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Eric is Anxious

2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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On 11/25/2021 at 7:47 PM, Maggie said:

I don't see many movies doing 1B without China


China don’t play the worldwide game with their content, that’s why I don’t include them. 
 

If I’m looking for a films’ worldwide gross, I always deduct China anyway lol. It’s time we just cut them off and change expectations. 

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8 hours ago, CloneWars said:

Currently, I predict both Thor and MoM to make more domestically than BP:WF

 

I don't see that being the case but we will see.

 

8 hours ago, cmbbox2390 said:

What makes you think this? I just don’t see that happening.

 

I just find it funny how bunch of these predictions have the MCU sequels increase from their prequels by a lot except BP2. I know BP2 has had a “troubled” production, but so did DS2. Troubled production doesn’t mean the film will turn out not to be good. I just don’t see Coogler making a bad film.

 

The issue isn't Wakanda Forever having some huge fall off quality wise, it's that BP was a cultural phenomenon domestically that took it to Avengers level box office. On that alone, it will come down from the first. My prediction is a 20-30% drop.

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OW/DOM only

 

1. Avatar 2: $174M / $612M (this is a wildcard, on one hand I can see this smashing and topping the first one but, on the other hand, I don't see any excitement for this and nostalgia is not as strong as for Force Awakens or No Way Home. Anyway, people will watch this, will update with the first trailer, if it ever gets released lmao).

2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: $180M / $510M (This is bound to drop from the first one, still will make amazing numbers).

3. Jurassic World: Dominion: $156M / $425M (I think this will stay relatively flat to Fallen Kingdom, dinosaurs running free on earth is a cool concept).

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness: $170M / $418M (After No Way Home and WandaVision this will increase significantly from previous one). 

5. Thor: Love and Thunder: $158M / $414M (This will increase from Ragnarok, Thor is a pretty popular character after IW / Endgame so he will have his first $400m DOM movie).

6. The Batman: $153M / $405M (This will be the first major movie that makes people come back to theatres since NWH, hopefully Omicron situation will be better). 

7. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $89M / $283M (This would easily make +350m DOM if it did not compete against Avatar, again, Avatar could make less than predicted or maybe it is a win-win situation for both like Last Jedi ($620M) and Jumanji ($404M)). 

8. The Flash: $96M / $280M (Having the multiverse stuff in the movie will help it but at the same time audiences would have already seen it twice in NWH and MoM so it is not as fresh or exciting). 

9. Lightyear: $83M / $278M (That trailer was fantastic IMO, I think this could be the first animation movie to do big numbers since the pandemic started). 

10. Black Adam: $78M / $202M (I have a feeling this will do well, but again Black Adam is a villain of Shazam and that one did $134m DOM).

 

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I'm not going to put number predictions besides these films because we have no idea of COVID situation, release plan, etc. But just in comparison to one another.....

 

1. Avatar 2

2. Black Panther 2

3. Doctor Strange

4. Thor

5. The Batman

6. Jurassic World

7. Lightyear

8. Aquaman

9. The Flash

10. Top Gun 2 or Black Adam

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1. Avatar 2: 650M/2B

2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: 600M/1.1B (if it comes out)

3. The Batman: 450M/925M

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness: 425M/950M

5. Jurassic World: Dominion: 425M/1.2B

6. Thor: Love and Thunder: 410M/1B

7. Lightyear: 285M/850M

8. Aquaman 2: 280M/700M (though I’m betting either this or Flash or both goes to 2023)

9. Mario: 265M/650M

10. The Flash: 250M/700M

 

Top Gun 2: 235M/775M

Mission: Impossible 7: 220M/735M

Strange World: 205M/500M

Across the Spider-Verse Part One: 190M/350M

Black Adam: 185M/400M

Sonic 2: 170M/375M

Turning Red: 165M/430M

Bullet Train: 160M/450M

Nope: 150M/240M

Morbius: 145M/325M

Salem’s Lot: 140M/250M

Lost City: 135M/280M

Minions: The Rise of Gru: 125M/565M

Creed III: 125M/265M

Elvis: 120M/270M

Scream 5: 110M/240M

Puss in Boots 2: 105M/465M

Halloween Ends: 100M/200M

DC League of Super Pets: 100M/250M

The Bad Guys: 90M/275M

Fantastic Beasts 3: 90M/400M

Uncharted: 75M/225M

Bob's Burgers: 50M/100M

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1 minute ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

They literally re-released Avatar THIS YEAR. If you don't think A2 is coming out in China you're not paying attention. It's as much a cultural phenom there as anything. Jim will just push it as a NZ production.

China is also not letting in most Hollywood films this year. Yes, Avatar had a cultural impact on China, but it seems that China has also become more restrictive in films they let in. 

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7 minutes ago, YourMother said:

China is also not letting in most Hollywood films this year. Yes, Avatar had a cultural impact on China, but it seems that China has also become more restrictive in films they let in. 

You think they'd re-release Avatar and not release the sequel the next year? I know the CCP is insane but they're not that erratic.

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10 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

You think they'd re-release Avatar and not release the sequel the next year? I know the CCP is insane but they're not that erratic.

 

I think it's possible, yes. You never know how far this China/US issue will go by then.

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2 hours ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

I don't see that being the case but we will see.

 

 

The issue isn't Wakanda Forever having some huge fall off quality wise, it's that BP was a cultural phenomenon domestically that took it to Avengers level box office. On that alone, it will come down from the first. My prediction is a 20-30% drop.

A sequel can increase from the first being a cultural phenomenon especially if it’s a good one. For example, Avengers: Infinity War and Frozen. You mentioned Avatar 2 possibly having a increase.

 

The thing that’s a benefit for BP2 is the film will most likely honor Chadwick’s legacy, and it being very emotional. Which will be a draw for a lot of moviegoers. It also seems likely the media will play that up as well.

 

I do agree though that it may decrease from domestically from the first, but I just don’t see it going below DS2 and Thor4. BP more than double DS and Thor: Ragnarok domestically. I decrease of 30% is 490. That’s still a hard number to get to.

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10 minutes ago, cmbbox2390 said:

I do agree though that it may decrease from domestically from the first, but I just don’t see it going below DS2 and Thor4. BP more than double DS and Thor: Ragnarok domestically. I decrease of 30% is 490. That’s still a hard number to get to.

 

Yea I don't expect it to be below DS2 or Thor 4. I think $350-425M for both of them and $450-550M for BP2. 

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13 hours ago, cmbbox2390 said:

A sequel can increase from the first being a cultural phenomenon especially if it’s a good one. For example, Avengers: Infinity War and Frozen. You mentioned Avatar 2 possibly having a increase.

 

The thing that’s a benefit for BP2 is the film will most likely honor Chadwick’s legacy, and it being very emotional. Which will be a draw for a lot of moviegoers. It also seems likely the media will play that up as well.

 

I do agree though that it may decrease from domestically from the first, but I just don’t see it going below DS2 and Thor4. BP more than double DS and Thor: Ragnarok domestically. I decrease of 30% is 490. That’s still a hard number to get to.

 I don't agree. This isn't a Fast and Furious 7 or TDK where the actor was present for both films. A new Black Panther will take over the mantle, and I don't think it will be enough novelty to draw people like Fast 7 and TDK did. I think the film will be a crowd pleaser like most MCU films are, but I think MoM benefits from the multiverse, being fresh off NWH, and I think it's going to be heavily marketed and will deliver the multiverse goods big time. Thor 4 has the benefit of Ragnarok (which has gained a big following after it came out) plus IW and EG and also the Guardians being in the film even if for a little bit. Thor's popularity has grown. The whole Chadwick's legacy argument I don't think holds up.

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I think out of all the MCU movies, none have had as much of a cultural impact, yes even more arguably than the IW/EG duo and as NWH smashes records, the impact that Black Panther and Wakanda has had in the African American community is larger than any fanboy “that’s dope” moment. The question is how the film is handled.

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On 12/24/2021 at 3:41 AM, CloneWars said:

 I don't agree. This isn't a Fast and Furious 7 or TDK where the actor was present for both films. A new Black Panther will take over the mantle, and I don't think it will be enough novelty to draw people like Fast 7 and TDK did. I think the film will be a crowd pleaser like most MCU films are, but I think MoM benefits from the multiverse, being fresh off NWH, and I think it's going to be heavily marketed and will deliver the multiverse goods big time. Thor 4 has the benefit of Ragnarok (which has gained a big following after it came out) plus IW and EG and also the Guardians being in the film even if for a little bit. Thor's popularity has grown. The whole Chadwick's legacy argument I don't think holds up.

You don’t think Disney will market BP2 around Chadwick’s unfortunate death? The marketing will have to acknowledge it and it will be emotional for a lot of people. The media will likely cover it which will bring more exposure. Plus there is a rumor that a huge character debuting for the first time in live action(not Ironheart) will create buzz as well.

 

Soon we’ll see, but I have a feeling people here are underestimating the potential this film will do financially compared the other 2022 MCU releases.

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I see plenty of bullish numbers on Avatar 2 here. Tbh, I think A2 box office is the hardest film to predict. There are too many uncertainty surrounding this movie. Never had a film has some many factors to consider its success level, including its release date that coincide with Aquaman2.  

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1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

I see plenty of bullish numbers on Avatar 2 here. Tbh, I think A2 box office is the hardest film to predict. There are too many uncertainty surrounding this movie. Never had a film has some many factors to consider its success level, including its release date that coincide with Aquaman2.  

I actually wonder what the predictions would be if not for @IronJimboand I making people realise the power of Jim. Obviously not a counterfactual that can be shown, but I get the feeling we have shown people the lord's light.

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