The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ThatWaluigiDude]

39 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

 

 

Top two comments here are among the most uninformed and inaccurate comments I've ever read, and surprising coming from people who've been around this community for a long time.

 

The third... well, there is information below for you, too. In fact, if you read the text in our reports, you'd understand why the ranges are listed and that those are not the complete version of our tracking/forecasting.

 

It's easy for people to criticize when they don't put in the amount of work others do or understand the behind-the-scenes methodologies in play. Beyond that, you are viewing FREE content. What's "sad" is that aside from cherry-picking, you're basing your opinions on claims you can't even prove. Instead of asking questions to understand, you're choosing the path of intellectual laziness with comments like this.

 

If you want access to the specific forecasts like we provide to quite a few clients and industry sources whom we have good relationships with -- and who understand what forecasting actually entails beyond just unreasonable internet fandom and keyboard warrior stances like yours here -- you're welcome to pay for it and get full access like others do.

 

If you don't want to pay attention to the facts or just simply disagree with our numbers sometimes though, that's fine, but don't come on this forum and attack me or the team I work with. It won't stand. Even when I'm not tagged in a post, there are a number of community members here who let me know when that type of thing occurs. It's juvenile and won't be tolerated.

 

I get that it's easy to attack people or publications, but how would you feel if someone trolled you at your place of work for no apparent reason?

 

Be better please or just don't post here anymore. This forum deserves better, and this thread is not made for such half-witted commentary that doesn't have some basis in reality.

 

To the vast majority of everyone else here, keep up the great work.

Sorry, my comment really was uncalled for. I do use the platform a lot and it does a really good job, sorry for being ungrateful.

[BruiseCruise]

Any of you guys tracking JJK0? If so what are the  day 1 comps looking like compared to Demon Slayer and MHA if you have them?

Edited February 25, 2022 by BruiseCruise

[katnisscinnaplex]

13 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Any of you guys tracking JJK0? If so what are the  day 1 comps looking like compared to Demon Slayer and MHA if you have them?

I hadn't heard of it until I was working on my showtime report this morning.  Looks like it's already booked in over 1k US theaters for opening weekend.  I didn't check MHA until T-5 and wasn't tracking yet for Demon Slayer.  I can add this to my list at some point for future comps at least.

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

For the record, I thought about tagging you in my reply/defense, but I decided I didn't want to drag you into this little spat figuring that if you wanted to comment you would.  And apparently did. 👍

 

No worries, and I appreciate what you said. I tend to ignore as much negativity as possible but there is a cutoff at some point. 😆

 

My only little peeve is to push back just a *little* on the "mulligan" and the "L" on NWH you mentiomed. I'm actually quite happy with where we had Spidey in the end (I'd always rather be too low than too high) and the fact we trended in the right direction. By the time we had to commit to numbers for publication, I don't think many were much higher with committed predictions (or even during the LRF period) . And among public trades, we were certainly always the closest and most bullish on NWH.

 

On the whole, I think the averages bear out fairly consistently. We all missed Uncharted's breakout, for example, something I'm kicking myself for because some the ticket data I see was leaning higher than the forecast we went with in the end. (Ironically, our long range forecast pre-February and dating back to last year was closer than the final weekend forecast.)

 

I've always personally felt comparing our numbers to anyone's isn't applicable because no one else (to my knowledge) commits to a number or a range at the same time we do. Whether it's another publication or even ticket watchers here, the data points are always being pulled at different points in time, and there are always disagreements on some level and/or people changing their projections (which is a GOOD thing). Even comparing to the Derby isn't always relevant since that cutoff is late Thursday after both outlets and independents have out their re numbers. 

 

There just isn't really the kind of volume of specific forecasts as we put out on a weekly basis, and in some cases those are movies that trackers here and other places don't tabulate. (Cyrano and Studio 666 being good examples, though I totally understand why because of the lower interest in their numbers, they're still part of the sphere we track as much as possible. )

 

41 minutes ago, Jason said:

This was quite some time ago - pre-pandemic - but I still feel worth it's worth noting that back when I was playing Derby (2016-17) I looked at a lot of forecasts, and the Box Office Pro forecasts were, on average, the closest to actuals among publicly available forecasts.

(The closest possible forecast over time was actually generated by a weighted average of the forecasts from different sites, but that's because there's a portion of the error in forecasting that is random - and therefore expected to average out to zero in a sufficiently large sample. Of course, that doesn't work for generating a de novo forecast. In a similar vein, an average of all Derby forecasts was almost always better than any individual forecast.)

 

Granted, I haven't done this type of detailed mathematical analysis for a while (and definitely not since the pandemic made everything go to shit) but I still feel confident that anyone thinking the Box Office Pro forecasts aren't of least comparable accuracy to the others available is selectively remembering specific examples that weren't as accurate, rather than doing any kind of comprehensive comparison. (And apparently not too many forecasters were even trying in the pandemic era!)

(cc: @Shawn)

 

Thanks for your feedback as well, @Jason. I certainly won't claim we've gotten every forecast right but I definitely stand by our overall track record and will always try to provide some insights as to why we might be off from tracking and/or actuals anytime anyone wants to ask.

 

34 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

Sorry, my comment really was uncalled for. I do use the platform a lot and it does a really good job, sorry for being ungrateful.

No worries. It was the first two that really rubbed the wrong way, especially since I don't think you and I have interacted much (whereas I've known those members and seen their contributions to the forum for many years).

[XXR vs XXR]

Speaking of the Derby, you should throw your hat into it @Shawn

 

Then you can go mono a mono with the REIGNING, DEFENDING, U-N-D-I-S-P-U-T-E-D 2021 DERBY CHAMPION!!!!*

 

 

Spoiler

*don’t look into the circumstances of my 2021 championship. It’s legit but……

 

Spoiler

…there was only 1 event in 2021.

 

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by PenguinXXR

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

No worries, and I appreciate what you said. I tend to ignore as much negativity as possible but there is a cutoff at some point. 😆

 

My only little peeve is to push back just a *little* on the "mulligan" and the "L" on NWH you mentiomed.

 

Well, I was referencing what I recalled you saying in a prior post you made with another user in this thread a couple of weeks ago, but looks like I misremembered exactly what you said then.  So mea culpa for misrepresenting what you said at the time. 

 

I was mostly trying to say that you did a great job under very trying circumstances for 2021 and any and all misses, if there were any, really were understandable considering *gestures vaguely at everything*.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

I'd always rather be too low than too high

This is my main complaint with you guys tbh 😛   
 

But at least that’s explicit, not sure if I’d heard that before.  
 

Although, that does make the Batman range extra 🤔

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Well, I was referencing what I recalled you saying in a prior post you made with another user in this thread a couple of weeks ago, but looks like I misremembered exactly what you said then.  So mea culpa for misrepresenting what you said at the time. 

 

I was mostly trying to say that you did a great job under very trying circumstances for 2021 and any and all misses, if there were any, really were understandable considering *gestures vaguely at everything*.

Oh, you may be right... I can't remember exactly what I said back then. It feels like I've aged three or four times since December and was getting very little sleep at the time. 😆

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Oh, you may be right... I can't remember exactly what I said back then. It feels like I've aged three or four times since December and was getting very little sleep at the time. 😆

 

Well I scanned your posts and couldn't find what I thought I remembered, so I think we've both aged quite a bit recently.  

[Shawn Robbins]

33 minutes ago, Derby Legion said:

This is my main complaint with you guys tbh 😛   
 

But at least that’s explicit, not sure if I’d heard that before.  
 

Although, that does make the Batman range extra 🤔

Fair point! I'm banking on our DC model for it, is the short answer.

 

In other words, we have had a habit of undershooting DC movies (Joker, Aquaman, Suicide Squad). Not always by a big margin, but enough to make me question the models slightly. I'm a bit leery of leaning too heavily on pandemic MCU films for The Batman's final trajectory, but am definitely a bit more conservative on it than I was a month ago.

 

That being said, even looking at the market-based sales, the numbers look very good to me relative to BW and Eternals even though we are trying to factor in a better final week with no streaming option (curbing BW comps) and strong reviews (curbing Eternals comps). I'm honestly intrigued why there's a divide between what some of you are seeing.

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/24/2022 at 4:22 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Denver Preview Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

641

3112

20.60%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

400

3405

11.75%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2399	214	29492	8.13%	14	190

 

AMCs sold	1745
Cinemarks sold	180
Regals sold	291
Harkins sold	183

 

Tuesday:

1061

15

1428

Wednesday:

845

55

1227

Overall:

4305

284

32147

 

0.298x NWH T-7 (14.90M)

2.41x Eternals T-7 (22.92M)

1.82x Black Widow T-7 (24.08M)

 

Pretty much identical 2 day pace as last time. 

The Batman Denver Preview Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

662

3112

21.27%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

432

3405

12.69%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2549	150	29649	8.60%	14	191

 

AMCs sold	1833
Cinemarks sold	209
Regals sold	310
Harkins sold	197

 

Tuesday:

Total

1077

16

1428

Wednesday:

Total

870

25

1227

Overall:

Grand Total

4496

191

32304

 

0.303x NWH T-6 (15.15M)

2.42x Eternals T-6 (23.00M)

1.82x Black Widow T-6 (24.02M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Megaplex

 

Tuesday(5 showings): 2328(+24)/2741 in 5 theaters

Thursday(97 showings): 2774(+413)/28165 in 15 theaters

 

0.253x NWH's T-7 (12.65M)

3.13x Eternals' T-7 (29.74M)

1.80x Black Widow T-7 (23.76M)

 

Friday(145 showings): 2509(+423)/44973 in 15 theaters

0.165x NWH's T-8 (11.87M)

1.94x Eternals' T-8 (41.40M)

1.14x Black Widow T-8 (29.98M)

 

Saturday(152 showings): 1344(+250)/46754 in 15 theaters

0.151x NWH's T-9 (11.16M)

1.92x Eternals' T-9 (46.31M)

 

Sunday(101 showings): 303(+36)/32941 in 15 theaters

0.142x NWH's T-10 (9.11M)

2.12x Eternals' T-10 (34.62M)

 

Pace is picking up here for the most part

The Batman Megaplex

 

Tuesday(5 showings): 2338(+10)/2741 in 5 theaters

Thursday(104 showings): 2976(+202)/29258 in 15 theaters

 

0.256x NWH's T-6 (12.80M)

3.04x Eternals' T-6 (28.88M)

1.75x Black Widow T-6 (23.15M)

 

Friday(145 showings): 2784(+275)/44973 in 15 theaters

0.177x NWH's T-7 (12.73M)

1.99x Eternals' T-7 (42.47M)

1.18x Black Widow T-7 (31.03M)

 

Saturday(152 showings): 1500(+156)/46754 in 15 theaters

0.158x NWH's T-8 (11.68M)

2.05x Eternals' T-8 (49.45M)

 

Sunday(101 showings): 341(+38)/32941 in 15 theaters

0.150x NWH's T-9 (9.63M)

2.20x Eternals' T-9 (35.93M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Thursday(222 showings): 10895(+1207)/31377 ATP: $14.88

0.412x NWH's T-7 (20.60M)

1.99x Eternals T-7 (18.91M)

 

Friday(327 showings): 10807(+993)/46788 ATP: $15.01

0.452x NWH's T-8 (32.51M)

2.14x Eternals T-8 (45.67M)

 

Saturday(347 showings): 10780(+1165)/50030 ATP: $14.46

0.457x NWH's T-9 (33.77M)

2.12x Eternals T-9 (51.13M)

 

Sunday(320 showings): 4868(+656)/45569 ATP: $14.34

0.387x NWH's T-10 (24.84M)

1.65x Eternals T-10 (26.94M)

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Thursday(226 showings): 11565(+670)/32028 ATP: $14.86

0.430x NWH's T-6 (21.50M)

2.02x Eternals T-6 (19.19M)

 

Friday(329 showings): 11587(+780)/46925 ATP: $14.97

0.467x NWH's T-7 (33.59M)

2.14x Eternals T-7 (45.67M)

 

Saturday(347 showings): 11551(+771)/50030 ATP: $14.42

0.466x NWH's T-8 (34.44M)

2.18x Eternals T-8 (52.58M)

 

Sunday(320 showings): 5343(+475)/45569 ATP: $14.32

0.396x NWH's T-9 (25.42M)

1.73x Eternals T-9 (28.25M)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

A24's X goes on sale soon. Listed on AMC as 7pm Thursday showings for the 17th. 105 minutes

[EmpireCity]

I would expect Morbius is going to go on sale on Monday, March 7th or the next day.  

[Eric S'ennui]

23 hours ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	181	5977	35535	16.82%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 210

 

Comp

2.261x of Black Widow T-7 (29.84M)

2.852x of Eternals T-7 (27.09M)

0.325x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-7 (16.28M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.385x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-7 (15.41M)

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	189	6193	36269	17.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 216

 

Comp

2.160x of Black Widow T-6 (28.51M)

2.837x of Eternals T-6 (26.95M)

0.326x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-6 (16.29M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.391x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-6 (15.63M)

[ZackM]

The Batman Alpha Chain Fan First Premiere Exclusively In IMAX Seat Report: T-4 days
2/25/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	181	182	47,036	56,572	83.14%
ATP
$23.35

 

 

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Investor Connect Screening Seat Report: T-5 days
2/25/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	205	206	27,288	39,928	68.34%
ATP
$19.35

 

 

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	15	0	6	80	7
Seats Added	1,757	0	1,566	9,387	599
Seats Sold	6,998	4,203	4,152	4,958	3,337
2/25/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	5,373	146,000	934,191	15.63%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	9	50	161	328
ATP
$16.88

 

 

Thursday Only:

.241x NWH T-6

 

 

Thursday Only ATP Weighted:

.277x NWH T-6

 

 

All Previews:

.364x NWH T-6

 

All Previews ATP Weighted:

.460x NWH T-6

 

[Derpity]

Batman continues to gain on the comps. It's getting stronger...

[Porthos]

On 2/24/2022 at 11:33 PM, Porthos said:

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	297	31608	36790	5182	14.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

206

 

T-7 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	135.87		151	3814		0/177	21748/25562	14.92%		18.77m
NTTD	398.00		130	1302		0/144	21051/22353	5.82%		24.68m
Dune	494.47		66	1048		0/79	11280/12328	8.50%		25.22m
ET	195.33		67	2653		0/101	13315/15968	16.61%		18.56m
NWH	27.75		445	18674		0/325	20446/39120	47.74%		13.87m

 

 

Tuesday Sales:        677/815     [83.07% sold]   [+11 tickets]

Wednesday Sales: 1026/1301   [79.89% sold]   [+13 tickets]

Thursday Sales:   3466/34674  [9.00% sold]   [+182 tickets]

---

Regal:  1312/11645  [11.27% sold] [+60 tickets]

Matinee: 232/4893   [4.74% | 4.48% of all tickets sold]

 

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	297	31388	36790	5402	14.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

220

 

T-6 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	132.73		256	4070		0/178	21664/25734	15.82%		18.35m
NTTD	378.56		125	1427		0/145	21026/22453	6.36%		23.47m
Dune	473.44		93	1141		0/79	11187/12328	9.26%		24.14m
ET	196.44		97	2750		0/101	13218/15968	17.22%		18.66m
NWH	28.09		559	19233		0/325	19887/39120	49.16%		14.04m

 

 

Tuesday Sales:        688/815     [84.42% sold]  [+11 tickets]

Wednesday Sales: 1054/1301  [79.89% sold]   [+28 tickets]

Thursday Sales:   3660/34674  [10.56% sold] [+194 tickets]

---

Regal:  1397/11645  [12.00% sold] [+85 tickets]

Matinee: 251/4893   [5.13% | 4.65% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Couple of notes Up Front.  Looks like I accidentally credited one theater with about 20 extra tickets of sales thanks to being a little sloppy on my search terms, and this has now been corrected. I'm not going to go back and try to figure out the "real" totals from the last couple of days as it'd be a headache to try and fix as it was an incremental creep of rolling errors.  The important thing is, the total is correct tonight.

 

More importantly, I wasn't able to get any info at all from one theater tonight (even waited an extra 30 minutes) so keep that in mind.  Not one of the busier theaters in the region, but still can put up a small amount of daily sales.

 

LATE EDIT:::: Was able to get the updated numbers from that theater and have now adjusted all of the numbers in this post.  Doesn't materially change the analysis below (11 more tickets were added to the nightly total)

 

All told, the Eternals comp increased a tiny bit and the Black Widow comp fell a small amount.  Such as it goes in Sacramento while I still wait for takeoff.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]