The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ZackM]

 

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	961	662	6	35	24
Seats Added	95,395	64,909	1,591	2,235	4,102
Seats Sold	38,455	27,969	19,401	11,275	12,346
5/3/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	430	9,112	462,815	1,384,825	33.42%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	10	119	514	1,238	2,054
ATP
$16.23

 

Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Comps
	Spider-Man: No Way Home		The Batman		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-2	$32.6	$36.5	$34.9	$31.6	$33.3	$34.9
T-3	$32.1	$35.9	$35.3	$31.8	$33.0	$34.6
T-4	$31.1	$34.9	$35.8	$32.0	$32.4	$34.0
T-5	$30.4	$34.2	$35.7	$31.8	$31.9	$33.5
T-6	$30.2	$34.0	$35.9	$31.9	$31.7	$33.3
T-7	$29.9	$33.5	$35.9	$31.9	$31.5	$33.0
T-8	$29.5	$33.0	$35.5	$31.5	$31.1	$32.6

 

[Krissykins]

7 hours ago, BruiseCruise said:

Paramount about to get hit #4 by May

 

6 hours ago, datpepper said:

 

Won't this be 5? Scream, Jackass, Lost City, Sonic, and Top Gun?

Yes. Top Gun will be their 5th hit and 5th consecutive number 1 opening of 2022. 

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

 

Yes. Top Gun will be their 5th hit and 5th consecutive number 1 opening of 2022. 

The Contracter tho.

[Porthos]

On 5/3/2022 at 12:20 AM, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-38 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	167	22386	23503	1117	4.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

32

 

Regal:     164/5924  [2.77% sold]
Matinee:    52/1537  [3.38% | 4.66% of all tickets sold]

 

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-37 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	168	22518	23662	1144	4.83%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	159
Total Seats Sold Today	27

 

Regal:     168/5924  [2.84% sold]
Matinee:    53/1537  [3.45% | 4.63% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 5/3/2022 at 12:21 AM, Porthos said:

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	368	28239	43629	15390	35.27%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	15
Total Net Seats Added Today	949
Total Seats Sold Today	1037

 

T-3 Comps - SOME COMPS BETTER THAN OTHERS EDITION

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH:	71.76		925	21447		1/340	18316/39763	53.94%		28183	54.61%		35.88m
Batsy:	227.36		748	6769		0/324	31752/38521	17.57%		11757	130.90%		49.11m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness tickets have been on sale for twelve more days than No Way Home's tickets had been on sale at this point in pre-sales, and eight more days than The Batman's main showings had been on sale.

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	167.36%	23.13
SC:	5847	263.21%	23.16
LTBC:	7712	199.56%	23.15
ET:	6409	240.13%	22.81
NWH:	28183	54.61%	27.30
Batsy:	11757	130.90%	28.27

 

Regal:     3506/11177  [31.37% sold]
Matinee:    1053/4552  [23.13% | 6.84% of all tickets sold]

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	383	28323	44895	16572	36.91%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	15
Total Net Seats Added Today	1266
Total Seats Sold Today	1182

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH:	71.72		1659	23106		1/368	18946/42052	54.95%		28183	58.80%		35.86m
Batsy:	209.30		1149	7918		0/326	30853/38771	20.42%		11757	140.95%		45.21m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Doctor Strange in the Multitude of Madness's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	180.21%	24.91
SC:	5847	283.43%	24.94
LTBC:	7712	214.89%	24.93
ET:	6409	258.57%	24.56
NWH:	28183	58.80%	29.40
Batsy:	11757	140.95%	30.45

 

Regal:      3812/11507  [33.13% sold]
Matinee:    1178/4793  [24.58% | 7.11% of all tickets sold]

Edited May 4, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	256	34603	36119	1516	4.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

1516

 

Day 1 Unadjusted Comps  SOME **REALLY** BETTER THAN OTHERS EDITION

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	385.75		393	393		0/82	12755/13148	2.99%		4407	32.54%		28.68m
NTTD	547.29		277	277		0/132	19954/20231	1.37%		3737	40.57%		33.93m
Batsy	52.62		2406	2881		0/248	29316/32197	8.95%		11757	12.89%		11.37m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: The Batman had two extra days of sales for early access showings that accounted for 475 tickets sold before the main batch of tickets were released to the public.

 

Day 1 - Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	131.68		1089	1089		0/99	16124/17213	6.33%		9196	16.49%		18.20m
TG:M (adj)	---		1434	1434		0/222	29586/31020	4.62%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  TG:M (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Tuesday Sales:       356/2477   [14.37% sold]
Thursday Sales:    1160/33642 [3.45% sold]
    
Regal:       193/10514  [1.84% sold]
Matinee:    148/4980  [2.97% | 9.76% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Maaaaaybe F9 and NTTD weren't so hot comps after all.

 

(BW and F9 have both been adjusted for the lack of Ontario + BW is being sampled from different theaters, but I'm waaaaaaaaaaay behind so I'll change up those charts add the relevant info later tonight/tomorrow morning) 

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

So TG2 will infact open $100M. 🤡

[Mulder]

Interesting to see Top Gun: Maverick doing better in other areas. Did a quick look earlier in my area and it wasn't really selling that much. 

[Maggie]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So TG2 will infact open $100M. 🤡

GAGA   HER POWER!!!

[Porthos]

43 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	256	34603	36119	1516	4.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

1516

 

Day 1 Unadjusted Comps  SOME **REALLY** BETTER THAN OTHERS EDITION

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	385.75		393	393		0/82	12755/13148	2.99%		4407	32.54%		28.68m
NTTD	547.29		277	277		0/132	19954/20231	1.37%		3737	40.57%		33.93m
Batsy	52.62		2406	2881		0/248	29316/32197	8.95%		11757	12.89%		11.37m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

PRE-SALE NOTE: The Batman had two extra days of sales for early access showings that accounted for 475 tickets sold before the main batch of tickets were released to the public.

 

Day 2 - Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	131.68		1089	1089		0/99	16124/17213	6.33%		9196	16.49%		18.20m
TG:M (adj)	---		1434	1434		0/222	29586/31020	4.62%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  TG:M (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Tuesday Sales:       356/2477   [14.37% sold]
Thursday Sales:    1160/33642 [3.45% sold]
    
Regal:       193/10514  [1.84% sold]
Matinee:    148/4980  [2.97% | 9.76% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Maaaaaybe F9 and NTTD weren't so hot comps after all.

 

(BW and F9 have both been adjusted for the lack of Ontario + BW is being sampled from different theaters, but I'm waaaaaaaaaaay behind so I'll change up those charts add the relevant info later tonight/tomorrow morning) 

 

 

Charts have now been played with a bit.  Very likely I'm just gonna nuke the F9 and NTTD comps as being wildly out of snyc, but I was in a massive hurry tonight so I didn't want to spend the time to figure out what would be better. 

 

FWIW, Shang-Chi looked reasonable at a quick glance and I might rope it in tomorrow (ETA:  Oh. wait, no it didn't [24.08m] — never mind ).  But we really do look to be in uncharted waters for something of this genre of movie to have such a massive fan rush at the beginning of pre-sales. At least recently.  TG:M even smoked JW:D's first day as it ended up being more than twice as large as JW:D's first day.

 

TG:M Day 1 = 2.1203x JW:D's first day of sales locally (??? m)

 

Mind, the difference in length of pre-sales has to be considered.  Even so, wowzers.

 

Probably will spend a decent amount of time tomorrow figuring out just what would be decent comps after all. If there are actually any.

Edited May 4, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

TG:M Day 1 = 2.1203x JW:D's first day of sales locally (??? m)

TG:M over JW:D. Somebody make the club ASAP. 

[lorddemaxus]

I feel Top Gun 2 going $150 mil+ (*4-day)

Edited May 4, 2022 by lorddemaxus

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

TG:M over JW:D. Somebody make the club ASAP. 

lol now seriously, Jurassic is not really that pre sale heavy. It's more of a general audience movie, not fanboy, which TG:M seems to be

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

TG:M over JW:D. Somebody make the club ASAP. 

 

 

@Brainbug the Dinosaur and @Mulder seeing that post.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

 

@Brainbug the Dinosaur and @Mulder seeing that post.

I thought more like

Edited May 4, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[XXR vs XXR]

The eyeball test tells me MOM previews will come in between $36-38M and OW should do 5.4-5.8x for $195-215M.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

TG:M over JW:D. Somebody make the club ASAP. 

 

Forgot about this:

 

 

 

@SLAM! already way ahead of y'alls! 

[Brainbug]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

TG:M over JW:D. Somebody make the club ASAP. 

 

Your Hate has blinded you. Sarcasm is a path to the dark side aka loosing sight of realistic Box office predictions.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

TG:M OW over JW:D. Somebody make the club ASAP. 

Ok I was mostly joking but with this pre-sales start, not that joking either. Let's see how it goes. I still can't believe TG may open $100M but what do I know of cultural phenomenon in US.

[XXR vs XXR]

16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ok I was mostly joking but with this pre-sales start, not that joking either. Let's see how it goes. I still can't believe TG may open $100M but what do I know of cultural phenomenon in US.

I’m not saying that it will definitely happen but there’s a pretty good shot that it opens over $100M. In 2014, American Sniper went wide to over $93M as I recall. That crowd + the nostalgia audience should be able do some box office damage. It might even be a Memorial Day weekend opening record.