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Eric Loves Rey

Best Picture Predictions - 2021

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It's clear judging by how many are firmly in the "no" column that they're aware sending out someone solo wouldn't end well after how poorly some of the hosts in the past decade or so have fared (including people who were memorable hosts at other awards shows like NPH). And it's easy to imagine a scenario where Holland/Zendaya could've ended up being Franco/Hathaway 2.0.

 

The Only Murders trio are such obvious picks that it would be a predictable announcement but it would be a lot of fun if they did, provided the writing didn't fail them.

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Art Director Guild announced nominations:

 

PERIOD:

The French Dispatch

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

Macbeth

West Side Story

 

FANTASY:

Cruella

Dune

Ghostbusters

Green Knight

Shang-Chi

 

CONTEMPORARY:

Candyman

Don't Look Up

In the Heights

The Lost Daughter

No Time To Die

 

Big misses for Belfast and Power of the Dog. The Oscar nominations are here

 

Only 5 films in their history (since 1996) missed here and won Best Picture: Nomadland, Green Book, Moonlight, Spotlight, Beautiful Mind.

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14 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Art Director Guild announced nominations:

 

PERIOD:

The French Dispatch

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

Macbeth

West Side Story

 

FANTASY:

Cruella

Dune

Ghostbusters

Green Knight

Shang-Chi

 

CONTEMPORARY:

Candyman

Don't Look Up

In the Heights

The Lost Daughter

No Time To Die

 

Big misses for Belfast and Power of the Dog. The Oscar nominations are here

 

Only 5 films in their history (since 1996) missed here and won Best Picture: Nomadland, Green Book, Moonlight, Spotlight, Beautiful Mind.

 

Other noticeable misses in Period are Cyrano, House of Gucci and The Last Duel. Ghostbusters over Matrix or NWH is also weird, IMHO.

 

Really good news here for Licorice Pizza and Green Knight.

 

Usually, the Oscars choose between Period & Fantasy for this category. From Fantasy I would say that Dune is the only locked for a nom, with chances for Cruella and Green Knight. From Period, Nightmare Alley and West Side Story seem like safest bets for Oscars. Curiously, Adam Stockhausen can be nommed twice for WSS and French Dispatch.

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Costume Designers Guild Awards 2022 Nominations Nominees List – The Hollywood Reporter

 

Excellence in Sci-Fi / Fantasy Film

Dune – Jacqueline West & Robert Morgan
The Green Knight – Malgosia Turzanska
The Matrix Resurrections – Lindsay Pugh
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – Kym Barrett
Spider-Man: No Way Home – Sanja M. Hays
The Suicide Squad – Judianna Makovsky

 

Excellence in Contemporary Film

Coming 2 America – Ruth E. Carter
Don’t Look Up – Susan Matheson
In the Heights – Mitchell Travers
No Time to Die – Suttirat Anne Larlarb
Zola – Derica Cole Washington

 

Excellence in Period Film

Cruella – Jenny Beavan
Cyrano – Massimo Cantini Parrini & Jacqueline Durran
House of Gucci – Janty Yates
Nightmare Alley – Luis Sequeira
West Side Story – Paul Tazewell

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At this point I think it's more likely Spencer gets shut out completely than Stewart gets nominated, it's clear that the industry support just isn't there for it at all. If BAFTA leaves it out in the cold as well it's officially about to become a member of the "This Had Oscar Buzz" page.

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No Way Home and Shang-Chi missing the cut when they helped keep theaters a float is kind of a shock tbh. Although I'm guessing the former ran into the same problems as The Force Awakens did where no one got to see the movie until it was too late and it missed a bunch of deadlines.

 

Also the Animated nominees:

 

Encanto

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

Sing 2

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Also this seems to spell the end for House of Gucci's chances in Best Picture despite being one of the few relative bright spots for adult-moviegoing during the pandemic. This is likely going to end up being the Best Picture Top 10 (Macbeth's chances seem slim at this point and TTB has been hitting all the right precursors so far).

 

Kidman has to be the Actress frontrunner at this point, right? Being the Ricardos is clearly being embraced by the industry (perhaps not too much of a surprise since it's about the industry but still).

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ACE Editing guild:

 

DRAMA:

Belfast

Dune

King Richard

No Time to Die

Power of the Dog

 

COMEDY:

Cruella

Don't Look Up

The French Dispatch

Licorice Pizza

Tick Tick Boom

 

No West Side Story.

 

Without ACE+ASC+SAG, his DGA chances are looking obsolete. 

 

Editing Oscar will be 5 of Belfast, Don't Look Up, Dune, Licorice Pizza, Power of the Dog, Tick Tick Boom

 

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WGA noms

 

ORIGINAL:

Being the Ricardos

Don't Look Up

The French Dispatch

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

 

ADAPTED:

CODA

Dune

Nightmare Alley

Tick Tick Boom

West Side Story

 

Lots of ineligible films such as Belfast and Power of the Dog.

 

With ACE, PGA and WGA, Tick Tick Boom should be safe in for BP I'd think

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Being Ricardos over HoC in the PGA mix is kind of shocking to me since both have similar critical reception but HoC is far more buzzy and bigger cast, and of course bigger box office. I don't think BR will get into the final list of Oscar BP, DMC should sneak in eventually.  

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I think Being the Ricardos is safely in at this point. It's hit all the right guilds and the subject matter is right up the industry's alley. Kidman's also shaping up to be the only person in Actress with any sort of "winner" buzz attached to them after the original perceived frontrunner for most of the season (Stewart) ended up losing pretty much all of her momentum as it became obvious her movie was going nowhere.

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