Halloween Weekend Thread | D:$15.53m HK: $8.5m NTTD: $7.82m

[wildphantom]

39 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Then I suggest you lower your expectations  it's looking like 10m previews for now. With a standard mcu  internal multiplier  7.5-8 gets it to 75-85m. 

Reviews have really not done this any favors tbh.

 

Again, considering the number MCU movies consistently open at, I don’t think predicting $100 million is outlandish at all. 

 

 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Then I suggest you lower your expectations  it's looking like 10m previews for now. With a standard mcu  internal multiplier  7.5-8 gets it to 75-85m. 

Reviews have really not done this any favors tbh.

 

 

16 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Again, considering the number MCU movies consistently open at, I don’t think predicting $100 million is outlandish at all. 

 

 

Yeh, I’ve been expecting $100m for a few months, I’m sure lots of people have. I haven’t been in the tracking thread recently. 
 

I just can’t see it opening to less than Venom 2 and with much less competition. ShangChi almost did $100m over its 4 day. 

[von Kenni]

 

Yeah, over expecting is the shortest route to disappointment, which I for sure was guilty of by floating around even $20+m 2nd weekend for Dune. Comparing with the other HBO Max releases 62% drop is good or even better. I overlooked Conjuring's younger demo (almost 60% under 25 where as with Dune 70% were over 25) which might partly explain why it had 57% drop (+existing franchise brand) hence less pandemic hesitancy effect. However, I wonder what would have happened without the IMAX/PLFs to Dune? Could it have dropped to the similar cast as some of the worst HBO Max releases?

 

Domestic looks more than good in the abnormal context compared to pre-pandemic times. Without analysing here more, $100m can be reached if Eternals don't crash Dune too much and after that Dune plateaus/stabilizes for a longer, less steep run.

 

Europe's legs seem to get even better as the time goes and I've needed to raise expectations there. France has already 4 multiplier, Germany is closing 5, and UK is headed to over 4 which is a data point to pinpoint HBO Max's effect on Dune (yes, yes, needs adjustment for holidays & using past serious space scifis as baselines). All in all, great and best results in Europe for Dune.

 

Asia is a mixed bag. In Japan Dune is lucky to gross $7m where BR2049 did $10.5m. Interstellar did $12m (adj.) in Japan. However, all foreign films have heavily underperformed there this year. South Korea is going strong. It dropped just 12% on its 2nd weekend and is heading over $10m gross quadrupling BR2049. Perhaps Taiwan (Dune ~$5.5m / Interstellar $10m) and China (Dune ~$40m / Interstellar $141m / Tenet $67m) showcase Dune best by showing how it is a good success taking into account the pandemic factors but at the same time what kind of potential Part 2 can deliver.

 

Dune's numbers

Actuals / Pre-pandemic adj. (no HBO Max & +25%* across the board)

 

Dom 100 / 160

OS 230 / 290

China 40 / 50

 

WW 370 / 500 (budget 165)

 

Am I disappointed that Dune didn't do more on its 2nd Dom weekend? Yes. That doesn't take away the fact that with these numbers and the whole context of it, Dune is definitely a success even if it's not yet as big of a success as I'd want it to be.

 

*Pandemic effect varies by country, and affects differently for younger, older, and gender demographics and in other ways. For the sake of simplicity I used 25% for Dune. E.g. in my country there's no restrictions and death rate per capita is 1/12 of US number. Still theater numbers are about 1/3 of normal.

[filmnerdjamie]

4 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

The Dune fanboys here lmao

Delusionals

 

According to certain whiney baby mods, that's considered an attack.

 

Too precious to handle outside opinions.

[Felipe]

Lmao, imagine hating a movie 💀

[Liiviig 1998]

30 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Again, considering the number MCU movies consistently open at, I don’t think predicting $100 million is outlandish at all. 

 

 

Yeah I do agree but the tracking really doesn't suggest 100m for now.

Just check out the tracking thread ,those guys usually get their numbers pretty good.

 

10m number would also be lower than the BW number.

 

Mcu and large blockbusters don't tend have huge internal multipliers even with good wom.(7-8)

Shangchi had one of 8.5 and it benefited from Monday being labor day which softened the Sunday drop.

 

Recent example V2 opened to 90m of a 12.7m Thurs.

 

 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

So, it seems I lost the ability to change the topic discussion with a joke...either that, or Free Guy really might get an Oscar nod:)...

 

So, instead, I'll talk about the 32 adorable trick or treaters who stopped by my house, and the 3 enormous bags of candy (which I can't steal from - thanks allergies) that my younger 3 brought home after the nightly event.  It was gorgeous day/night, and a fun time was had by all...and of course, today, 2 of my kids have the dentist:)...nothing like trying to get that done before the total sugar bomb of the week kicks in:)...

[von Kenni]

12 hours ago, ViewerAnon said:

 

My dislike of the movie has nothing to do with it. We can happily talk about LAST NIGHT IN SOHO being a bomb if you'd like and that's one of my favorite movies of the year. You, however...

 

 

...are arguing that it's going to be one of WB's biggest of the year, which doesn't mean much if they had a terrible year. See also: Paramount in 2016, where STAR TREK BEYOND was their #1 earner.

...is getting a lot of social media buzz, which means absolutely nothing and is that bubble I was just talking about. 

 

...is getting highly rated on every possible site, which is that same exact bubble. 

Here's some fun math for you.

CinemaScore -

 

PACIFIC RIM: A-

DUNE: A-

Opening Weekend -

PACIFIC RIM:  $37.2M

DUNE: $41.0M

Second Weekend - 

PACIFIC RIM: -57.1% (Running Total: $68.2M)

DUNE: -62% (Running Total: $69.4M)

 

Third Weekend -

 

PACIFIC RIM: -51.9%

DUNE: ???

PACIFIC RIM is currently $1.2M behind DUNE's pace. It finished with $101.8M domestically. How confident are you that DUNE keeps up this weekend? After all, people are talking about it on social media, I'm sure it will make a difference.

 

I bring up PR because their numbers are fascinatingly close, Legendary has to be having mild potential franchise PTSD, and I was frequently told on message boards that audiences loved it, that everyone loved it, and I was just blinded by the fact I didn't like it much myself.

 

PR looks like very interesting comparison

 

Dom 119

OS (incl. China) 364

WW 483 (inf. adj.)

 

with 224 budget (adj.)

 

Box office looks on bar with Dune's pre-pandemic adjusted (500). However budget way bigger

 

WW/budget

 

PR 2.2

Dune 3.0

 

That's a sizable difference in profitability. Legendary wasn't at that time owned by Wanda so the $132m China box office meant that 25% margin instead of keeping closer to 80% in the same business entity (Wanda Group). So no wonder scaling budget down for PR 2 to lower risks. I think it's safe to say that with Dune they feel more confident Part 2 having consistent quality and success, not ending up into PR 2 screw up.

 

Interesting comparison. Not so close as with first glance but not either totally off when looking finances. Thanks for sharing.

Edited November 1, 2021 by von Kenni
had excl. China and corrected incl. China

[von Kenni]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, it seems I lost the ability to change the topic discussion with a joke...either that, or Free Guy really might get an Oscar nod:)...

 

So, instead, I'll talk about the 32 adorable trick or treaters who stopped by my house, and the 3 enormous bags of candy (which I can't steal from - thanks allergies) that my younger 3 brought home after the nightly event.  It was gorgeous day/night, and a fun time was had by all...and of course, today, 2 of my kids have the dentist:)...nothing like trying to get that done before the total sugar bomb of the week kicks in:)...

[Legion Again]

If you wanna derail with a joke it has to be one that people are only 60% sure is a joke.

[Gavin Feng]

major markets like UK, China, Japan have seen their all time level blockbusters during pandemic. When will North America get theirs? 

[filmnerdjamie]

8 minutes ago, Avatar Legion said:

If you wanna derail with a joke it has to be one that people are only 60% sure is a joke.

 

62%

[Legion Again]

I guess expectations haven’t been totally recalibrated after all 🤣   
 

I think a very optimistic scenario is like 11*8.3 to barely beat venom. Pessimistic lets say 8*7.5

Edited November 1, 2021 by Avatar Legion

[wildphantom]

43 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Yeah I do agree but the tracking really doesn't suggest 100m for now.

Just check out the tracking thread ,those guys usually get their numbers pretty good.

 

10m number would also be lower than the BW number.

 

Mcu and large blockbusters don't tend have huge internal multipliers even with good wom.(7-8)

Shangchi had one of 8.5 and it benefited from Monday being labor day which softened the Sunday drop.

 

Recent example V2 opened to 90m of a 12.7m Thurs.

 

 

 

 

In my head I just don’t see how most of the entire crowd of MCU fans that showed up for BW preview night, don’t show up on Thursday? 

[Eric S'ennui]

1 hour ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

According to certain whiney baby mods, that's considered an attack.

 

Too precious to handle outside opinions.

Oh we're fine "outside opinions". The big issue that got you warning points is because you were being a dick. And I'm not letting disrespectful behavior like that slide.

 

But hey, if you feel that you absolutely have to go after Dune "fanboys" for...*checks notes* thinking Dune is doing okay considering outside circumstances, you're free to visit other forums that are way less strict. The beauty of the Internet is you can find a website that fits you perfectly, so there's no need to go onto forums or sites where you don't like the rules.

[Legion Again]

24 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

In my head I just don’t see how most of the entire crowd of MCU fans that showed up for BW preview night, don’t show up on Thursday? 

Same way they didn’t all show up on Thursday for Shang Chi. Most of the people who showed up to BW previews were general audience, not mcu diehards like me. If Eternals looks less appealing to some of them, they won’t be there Thursday.   
 

Also it is a bit harder to hit like 160 mins on a school night vs 130 or whatever when there’s no school.

[MrGlass2]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

major markets like UK, China, Japan have seen their all time level blockbusters during pandemic. When will North America get theirs? 

Some experts think the pandemic could last for several years.

 

[von Kenni]

47 minutes ago, Avatar Legion said:

Same way they didn’t all show up on Thursday for Shang Chi. Most of the people who showed up to BW previews were general audience, not mcu diehards like me. If Eternals looks less appealing to some of them, they won’t be there Thursday.   
 

Also it is a bit harder to hit like 160 mins on a school night vs 130 or whatever when there’s no school.

Yeah, Eternals with 10 new unknown characters and an unclear threat/bad guy(s) and introducing new mythology is a tall order. Should be for MCU fans too I guess?

 

Personally I probably am exactly part of that "less appealing" group. Although I grew up with superhero comics (Superman, Batman, X-men, Avengers, Fantastic 4, Spiderman, you name it) and like MCU movies, Eternals looks from the least appealing end. I applaud and welcome the "being different" but for me Eternals isn't looking different in a good way.

 

Imagine instead of having the original Iron Man, Captain America, Hulks, etc. starting right away with Avengers + adding couple more new superheros in the bunch and instead of Loki having the cloud Galactus from the Fantastic 4 as the bad guy. That's what Eternals starting phase 4 looks to me.

 

Low expectations & celebrating when they are exceeded sounds much better than over expectations (Dune sub 50% drop) and getting otherwise good result (Dune 62%).

 

That said, MCU's marketing machine can make wonders, but this is a tall order even for it.

Edited November 1, 2021 by von Kenni

[Gavin Feng]

7 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Some experts think the pandemic could last for several years.

 

 

 

So these experts have lived in pandemic over the past decade.

[RRA]

10 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Some experts think the pandemic could last for several years.

 

Oh Iron Jimbo where art thou…