The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[misterpepp]

1 hour ago, YourMother said:

Not pretending that Ninja Turtles was beloved but it had some strong legs. Didn’t it do a 3x multiple?

 

That was more so due to the extreme dead zone that was late Aug/early Sep of 2014, which included one of the worst pre-COVID weekends in years over the Labor Day that The Identical opened (Classic movie for all the wrong reasons). Don't remember there being anything else for families out at the time, either.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

With entire country thinking COVID Is done, I am expecting another surge in next month or 2. There is this news which is a leading indicator. That said Spidey did handle omicron nonchalantly and so movies that is attractive to audience will do whatever it should whether there is another wave or not. 

Spring break will definitely cause spikes 

[Joyous Legion]

I’m looking for Morbius to do around 7*7 (close to the mid range of BOP). For previews around 1/3 of Batman, a ps start of less than 10% could suffice I think.

[filmlover]

Sonic has been reminding me this whole time of Scooby-Doo, The Smurfs, etc. Blockbuster family-targeted CGI/live-action hybrids that spawned underperforming sequels.

[Eric is Quiet]

It's 5 different movies to tally up sales for, I got a full tank of patience, half a season of Hell's Kitchen to put on in the background, it's dark, and I'm wearing sunglasses.

 

[Eric is Quiet]

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	28	1099	4387	25.05%

 

Comp

0.726x of Mortal Kombat 3 Days Before Release (6.6M)

5.440x of Last Night in Soho T-3 (3.81M)

 

Well these weird anime things keep getting wide releases. Might as well humor them. Didn't track Demon Slayer or My Hero, so I'm going into this sucker blind!

[Eric is Quiet]

X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	14	74	1981	0.35%

 

Comp

2.643x of The Night House T-3 (687K)

1.298x of Antlers T-3 (480K)

0.366x of Last Night in Soho T-3 (179K)

 

Soho got a bump from early Dolby shows/Wright fans, so I say this isn't all that bad for a niche film like this. Good on them.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Sonic has been reminding me this whole time of Scooby-Doo, The Smurfs, etc. Blockbuster family-targeted CGI/live-action hybrids that spawned underperforming sequels.

Should I do the honors and get the thread for the inevitable animated reboot ready?

[filmlover]

Anyone else getting a feeling that The Northman is getting either dumped or delayed? Odd how it's just a few weeks away from opening (and set to play in Dolby Cinema, according to marketing materials) and yet it seems like they've done nothing to promote it since the trailer landed in December.

[Eric is Quiet]

On 3/13/2022 at 11:04 PM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Lost City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	146	12340	1.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp

2.920x of Jungle Cruise T-11 (7.88M)

0.437x of Scream T-11 (1.53M)

0.492x of Uncharted T-11 (1.82M)

The Lost City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	163	12340	1.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 17

 

Comp

2.763x of Jungle Cruise T-10 (7.46M)

0.430x of Scream T-10 (1.5M)

0.541x of Uncharted T-10 (2M)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Anyone else getting a feeling that The Northman is getting either dumped or delayed? Odd how it's just a few weeks away from opening (and set to play in Dolby Cinema, according to marketing materials) and yet it seems like they've done nothing to promote it since the trailer landed in December.

Yeah it's going to flop miserably. Focus is barely doing anything with it. Should be Universal but Universal has Ambulance (which is getting some promotion but still feels minor). It's a big viking epic with large scale action and famous actors--it could do well with proper campaign. 

 

It also doesn't have the brand of an A24 like Lighthouse and The Witch which appeals to young demographic which means it needs real advertising 

[Eric is Quiet]

Morbius Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	378	14751	2.56%

 

Comp

0.741x of Shang-Chi T-17 (6.52M)

0.861x of Venom 2 T-17 (9.99M)

0.298x of Eternals T-17 (2.83M)

 

I guess Canada just doesn't care about Jared Leto? Valid response of course.

 

Anyways, while nothing crazy, I'm still more than confident in my "Marvel = Robots" theory.

[Eric is Quiet]

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	174	9289	1.87%

 

Comp

0.120x of Sing 2 w/ Early Access (1.17M)

4.833x of Sing 2 WITHOUT Early Access (39.32M)

 

Adjusted Comp

4.928x of Sonic the Hedgehog's First Day of Sales (14.79M)

 

Okay so like yeah, obviously these comps are gonna crash to reality. I also don't really have any really good comps to use at this point in time. But all the talk about the film being a potential dud and drop like a rock from the last movie seems suuuuuuuper premature if you ask me.

[charlie Jatinder]

38 minutes ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	174	9289	1.87%

 

Comp

0.120x of Sing 2 w/ Early Access (1.17M)

4.833x of Sing 2 WITHOUT Early Access (39.32M)

 

Adjusted Comp

4.928x of Sonic the Hedgehog's First Day of Sales (14.79M)

 

Okay so like yeah, obviously these comps are gonna crash to reality. I also don't really have any really good comps to use at this point in time. But all the talk about the film being a potential dud and drop like a rock from the last movie seems suuuuuuuper premature if you ask me.

Why Sing 2 comp? I think Uncharted comp may be good. If Uncharted sales started later, I guess do first x days sales for a few days?

Edited March 15, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Pinacolada]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Anyone else getting a feeling that The Northman is getting either dumped or delayed? Odd how it's just a few weeks away from opening (and set to play in Dolby Cinema, according to marketing materials) and yet it seems like they've done nothing to promote it since the trailer landed in December.

I've been saying this for a while but yeah I have no fucking idea what they're doing with that.

 

The trailer came out over 4 months away from its release date. If they really only wanted to rock with one trailer, then they absolutely should have given it a superbowl spot (on their own network).

 

Since they didn't go down that route, they absolutely should have released a 2nd and final trailer, this week would have been ideal. It's getting too close to release now to actually release a new trailer I feel like (5 weeks from Domestic release, less in some markets).

 

At the absolute least, it should have premiered at SXSW and got some good online buzz going.

 

Idk wtf they're doing. Social media likes and views of YouTube and Twitter absolutely indicate this has appeal to do decently well and appeal to General audiences like a Revenant (though obviously not as big). I seriously think, if played right and with the help of stellar reviews, The Northman could open to $20m+. But they're just doing nothing with it. Times running out....

Edited March 15, 2022 by Pinacolada

[Porthos]

*does a SUPER Q&D check of Sonic 2*

*comps against .85xDetective Pikachu*

 

...

 

Well, crap. 

 

Only current comp I really have that is remotely in the ballpark is Ghostbusters: Afterlife, and that's pointing to 4.2m.  But G:A is T-17 vs S2's T-24.

 

A pure Detective Pikachu comp, on the other hand, points to 6.6m which... No.  Just. Absolutely. ***NOT***. 

 

If I do a 15% off rule of thumb though, that'd point to 5.6m.  But Pika launched at T-29, not T-24.  Plus I still kinda think Current Sacto ≈ .8 x 2019 Sacto, or 5.3m.  

 

...

 

Sigh.

 

Gonna chew on it while I compile Morbius numbers. Might just collect it on home computer and monitor, but I might have to resample and make a proper track. 

[Porthos]

Morbius Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	17244	17611	367	2.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

367

 

Day One Comps 

	%		Sold  Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	66.25		554	554		0/92	15096/15650	3.54%		5847	6.28%		5.82m
LTBC	105.46		348	348		0/127	21962/22310	1.56%		7712	4.76%		12.23m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Morbius' current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       74/4509  [1.64% sold]

Matinee:   23/1529  [1.50% | 6.27% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Yeah yeah, enjoy the Let There Be Carnage comp while you can as it's gonna come down in a hurry, especially when I shift to T-x comps in about three or so days (LTBC has five more days of pre-sales and at this level of sales, that matters a great deal).  For those who care, the T-17 comp for LTBC is 6.31m, which is a hell of a lot more reasonable than 12m+, so even when I shift over on Thursday, it's not going to go under the current comp of Shang-Chi.

 

Speaking of which, decided that out all of the other Marvel films, Shang-Chi was a reasonable contra-example, mostly due to being the exact same length of pre-sales.  Can't think of much else which would be better, so for now that's where we stand.

Edited March 18, 2022 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

Obviously a lot can change from first day, but kinda looks like 8ish for Morbius? Going to 55-60?   
 

Sonic has worse comps and more volatile IM so I won’t put down numbers, but looks like a good start to me and wouldn’t be surprised if it beats Morbius.

[charlie Jatinder]

Just in case we already don't know, Sonic 2 also has Early access on WED. 

This is getting really annoying now.

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Just in case we already don't know, Sonic 2 also has Early access on WED. 

This is getting really annoying now.

Wed shows+ 3 on Th is new normal imo. Only questions whether DS2 does 3+no wed or 3+ wed.