The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

*does a super quick check of Morbius locally*

*sees it's already at around 87% of Let There Be Carnage's 1st day with a few more hours left in the day*

*pauses*

 

 

 

 

Note: Morbius is five days closer to release than V2 was on its first day, plus can't be guaranteed to have any sort of rush toward the end.  But it blew past my internal benchmark I was setting, so might as well see if it gets even remotely close.  Plus it's also already over 50% of Shang-Chi's first day, with some time left on the clock, and that was a T-17 release which helps the comp a lot.  And if that comp even suggests something in the 6-7 range, I really suppose I should just in case.

 

Do reserve to pull the plug during the run, however.

 

Now to check Sonic 2...

Edited March 14, 2022 by Porthos

[misterpepp]

Important to remember just how poor the response to that 2014 Ninja Turtles movie was. A B CinemaScore for a big-budget tentpole like that was crazy bad.

[Joyous Legion]

10 hours ago, KnucklesXXR said:

Based on starting show count, theaters definitely don’t seem to hold that opinion. It would need to go over $76M OW for a top 5 huh? 

Yep, SC is the bar.    
 

Alternatively if Sonic 2 is around the first or worse and Morbius breaks out, we have a realistic shot at achieving an all CBM post-pandemic top 10 weekend grosses   

 

(NWH, DS2, Bat, V2, BW, SC, Et, Morb, +NWH&DS2 2nd weekends)

Edited March 14, 2022 by Villain Legion

[DAJK]

@Porthos numbers for Morbius

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, DAJK said:

@Porthos numbers for Morbius

 

FWIW, I am seeing a somewhat familiar split starting to develop with urban-suburban on the one side and the outlying communities on the other.  Exceedingly early days, but could mean that this plays stronger in some areas with favorable demos than others as it is playing far weaker than other CBMs in some theaters that usually do well.

 

As for Sonic 2, I forgot that Sonic had a damn near 20x multi off a 3m preview.

 

...

 

Yeah.  No.    I'd have to see some much stronger sales than what I just saw locally to want to take the time for that.

[Old Spice]

Salt Lake not jumping on the Morbius train yet. Currently only 2 tix out of 442 sold for preview night at the Cinemark Sugarhouse. 

 

Lost City and Sonic are looking equally dismal with a total of eight tickets sold between them. 

[Joyous Legion]

Sonic 2 should have a lower IM of course. 4x15?

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Villain Legion said:

Sonic 2 should have a lower IM of course. 4x15?

 

Oh, naturally.  Even so, I'd want it to point to 5m-6m to make it worth my time.  4m to 5m is more in the "pass" catagory.

 

BTW, interesting tidbit about Sonic 2.  It's not getting IMAX locally, as that indeed is going to Morbius.  IS getting XD from Cinemark, and Giant Screens from Cinema West as well as splitting 4DX/RPX over at Regal.

 

Something to keep in mind when looking at PLF numbers.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Porthos

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Oh, naturally.  Even so, I'd want it to point to 5m-6m to make it worth my time.  4m to 5m is more in the "pass" catagory.

 

BTW, interesting tidbit about Sonic 2.  It's not getting IMAX locally, as that indeed is going to Morbius.  IS getting XD from Cinemark, and Giant Screens from Cinema West as well as splitting 4DX/RPX over at Regal.

 

Something to keep in mind when looking at PLF numbers.

Do you think Doctor Strange will do enough for you to track it? #GenuinelyCurious #TotallyNotFacetious #TrollingIsBad

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, KnucklesXXR said:

Do you think Doctor Strange will do enough for you to track it? #GenuinelyCurious #TotallyNotFacetious #TrollingIsBad

 

Depends if we're in the 'verse where UltraMega DeltaCron is rampaging, obviously. 

[MrPink]

Sacramento is like fuck them Batman films, all in on the #MorbiusSweep

[grim22]

25 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Depends if we're in the 'verse where UltraMega DeltaCron is rampaging, obviously. 

Disney already sending Lightyear to Disney+ upon hearing the phrase Deltacron

[BruiseCruise]

34 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Depends if we're in the 'verse where UltraMega DeltaCron is rampaging, obviously. 

Sounds like a good villain for Transformers 6

[YM!]

5 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I think Sonic 2 presales will point to a lower opening than the first film. No clue how walkups will be compared to the first film (which iirc had very good walkups), but I think the high end here is the first film's OW. I feel like a lot of the novelty is gone, and at least based on what I've seen anecdoctally, the 18-30 year old audience is going to have lower turn out. 

I can kind of see that too. Though fan favorites like Tails and Knuckles and a more action packed scope help, the family films haven’t done well this past few years apart from Sing 2. Also something about the movie gives me Lego Batman vibes. It won’t completely crash like Lego 2 or TMNT2 but I can see the OW being smaller mainly due to it, albeit family friendly opens against a lot of other geek friendly stuff like Morbius and Dumbledore. It also loses the PLFs it needs to Ambulance.
 

Morbius and Dumbledore together should equate to around $80m combined opening weekend wise. The former I can see opening to $50m cause the GA loves Marvel and the latter despite JK Rowling being a huge transphobic piece of shit still has enough gas for an OW around Dark Phoenix.

[SpiderByte]

1 hour ago, datpepper said:

Important to remember just how poor the response to that 2014 Ninja Turtles movie was. A B CinemaScore for a big-budget tentpole like that was crazy bad.

Yep. It opened taking the number one spot from Guardians of the Galaxy, and then Guardians took the spot back the week after.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Yep. It opened taking the number one spot from Guardians of the Galaxy, and then Guardians took the spot back the week after.

Not pretending that Ninja Turtles was beloved but it had some strong legs. Didn’t it do a 3x multiple?

[keysersoze123]

With entire country thinking COVID Is done, I am expecting another surge in next month or 2. There is this news which is a leading indicator. That said Spidey did handle omicron nonchalantly and so movies that is attractive to audience will do whatever it should whether there is another wave or not. 

[Flopped]

What does the tracking look like for Lost City? 

[SpiderByte]

I mean at this point I don't see how Morbius can't get more awareness than being in front of every movie for two consecutive years. I think covid or not it's maxed out.

[cax16]

@DAJKis right about sales here for Morbius, not great so far. I’m sure it will pick up but not a lot of showtimes being offered right now but that will change obviously. 
 

My 24 theatre count I do has 497 tickets sold so far in all the theatres.  I didn’t do full first day count of Batman and obviously that’s not really a fair comparison but Batman had more seats sold at 2 theatres then morbius has at 24. The earliest count I have for Batman was day 4 of presales and that number is over 6000.