The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

Honestly I was kinda wondering about 150 OW from the Sacramento start, so it being lower in other regions isn't surprising. Now the overall picture seems more in line with the 110ish I had been thinking.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Does it change anything that I'm in a pretty liberal/left-leaning city? Maybe it'll play great in Middle America.

 

I mean, so am I, though the flavor of the liberal/left-lean here is slightly different than other cities.

 

ETA:

 

Actually, really curious about Denver, given the Air Force community in nearby Colorado Springs.  Any chance we could get a Quick and Dirty look at Denver, @Inceptionzq?

Edited May 4, 2022 by Porthos

[titanic2187]

45 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Might also cause it to crash and burn in some cities tho. 

 

One of the things about TG is that it is a "safe" way to get the rah-rah jingoistic juices flowing and is relatively inoculated from The Culture Wars.

Is it possible in a capital city like sacto, people there are more responsive to a more “USA! USA!”, hence the overperformance?

 

34 minutes ago, ImNotRacistAtAll said:

If we have DS2 opening over 200M and TG:M over 100M, that makes up for a FANTASTIC summer start. 

As of apr 30, domestic gross about 1.9bn at the box office while china made around 2.25bn total (assuming 1usd to 6.5 rmb). After solid march and april while largely muted cinema going in china lately. Domestic market manages to close the gap quickly. If DS2 gross 400m and TG2 opened to 100m, domestic can very well overtake china as the biggest market again like in pre-pandemic era by end of May. Whether or not they can retain the crown, it is up to 2nd half of the year and depend on just how many lakes are there in China. 

[Mr Terrific]

I’m a liberal who really liked the first Top Gun. I agree that TGM could have big appeal to “middle America” or the American Sniper crowd. 
I do wonder if people saw or remember the first movie. It was overtly pro-military, but oddly avoided overt politics. They rescue a ship against anonymous foes at the end. YMMV on whether that’s stupid or deft. 
It grossed well internationally. 
These are action movies, but any propaganda points are pickles that you can take off your sandwich. 

[el sid]

Top Gun: Maverick, counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, May 26 (22 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 105 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 127 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 8 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 8 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 270 (11 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 448 (22 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 974.

 

Comp: JWD had also with one day on sale 1.036 sold tickets in 7 theaters.
I think that's not a fantastic but very solid start for Top Gun 2. Especially therefor that the target audience is older.

[YM!]

2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Just think where theatrical was less than a year ago, and what it is going to look like this summer on July 8th.  

 

You will have a theater lineup on that day that includes the following.....

 

Doctor Strange: In the Multi-Verse of Madness - $200m+ opener

Top Gun: Maverick - $100m+ opener

Jurassic World: Dominion - $200m+ opener

Lightyear - $100m+ opener

The Black Phone - well reviewed summer horror

Elivs - should be a smash

Minions: Rise of Gru - $80m+ opener

Thor: Love and Thunder - possible $200m+ opener

 

You've got Marvel and Tom Cruise action, and Dinosaurs and horror and cinematic music biopic, legacy kids film and more.  

 

It's going to be absolutely packed this summer.  

Yeah with luck we could have 6 300m+ grosser this summer if everything goes right (Minions breaking out, as well as Lightyear and Top Gun but those two are a bit more assured). Even later summer has a lot of things that could be leggy hits. If WOM is great for Nope, I can easily see an old school run where it like opens to 50m and legs it to 200m. Both Bullet Train and Super-Pets could do in the 150m range too.

 

Iffy on Lightyear though. Can see a possibility where it turns out to be a surprise underperformer. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by YourMother

[el sid]

Doctor Strange 2, counted today for Sunday, May 8 (4 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 1.187 (18 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 745 (33 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 222+ (26 showtimes, still 2 Sell Outs reported)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 100 (15 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 126 (20 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.174 (35 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.464 (30 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 5.017+.
Jumped ok 18% since Monday. And a lot of new shows were added, namly 43.
Comps: NWH (260.1M OW) had on the same day, on Wednesday of its release week, 8.838 sold tickets. Means Doctor Strange reached now 57%.
NWH made 64.2M on Sunday = would be at the moment 36.6M on Sunday for Doctor Strange 2. But because Doctor Strange indeed came closer (on Monday it where 55.5%) I count with 60% till Sunday which would be 38.5M on Sunday.
The Batman (134.0M OW) had on Monday of its release week = also 4 days left 4.894 sold tickets for Friday (39.4M true Friday). Means Doctor Strange = x1.025 = 40.4M on Sunday.
So around 40M on Sunday judging from my comps and at the moment.

Today was the last day where I have a Spider-Man comp because I didn't count on the day before Christmas (it's one day earlier here, December 24). So tomorrow I have to use other films like SC, Batman etc.

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by el sid

[Inceptionzq]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Actually, really curious about Denver, given the Air Force community in nearby Colorado Springs.  Any chance we could get a Quick and Dirty look at Denver, @Inceptionzq?

Yeah I can do one today

[TalismanRing]

NYC Regal, Local,  (4:30pm)

 

DR STRANGE 2 (Wed/5.4.22/22 screens)

256/774 (3D)
625/920 (RPX)
1076/4017 (2D)

Total = 1957/ 5751 (+11% from Tues)

 

COMPS (Wed)

 

AEG:  $24.2m

SM:NWH:  $28m

BW: $76.4m

SC: $52m

Eternals: $51.6m

Joker: $48m

 

Really helpful numbers   

 

AEG and SMH were so heavily sold (especially AEG) there weren't a lot of seats available for late Thur sales.

[Inceptionzq]

Top Gun Maverick Previews

 

Denver: 1366 tickets sold

2.17x Dune Day 2 (11.07M)

3.96x NTTD Day 3 (24.67M)

1.80x JW Dominion Day 2

 

Megaplex: 1331/34489

1.43x Dune Day 2 (7.29M)

2.77x NTTD Day 3 (17.28M)

3.10x JW Dominion Day 2

 

Drafthouse: 1487/19800

 

 

Denver and Megaplex are off to strong starts. Don't really have good comps for Drafthouse atm, so hard to gauge there but it seems to be a relatively weaker start. But I don't think that's a surprise. I won't be fully tracking this until after Doctor Strange

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Is it possible in a capital city like sacto, people there are more responsive to a more “USA! USA!”, hence the overperformance?

 

I mean, maybe.  Just as likely to be a weird outlier, even if it’s a pretty big one as outliers go (though I just saw it’s doing really well in Denver, if not quite as strong as Sacto, which makes me give a bit more credence to our dormant/historical ties to Air Force Bases as something of an explanation).

 

It’s just, every once in a while, you really should just see a random outlier from  statistical samples.

 

What I’ll be curious to see is how it goes from here and if it smooths out in the fullness of time, or if Sacto is just gonna over-perform from start to finish.

[Mulder]

2 hours ago, datpepper said:

 

This is the same case near me. It's on-par with stuff like Bond, but it's way behind a lot of other major titles.

Are you Northeast too? Trying to see if maybe the Northeast just isn't connecting as hard since I'm looking at super south NY (Not NYC though) and super north NJ.

Edited May 4, 2022 by Mulder

[Tinalera]

As far as Top Gun, up here I think presales just started, so it's hard to get a look but there are people buying early. The first one was well received up here at the time, it was seen as lots of jet flying and great soundtrack and well Tom Cruise who could absolutely do no wrong as a box office hit. I think this will be a good success, lots of people wanting that feel good movie-sequel based on a property will definitely have the nostalgia feelings going, and people want to feel good right now. 

[misterpepp]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Are you Northeast too? Trying to see if maybe the Northeast just isn't connecting as hard since I'm looking at super south NY (Not NYC though) and super north NJ.

 

I'm not in the Northeast, no. Although a pal of mine that likes checking up on these sorts of things has scouted around there, and he doesn't think it's exploding nearby quite yet either, though sales are certainly far from poor.

 

I'm more in the Midwest, I especially like to check up on the Chicago-area and surrounding theaters. Pretty sold moviegoing population, although horror movies really over-index here.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, datpepper said:

 

I'm not in the Northeast, no. Although a pal of mine that likes checking up on these sorts of things has scouted around there, and he doesn't think it's exploding nearby quite yet either, though sales are certainly far from poor.

 

I'm more in the Midwest, I especially like to check up on the Chicago-area and surrounding theaters. Pretty sold moviegoing population, although horror movies really over-index here.

Interesting, was just curious to see if that might've been a correlation. Wonder what the connection might be then as for why both areas aren't really exploding/coming out for it (Yet).

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2082

4434

46.96%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1650

4478

36.85%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
11871	1059	43728	27.15%	15	326

 

AMCs sold	6322
Cinemarks sold	2108
Regals sold	2029
Harkins sold	1412

 

1.90x Batman T-2 (41.02M)

0.674x NWH T-2 (33.69M)

Doctor Strange 2 Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2208

4434

49.80%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1746

4478

38.99%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
12811	940	44192	28.99%	15	328

 

AMCs sold	6756
Cinemarks sold	2262
Regals sold	2246
Harkins sold	1547

 

1.83x Batman T-1 (39.49M)

0.665x NWH T-1 (33.25M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

T-2 Thursday(233 showings): 14085(+1273)/53813

1.87x Batman T-2 (40.35M)

0.582x NWH T-2 (29.10M)

 

T-3 Friday(335 showings): 10422(+1547)/81372

1.99x Batman T-3 (69.52M)

0.518x NWH T-3 (37.28M)

 

T-4 Saturday(329 showings): 6801(+1117)/79373

2.29x Batman T-4 (98.96M)

0.499x NWH T-4 (36.84M)

 

T-5 Sunday(318 showings): 1750(+208)/77168

2.42x Batman T-5 (82.63M)

0.517x NWH T-5 (33.13M)

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

T-1 Thursday(237 showings): 15492(+1407)/54411

1.84x Batman T-1 (39.71M)

0.602x NWH T-1 (30.08M)

 

T-2 Friday(335 showings): 12006(+1584)/81372

1.83x Batman T-2 (63.92M)

0.550x NWH T-2 (39.59M)

 

T-3 Saturday(329 showings): 7838(+1037)/79373

2.06x Batman T-3 (89.21M)

0.506x NWH T-3 (37.40M)

 

T-4 Sunday(318 showings): 2195(+445)/77168

2.42x Batman T-4 (82.71M)

0.543x NWH T-4 (34.84M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse

 

T-2 Thursday(365 showings): 25693(+2506)/45813 ATP: $15.10

1.61x Batman T-2 (34.69M)

0.871x NWH T-2 (43.55M)

 

T-3 Friday(528 showings): 25866(+3729)/66460 ATP: $14.80

1.39x Batman T-3 (48.51M)

 

T-4 Saturday(537 showings): 27411(+3871)/68116 ATP: $14.40

1.40x Batman T-4 (60.58M)

 

T-5 Sunday(473 showings): 15878(+2188)/60772 ATP: $14.16

1.55x Batman T-5 (52.77M)

0.921x NWH T-5 (59.08M)

 

No NWH comps for Friday and Saturday. The scrapper wasn't working for those days.

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse

 

T-1 Thursday(371 showings): 27954(+2261)/46408 ATP: $15.10

1.55x Batman T-1 (33.47M)

0.829x NWH T-1 (41.43M)

 

T-2 Friday(537 showings): 29119(+3253)/67611 ATP: $14.76

1.33x Batman T-2 (46.64M)

0.912x NWH T-2 (65.61M)

 

T-3 Saturday(537 showings): 30284(+2873)/69445 ATP: $14.35

1.32x Batman T-3 (57.02M)

0.921x NWH T-3 (68.10M)

 

T-4 Sunday(473 showings): 17786(+1908)/62500 ATP: $14.18

1.47x Batman T-4 (50.13M)

0.899x NWH T-4 (57.71M)

[Joyous Legion]

Wow, @Shawn and co are super bullish OS

Quote

Conservative industry expectations point to a $250 million international ($300 million global weekend bow), but the film is very likely to far exceed those marks

 

 

Spoiler

Or it's a typo from 150, I mean, who can really say 😛

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 8	Location Count Projection (as of Wednesday)	% Change from Last Wknd
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness	Disney & Marvel Studios	$210,000,000	$210,000,000	~4,400	NEW