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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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4 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-elvis-and-the-black-phone/

 

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
6/3/2022 Crimes of the Future         NEON
6/10/2022 Jurassic World Dominion $160,000,000 – $210,000,000 -8% $443,000,000 – $590,000,000 -8% Universal Pictures
6/17/2022 Lightyear $90,000,000 – $120,000,000   $300,000,000 – $415,000,000   Disney / Pixar
6/24/2022 The Black Phone $17,000,000 – $22,000,000   $45,000,000 – $70,000,000   Universal Pictures
6/24/2022 Elvis $35,000,000 – $55,000,000   $110,000,000 – $170,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures

Man that Elvis number seems crazy. If it hits after what we see this weekend with top gun I will just stop predicting old people movies until sales start 😆

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Final Thursday numbers for Maverick:

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 Final
           
  Walkups Last Day Presales 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago
Showings Added 0 37 82 462 401
Seats Added 0 2,971 5,079 55,423 48,956
Seats Sold 56,658 18,916 20,115 14,162 11,163
           
5/27/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 429 4,907 212,816 850,414 25.02%
           
ATP          
$15.94          

 

 

 

Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Eastern Time Zone   Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Central Time Zone
Showtimes Sales DS: MoM Comp Batman Comp   Showtimes Sales DS: MoM Comp Batman Comp
3:00-3:59 15,177 40.1% 68.0%   3:00-3:59 10,478 50.0% 88.2%
4:00-4:59 6,266 25.5% 71.0%   4:00-4:59 6,052 45.8% 157.6%
5:00-5:59 3,383 19.7% 45.5%   5:00-5:59 2,716 25.9% 60.4%
6:00-6:59 17,410 39.4% 120.9%   6:00-6:59 11,114 42.0% 121.2%
7:00-7:59 19,802 41.4% 51.4%   7:00-7:59 15,053 49.6% 62.3%
8:00-8:59 7,042 22.7% 29.7%   8:00-8:59 5,772 31.7% 51.7%
9:00-9:59 9,098 22.3% 72.5%   9:00-9:59 5,629 26.3% 84.8%
10:00-10:59 6,122 20.2% 68.7%   10:00-10:59 3,549 20.5% 76.6%
11:00-11:59 492 6.0% 4.8%   11:00-11:59 261 7.0% 4.4%
12:00+ 119 2.4% 10.4%   12:00+ 0 0.0% 0.0%
                 
Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Mountain Time Zone   Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes Sales DS: MoM Comp Batman Comp   Showtimes Sales DS: MoM Comp Batman Comp
3:00-3:59 4,163 72.8% 123.2%   3:00-3:59 7,778 38.8% 61.2%
4:00-4:59 1,512 44.3% 168.9%   4:00-4:59 4,567 38.4% 87.0%
5:00-5:59 968 36.7% 81.6%   5:00-5:59 2,223 21.5% 57.8%
6:00-6:59 3,910 54.7% 172.9%   6:00-6:59 8,402 36.9% 100.0%
7:00-7:59 4,437 64.0% 71.9%   7:00-7:59 9,626 41.1% 49.4%
8:00-8:59 1,691 42.8% 61.9%   8:00-8:59 4,383 26.7% 38.9%
9:00-9:59 1,693 31.3% 106.4%   9:00-9:59 5,748 27.8% 76.7%
10:00-10:59 1,038 24.2% 107.6%   10:00-10:59 4,229 23.5% 77.2%
11:00-11:59 99 14.1% 5.7%   11:00-11:59 659 9.0% 8.6%
12:00+ 0 0.0% -   12:00+ 155 2.3% 9.5%

 

 

And final comps for all previews:

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Comps
  Dr. Strange MoM The Batman
Net
  Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted
D0 $15.8 $17.1 $14.7 $14.8 $17.1
T-0 $14.8 $16.3 $13.5 $13.8 $15.9
T-1 $15.1 $16.7 $14.2 $14.4 $16.3
T-2 $14.0 $15.9 $13.6 $13.9 $15.5
T-3 $13.4 $15.2 $13.2 $13.4 $14.8
T-4 $12.9 $14.7 $12.9 $13.1 $14.1
T-5 $12.7 $14.4 $12.6 $12.8 $13.7
T-6 $12.1 $13.8 $12.1 $12.2 $13.1
T-7 $11.7 $13.4 $11.7 $11.8 $12.6
T-8 $11.4 $13.0 $11.3 $11.4 $12.2
T-9 $11.3 $12.8 $11.0 $11.1 $12.1
T-10 $11.0 $12.6 $10.8 $10.9 $11.9
T-11 $10.8 $12.3 $10.6 $10.6 $11.6
T-12 $10.5 $12.0 $10.3 $10.4 $11.3
T-13 $10.3 $11.7 $10.1 $10.2 $11.1

 

Edited by ZackM
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38 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Did Pirates had early access screenings? I think not, right? What a beast that movie was OW

 

Pirates 3 was actually viewed as a major disappointment opening weekend. It was a very large drop from Pirates 2's record setting opening the previous year. Pirates 3 4 day wasn't even close to Spidey 3's 3 day from just a few weeks prior. 

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7 hours ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Wait I thought it was Thursday only. I'm so confused.

 

Still hoping for a 13M-15M true Thursday.

The comp columns in my hourly timezone breakdowns are purely Thursday ticket sales.  The full comps that I mentioned in the post that was quoted were for all previews.

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On 5/20/2022 at 9:10 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Theaters Shows Change Standard PLF IMAX 3D
Doctor Strange 2 3,463 100,831 -36.13% 82,206 18,625 4,120 8,117
Downton Abbey 2 3,284 67,324   66,381 943 0 0
The Bad Guys 2,959 34,241 -10.85% 33,975 266 0 122
Firestarter 2,872 33,519 -31.37% 33,435 84 0 0
Men 2,100 31,745   31,688 57 0 0
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 2,475 26,543 -12.96% 26,468 75 0 0
Everything Everywhere 1,374 14,159 -14.34% 14,144 15 2 0
Fantastic Beasts 3 1,561 12,137 -37.44% 12,114 23 0 0
Family Camp 998 11,012 -17.83% 10,984 28 0 0
The Lost City 1,146 10,518 -24.37% 10,459 59 0 0
The Northman 1,010 7,132 -44.77% 7,130 2 0 0
2000 Mules 400 5,755   5,755 0 0 0
Massive Talent 715 5,685 -40.32% 5,685 0 0 0
Father Stu 410 3,127 -38.20% 3,119 8 0 0
Memory 270 2,141 -53.66% 2,141 0 0 0
Bhool Bhulaiyaa 2 197 1,877   1,877 0 0 0
Uncharted 343 1,818 -70.84% 1,818 0 0 0
21 Pilots 5/19 & 5/22 699 1,625   1,625 0 0 0
Star Trek 5/22 803 1,441   1,434 7 0 0
Sarkaru Vaari Paata 198 1,426 -65.86% 1,426 0 0 0

 

US showtime sample for 5/20/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Downton Abbey (5/18 EA) - 2,811 (2,755 TC)

 - American Underdog (EA) - 2,203 (1,003)

 - Dog (EA) - 1,111 (1,102)

 

Downton Abbey - 67,324 (3,284 TC)

 - Moonfall - 64,611 (3,241)

 - The Bad Guys - 67,781 (3,297)

 - Addams Family 2 - 68,219 (3,204)

 

Men - 31,745 (2,100 TC)

 - Studio 666 - 30,292 (2,145)

 - Green Knight - 30,531 (2,468)

 - Last Duel - 32,124 (2,731)

 

Twenty One Pilots Cinema Experience (5/19 & 5/22) - 1,625 (699 TC)

 

T-1 Week

Top Gun: Maverick (5/24 EA) - 1,008 (942 TC) (642 PLF)

  (These are likely all PLF, but the smaller chains don't provide screen type to my source)

Top Gun: Maverick (5/25 AMC EA) - 210 (208 TC)

Top Gun: Maverick - 130,398 (3,199 TC)

 - Batman - 125,394 (3,125)

 - Venom - 135,877 (3,146)

Bob's Burgers - 30,287 (2,109 TC)

 - Jackass Forever - 32,919 (2,445)

 - Marry Me - 27,987 (2,321)

 - JJK0 - 26,472 (2,001)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Jurassic World: Dominion - 19,486 (2,624 TC) (5,056 PLF)

 - Top Gun 2 - 20,170 (2,554) (2,697 PLF)

 - Batman - 21,077 (2,439) (2,426 PLF)

 

Other

Fortune Favors Lady Nikuko - Fan Event (6/2) - 644 (642 TC)

Movie Theaters Shows Change Standard PLF IMAX 3D
Top Gun: Maverick 3,834 182,709   166,404 16,305 5,430 0
The Bob's Burgers Movie 3,004 58,184   57,922 262 0 0
Doctor Strange 2 3,133 51,577 -48.85% 49,723 1,854 0 1,642
Downton Abbey 2 3,234 40,011 -40.57% 39,849 162 0 0
The Bad Guys 2,466 26,817 -21.68% 26,664 153 0 62
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 1,935 16,470 -37.95% 16,403 67 0 0
Men 1,987 15,108 -52.41% 15,096 12 0 0
Everything Everywhere 1,041 10,805 -23.69% 10,767 38 0 0
The Lost City 769 5,301 -49.60% 5,240 61 0 0
Fantastic Beasts 3 674 4,334 -64.29% 4,328 6 0 0
Family Camp 503 3,606 -67.25% 3,597 9 0 0
Firestarter 832 3,471 -89.64% 3,471 0 0 0
F3: Fun and Frustration 351 3,374   3,374 0 0 0
Montana Story 277 3,228   3,228 0 0 0
2000 Mules 304 2,755 -52.13% 2,755 0 0 0
The Northman 306 1,681 -76.43% 1,678 3 0 0
Massive Talent 291 1,596 -71.93% 1,596 0 0 0

 

US showtime sample for 5/27/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

 

Top Gun: Maverick (5/24 EA) - 1,031 (944 TC) (649 PLF)

  (These were likely all PLF, but the smaller chains don't provide screen type to my source)

Top Gun: Maverick (5/25 AMC EA) - 226 (214 TC)

Top Gun: Maverick - 182,709 (3,834 TC)

 - Batman - 171,959 (3,553)

 - No Way Home - 206,421 (3,340)

Bob's Burgers - 58,184 (3,004 TC)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 59,464 (3,042)

 - Snake Eyes - 64,832 (3,008)

 - Death on the Nile - 56,756 (2,935)

 

T-2 Week Previews

Jurassic World: Dominion - 20,186* (2,773 TC) (5,091 PLF)

 - Top Gun 2 - 21,595 (2,856) (2,787 PLF)

 - Batman - 23,704 (2,907) (2,480 PLF)

*This includes 742 showings of the JW:D/Jurassic Park double feature*

 

T-4 Week Preview

Black Phone - 2,277 (887 TC)

 - Lost City - 1,250 (482)

 - Downton Abbey - 3,057 (1,982)

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41 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Final Thursday numbers for Maverick:

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 Final
           
  Walkups Last Day Presales 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago
Showings Added 0 37 82 462 401
Seats Added 0 2,971 5,079 55,423 48,956
Seats Sold 56,658 18,916 20,115 14,162 11,163
           
5/27/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 429 4,907 212,816 850,414 25.02%
           
ATP          
$15.94          

 

 

 

Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Eastern Time Zone   Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Central Time Zone
Showtimes Sales DS: MoM Comp Batman Comp   Showtimes Sales DS: MoM Comp Batman Comp
3:00-3:59 15,177 40.1% 68.0%   3:00-3:59 10,478 50.0% 88.2%
4:00-4:59 6,266 25.5% 71.0%   4:00-4:59 6,052 45.8% 157.6%
5:00-5:59 3,383 19.7% 45.5%   5:00-5:59 2,716 25.9% 60.4%
6:00-6:59 17,410 39.4% 120.9%   6:00-6:59 11,114 42.0% 121.2%
7:00-7:59 19,802 41.4% 51.4%   7:00-7:59 15,053 49.6% 62.3%
8:00-8:59 7,042 22.7% 29.7%   8:00-8:59 5,772 31.7% 51.7%
9:00-9:59 9,098 22.3% 72.5%   9:00-9:59 5,629 26.3% 84.8%
10:00-10:59 6,122 20.2% 68.7%   10:00-10:59 3,549 20.5% 76.6%
11:00-11:59 492 6.0% 4.8%   11:00-11:59 261 7.0% 4.4%
12:00+ 119 2.4% 10.4%   12:00+ 0 0.0% 0.0%
                 
Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Mountain Time Zone   Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes Sales DS: MoM Comp Batman Comp   Showtimes Sales DS: MoM Comp Batman Comp
3:00-3:59 4,163 72.8% 123.2%   3:00-3:59 7,778 38.8% 61.2%
4:00-4:59 1,512 44.3% 168.9%   4:00-4:59 4,567 38.4% 87.0%
5:00-5:59 968 36.7% 81.6%   5:00-5:59 2,223 21.5% 57.8%
6:00-6:59 3,910 54.7% 172.9%   6:00-6:59 8,402 36.9% 100.0%
7:00-7:59 4,437 64.0% 71.9%   7:00-7:59 9,626 41.1% 49.4%
8:00-8:59 1,691 42.8% 61.9%   8:00-8:59 4,383 26.7% 38.9%
9:00-9:59 1,693 31.3% 106.4%   9:00-9:59 5,748 27.8% 76.7%
10:00-10:59 1,038 24.2% 107.6%   10:00-10:59 4,229 23.5% 77.2%
11:00-11:59 99 14.1% 5.7%   11:00-11:59 659 9.0% 8.6%
12:00+ 0 0.0% -   12:00+ 155 2.3% 9.5%

 

 

And final comps for all previews:

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Comps
  Dr. Strange MoM The Batman
Net
  Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted
D0 $15.8 $17.1 $14.7 $14.8 $17.1
T-0 $14.8 $16.3 $13.5 $13.8 $15.9
T-1 $15.1 $16.7 $14.2 $14.4 $16.3
T-2 $14.0 $15.9 $13.6 $13.9 $15.5
T-3 $13.4 $15.2 $13.2 $13.4 $14.8
T-4 $12.9 $14.7 $12.9 $13.1 $14.1
T-5 $12.7 $14.4 $12.6 $12.8 $13.7
T-6 $12.1 $13.8 $12.1 $12.2 $13.1
T-7 $11.7 $13.4 $11.7 $11.8 $12.6
T-8 $11.4 $13.0 $11.3 $11.4 $12.2
T-9 $11.3 $12.8 $11.0 $11.1 $12.1
T-10 $11.0 $12.6 $10.8 $10.9 $11.9
T-11 $10.8 $12.3 $10.6 $10.6 $11.6
T-12 $10.5 $12.0 $10.3 $10.4 $11.3
T-13 $10.3 $11.7 $10.1 $10.2 $11.1

 



So I am comparing it to the DS:MoM report.  How did Dr Strange have 9,386 showings but less theaters? IIT was nt that much shorter was it?

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/30019-the-box-office-buzz-and-tracking-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4330831

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8 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:



So I am comparing it to the DS:MoM report.  How did Dr Strange have 9,386 showings but less theaters? IIT was nt that much shorter was it?

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/30019-the-box-office-buzz-and-tracking-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4330831

 

Blockbusters are all going to be somewhere around 427 to 432 theaters for Alpha*.  Showings can vary wildly based on how each of those theaters decide to schedule each of their auditoriums.  And that can be related to demand or competition or whatever else.

 

*This only refers to tracked theaters since I can only track shows that have reserved seating.

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53 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Final Thursday numbers for Maverick:

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 Final
           
  Walkups Last Day Presales 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago
Showings Added 0 37 82 462 401
Seats Added 0 2,971 5,079 55,423 48,956
Seats Sold 56,658 18,916 20,115 14,162 11,163
           
5/27/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 429 4,907 212,816 850,414 25.02%
           
ATP          
$15.94          

 

 

 

Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Eastern Time Zone   Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Central Time Zone
Showtimes Sales DS: MoM Comp Batman Comp   Showtimes Sales DS: MoM Comp Batman Comp
3:00-3:59 15,177 40.1% 68.0%   3:00-3:59 10,478 50.0% 88.2%
4:00-4:59 6,266 25.5% 71.0%   4:00-4:59 6,052 45.8% 157.6%
5:00-5:59 3,383 19.7% 45.5%   5:00-5:59 2,716 25.9% 60.4%
6:00-6:59 17,410 39.4% 120.9%   6:00-6:59 11,114 42.0% 121.2%
7:00-7:59 19,802 41.4% 51.4%   7:00-7:59 15,053 49.6% 62.3%
8:00-8:59 7,042 22.7% 29.7%   8:00-8:59 5,772 31.7% 51.7%
9:00-9:59 9,098 22.3% 72.5%   9:00-9:59 5,629 26.3% 84.8%
10:00-10:59 6,122 20.2% 68.7%   10:00-10:59 3,549 20.5% 76.6%
11:00-11:59 492 6.0% 4.8%   11:00-11:59 261 7.0% 4.4%
12:00+ 119 2.4% 10.4%   12:00+ 0 0.0% 0.0%
                 
Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Mountain Time Zone   Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes Sales DS: MoM Comp Batman Comp   Showtimes Sales DS: MoM Comp Batman Comp
3:00-3:59 4,163 72.8% 123.2%   3:00-3:59 7,778 38.8% 61.2%
4:00-4:59 1,512 44.3% 168.9%   4:00-4:59 4,567 38.4% 87.0%
5:00-5:59 968 36.7% 81.6%   5:00-5:59 2,223 21.5% 57.8%
6:00-6:59 3,910 54.7% 172.9%   6:00-6:59 8,402 36.9% 100.0%
7:00-7:59 4,437 64.0% 71.9%   7:00-7:59 9,626 41.1% 49.4%
8:00-8:59 1,691 42.8% 61.9%   8:00-8:59 4,383 26.7% 38.9%
9:00-9:59 1,693 31.3% 106.4%   9:00-9:59 5,748 27.8% 76.7%
10:00-10:59 1,038 24.2% 107.6%   10:00-10:59 4,229 23.5% 77.2%
11:00-11:59 99 14.1% 5.7%   11:00-11:59 659 9.0% 8.6%
12:00+ 0 0.0% -   12:00+ 155 2.3% 9.5%

 

 

And final comps for all previews:

 

 

Top Gun: Maverick Comps
  Dr. Strange MoM The Batman
Net
  Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted
D0 $15.8 $17.1 $14.7 $14.8 $17.1
T-0 $14.8 $16.3 $13.5 $13.8 $15.9
T-1 $15.1 $16.7 $14.2 $14.4 $16.3
T-2 $14.0 $15.9 $13.6 $13.9 $15.5
T-3 $13.4 $15.2 $13.2 $13.4 $14.8
T-4 $12.9 $14.7 $12.9 $13.1 $14.1
T-5 $12.7 $14.4 $12.6 $12.8 $13.7
T-6 $12.1 $13.8 $12.1 $12.2 $13.1
T-7 $11.7 $13.4 $11.7 $11.8 $12.6
T-8 $11.4 $13.0 $11.3 $11.4 $12.2
T-9 $11.3 $12.8 $11.0 $11.1 $12.1
T-10 $11.0 $12.6 $10.8 $10.9 $11.9
T-11 $10.8 $12.3 $10.6 $10.6 $11.6
T-12 $10.5 $12.0 $10.3 $10.4 $11.3
T-13 $10.3 $11.7 $10.1 $10.2 $11.1

 

 

Walkups ended up being proportionately very strong.  It was just those final presales updates that caused some turbulence in the trend line. 

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15 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

I think that may skew things a bit high considering that the bigger movies (with the exception of SC) seem to be lower than that.

Movie Previews T-1 Hr Comp
Spider-Man 50000000 34681 11.64
Doctor Strange 2 36000000 23074 12.60
Top Gun 2   8074 0.00
Black Widow 13200000 7362 14.48
Eternals 9500000 5372 14.28
Shang-Chi 8800000 4099 17.33
F9: The Fast Saga 7100000 3836 14.94
Fantastic Beasts 3 6000000 3445 14.06
Morbius 5700000 2950 15.60
Dune 5100000 2750 14.97
No Time to Die 5200000 2731 15.37
Halloween Kills 4850000 2493 15.71
Ghostbusters 4150000 2384 14.05

 

Yes, for sure.  Taking just the top sales in my region averages out to 14.6m for Thursday, which is sounding like still too high? I'm just hesitant to rely too heavily on CBM as those tend to have a lower presales multiplier.   I know my prediction matched the all movies comp this time, but I've just been adding it to every 1-hr report to see how it tracks, whether it ends up being realistic or not.  Lately I haven't had any time to analyze data after spending hours and hours pulling it :(.  Hoping to get more into that once things slow down.

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5 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Blockbusters are all going to be somewhere around 427 to 432 theaters for Alpha*.  Showings can vary wildly based on how each of those theaters decide to schedule each of their auditoriums.  And that can be related to demand or competition or whatever else.

 

*This only refers to tracked theaters since I can only track shows that have reserved seating.

AH ok for some reason i was thinking the theatre column was screens played on  screen to for theater i Think lol.  

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17 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Drafthouse

 

T-1 Friday(328 showings): 15712(+2683)/44896 ATP: $14.50

0.482x Doctor Strange 2 T-1 (26.38M)

0.623x Batman T-1 (21.81M)

0.425x NWH T-1 (30.58M)

Top Gun Maverick Drafthouse Friday(329 showings):

 

19166(+3454)/45016 ATP: $14.34

0.524x Doctor Strange 2 T-0 (28.68M)

0.672x Batman T-0 (23.52M)

0.454x NWH T-0 (32.64M)

 

17 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Megaplex

 

T-1 Friday(306 showings): 12696(+2109)/71250

0.901x Doctor Strange 2 T-1 (49.29M)

1.47x Batman T-1 (51.61M)

0.471x NWH T-1 (33.88M)

2.36x NTTD T-1 (40.31M)

2.33x Dune T-1 (28.93M)

Top Gun Maverick Megaplex Friday(306 showings)

 

15378(+2682)/71250

0.894x Doctor Strange 2 T-0 (48.93M)

1.40x Batman T-0 (49.15M)

0.497x NWH T-0 (35.78M)

2.23x Dune T-0 (27.68M)

2.07x NTTD T-0 (35.44M)

 

Comps all over the place... who knows what'll happen today

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