Weekend Thread (10/15-17) | Halloween Kills 4.85M Previews, Last Duel 350K

[Val357]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

That Sunday drop is terrible for Halloween Kills. Still a great overall weekend number though. 

Yep, a solid overall weekend, but the Sunday drop points to ugly numbers ahead. O/U 2x multi?

[grim22]

Saw this on Reddit @CJ Chapek

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Off nearly 1m to below 50m 

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
Oct 14, 2021	P	$4,850,000		2,950	$1,644	$4,850,000
Oct 15, 2021	1	$22,830,935		3,705	$6,162	$22,830,935	1
Oct 16, 2021	1	$17,324,690	-24%	3,705	$4,676	$40,155,625	2
Oct 17, 2021	1	$9,249,355	-47%	3,705	$2,496	$49,404,980	3

 

Wow on that Sunday...this will struggle to $100M b/c its box office run will be all but done by Nov 1...

Edited October 18, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Wow on that Sunday...this will struggle to $100M b/c its box office run will be all but done by Nov 1...

Horror movies mainly sell well at night and moviegoing on Sunday naturally starts to die down in the evening due to people having to go to work the next day so the drop isn't a surprise. It still has two full weekends (since Halloween falls on a Sunday this year) to make as much as it can before it collapses.

[Val357]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Wow on that Sunday...this will struggle to $100M b/c its box office run will be all but done by Nov 1...

Even the Saturday was a bit of an indication. Halloween 2018 increased on Saturday from true Friday about 6 or 7%. HK dropped, though not by much. 

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Horror movies mainly sell well at night and moviegoing on Sunday naturally starts to die down in the evening due to people having to go to work the next day so the drop isn't a surprise. It still has two full weekends (since Halloween falls on a Sunday this year) to make as much as it can before it collapses.

 

But the way the weekend played out is not good...it had a true Saturday drop and then a wipeout on Sunday...with all the movies coming out the next 2 weekends, there's only so many 7pm or later Fri-Sat showings to get this over the $100M line...I wouldn't be surprised with a Mortal Kombat-type multiplier (with a little bump higher for the holiday), especially since this is not theatrical only...

Edited October 18, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Cmasterclay]

3 hours ago, Maggie said:

yeah, the little hype it had, it's gone. Look what happened to Bond

Top Gun is significantly bigger in the United States than James Bond, and I say that as a lover of the Bond. Top Gun 1 is the highest selling non-animated home video of all time! And unlike most nostalgia projects, somehow the iconic character is as big of a star as ever!

[Dementeleus]

Seems like HK will probably crater… and yet if it didn’t make another dime theatrically it’d still be a big hit. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But the way the weekend played out is not good...it had a true Saturday drop and then a wipeout on Sunday...with all the movies coming out the next 2 weekends, there's only so many 7pm or later Fri-Sat showings to get this over the $100M line...I wouldn't be surprised with a Mortal Kombat multiplier, especially since this is not theatrical only...

Plus the last film didn't even have good legs, this one has worse reception, so...

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But the way the weekend played out is not good...it had a true Saturday drop and then a wipeout on Sunday...with all the movies coming out the next 2 weekends, there's only so many 7pm or later Fri-Sat showings to get this over the $100M line...I wouldn't be surprised with a Mortal Kombat multiplier, especially since this is not theatrical only...

To be fair, the October 29 crop of releases (Last Night in Soho, Antlers, A Mouthful of Air, wide expansion for The French Dispatch) are all going to have a ceiling as to how high they go to due to limited appeal so they won't be much of a factor.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, filmlover said:

To be fair, the October 29 crop of releases (Last Night in Soho, Antlers, A Mouthful of Air, wide expansion for The French Dispatch) are all going to have a ceiling as to how high they go to due to limited appeal so they won't be much of a factor.

 

No, but they all take 7pm and 10pm showings in theaters away from Halloween Kills...and I imagine all other HK showings to be pretty darn empty the rest of the week...

[Val357]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Top Gun is significantly bigger in the United States than James Bond, and I say that as a lover of the Bond. Top Gun 1 is the highest selling non-animated home video of all time! And unlike most nostalgia projects, somehow the iconic character is as big of a star as ever!

I never knew that! That's neat!

 

Certainly changes how I predict its performance.

[titanic2187]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But the way the weekend played out is not good...it had a true Saturday drop and then a wipeout on Sunday...with all the movies coming out the next 2 weekends, there's only so many 7pm or later Fri-Sat showings to get this over the $100M line...I wouldn't be surprised with a Mortal Kombat-type multiplier (with a little bump higher for the holiday), especially since this is not theatrical only...

Is Halloween fall during weekend actually better for box office?

[ViktorLosAngeles]

I’m expecting 14-15 million $ second weekend. Softer drop in third weekend and then it will go to hell (where it belongs honestly).

[Cmasterclay]

9 minutes ago, Val357 said:

I never knew that! That's neat!

 

Certainly changes how I predict its performance.

I was incorrect - it was the highest selling live action movie on VHS, not counting DVD/Blu Ray.

[Val357]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

I was incorrect - it was the highest selling live action movie on VHS, not counting DVD/Blu Ray.

That still means something though. I guess it depends on if that older generation of VHS consumers shows up for the film. 

[Ronin46]

1 hour ago, Val357 said:

Yep, a solid overall weekend, but the Sunday drop points to ugly numbers ahead. O/U 2x multi?

 

Last 1 did a 2.1x

 

This one has Peacock streaming (minor) and a torrent available for download to contend with. So I think 1.9 leading to 95M domestic. 

[marveldcfox]

This movie does not deserve to make more than GvK.

[MCKillswitch123]

29 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Top Gun is significantly bigger in the United States than James Bond, and I say that as a lover of the Bond. Top Gun 1 is the highest selling non-animated home video of all time! And unlike most nostalgia projects, somehow the iconic character is as big of a star as ever!

 

It was the highest selling non-animated home video of all time... in 1986. It's been 35+ years now, and there's no indication that Top Gun is a big deal with the millennial generation. And yes, the Cruise Missile is still a star, but MI Fallout opened to "only" 61m in 2018 - even though the MI series is very popular, and Fallout had universal acclaim. Cruise tends to appeal to older people, and I'm very positive said older demographics are the ones who are gonna watch TG2 more than anyone else. If No Time to Die is much of an indication, I don't think an adult-oriented film is opening to 100m anytime soon.

[lilmac]

How did Halloween Kills make more than Bond??  😐