The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BruiseCruise]

https://variety.com/2022/film/features/jared-leto-morbius-marvel-wecrashed-wework-1235205322/

 

$75m budget for Morbius, man Sony is really good at keeping costs down with their stuff recently

[AdrianL]

9 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

https://variety.com/2022/film/features/jared-leto-morbius-marvel-wecrashed-wework-1235205322/

 

$75m budget for Morbius, man Sony is really good at keeping costs down with their stuff recently

Jesus. So $250m WW would be a win lol go Sony

[Eric is Anxious]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-the-batman-eyes-third-1-frame-as-jujutsu-kaisen-0-the-movie-the-outfit-umma-and-x-debut/

 

Quote

Weekend Forecast Ranges

The Batman
Second Weekend Range: $40 — 48 million

Jujutsu Kaisen 0: The Movie
Second Weekend Range: $6 — 11 million

The Outfit
Second Weekend Range: $750K — $2.5 million

Umma
Second Weekend Range: $500K — $1.5 million

X
Second Weekend Range: $2 — 5 million

 

Weekend Forecast & Location Counts

Boxoffice projects between an 18 to 28 percent decline for this weekend’s top ten films from last weekend’s $99.3 million top ten aggregate. 

 

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 20	Location Count	% Change from Last Wknd
The Batman	Warner Bros.	$44,000,000	$307,600,000	~4,400	-34%
Uncharted	Sony Pictures / Columbia	$8,300,000	$125,700,000	~3,700	-10%
Jujutsu Kaisen 0: The Movie	Funimation	$8,000,000	$8,000,000	~2,500	NEW
Dog	United Artists Releasing	$4,700,000	$54,700,000	~3,300	-9%
Spider-Man: No Way Home	Sony Pictures / Columbia & Marvel Studios	$3,800,000	$798,000,000	~2,600	-6%
X	A24	$3,300,000	$3,300,000	~3,000	NEW
Death on the Nile	Disney / 20th Century Studios	$2,100,000	$43,900,000	~2,200	-13%
Sing 2	Universal Pictures	$1,500,000	$158,400,000	~1,700	-6%
The Outfit	Focus Features	$1,300,000	$1,300,000	~1,500	NEW
Umma	Sony Pictures	$900,000	$900,000	~850	NEW

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 minutes ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-the-batman-eyes-third-1-frame-as-jujutsu-kaisen-0-the-movie-the-outfit-umma-and-x-debut/

 

 

I’ll take the way over on JJK

[Issac Newton]

Correction :

Jujutsu Kaisen Movie 0 at $8.40M

Uncharted at $8.00M 

 

Weekend Forecast Ranges

 

The Batman

Second Weekend Range: $40 — 48 million

 

Jujutsu Kaisen 0: The Movie

Second Weekend Range: $7 — 12 million

 

The Outfit

Second Weekend Range: $750K — $2.5 million

 

Umma

Second Weekend Range: $500K — $1.5 million

 

X

Second Weekend Range: $2 — 5 million

Edited March 16, 2022 by Issac Newton

[Dragoncaine]

7 minutes ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-the-batman-eyes-third-1-frame-as-jujutsu-kaisen-0-the-movie-the-outfit-umma-and-x-debut/

 

 

Imagine if Batman ends at the upper end of this tracking. $40m as the supposed floor is already terrific. Let's see how the week's holds go.

[misterpepp]

Alright, I might be missing something, but as far as I can tell, Jujutsu Kaisen 0 will be the widest opening for an anime title since Pokémon 3 back in 2001 (booked at over 2.6k screens), and the first to open at 2.5k+ locations since then too, if BOP's location count estimate is correct. First to go over 2k on OW since Yu-Gi-Oh back in 2004 as well, yea? Again, I might've glanced over a title that came between. Demon Slayer eventually went over 2k, but not until week 3.

Edited March 16, 2022 by datpepper

[David W]

50 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Alright, I might be missing something, but as far as I can tell, Jujutsu Kaisen 0 will be the widest opening for an anime title since Pokémon 3 back in 2000 (booked at over 2.6k screens), and the first to open at 2.5k+ locations since then too, if BOP's location count estimate is correct. First to go over 2k on OW since Yu-Gi-Oh back in 2004 as well, yea? Again, I might've glanced over a title that came between. Demon Slayer eventually went over 2k, but not until week 3.

Yeah it would be which is why I can't help but not really trust that count.

 

Like Crunchyroll reported over 1,500 screens but now it increased to close to half as much as they reported?

Edited March 16, 2022 by David W

[David W]

Like I'm not crazy for questioning such a big increase?

Even the likes of Demon Slayer which launch when there was NOTHING else than MK at the time launched with less screens.

[el sid]

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 counted today at 10am EST for Friday, March 18:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 333 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 581 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 30+ (2 showtimes, one not clickable)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 71 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 100 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 186 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 120 (8 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 5 theaters: 1.421+.
 

Comps: Belle (1.6M OW) had on Thursday = 1 day later 83 sold tickets in 7 theaters

and My Hero Academia (6.3M OW) had also on Thursday = 1 day later 565 sold tickets in 6 theaters (= vs 1.350 sold tickets for Jujutsu Kaisen in the same 6 theaters) = x2.39 = 15.05M with 1 day left for Jujutsu Kaisen.
My guess for MHA back then was one of the wrongest predictions I made here because I expected 12M OW or even more. But now I compare Jujutsu Kaisen to MHA and it's still looking really good. It also had the better jump and therefore it improved significantly in the comp since Monday.

 

Umma had today for Friday in 4 theaters 45 sold tickets.
Comps: The Night House (2.9M OW) had on Wednesday for Friday 72 sold tickets in 6 theaters and 61 sold tickets in the same 4 theaters, would be around 2M for Umma.

Malignant (5.4M OW) had also on Wednesday for Friday in 7 theaters 167 sold tickets.

And Antlers (4.3M OW) had on Thursday for Friday 136 sold tickets in 7 theaters.

X had today in 7 theaters 214 sold tickets for Thursday.

Comp: The Forever Purge (12.6M OW) had also on Wednesday for Thursday 168 sold tickets = 1.65M from previews for X at the moment. But I guess it won't have the same amount of walk-ups. Still, that's a good number.

Edited March 16, 2022 by el sid

[David W]

3 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I’ll take the way over on JJK

Do you mean JJK will reach the heights of it's projections or BOP is over projecting?

[Joyous Legion]

7 minutes ago, David W said:

Do you mean JJK will reach the heights of it's projections or BOP is over projecting?

They mean JJK will do way over BOP’s projection 

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, el sid said:

X had today in 7 theaters 214 sold tickets for Thursday.

Comp: The Forever Purge (12.6M OW) had also on Wednesday for Thursday 168 sold tickets = 1.65M from previews for X at the moment. But I guess it won't have the same amount of walk-ups. Still, that's a good number.

Nice, I’m hoping it’ll be closer to $5m for the weekend than $3m in the forecast. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

[Krissykins]

3 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

Lots going on there…

 

I can’t see Black Panther 2 dropping $400m in one territory from the first film?! That would be shocking and maybe the biggest drop off of all time (?) 

[BruiseCruise]

7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Lots going on there…

 

I can’t see Black Panther 2 dropping $400m in one territory from the first film?! That would be shocking and maybe the biggest drop off of all time (?) 

Avatar 2 would be a 530 mil drop

[XXR & Friends]

15 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

The-Numbers have the worst predictions. 

[grim22]

48 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

The Batman predicted for 339M. A number it will be about 35M away from after a 40M+ weekend this weekend. So they are saying it will fall 80% next weekend?

[Joyous Legion]

Forget it boys, it's Numberstown

[ZeeSoh]

58 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

Those predictions are hilariously bad.