The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BruiseCruise]

Just now, THUNDER BIRD said:

People really care about fast cars and ridiculous stunts.

 

Furious 7 was peak of powers of the franchise, it's been downhill ever since.

furious 7 made that much only cause it was paul walker's tragedy, now the franchise has come back to the levels it was at before that

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

1.) Jurassic World was walkup heavy i guess, i don't think anyone predicted 200+ OW.

 

2.) Fallen Kingdom was i think affected by Reviews somewhat especially when people had choice in form of Incredibles 2.

 

3.) Pre Sales still aren't on level of MCU, SW, maybe even DC type franchises, but opening turns out to be good enough.

Actually its presales were perfectly fine compared to BP and not even that bad vs Deadpool 2. It did see a better walkup trend than CBMs but not by some super drastic margin, especially considering that films with lower presale numbers tend to have better walk-ups naturally.

Edited April 28, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[THUNDER BIRD]

8 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Actually its presales were perfectly fine compared to BP and not even that bad vs Deadpool 2. It did see a better walkup trend than CBMs but not by some super drastic margin, especially considering that films with lower presale numbers tend to have better walk-ups naturally.

By the time it released in USA, it already had Rotten score and Incredibles 2.

 

I think even though critical reviews may or may not factor in long run when audience WOM comes out, but pre release they are important for extra neutral audience.

 

Other thing which i as a fan can think was it didn't look much of an interesting movie once 2nd & 3rd trailers released. Smaller scale, darker and just less fun than Jurassic World.

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by THUNDER BIRD

[Eric is Quiet]

Looking back on it, though fuzzy memories are fuzzy memories, a lot of the dogpiling of Fallen Kingdom's numbers was moreso because there were some people (not naming names, though thankfully they aren't on the boards anymore) who just really had a bone to pick with this movie than any actual concern on the film. Plus back then there weren't nearly as many trackers or people with the hard data we have now. Doesn't really matter, since everybody knows this will make a bajillion dollars.

[charlie Jatinder]

I think the most important comp will be Sacrto's day 1 FK adjusted. @Porthos

[Inceptionzq]

In addition to regular previews and the Live Q&A, there is also a double feature for JW Dominion

[Mulder]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Is there really any sort of deep fandom for the Jurassic series? The main appeal of these movies for the average individual is seeing people doing stupid things and ending up dinosaur meals because of it. It shouldn't be much of a surprise that there's never been a rush to buy tickets early.

There's a deep fandom for Jurassic, if anything a really old one. Like Brainbug was saying it's not big, not at all, but if I had to estimate there's like 2k deeply devoted fans. Twitter's the main hub but before that it was sites like Jurassic Park Legacy.

[Tinalera]

Doctor Strange and Multiverse of Madness

Toronto Ontario

Thurs May 5 (taken April 28)

10 theatres

112 shows (+29)

 

Total Sold 8251 (+1299)

Total Remaining 20570

Total Seats 28821 (+7565)

No Sellouts

Percentage 28.63 (formerly 32.7)

 

Oh, its only AFTER I post this I note that Jurassic tickets are on sale now for cineplex....sigh

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by Tinalera

[Tinalera]

Jurassic Dominion

Toronto Ontario

Thurs June 9 (taken April 28)

10 theatres

45 shows

 

Total sold 72

Total remaining 11953

Total Seats 12025

Percentage .6

No Sellouts 

 

Observation in general that the studios for big tentpole films really seem to have nailed that fear of missing out idea and even Cineplex is getting in on it-people are buying tickets for a for a film not out for 6 weeks (now I know that has been par for course with the US ticket sales for awhile, but Cineplex with its "well lets see how many seats we can assign any given week" mentality, is getting people to buy 6 weeks in advance.) With the combination of big tentpoles and with movies now going to streaming less than 2 months from opening day in theatres, there is that almost live theatre vibe of "better get tickets for the big show before its gone!" type of thought. Rather interesting to watch really

 

[THUNDER BIRD]

7 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Jurassic Dominion

Toronto Ontario

Thurs June 9 (taken April 28)

10 theatres

45 shows

 

Total sold 72

Total remaining 11953

Total Seats 12025

Percentage .6

No Sellouts 

 

Observation in general that the studios for big tentpole films really seem to have nailed that fear of missing out idea and even Cineplex is getting in on it-people are buying tickets for a for a film not out for 6 weeks (now I know that has been par for course with the US ticket sales for awhile, but Cineplex with its "well lets see how many seats we can assign any given week" mentality, is getting people to buy 6 weeks in advance.) With the combination of big tentpoles and with movies now going to streaming less than 2 months from opening day in theatres, there is that almost live theatre vibe of "better get tickets for the big show before its gone!" type of thought. Rather interesting to watch really

 

Still think they could've waited few days to open the sales and after promoting it. Now i don't know how it'll perform initial few days when many people don't have idea.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/27/2022 at 8:55 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-21	Downton Abbey (EA)	Jacksonville	6	6	783	22	2	2.81%
		Phoenix	6	6	606	12	0	1.98%
		Raleigh	7	7	708	48	5	6.78%
	Downton (EA) Total		19	19	2,097	82	7	3.91%
T-22	Downton Abbey	Jacksonville	6	11	1,550	37	6	2.39%
		Phoenix	5	7	1,158	39	5	3.37%
		Raleigh	7	8	935	53	6	5.67%
	Downton Total		18	26	3,643	129	17	3.54%
T-8	Doctor Strange 2	Jacksonville	7	157	24,345	3,566	145	14.65%
		Phoenix	6	136	19,826	3,751	156	18.92%
		Raleigh	8	130	15,318	4,203	206	27.44%
	Doctor Strange 2 Total		21	423	59,489	11,520	507	19.36%

 

Memory - 30 sold

 - Blacklight - .857x (193k)

 - Copshop - missed

 - Ambulance - .23x (160k)

 

DS2 final sales (T-1 hour) comps

 - Eternals - 2.14x (20.37m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.81x (24.73m)

 - Black Widow - 1.565x (20.66m)

 - No Way Home - .332x (16.61m)

 

My last Batman run was preview morning - Thu + EA comp is at 22.02m

 

DS2 T-8 comps

 - Spider-Man - .573x (28.67m)

 - Black Widow - 4.40x (58.08m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - Batman + EA - missed

 

Downton EA T-21 comps

 - Sonic EA - 1.17x (1.488m)

 

Downton T-22 comps

 - Black Widow - .1x (1.32m)

 - Eternals - .146x (1.38m)

 - Sonic 2 - .822x (4.09m)

 

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-20	Downton Abbey (EA)	Jacksonville	6	6	783	24	2	3.07%
		Phoenix	6	6	606	12	0	1.98%
		Raleigh	7	7	708	54	6	7.63%
	DA (EA) Total		19	19	2,097	90	8	4.29%
T-21	Downton Abbey	Jacksonville	6	11	1,550	41	4	2.65%
		Phoenix	6	8	1,212	40	1	3.30%
		Raleigh	7	8	935	54	1	5.78%
	DA Total		19	27	3,697	135	6	3.65%
T-42	JW3 Dominion	Jacksonville	6	105	15,656	135	135	0.86%
		Phoenix	6	93	15,960	85	85	0.53%
		Raleigh	7	61	7,039	73	73	1.04%
	JW3 Dominion Total		19	259	38,655	293	293	0.76%
T-7	Doctor Strange 2	Jacksonville	7	157	24,345	3,679	113	15.11%
		Phoenix	6	136	19,826	3,958	207	19.96%
		Raleigh	8	130	15,318	4,343	140	28.35%
	Doctor Strange 2 Total		21	423	59,489	11,980	460	20.14%

 

Memory - 36 sold

 - Blacklight - .667x (150k)

 - Copshop - 1.125x (141k)

 - Ambulance - .213x (150k)

 

DS2 final sales (T-1 hour) comps

 - Eternals - 2.23x (21.186m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.92x (25.72m)

 - Black Widow - 1.627x (21.48m)

 - No Way Home - .345x (17.27m)

 

My last Batman run was preview morning - Thu + EA comp is at 22.9m

 

DS2 T-7 comps

 - Spider-Man - .579x (28.96m)

 - Black Widow - 4.23x (55.82m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 3.024x (53.22m)

 - Batman + EA - 2.064x (44.58m)

 

Downton EA T-20 comps

 - Sonic EA - 1.098x (1.394m)

 

Downton T-21 comps

 - Black Widow - .1x (1.32m)

 - Eternals - .137x (1.302m)

 - Sonic 2 - .696x (3.46m)

 

JW3 beginning sales comps

 - Doctor Strange 2 - .163x

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

 

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, Mulder said:

-SNIP-

 

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Glad you're continuing the good work on here.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Won't update until later tonight for some more time to pass but surely early interest in JW here

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think the most important comp will be Sacrto's day 1 FK adjusted. @Porthos

 

Late to the party on this whole discussion (Pacific Time Zone + Sleep in + Just got done setting up sheets), but I want to point out that since pre-sales for JWD will be over twice as long as FK's, even Day 1 adj will take a bit of a hit.  49 days of pre-sales versus 23 just isn't an apples-to-apples comparison even when looking at the D1 fan rush.

 

And that's presuming I had any faith whatsoever with 2018 comps (I think that FB2 comp just got lucky).

 

Anyway, I plan on using F9 and LTBC as my main comps along with FK and KotM as "under protest"/"extremely unofficial" comps.  Wish I could use GvK, as I really do think the "monster movie" genre is the closest to the JW franchise, but even I have my limits and GvK is firmly on the other side of that limit line.

 

Wish I had anything better, but I really don't think I do.  Might take a look at GB:A and even Sonic 2 and see how they look, but once again semi-flying blind here until the picture clarifies.

[el sid]

Only a very short report from me today.

JW3 had, counted only in the AMC Fresh Meadows ca. 1 hour ago, 49 sold tickets with 4 showtimes for Thursday, June 9.
And for Friday, June 10, it had 122 sold tickets with 9 showtimes.
I can't classify these numbers and this theater is an action theater but I guess especially the Friday number isn't bad 🤔.

Memory had today for Friday 65 sold tickets in 6 theaters.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): The Protege had on Thursday 70 sold tickets in the same 6 theaters,

Copshop had 37 sold tickets in 7 theaters

and Blacklight had 26 sold tickets in 6 theaters.

Blacklight made on the Super Bowl weekend 3.5M and the presales for Memory are better so normally I would just stick with my 5M prediction for Memory. But I see that it looks worse for it in other reports here, so maybe 4M?

 

Actually I planned to count Doctor Strange tomorrow but honestly I'm more interested how JW3 did on its first day. So probably I will count that movie instead, in 7 theaters of course.
 

[Derpity]

2 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

 

 

(Side note to this thread, but this movie is extremely original and very good, and everyone should try and see it in theaters if they get a chance. Props to A24 and exhibitors.)

[katnisscinnaplex]

3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Memory - 36 sold

 - Blacklight - .667x (150k)

 - Copshop - 1.125x (141k)

 - Ambulance - .213x (150k)

Memory - 57 sold

 

I didn't take 1 hr comps for any of the above comps, but here are some averages for movies with a 1 hr update: 

All action: 108.7k

All R: 115.1k

All 5pm previews: 111.1k

All movies: 117.7k

Max: 188.6k (Forever Purge)

Min:  62k (Roadrunner)

 

I don't know if we'll get a number, but I'll guess 120k for previews.

[Eric is Quiet]

3 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

 

Sadly doesn’t seem like a nationwide thing. My local Regal, which is playing Everything Everywhere, only has it in standard shows. Fantastic Beasts is still playing in IMAX this weekend over there. And like I know Warner’s IMAX deal is super favorable towards their movie, but this is just pathetic