The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

Are we still owned by Box Office Pro? 

On a joking/serious note, since The Tracking team do things almost for everything and let's pat ourselves a little, we are closest to actuals like almost always, may be BO Pro incorporate our services in main tracking.

 

Just saying. Don't kill me.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	297	31388	36790	5402	14.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

220

 

T-6 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	132.73		256	4070		0/178	21664/25734	15.82%		18.35m
NTTD	378.56		125	1427		0/145	21026/22453	6.36%		23.47m
Dune	473.44		93	1141		0/79	11187/12328	9.26%		24.14m
ET	196.44		97	2750		0/101	13218/15968	17.22%		18.66m
NWH	28.09		559	19233		0/325	19887/39120	49.16%		14.04m

 

 

Tuesday Sales:        688/815     [84.42% sold]  [+11 tickets]

Wednesday Sales: 1054/1301  [79.89% sold]   [+28 tickets]

Thursday Sales:   3660/34674  [10.56% sold] [+194 tickets]

---

Regal:  1397/11645  [12.00% sold] [+85 tickets]

Matinee: 251/4893   [5.13% | 4.65% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Couple of notes Up Front.  Looks like I accidentally credited one theater with about 20 extra tickets of sales thanks to being a little sloppy on my search terms, and this has now been corrected. I'm not going to go back and try to figure out the "real" totals from the last couple of days as it'd be a headache to try and fix as it was an incremental creep of rolling errors.  The important thing is, the total is correct tonight.

 

More importantly, I wasn't able to get any info at all from one theater tonight (even waited an extra 30 minutes) so keep that in mind.  Not one of the busier theaters in the region, but still can put up a small amount of daily sales.

 

LATE EDIT:::: Was able to get the updated numbers from that theater and have now adjusted all of the numbers in this post.  Doesn't materially change the analysis below (11 more tickets were added to the nightly total)

 

All told, the Eternals comp increased a tiny bit and the Black Widow comp fell a small amount.  Such as it goes in Sacramento while I still wait for takeoff.

 

As this quoted post now says, was able to finally get info from that recalcitrant theater.  Bumped the total from 209 tickets sold to 220 tickets sold.  All numbers in the post have been updated, but the analysis remains the same.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Are we still owned by Box Office Pro? 

On a joking/serious note, since The Tracking team do things almost for everything and let's pat ourselves a little, we are closest to actuals like almost always, may be BO Pro incorporate our services in main tracking.

 

Just saying. Don't kill me.

Yeah, BOP is right to note that they beat all other public forecasts (though I think BOR is also pretty decent, they don't do long range and get the wknd forecasts up late Th). And that they're working with an earlier deadline than e.g. derby players, which is a natural handicap. I think for holdovers, small openers, and medium openers they operate at near practical maximum efficiency.   

 

For big openers, this thread and our extrapolations from it have been doing even better, comparing same point in time to same point in time. I'm not too sympathetic to the "2021 is a mulligan" argument since:

1)To the extent that 2021 was extra difficult, we are comparing predictions for 2021 movies to other predictions for 2021 movies, so even playing field.

2) 2021 mostly followed normal trends anyway for big movies, which mostly didn't release until more normalcy in 2H 2021. Pandemic-making-everything-sui-generis-and-incomparable ended up a little overblown considering how good our results were despite that.   

 

It will be interesting to see if we continue to outperform in 2022 -- if so (and I expect so, full disclosure), I think putting a little weight here is a seriously reasonable suggestion 😛

 

@Shawn, so I'm not talking behind your back ;) 

 

 

[fabiopazzo2]

So 140M OW is happening right?

[Joyous Legion]

9 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

So 140M OW is happening right?

Probably not, but not too much of an ask either.

[Madhuvan]

52 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

So 140M OW is happening right?

I think it's happening. Numbers are increasing and no review boost yet. This is going to be walkup heavy.

[Shawn Robbins]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Are we still owned by Box Office Pro? 

Boxoffice Pro has no association or ownership of the forums. Hasn't since late 2014. The only indirect connection is that I contract with them and I also hold the license to these forums, but BOT is a completely separate entity.

[Joyous Legion]

2 hours ago, Derby Legion said:

Probably not, but not too much of an ask either.

5 down, 3 to go

[keysersoze123]

The Batman MTC2(As of yesterday night)

Tuesday - 3569/4151 56622.75 14 shows

Wednesday - 26192/38750 384529.25 183 shows

Thursday - 68708/574917 920434.13 3934 shows

Friday - 65908/748305 838193.66 4850 shows

 

Definitely showing some signs of acceleration. Let us see how things go on Monday.

[Juby]

Deadline today:

 

"Everyone is waiting for Warner Bros. The Batman and many sources tell me it’s bound easily for a $100M+ opening, in fact $115M+, and the advance ticket sales are there to prove that. This despite the 3-hour running time, and from what I hear (I haven’t seen it yet) is a more noir, detective story by Matt Reeves than all the action set pieces in a Christopher Nolan movie. iSpot shows Warner Bros. having spent already $28M+ in U.S. TV spots (that’s even a big number from that data agency’s POV) across such shows as the Winter Olympics, NFL, Good Morning America, NBA games and Big Brother: Celebrity Edition. Note, Warners’ hasn’t weighed in on these industry projections at the time of writing, but note, they’ll safely lowball. That said, no one sees it below $100M."

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/24/2022 at 9:13 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New*	% Sold
T-5	Batman (Tue)	Jacksonville	2	2	841	458	10	54.46%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	402	3	98.05%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	146	0	96.69%
	Batman (Tue) Total		4	4	1,402	1,006	13	71.75%
T-6	Batman (Wed)	Jacksonville	5	8	1,166	591	44	50.69%
		Phoenix	2	2	318	245	9	77.04%
	Batman (Wed) Total		7	10	1,484	836	53	56.33%
T-7	Batman	Jacksonville	7	126	20,501	1,018	126	4.97%
		Phoenix	7	115	18,183	1,608	151	8.84%
		Raleigh	28	101	11,404	1,336	109	11.72%
	Batman Total		42	342	50,088	3,962	386	7.91%

 

*New sales since Tuesday morning

 

Batman T-7 comps (Thu sales only)

Spider-Man - .192x (9.6m)

Black Widow - 1.399x (18.46m)

Eternals - 1.908x (18.13m)

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New*	% Sold
T-19	Jujutsu Kaisen: 0	Jacksonville	6	18	2,151	98	98	4.56%
		Phoenix	6	11	1,313	122	122	9.29%
		Raleigh	5	7	792	100	100	12.63%
	Jujutsu Kaisen: 0 Total		17	36	4,256	320	320	7.52%
T-3	Batman (Tue)	Jacksonville	2	2	841	465	7	55.29%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	403	1	98.29%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	146	0	96.69%
	Batman (Tue) Total		4	4	1,402	1,014	8	72.33%
T-4	Batman (Wed)	Jacksonville	5	8	1,166	646	55	55.40%
		Phoenix	2	2	318	255	10	80.19%
	Batman (Wed) Total		7	10	1,484	901	65	60.71%
T-5	Batman	Jacksonville	7	126	20,501	1,185	167	5.78%
		Phoenix	7	115	18,183	1,897	289	10.43%
		Raleigh	28	101	11,404	1,481	145	12.99%
	Batman Total		42	342	50,088	4,563	601	9.11%

 

*New sales since Thursday morning

 

Batman T-5 comps (Thu sales only)

Spider-Man - .205x (10.24m)

Black Widow - 1.429x (18.86m)

Eternals - 1.984x (18.85m)

 

Here's where MHA was at T-5 (my first run):

892/7768 in 56 shows

[BruiseCruise]

I'm cautiously optimistic JJK can pull off numbers somewhere between Broly and Demon Slayer here in the states

[XXR & Friends]

 

Running numbers and extrapolating the data from this thread, I'm 99% sure The Batman OW will fall between $106M and $147M. If I had to bet my house on it today, I'd go with $128M.

[Inceptionzq]

2 hours ago, Derby Legion said:

5 down, 3 to go

Just for the record, I totally agree that 140M probably isn’t happening but I just had to complete the reaction Gauntlet for you

[keysersoze123]

The Batman MTC2

Saturday - 54529/784061 660960.18 5049 shows

 

This will have a great multi for sure. Weekend sales are rock solid for sure.

[Dragoncaine]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Batman MTC2

Saturday - 54529/784061 660960.18 5049 shows

 

This will have a great multi for sure. Weekend sales are rock solid for sure.

And now we wait for Monday @ noon ET...

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Denver Preview Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

662

3112

21.27%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

432

3405

12.69%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2549	150	29649	8.60%	14	191

 

AMCs sold	1833
Cinemarks sold	209
Regals sold	310
Harkins sold	197

 

Tuesday:

Total

1077

16

1428

Wednesday:

Total

870

25

1227

Overall:

Grand Total

4496

191

32304

 

0.303x NWH T-6 (15.15M)

2.42x Eternals T-6 (23.00M)

1.82x Black Widow T-6 (24.02M)

The Batman Denver Preview Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

699

3112

22.46%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

458

3405

13.45%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2799	250	29649	9.44%	14	191

 

AMCs sold	1963
Cinemarks sold	231
Regals sold	394
Harkins sold	211

 

Tuesday:

Total

1077

0

1428

Wednesday:

Total

919

49

1227

Overall:

Grand Total

4795

299

32304

 

0.314x NWH T-5 (15.70M)

2.44x Eternals T-5 (23.22M)

1.81x Black Widow T-5 (23.90M)

 

Solid jump today

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Megaplex

 

Tuesday(5 showings): 2338(+10)/2741 in 5 theaters

Thursday(104 showings): 2976(+202)/29258 in 15 theaters

 

0.256x NWH's T-6 (12.80M)

3.04x Eternals' T-6 (28.88M)

1.75x Black Widow T-6 (23.15M)

 

Friday(145 showings): 2784(+275)/44973 in 15 theaters

0.177x NWH's T-7 (12.73M)

1.99x Eternals' T-7 (42.47M)

1.18x Black Widow T-7 (31.03M)

 

Saturday(152 showings): 1500(+156)/46754 in 15 theaters

0.158x NWH's T-8 (11.68M)

2.05x Eternals' T-8 (49.45M)

 

Sunday(101 showings): 341(+38)/32941 in 15 theaters

0.150x NWH's T-9 (9.63M)

2.20x Eternals' T-9 (35.93M)

The Batman Megaplex

 

Tuesday(5 showings): 2343(+5)/2741 in 5 theaters

Thursday(110 showings): 3194(+218)/30278in 15 theaters

 

0.261x NWH's T-5 (13.05M)

3.06x Eternals' T-5 (29.07M)

1.73x Black Widow T-5 (22.84M)

 

Friday(145 showings): 3059(+275)/44973 in 15 theaters

0.187x NWH's T-6 (13.45M)

2.08x Eternals' T-6 (44.39M)

1.17x Black Widow T-6 (30.77M)

 

Saturday(152 showings): 1666(+166)/46754 in 15 theaters

0.164x NWH's T-7 (12.12M)

2.15x Eternals' T-7 (51.86M)

 

Sunday(101 showings): 398(+57)/32941 in 15 theaters

0.166x NWH's T-8 (10.65M)

2.38x Eternals' T-8 (38.87M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Thursday(226 showings): 11565(+670)/32028 ATP: $14.86

0.430x NWH's T-6 (21.50M)

2.02x Eternals T-6 (19.19M)

 

Friday(329 showings): 11587(+780)/46925 ATP: $14.97

0.467x NWH's T-7 (33.59M)

2.14x Eternals T-7 (45.67M)

 

Saturday(347 showings): 11551(+771)/50030 ATP: $14.42

0.466x NWH's T-8 (34.44M)

2.18x Eternals T-8 (52.58M)

 

Sunday(320 showings): 5343(+475)/45569 ATP: $14.32

0.396x NWH's T-9 (25.42M)

1.73x Eternals T-9 (28.25M)

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Thursday(226 showings): 12085(+520)/32028 ATP: $14.83

0.441x NWH's T-5 (22.05M)

2.05x Eternals T-5 (19.48M)

 

Friday(329 showings): 12514(+927)/46925 ATP: $14.94

0.489x NWH's T-6 (35.17M)

2.22x Eternals T-6 (47.37M)

 

Saturday(347 showings): 12955(+1404)/50030 ATP: $14.38

0.504x NWH's T-7 (37.25M)

2.30x Eternals T-7 (55.48M)

 

Sunday(320 showings): 6046(+703)/45569 ATP: $14.22

0.422x NWH's T-8 (27.08M)

1.87x Eternals T-8 (30.54M)

[Shawn Robbins]

On 2/25/2022 at 5:26 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Denver Preview Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

662

3112

21.27%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

432

3405

12.69%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2549	150	29649	8.60%	14	191

 

AMCs sold	1833
Cinemarks sold	209
Regals sold	310
Harkins sold	197

 

Tuesday:

Total

1077

16

1428

Wednesday:

Total

870

25

1227

Overall:

Grand Total

4496

191

32304

 

0.303x NWH T-6 (15.15M)

2.42x Eternals T-6 (23.00M)

1.82x Black Widow T-6 (24.02M)

FWIW, this is similar to the low-mid range projections we are tracking from a few markets for Thu only and ignoring Tue+Wed grosses. (These same markets pointed to $13-15M Thu+Fri combined for Uncharted last week but I opted to play it safe and sandbag those projections due to poor reviews.)

 

Not trying to say yours or anyone's data is wrong, just offering a bit of insight as to why our range at BOP is still saying $130M for the low end since it seems to be a point of contention.

 

I know a few of you have replied to earlier comments and I'll try to reply back over the weekend or Monday sometime.