No Way Home Weekend Thread | #RIP AIW Record | 260M OW DOM | 340M OS | 600M OW WW W/O CHINA

[Samwise the Brave]

What are the odds of NWH making 2B without more omicron restrictions from now on after the Netherlands and Denmark. With a multiplier of 3 it lands 780M Domestic, considering it has an A+ cinemascore maybe more but maybe less because of the hype for OW. Nvm just saying it's more and more reasonable to think that although we might need first estimates for Monday. Intwrnationally it just generated 334M. Some markets like Germany or France aren't that OW heavy like the US. A multiplier of 4-5 would be normal, it could balance out frontloaded markets like South Korea for example. The UK is about to get closed down sooner or later i heard? Or will there only be capacity regulations? Anyway it might generate a multi of 2, 2.5 or so if the government decides them for after christmas. All i'm saying is that the combination of all these markets could still put it at 1B OS-CH-JP as a multi of 3 means 1.002B. Add another 75M from Japan after a 12M opening maybe and China with 125M and OS would close at 1.2B plus ~800 Dom = 2B

Yeah China looks low, if NWH even releases. I'm aware NWH made 200M and normally the other markets would indicate an Infinity War type performance (300M-400M) but it would have an abnormally bad multiplier for a Jan 21st release date for example since it might get pulled put quickly for Chinese New Years festives.

Sooo, 2B train valid? Really optimistic here but not neccessarily bold if Omicron won't hit as bad

[grey ghost]

13 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Ah yes, the Cinemascore paradox.

 

It's always like that.

 

When a movie hits an A+ Cinemascore, suddenly Cinemascore is EVERYTHING

 

When it doesn't, Cinemascore is suddenly "meh, not that important" lmaooo

 

Yeah but extreme Cinemascores are usually an indication of good/bad WOM.

 

Few films get an A+ or below a B.

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Samwise the Brave said:

What are the odds of NWH making 2B without more omicron restrictions from now on after the Netherlands and Denmark. With a multiplier of 3 it lands 780M Domestic, considering it has an A+ cinemascore maybe more but maybe less because of the hype for OW. Nvm just saying it's more and more reasonable to think that although we might need first estimates for Monday. Intwrnationally it just generated 334M. Some markets like Germany or France aren't that OW heavy like the US. A multiplier of 4-5 would be normal, it could balance out frontloaded markets like South Korea for example. The UK is about to get closed down sooner or later i heard? Or will there only be capacity regulations? Anyway it might generate a multi of 2, 2.5 or so if the government decides them for after christmas. All i'm saying is that the combination of all these markets could still put it at 1B OS-CH-JP as a multi of 3 means 1.002B. Add another 75M from Japan after a 12M opening maybe and China with 125M and OS would close at 1.2B plus ~800 Dom = 2B

Yeah China looks low, if NWH even releases. I'm aware NWH made 200M and normally the other markets would indicate an Infinity War type performance (300M-400M) but it would have an abnormally bad multiplier for a Jan 21st release date for example since it might get pulled put quickly for Chinese New Years festives.

Sooo, 2B train valid? Really optimistic here but not neccessarily bold if Omicron won't hit as bad

Not happening, Omicron will hit it, maybe not much, but it will. 

 

And still no release date on China so far.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Samwise the Brave said:

What are the odds of NWH making 2B without more omicron restrictions from now on after the Netherlands and Denmark. With a multiplier of 3 it lands 780M Domestic, considering it has an A+ cinemascore maybe more but maybe less because of the hype for OW. Nvm just saying it's more and more reasonable to think that although we might need first estimates for Monday. Intwrnationally it just generated 334M. Some markets like Germany or France aren't that OW heavy like the US. A multiplier of 4-5 would be normal, it could balance out frontloaded markets like South Korea for example. The UK is about to get closed down sooner or later i heard? Or will there only be capacity regulations? Anyway it might generate a multi of 2, 2.5 or so if the government decides them for after christmas. All i'm saying is that the combination of all these markets could still put it at 1B OS-CH-JP as a multi of 3 means 1.002B. Add another 75M from Japan after a 12M opening maybe and China with 125M and OS would close at 1.2B plus ~800 Dom = 2B

Yeah China looks low, if NWH even releases. I'm aware NWH made 200M and normally the other markets would indicate an Infinity War type performance (300M-400M) but it would have an abnormally bad multiplier for a Jan 21st release date for example since it might get pulled put quickly for Chinese New Years festives.

Sooo, 2B train valid? Really optimistic here but not neccessarily bold if Omicron won't hit as bad

 

Basically my thoughts are that if it opens in China and there are no more restrictions/lockdowns anywhere else, $2B will happen. 

But 'No China' = 'No $2B' 

 

[Samwise the Brave]

5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Not happening, Omicron will hit it, maybe not much, but it will. 

 

And still no release date on China so far.

Yeah that's the big if in my post. Here's hoping

[wildphantom]

MoM is going to be massive. 
I think that’s become pretty clear based on the reaction to NWH.  

 

Multiverse of Mulah 

 

[grey ghost]

18 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Cinemascore isn't something set in stone.

 

EndGame have an A+ and didn't behave like one on legs. I doubt NWH will reach 3x aswell.

 

People loved TFA and the movie make everyone create lots and lots of theories about the sequels (something that to me actually hurts TLJ when nothing expected happened). Now it's easy to see things a little blurred because people start to throw shit at TFA after the sequels but when it was release, the reception isn't different of NWH.

 

2.4 isn't that bad for summer legs of a film that made 357m OW.

 

And TFA didn't have half the audience screaming and crying like a Beatles concert.

 

Infact Han Solo's fate and the retread of ANH's ending left some people with mixed feelings.

 

I guess the SW nerds went to see it multiple times but I don't recall universal praise back then.

[EmpireCity]

Anyone who thinks this movie is going to be front loaded and not run hot into February is kidding themselves.  

[EmpireCity]

I also think $64m+ is happening today.  

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

I also think $64m+ is happening today.  

 

If we can muster just over $65M, the comp I ran for my theater will be nearly perfect.

[Porthos]

I've been staying out of these SW discussions for the most part lately (coz, what's the point? [plus, blood pressure]), but L-O-L at the idea that TFA wasn't a "crowd pleaser" at the time.

 

Has it been re-evaluated as time has gone on? Hard to say it hasn't.  But in the moment/aftermath of release? Oh let's say six months to a year?  Extremely popular and "crowd pleasing".

 

Like, really now.

[EmpireCity]

By the way mods, give me my damn purple Asgard account back so I don't have to sift through these insane ads please.  Thank you.  

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, Porthos said:

I've been staying out of these SW discussions for the most part lately (coz, what's the point? [plus, blood pressure]), but L-O-L at the idea that TFA wasn't a "crowd pleaser" at the time.

 

Has it been re-evaluated as time has gone on? Hard to say it hasn't.  But in the moment/aftermath of release? Oh let's say six months to a year?  Extremely popular and "crowd pleasing".

 

Like, really now.

 

Yea I don't get that narrative at all. I've only seen 2 films, 5 times in theaters and TFA was one of them (IW being the other.) It set the SW community ablaze and the GA definitely liked it. 

[EmpireCity]

I promise to behave!!

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

Yea I don't get that narrative at all. I've only seen 2 films, 5 times in theaters and TFA was one of them (IW being the other.) It set the SW community ablaze and the GA definitely liked it. 

 

There aren't nearly enough SW fanatics out there to get just under $690m AFTER the Opening Weekend.  So I agree, the GA liked it alright.

 

 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Porthos

[Knights of Ren]

1.  TFA was a crowd pleaser 

2. DS2 will be big, but it’s not getting close to NWH.  200M OW MAX

[Deep Wang]

$200m ow for Doctor Strange 2, please pass me what ya'll're smoking.

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

$200m ow for Doctor Strange 2, please pass me what ya'll're smoking.

 

Didn't you have NWH under $190M OW like 7 days ago?  

[Deep Wang]

5 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

Didn't you have NWH under $190M OW like 7 days ago?  

No, it was like $187m thank you very much!

[Mango]

28 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I also think $64m+ is happening today.  

Insane.