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Eric Onion

2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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Yeah the thing about these Fandango polls is that they are very heavily slanted towards recency bias. Spider-Verse's trailer dropped when polling first started, which helped keep it in the conversation. Avatar 2 has fewer marketing materials, so it's harder for it to stand out to films that have trailers or are in franchises that are currently in the public eye, yet it'll be the biggest movie of next year. Really, these polls are both a reaffirmation about what should be a comfortable, safe bet of what will be a hit (and really, all of the top 10 are) and also a look into how the winter/spring lineup are looking, since they are getting more trailers and promos and ads right now. The lack of Morbius or Turning Red on any of these lists is arguably foreboding, though not really anything too scary. Turning Red especially, because it's an original piece overshadowed by all the big family sequels and spin-offs.

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6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Is Aquaman 2 really sticking to its Dec release date? Or they expect Avatar 2 to move further a year? I feel like whoever have their first teaser released will prevail to stay on the spot, unless Aquaman 2 want to try Dec 25. 

I doubt it. Aquaman will move.

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7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Is Aquaman 2 really sticking to its Dec release date? Or they expect Avatar 2 to move further a year? I feel like whoever have their first teaser released will prevail to stay on the spot, unless Aquaman 2 want to try Dec 25. 

 

Just now, JamesCameronScholar said:

I doubt it. Aquaman will move.

 

I expect both will stay where they are. Aquaman did over $1.1B with a December release. Avatar of course won't move. I expect the studios are both willing/hoping the global box office can support both. For what it's worth, I expect A2 to at least double A2....

 

:rofl:

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3 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

 

I expect both will stay where they are. Aquaman did over $1.1B with a December release. Avatar of course won't move. I expect the studios are both willing/hoping the global box office can support both. For what it's worth, I expect A2 to at least double A2....

 

:rofl:

Care to bet? No studio in their right mind would go up against Jim unless they were going for counter-programming.

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I think WB is waiting for the first trailer of Avatar 2 to drop to basically confirm the Dec 16 release date and then they will movie, I think both would do very well especially if they get China releases but there is no reason for WB to let their current crown jewel get cut into that much

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12 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

I doubt it. Aquaman will move.

If Avatar 2 have their first trailer come out before Aquaman 2 , then yes, Aquaman 2 will likely move. Both movies finish their principal photography around the same time and Avatar 2 post-production VFX will surely be more complex than Aqua, thereby giving Aquaman 2 more advantage to the finish line. Let see if JC had any tentative timeline for the trailer.

 

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Just now, titanic2187 said:

If Avatar 2 have their first trailer come out before Aquaman 2 , then yes, Aquaman 2 will likely move. Both movies finish their principal photography around the same time and Avatar 2 post-production VFX will surely be more complex than Aqua, thereby giving Aquaman 2 more advantage to the finish line. Let see if JC had any tentative timeline for the trailer.

 

It's not only the blockbusterness that I feel will cause a move, it's the fact both are ostensibly going to deal with underwater worlds. Unless WB wants to use Aquaman as some kind of kamikaze mission I just don't see it happening.

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6 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Speaking of bets, did you guys see that bet between two reddit users? This is the easiest $1000 won. I wish i was the one who bet, i could use $1000. Here's the bet.

 

 

If this is legit, the person betting on TG2 over NWH is either on crack, insanely bias, or doesn't understand the box office at all. If TG2 even makes what NWH did OW I'd be pretty shocked. TG2 will probably be closer to NWH full OD than DOM.

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2 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Aquaman 2 just finished filming a couple of weeks ago, while Avatar 2 has been in post production for over a year now. If WB is banking on Avatar 2 moving, they’re being overconfident. 

Ohhh yaa, I just realised I got the timeline messed up. Avatar 2 finished shooting in 2020 while Aquaman 2 on Dec 2021. I always thought A2 finished shooting on Sep 2021 instead of 2020. I guess Covid blur the timeline  

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1. Avatar 2 - 550MM/1.5B/2B with China
2. Wakanda Forever 500MM/1.1B/1.2B with China
3. Jurassic World Dominion 400MM/1.1B/1.3B with China
4. Multiverse of Madness 400MM/1B/1.2B with China
5. The Batman 400MM/950MM/1.1B with China 
6. Thor Love and Thunder 380MM/900MM/1.05B with China

 

Outside of that I don't see anything else with a chance of 1B besides maybe Lightyear and Aquaman 2, which I think will move its date if Avatar 2 sticks with its December release.
 

Edited by AnotherDayAnotherDollar
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Honestly a Wonka/Aquaman 2 swap seems like the best of both worlds. Wonka fits as good counterprogramming for kids and older auds, and musicals have performed well in December many times before (yes I know about West Side Story and Cats, don't lecture me please). And hey, Timothee as a Christmas present sounds really, really, really, really, really darn good.

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11 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

If this is legit, the person betting on TG2 over NWH is either on crack, insanely bias, or doesn't understand the box office at all. If TG2 even makes what NWH did OW I'd be pretty shocked. TG2 will probably be closer to NWH full OD than DOM.

The other person was Tom Cruise.

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