Halloween Weekend Thread | D:$15.53m HK: $8.5m NTTD: $7.82m

[ThomasNicole]

Dune will have to get pretty bad drops consistenly to not get close enough of 100M to fugde.

 

If finish with 95M or so, Warner just needs to re-release on IMAX / Premium theaters after Oscar nominations to get those extra 5M.

 

WW seems like it's heading to 360-380M finish, great.

[John Marston]

apparently Last Flop in Soho's budget is 43m! Ouch!

[ViewerAnon]

Some people are in for a really nasty shock when DUNE doesn’t even sniff a Best Picture nod.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, ViewerAnon said:

Some people are in for a really nasty shock when DUNE doesn’t even sniff a Best Picture nod.

11 nominations  

[John Marston]

Dune is really well overseas. Many Sci Fi movies tend to flat out bomb in overseas markets

[John Marston]

 

[WrathOfHan]

MHA ended up being a lot more frontloaded than Demon Slayer.

[Noctis]

25 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

Some people are in for a really nasty shock when DUNE doesn’t even sniff a Best Picture nod.

 

Who the hell is even expecting it to get a Best Picture nod?

 

Nominations in Cinematography, Visual Effects, Production Design, and Costume Design are all near guarantees IMO. 

[John Marston]

31 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

Some people are in for a really nasty shock when DUNE doesn’t even sniff a Best Picture nod.

 

can’t see why it wouldn’t especially considering this looks like a weak year 

[von Kenni]

19 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Dune is really well overseas. Many Sci Fi movies tend to flat out bomb in overseas markets

Yeap, all in all there's generally room for one "serious" space scifi launched in fall (or the whole year) to become a blockbuster. Gravity 2013, Interstellar 2014, Martian 2015, Ad Astra 2019 (total flop), and Dune this year (in pre-pandemic times would have been a success but not as successful as the first three).

[Avatree]

38 minutes ago, John Marston said:

apparently Last Flop in Soho's budget is 43m! Ouch!

I haven't seen the movie but that sounds pretty unlikely. WHat's your source for that figure?

 

[CJohn]

Fuck this weekend. Soho and Last Duel are fantastic movies.

[Avatree]

wish i could find a cinema playing the last duel. 😕

 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

 

 

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

can’t see why it wouldn’t especially considering this looks like a weak year 

Especially since Best Picture is back to the fixed 10 slots, and the "must have 5 percent #1 votes to make the lineup" rule is gone. The years when it had to be 10 nominees, you got stuff like Inception, District 9, The Blind Side, Pixar made it in both years...the lineups were pretty varied without needing a Popular Film category. Anyway, I think Dune will be in enough voters' Top 10s to make it, but nothing's guaranteed. The box office success, compared to most contenders, can't hurt. 

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

Who the hell is even expecting it to get a Best Picture nod?

 

Nominations in Cinematography, Visual Effects, Production Design, and Costume Design are all near guarantees IMO. 

It's probably WB's closest to an Oscar push this year (King Richard is number two but that's the kind of movie that would really need box office success to go all the way and with the way adult dramas have been flopping left and right - even the ones with theatrical exclusivity - throughout the pandemic era the odds aren't in its favor) and the tech showing might be enough to get in to Best Picture. FWIW Blade Runner 2049 wasn't too far away from a nomination with the guild support it had (Villeneuve was nominated for Best Director at BAFTA) and was either #10 or 11 that year (probably 11 since I, Tonya had one of the acting winners).

[ThomasNicole]

Dune is being treated like a contender for higher nominations in pretty much everywhere that discuss award seasons. I'm sure way more than "some people" will be surprised if it didn't get it, considering this year have 10 slots and Oscar desperately needs bigger movies on the conversation.

[von Kenni]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Dune is being treated like a contender for higher nominations in pretty much everywhere that discuss award seasons. I'm sure way more than "some people" will be surprised if it didn't get it, considering this year have 10 slots and Oscar desperately needs bigger movies on the conversation.

Yeah, probably the directors support doesn't hurt either. If the narrative "vote for Dune is a vote for cinema (against streaming)" starts to gain momentum and competition is weak, there is even a slim possibility for Dune & Villeneuve win, but in normal setting academy would wait to see Part 2 for anything like that (like with LOTR).

[Cmasterclay]

26 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's probably WB's closest to an Oscar push this year (King Richard is number two but that's the kind of movie that would really need box office success to go all the way and with the way adult dramas have been flopping left and right - even the ones with theatrical exclusivity - throughout the pandemic era the odds aren't in its favor) and the tech showing might be enough to get in to Best Picture. FWIW Blade Runner 2049 wasn't too far away from a nomination with the guild support it had (Villeneuve was nominated for Best Director at BAFTA) and was either #10 or 11 that year (probably 11 since I, Tonya had one of the acting winners).

King Richard is certainly getting nominated and is probably the best bet to win in a field with no clear favorite. But I think Dune gets a nomination too FWIW.

[Ronin46]

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

King Richard is certainly getting nominated and is probably the best bet to win in a field with no clear favorite. But I think Dune gets a nomination too FWIW.

 

I believe the betting favs at this stage are The Power of the Dog and Belfast.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

King Richard is certainly getting nominated and is probably the best bet to win in a field with no clear favorite. But I think Dune gets a nomination too FWIW.

I think both are getting nominated too (especially in a year like this where box office success is looking to be useless if every contender is a flop) but if I were to guess which one would be closer to the Top 5 it would be Dune given the tech support it will have + the fact it does look like a box office success (in a year where they're likely to be desperate for some after the biggest Best Picture nominee last year made less than $7M in theaters).