The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Brainbug]

6 minutes ago, YourMother said:

https://www.deadline.com/2022/03/morbius-box-office-8m-Thursday-previews-1234990463

 

Damn! $8m previews for Morbius?!

 

 

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast: MEMORY and Updates on Key April Releases

Read more: https://t.co/7nMwabt7T3#MemoryMovie #Ambulance #TheNorthman #EverythingEverywhere #FantasticBeasts #FatherStu #BoxOffice pic.twitter.com/1kNYFZ0yIF

— Boxoffice Pro (@BoxOffice) April 1, 2022

 

Ambulance, Fantastic Beasts, Father Stu all dropped, Everything Everywhere increased big time, The Northman projected to be a low-grosser.

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

Just now, filmlover said:

 

Ambulance, Fantastic Beasts, Father Stu all dropped, Everything Everywhere increased big time, The Northman projected to be a low-grosser.

Yeah.... "low-grosser" is a nice way to put it. It's sad honestly. Looks so good. 

[Eric is Quiet]

8 hours ago, Dragoncaine said:

I'm so perplexed how this is even possible. The movie looks just horrendous. I'm seeing it with a small group of friends tomorrow to hate-watch, but I imagine we're the exception, not the norm.

When people see "Marvel", they turn into robots. You could release anything, slap "Marvel Studios" on it, and get millions, at least on OW.

[filmlover]

Honestly April looks like it's going to be a soft month overall if those numbers for everything hold up. The R rating for Father Stu is just gonna turn off a lot of the potential faith-based audience that might've been interested in it otherwise.

[Dragoncaine]

9 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Walk-ups seem strong for most movies this year. I think audiences have re-conditioned casual moviegoing habits to some extent. It also appeals to horror fans, a genre that isn’t consistent with presales and still do well. It’s also a “big” release.

 

Looking/being horrendous doesn’t necessarily matter for opening weekend as much as it does legs. 

I'm still grateful for any movie that gets butts in theater seats during these times, but man, what a movie to pick!

[JWR]

Any guesses for what preview numbers are looking like?

[XXR & Friends]

7 minutes ago, JWR said:

Any guesses for what preview numbers are looking like?

Guesses? $5-6M.

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 hours ago, Dragoncaine said:

I'm so perplexed how this is even possible. The movie looks just horrendous. I'm seeing it with a small group of friends tomorrow to hate-watch, but I imagine we're the exception, not the norm.

Probably because it had low presales, especially in @DAJK's area, makes it much easier to nab walk-ups. 

[BruiseCruise]

Its a good thing Sony are masters at keeping budgets down

[JWR]

It'll need to have a good enough opening to make up for the competition that will cut off its legs.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/25/2022 at 11:42 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Lost City	3,443	81,686		75,224	6,462	0	0
The Batman	3,276	55,479	-35.52%	51,766	3,713	2,871	0
Uncharted	2,898	32,073	-9.79%	32,005	68	0	0
JJK: 0	2,347	29,306	-29.59%	28,626	680	282	0
X	2,618	26,206	-23.82%	26,139	67	0	0
Dog	2,444	24,140	-22.96%	24,086	54	0	0
RRR	1181	20636		18975	1,661	155	118
Infinite Storm	1,481	19,579		19,551	28	0	0
Spider-Man: NWH	1,601	14,849	-31.23%	14,775	74	0	27
The Outfit	1,202	9,655	-40.11%	9,650	5	0	0
Sing 2 Sing-Along	1,840	9,649		9,638	11	0	0
Sing 2	873	4,727	-47.05%	4,674	53	0	16
Umma	736	7,735	-32.17%	7,735	0	0	0
Death on the Nile	996	6,977	-55.28%	6,955	22	0	0
Hotel Transylvania 4	512	3,626	-42.32%	3,620	6	0	0
Jackass Forever	508	2,551	-50.84%	2,546	5	0	0
Licorice Pizza	537	1,027	11.39%	1,027	0	0	0
Belfast	524	932	-15.12%	932	0	0	0
Scream	131	815	-58.10%	809	6	0	0
West Side Story	457	574	-27.06%	574	0	0	0
Nightmare Alley	474	536		536	0	0	0
Everything Everywhere	11	281		236	45	28	0

 

US showtime sample for 3/25/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Lost City - 81,868 (3,443)

 - Uncharted- 85,247 (3,358)

 - Free Guy - 80,479 (3,318)

RRR - 20,636 (1,181)

 - The Cursed - 20,717 (1,609)

 - Belle - 16,995 (1,313)

Infinite Storm - 19,579 (1,481)

 - Journal for Jordan - 19,572 (2,055)

 - The Cursed - 20,717 (1,609)

 

T-1 Week

Morbius - 72,706 (2,812)

 - No Time to Die - 63,789 (2,910)

 - Eternals - 71,800 (2,852)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - 63,866 (2,826)

The Contractor - 3,249 (252)

 - The Card Counter - 3,428 (330)

 - The French Dispatch - 3,716 (342)

 

T-2 Week Previews

Sonic 2 (EA) - 678 (673)

Sonic 2 - 7,979 (2,389)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

 - Ghostbusters - 9,550 (2,316)

 - Lost City - 5,838 (2,142)

Ambulance - 1,183 (671)

Case for Heaven - 1,013 (954)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Father Stu - 3,017 (1,359)

 - Ghostbusters - 3,137 (799)

 - Uncharted - 3,304 (813)

Secrets of Dumbledore - 3,764 (573)

 - Scream - 3,888 (1,802)

 - Uncharted - 3,304 (813)

 

T-4 Week Previews

The Bad Guys - 1,288 (486)

 - Lost City - 1,250 (482)

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Morbius	3,418	134,155		118,885	15,270	5,119	0
The Lost City	3,473	61,754	-24.40%	61,342	412	0	0
The Batman	3,183	44,070	-20.56%	43,956	114	0	0
Uncharted	2,667	29,909	-6.75%	29,866	43	0	0
Jujutsu Kaisen 0	1,983	20,243	-30.93%	20,204	39	6	0
Dog	1,838	15,576	-35.48%	15,561	15	0	0
Infinite Storm	1463	8719	-55.47%	8703	16	0	0
X	1,537	10,625	-59.46%	10,620	5	0	0
Spider-Man: NWH	1,356	10,539	-29.03%	10,505	34	0	23
RRR	822	7,512	-63.60%	7,494	18	0	0
The Contractor	478	6,356		6,342	14	0	0
CODA	612	5,670		5,670	0	0	0
Sing 2 Sing-Along	1,147	5,322	-44.84%	5,312	10	0	0
Sing 2	852	4,551	-3.72%	4,508	43	0	6
Death on the Nile	428	2,795	-59.94%	2,795	0	0	0
Hotel Transylvania 4	371	2,673	-26.28%	2,673	0	0	0
Attack	219	2,089		2,089	0	0	0
The Outfit	317	1,916	-80.16%	1,916	0	0	0
Umma	308	1,768	-77.14%	1,768	0	0	0
The Kashmir Files	148	1,045		1,045	0	0	0
Princess Mononoke	838	850		849	1	0	0
Jackass Forever	137	775	-69.62%	775	0	0	0
WWE Wrestlemania	730	730		730	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 4/1/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Morbius - 134,155 (3,418)

 - Shang-Chi - 133,770 (3,523)

 - Eternals - 118,603 (3,436)

 - Venom 2 - 137,474 (3,273)

The Contractor - 6,356 (478)

 - The Card Counter - 6,895 (542)

 - The Rescue - 6,423 (541)

 

T-1 Week Previews

Sonic 2 (EA) - 745 (739 TC)

 - Death on the Nile (EA) - 824 (816)

Sonic 2 - 51,242 (2,764)

 - Uncharted - 50,667 (2,672)

 - Dune - 45,388 (2,771)

 - Lost City - 38,802 (2,634)

Ambulance - 27,883 (2,198) (4,447 PLF shows)

 - West Side Story - 27,605 (1,950)

 - Jackass Forever - 32,919 (2,445)

 - Dog - 26,312 (2,172)

 

T-2 Week Previews

Father Stu - 3,134 (1,400)

 - Dog - 3,104 (1,383)

 - Jackass Forever - 2,779 (1,845)

Secrets of Dumbledore - 11,617 (2,405) (2,116 PLF shows)

 - No Time to Die - 10,513 (2,492)

 - Morbius - 10,885 (2,409) (2,286 PLF shows)

 

T-3 Week Previews

The Bad Guys - 2,295 (876)

 - Marry Me - 2,115 (1,068)

The Northman - 487 (303)

 - Ambulance - 593 (339)

[Noiret Jak]

It's good for FB3

BoxOfficePro in its predictions announces -9% for the weekend of FB3 initially planned at 40/55M$ and now it is at 45/55M$ so it's .. better?

[john2000]

 

[JWR]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

 

 

Not bad. We'll see how that holds as word of mouth spreads over the next two days.

[Dragoncaine]

I'm so curious to see the FSS drops for Morbius. Will WoM really be that toxic, or will it be met with more of a collective shrug?

[vafrow]

Good number for Morbius. 

 

It's an interesting commentary on the state of the industry when a film based on a character that few people care about, with a lead actor that seems to be close to being generally disliked by most audiences, and the film has negative critic and audience reviews, and it'll likely land comfortably at a $35-40M debut, basically due to its very loose connection to existing superhero universes. 

 

In contrast, last week, everyone celebrated the success of a movie with an all star cast of likable and sellable actors, and generally positive word of mouth, but, still will land $5-10M short of Morbius. 

 

This isn't a criticism either. It's just how it is unfortunately, and these past two weekends really put it into focus. 

[JWR]

Just now, Dragoncaine said:

I'm so curious to see the FSS drops for Morbius. Will WoM really be that toxic, or will it be met with more of a collective shrug?

 

Bit of both, but more of the latter. It's lackluster, but hardly anything that would keep general audiences away from it.

[BruiseCruise]

Where does this "most audiences hate Leto" stuff come from? Do you really think the average moviegoer is aware of his cult or allegations?  He's just not a star and never was a draw like 99% of actors aren't

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Where does this "most audiences hate Leto" stuff come from? Do you really think the average moviegoer is aware of his cult or allegations?  He's just not a star and never was a draw like 99% of actors aren't

I feel like no one cared about him (despite being an Oscar winner 2+ years before) until Suicide Squad and the stories of his over-the-top on-set antics came along (and to add insult to injury, the movie was generally disliked despite making plenty of money). He's been nothing but an easy target for derision ever since. It's gotten to the point where it's impossible to believe that 20-something years ago that he was once considered one of the most promising rising young actors of his generation.