THE BATMAN OS THREAD - 745M WW so far

[Juby]

Asia Pacific

Area	Release Date	Opening	Gross
South Korea	Mar 1, 2022	–	$10,998

 

 

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Juby

[dudalb]

It'sopening in Russia, but with that foorage of long lines in front of ATM in RUssia, I can't help but think Russian box office is going to take a huge hit. People arejust not in the mood of spending money right now..and for the forseeable future as the sanctions really sink in.

[keysersoze123]

I wish it did not open in Russia. With rubles in tatters(well deserved) its revenue wont make a dent plus this is not a good time to open movies in Russia. 

 

That said I am not expecting a great opening but it should have a good run in many markets due to good WOM. Hoping China comes on board to take it to a strong WW total. I am expecting strong legs in domestic with great reviews/WOM plus open marketplace. 

[Legion Again]

Yeah this will be lucky to make like 5M in russia under current conditions. I think WB would be better off cancelling the release.

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 2/23/2022 at 11:49 AM, peludo said:

So, if the next Spidey film does not reach 1b OS will be a disappointment? Joker was a rarity, an event, like NWH is.

 

You perfectly know that Joker was not the usual SH film. It is based on a character comic, sure, but it is not a SH film. It is way closer to The king of comedy than to TDK. Many people who NEVER see this kind of films went to see Joker.

 

Another proof: how many people here expected Joker making $1b WW before the release? Just one person. And the OS thread was opened 1 day after Phoenix won the prize in Venice. In a forum full of SH hardcore fans, was not there an OS thread for a SH film some weeks before the release? Nobody expected those results. Not even close.

 

For that reason, to expect the same for The Batman is to set yourself to be disappointed. IMO, it has no sense.

Yep. I know many people who see a lot of arty films and don't like superhero stuff who went and saw Joker, they won't be seeing Batman films though. 

[Legion Again]

On 2/23/2022 at 8:49 AM, peludo said:

, if the next Spidey film does not reach 1b OS will be a disappointment?

Yes

[dudalb]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I wish it did not open in Russia. With rubles in tatters(well deserved) its revenue wont make a dent plus this is not a good time to open movies in Russia. 

 

That said I am not expecting a great opening but it should have a good run in many markets due to good WOM. Hoping China comes on board to take it to a strong WW total. I am expecting strong legs in domestic with great reviews/WOM plus open marketplace. 

And studios are coming under pressure to put a hold on releasing their films in Russia until Russia withdraws from the Ukraine. WHich I would support, being all in on making Russia pay the maximum.

 

[RJ55]

OS forecast for me i guess

UK 50

France 25

Germany 20

Italy 10

Spain 10

Brazil 30

Mexico 30

Australia 25

SK 17

Japan 18

Total 235 

Rest of Europe 40

Rest of the World 75

China 100

Total 450

This is low end actually for me. WOM clearly can drive it much higher but i know that at least in Asia it wont be big because some of SEA countries +Korea still have many Covid case. Also SK presale is just ordinary but if WOM is great. Europe can easily get 50m or more also in Japan and Latin America.

 

[Legion Again]

23 minutes ago, RJ55 said:

Also SK presale is just ordinary

Putting it rather generously

[peludo]

2 hours ago, Derby Legion said:

Yes

Really? so, with that logic, I guess that if next Avengers films does not make $2.8b will be a disappointment too.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, peludo said:

Really? so, with that logic, I guess that if next Avengers films does not make $2.8b will be a disappointment too.

I suppose next spidey doing less than FFH would be disappointment but 1B should be done. Of inc China.

 

NWH inc China is like 1.55-1.6B.

[peludo]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I suppose next spidey doing less than FFH would be disappointment but 1B should be done. Of inc China.

 

NWH inc China is like 1.55-1.6B.

So, well under 1b OS-China right? The debate was about if we should expect the same for The Batman OS-China than Joker did, and in the same way you would not expect something similar to NWH for a future normal Spidey sequel, something that seems absolutely logical, I would not expect something extraordinary for The Batman just for the fact Joker did what it did.

[Legion Again]

I was just making a joke about china fwiw. I agree that some fall from outlier success is fine, and Joker is outlier of outlier. Any kind of reference to it's success being applied to expectations of actual Batman movies makes less than zero sense to me.

[Liiviig 1998]

OS opening weekend predictions ?

[Liiviig 1998]

3 hours ago, RJ55 said:

OS forecast for me i guess

UK 50

France 25

Germany 20

Italy 10

Spain 10

Brazil 30

Mexico 30

Australia 25

SK 17

Japan 18

Total 235 

Rest of Europe 40

Rest of the World 75

China 100

Total 450

This is low end actually for me. WOM clearly can drive it much higher but i know that at least in Asia it wont be big because some of SEA countries +Korea still have many Covid case. Also SK presale is just ordinary but if WOM is great. Europe can easily get 50m or more also in Japan and Latin America.

 

In UK ,the last two solo batman outings both came in roughly at 90m . I personally don't think  it will reach that high but joker made 70m+ and just like joker it's kind of adult skewing . I think it can get to joker numbers personally.

 

Batman IP does pretty well  in the UK.

Generally feel your Europe numbers are little low. Batman is skewing for that joker audience and generally Europe eats up those kind of superhero movies.

it will depend on WOM but think this will do well enough in Europe to get to 500m overseas.

 

 

[Liiviig 1998]

1 hour ago, Derby Legion said:

I was just making a joke about china fwiw. I agree that some fall from outlier success is fine, and Joker is outlier of outlier. Any kind of reference to it's success being applied to expectations of actual Batman movies makes less than zero sense to me.

Even before tracking had this at 650m  .TDKR /BVS  was my gauge. Joker was always  an outlier and did suprisingly well in Asia .

 

Batman has never been an OS 750-1.b+  juggernaut. BVS had the hype but they fucking blew it.

 

Batman is very strong domestic .

[RJ55]

1 hour ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

In UK ,the last two solo batman outings both came in roughly at 90m . I personally don't think  it will reach that high but joker made 70m+ and just like joker it's kind of adult skewing . I think it can get to joker numbers personally.

 

Batman IP does pretty well  in the UK.

Generally feel your Europe numbers are little low. Batman is skewing for that joker audience and generally Europe eats up those kind of superhero movies.

it will depend on WOM but think this will do well enough in Europe to get to 500m overseas.

 

 

I already said in there that its low, it can get higher but those europe number is easily achievable. WOM of this movie still the most important factor.

[MG10]

4 hours ago, RJ55 said:

OS forecast for me i guess

UK 50

France 25

Germany 20

Italy 10

Spain 10

Brazil 30

Mexico 30

Australia 25

SK 17

Japan 18

Total 235 

Rest of Europe 40

Rest of the World 75

China 100

Total 450

This is low end actually for me. WOM clearly can drive it much higher but i know that at least in Asia it wont be big because some of SEA countries +Korea still have many Covid case. Also SK presale is just ordinary but if WOM is great. Europe can easily get 50m or more also in Japan and Latin America.

 

 

These are good estimates and I agree on almost everything (maybe I would have put the UK at 60M and France at 30M), but for Japan and China I think these are already quite optimistic forecasts, particularly in Japan it would be really lucky to exceed the 15M

[peludo]

5 hours ago, RJ55 said:

OS forecast for me i guess

Spain 10

That seems low to me. I would say 13-14 (about €12m). I know 3 or 4 million are not too much for WW figures, but it would mean a 30% or 40% higher in Spain than those 10 million.

[dudalb]

18 hours ago, Derby Legion said:

Yeah this will be lucky to make like 5M in russia under current conditions. I think WB would be better off cancelling the release.

RUssia just basically forbad foreign compnaies from taking money out of Russia, so WB might not get a dime out of Russia.

The studios are coming under pressure to boycott Russia, and this will make doing that a lot easier.

And the Russian Economy will just get worse. These Sanctions are not coming off..and will get worse,,until  Russia is out of the Ukraine which will probably not happen until something happens to Vlad the Mad. It's going to be a long haul.