing if it remains a frontrunner. Green Book made it. They also nominated Jojo Rabbit McKay is not a sure thing but the chances are quite good for him to get a third BD nom. AMPAS really love McKay style. They have proven it twice. His nom for Vice was already a surprise over Peter Farrelly (Green Book) and Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born). Even his nom for The Big Short was somewhat a surprise against well respected films by legends Spielberg (Bridge of Spies) and Ridley Scott (The Martian). Look at Vice's reviews: they're not much better than DLU. Difference is DLU has connected much better with a broader audience. Buzz is peaking at the right moment. And there's also momentum with its theme. Other factor to take into account is the competition. While Campion, Branagh, Spielberg and Villeneuve seem well positioned to be nommed, who else is fighting for 5th place? PTA is the only real challenger at this point, but buzz for him is fading and LP is not the kind of movie AMPAS recognize with strength. Maggie Gyllenhaal, Lin Manuel Miranda, Almodovar or Hamaguchi are already longshots in this category. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Netflix’s own numbers are only so reliable and don't necessarily translate to being a box office hit, but... Quote Regardless of the mixed reactions, Don't Look Up has become one of the streaming giant's most viewed films. A graph posted by Netflix reveals Don't Look Up is already the streamer's third most-watched English language film. Netflix reports that people have clocked over 263 million watch hours watching the latest satire since its release on the streaming platform 11 days ago. In only eleven days, Don't Look Up has beaten other Netflix films in viewing hours like The Irishman and Extraction. The two films above Don't Look Up are Red Notice and Bird Box, with over 282 million and 364 million hours. That Most Popular Films chart is for hours viewed in the movie's first 28 days on Netflix. The Irishman is still in fifth by that metric. Netflix also releases weekly Top 10 charts and they do go back far enough to cover their hopefuls for this season. You can see how well they debuted (or didn't, in some cases). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I'm the first one to clown on Netflix numbers and they 're still bullshit if you try to asses how many people actually watch their stuff all the way through, but they 're fine to compare which are the biggest "streaming" hits since Netflix is still far and away the biggest platform. Bird Box was a thing for a hot minute and a lot of people checked on Red Notice because of the names/genre but this feels like the first Netflix movie that has some of the "real" buzz only their biggest shows have had until now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 7 hours ago, stripe said: McKay is not a sure thing but the chances are quite good for him to get a third BD nom. AMPAS really love McKay style. They have proven it twice. His nom for Vice was already a surprise over Peter Farrelly (Green Book) and Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born). Even his nom for The Big Short was somewhat a surprise against well respected films by legends Spielberg (Bridge of Spies) and Ridley Scott (The Martian). Look at Vice's reviews: they're not much better than DLU. Difference is DLU has connected much better with a broader audience. Buzz is peaking at the right moment. And there's also momentum with its theme. Other factor to take into account is the competition. While Campion, Branagh, Spielberg and Villeneuve seem well positioned to be nommed, who else is fighting for 5th place? PTA is the only real challenger at this point, but buzz for him is fading and LP is not the kind of movie AMPAS recognize with strength. Maggie Gyllenhaal, Lin Manuel Miranda, Almodovar or Hamaguchi are already longshots in this category. I completely disagree buzz for Licorice Pizza is fading. It is 3rd in critic lists still and won many high-profile awards so far. It literally won Oklahoma Critics Best Picture today lol. It remains one of the highest PTAs in theaters currently in under 800 theaters. It'll pass Belfast at box office this week. Academy not recognizing it with strength is a baffling claim when we've seen the likes of Lady Bird, Juno or Manchester By the Sea, Minari and PTA is a 2-time Directing nominee. McKay's nom for Big Short and Vice weren't surprises since he's made DGA for both and BAFTA for the first. Spielberg only had BAFTA for Bridge of Spies while The Martian showed major signs of weakness throughout the year such as missing SAG and being snubbed for BAFTA Film. In 2018, Cold War was the surprise nominee over Green Book. Star Is Born lost major buzz during the season and underperformed big time at the Oscars. Vice is objectively better reviewed, look at the metacritic scores lol. He'd be the worst reviewed Director nomination in over a decade and the film lacks the Euro-sensibilities of Joker. The directing branch is usually the most sophisticated and highbrow voting group. Joker- 68% (59 metacritic)- Globe + BAFTA Vice- 65% (61 metacritc)- Globe + DGA ---- Don't Look Up- 56% (50 metacritic) Not to mention, Netflix already has a lock with Campion and it's increasingly rare for 2 studios to get in here. The last studio to do so was, what? Fox Searchlight in 2014 with Birdman and Grand Budapest Hotel Director streaks end all the time, just look at David O. Russell and Alexander Payne. Spielberg misses constantly. I would be very surprised if McKay made Oscar. DGA feels like where he'd happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedast Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 DLU getting a BP nom just because people are forgiving of the filmmakers involved to me is no better than NWH getting one because people like the IP involved. Don't think either movie deserves it but I guess the cast being filled with Academy darlings might help it. No need to pretend like the Oscars are the peak of objective high standard voting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Loves Rey Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/4/2022 at 5:50 PM, grim22 said: It's a pretty awful season in terms of awards movie box office I said this before and I'll say it again: AMPAS/Disney/ABC will go HAM on making sure every big mainstream movie will get a Best Picture nomination next ceremony. A Best Picture lineup with Avatar 2, Black Panther 2, Lightyear, Doctor Strange 2, Thor 4, Spider-Verse 2, Top Gun 2, Nope, The Batman, and Mission: Impossible 7 isn't that crazy to think about after how awful this year's ratings will be. Then just sprinkle in some nominations for Robert Pattinson, Dwayne Johnson, Elizabeth Olsen, etc. just to be on the safe side. There's no way we'll get to even 8 million viewers with nominations like this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 hours ago, Eric Smith said: I said this before and I'll say it again: AMPAS/Disney/ABC will go HAM on making sure every big mainstream movie will get a Best Picture nomination next ceremony. A Best Picture lineup with Avatar 2, Black Panther 2, Lightyear, Doctor Strange 2, Thor 4, Spider-Verse 2, Top Gun 2, Nope, The Batman, and Mission: Impossible 7 isn't that crazy to think about after how awful this year's ratings will be. Then just sprinkle in some nominations for Robert Pattinson, Dwayne Johnson, Elizabeth Olsen, etc. just to be on the safe side. There's no way we'll get to even 8 million viewers with nominations like this. Watch Leto win (going 2/2 in Oscar nominations and wins) with Morbius reaping the financial benefits a week after the ceremony followed by the Oscar glory early next year. Sony knew! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 National Society Film Critics winners: FILM: Drive My Car Runner-ups: Petite Maman. Power of the Dog DIRECTOR: Hamaguchi, Drive My Car Runner-ups: Campion, Power of the Dog. Sciamma, Petite Maman SCREENPLAY: Drive My Car Runner-ups: Parallel Mothers. Licorice Pizza SUPPORTING ACTOR: Lie, The Worst Person in the World Runner-ups: Lindon, Titane. Faist, West Side Story/Smit-McPhee, Power of the Dog CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Green Knight Runner-ups: Power of the Dog. Memoria. ACTOR: Nishijima, Drive My Car Runner-ups: Cumberbatch, Power of the Dog. Rex, Red Rocket SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Negga, Passing Runner-ups: DeBose, West Side Story. Buckley, The Lost Daughter ACTRESSL Cruz, Parallel Mothers Runner-ups: Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World. Haim, Licorice Pizza Drive My Car has swept the trifecta 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nghtvsn Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 10:37 PM, WrathOfHan said: If Lost Daughter sneaks into Picture, I can easily see Colman running away with it again. A win at the Globes and/or Critics Choice on Sunday would help too, especially when the HFPA gave Gyllenhaal a Director nomination. Can't . That film fell so flat. Had my interest throughout and then the end was just so uninteresting to spend all that time for that. Was she good in it. Yes yes. Should she win for That? HELL NO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 On 1/5/2022 at 6:58 AM, BestPicturePlutoNash said: Tough award season when the older adults and demo who made these films successful are shunning theaters. That said, Belfast which is supposed to be the crowdpleaser and frontrunner being the lowest grossing (Licorice Pizza will pass soon) is hilarious. Hell, King Richard might finish 2nd to last too As Focus Feature top contender this year, Belfast 6.9m is actually not much higher than their PYM. Speaking of Studio performance, Searchlight maybe missing the Oscar BP race for the 1st time since 2017 Oscar. I start suspecting drive my car may coming out from nowhere and surprise the race, either in BP or Best Director. The buzz has been building and passionate. It is now the sixth (and first non-English-language) film to win Best Picture from all three major U.S. film critics' groups (Los Angeles Film Critics Association, New York Film Critics Circle and National Society of Film Critics) after Goodfellas, Schindler's List, L.A. Confidential, The Hurt Locker and The Social Network. All of them are final BP nominees. The only "problem" is the film being non-english and it is in the hand of the super-mini distributor called Janus FILM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tempus Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Dune has a good shot at the technical awards. Out of the big blockbusters it might have the most wins this year. And I do agree it does look like this award season, much like the box office, will be tough on films targeted to older demos 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
