The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

What is the Elvis tracking so far? (Sorry if already discussed)

$35-55M projection according to the latest Long Range.

[YM!]

7 hours ago, T-ReXXR said:

I don’t see it being quite that bad but I could definitely see sub 5x.

I think same multi as MoM.

[filmlover]

Just realized that potentially four movies (Elvis, The Black Phone, Lightyear, Jurassic World) could be doing $20M+ on the weekend of June 24. Five (with Top Gun) if we extend that to $10M+. Pretty sure that would be a first for the pandemic era?

Edited June 4, 2022 by filmlover

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

4 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I think same multi as MoM.

 

I'd tend to agree. If reception is the same, I'd say 4.75-5x because of a stronger, summer Thursday BUT I expect a better overall reception so that'll kick the IM up into the 5-5.5x range. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

22 minutes ago, filmlover said:

$35-55M projection according to the latest Long Range.

Not sure about 55. That's higher than Bohemian Rhapsody (51m) and Star is Born (42.9m). But that was 2018. At least, it looks good that it's going above Rocketman (25.7m)

 

Ironically, Rocketman and Ma opened same weekend in 2019. Blumhouse and music biopic. Both underwhelmed. This year, Blumhouse and another music biopic are opening again. And both will probably overperform

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Not sure about 55. That's higher than Bohemian Rhapsody (51m) and Star is Born (42.9m). But that was 2018. At least, it looks good that it's going above Rocketman (25.7m)

 

Ironically, Rocketman and Ma opened same weekend in 2019. Blumhouse and music biopic. Both underwhelmed. This year, Blumhouse and another music biopic are opening again. And both will probably overperform

I could see The Black Phone surprising with a $25M opening tbh. The market is starving for a broadly appealing horror movie at this point.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, ZackM said:

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	16	34	21	10
Seats Added	0	1,137	5,781	1,486	1,091
Seats Sold	6,123	4,138	4,359	3,182	2,674
6/3/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	4,357	88,453	768,484	11.51%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	2	14	53	133
ATP
$17.58

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Comps
	Top Gun: Maverick		The Batman		Dr. Strange MoM		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-6	$13.8	$12.9	$8.7	$8.2	$8.7	$9.3	$9.6
T-7	$13.8	$12.9	$8.4	$7.9	$8.4	$8.9	$9.3
T-8	$13.9	$13.0	$8.1	$7.7	$8.3	$8.8	$9.2
T-9	$13.8	$12.9	$7.9	$7.5	$8.1	$8.6	$9.0
T-10	$13.9	$13.0	$7.8	$7.3	$8.0	$8.5	$8.9
T-11	$13.9	$13.1	$7.6	$7.2	$7.8	$8.3	$8.8
T-12	$14.0	$13.2	$7.5	$7.1	$7.7	$8.2	$8.7
T-13	$14.2	$13.4	$7.5	$7.1	$7.6	$8.1	$8.6

 

At last pace above BW. Hopefully it continues to accelerate over the weekend. Next week it will obviously amp up but let us see how the weekend goes. 

[The Wild Eric]

On 6/2/2022 at 11:33 PM, Eric Mitchell said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	2237	23705	9.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 105

 

Comp

2.120x of F9 T-7 (15.05M)

2.155x of Venom 2 T-7 (25M)

2.118x of No Time to Die T-7 (13.35M)

1.067x of Top Gun 2 T-7 (20.55

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	2346	23705	9.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 109

 

Comp

2.056x of F9 T-6 (14.6M)

2.100x of Venom 2 T-6 (24.36M)

2.060x of No Time to Die T-6 (12.98M)

1.019x of Top Gun 2 T-6 (19.62M)

[Felandria]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Just realized that potentially four movies (Elvis, The Black Phone, Lightyear, Jurassic World) could be doing $20M+ on the weekend of June 24. Five (with Top Gun) if we extend that to $10M+. Pretty sure that would be a first for the pandemic era?

At this point, I wouldn’t discount Top Gun doing $20m in week 5

[Porthos]

On 6/3/2022 at 12:17 AM, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	223	23869	27754	3885	14.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

314

 

T-7 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	101.86		151	3814		0/177	21748/25562	14.92%		9196	42.25%		14.08m
SC	219.00		133	1774		0/111	15837/17611	10.07%		5847	66.44%		19.27m
NTTD	298.39		130	1302		0/144	21051/22353	5.82%		3737	103.96%		18.50m
Dune	370.71		66	1048		0/79	11280/12328	8.50%		2915	133.28%		18.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-7 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	259.48		91	1414		0/86	11869/13283	10.65%		4407	83.25%		19.29m
JWD (F9 adj)	---		296	3669		0/201	21349/25018	14.67%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: Both the F9 and the BW comp have been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during pre-sale runs of those films (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.60221x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-7 [22.06m adj]
JW3 = 3.17758x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-7 [18.02m adj]
JW3 = 0.88683x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-7 [18.36m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:       623/6145  [10.14% sold]
Matinee:    221/1535  [14.40% | 5.69% of all tickets sold]

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	223	23587	27757	4170	15.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

285

 

T-6 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	102.46		256	4070		0/178	21664/25734	15.82%		9196	45.35%		14.16m
SC	212.54		188	1962		0/111	15649/17611	11.14%		5847	71.32%		18.70m
NTTD	292.22		125	1427		0/145	21026/22453	6.36%		3737	111.59%		18.12m
Dune	365.47		93	1141		0/79	11187/12328	9.26%		2915	143.05%		18.64m
TG:M	65.75		399	6342		0/271	30967/37309	17.00%		11474	36.34%		12.66m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-6 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	262.83		79	1493		0/87	11891/13384	11.16%		4407	89.04%		19.54m
JWD (adj)	---		270	3924		0/197	20419/24343	16.12%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: Both the F9 and the BW comp have been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during pre-sale runs of those films (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.62512x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-6 [22.38m adj]
JW3 = 3.13352x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-6 [17.77m adj]
JW3 = 0.86837x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-6 [17.98m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:        712/6145  [11.59% sold]
Matinee:    241/1535  [15.70% | 5.78% of all tickets sold]

Edited June 4, 2022 by Porthos

[krla]

3 hours ago, Felandria said:

At this point, I wouldn’t discount Top Gun doing $20m in week 5

Especially if it manages to wrestle some premium screens back from Jurassic.

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, krla said:

Especially if it manages to wrestle some premium screens back from Jurassic.

The earliest it would be able to get IMAX/PLF screens back is August 12 due to all the movies set for those formats until then. Nothing is currently set for those formats in the entire second half of August and Labor Day weekend (unless one or both of the Idris Elba movies receive late announcements) so it might enjoy a late boost there as that time of year reverts back to being an apparent dead zone despite Shang-Chi's success last year.

[M37]

10 hours ago, T-ReXXR said:

 

I'd tend to agree. If reception is the same, I'd say 4.75-5x because of a stronger, summer Thursday BUT I expect a better overall reception so that'll kick the IM up into the 5-5.5x range. 

I understand effects of summer (including 4th of July week) and 3pm shows … but even an IM of MoM seems incredibly low to me.  Ant-Man & Wasp following Infinity Wars was 6.6x (6pm shows) and even Black Widow with pandemic and Disney+ factors managed a 6x, with 5pm shows

 

Thor, to me, is much more in the Guardians vein of fun, family friendly, less spoiler-y, and therefore not as heavy an opening night (or even OW) rush. Think that adds up to a ~6x or more, something like $25/$150

[motionpic05]

What's the lowest Dominion could open to next weekend and still be a hit?

[LegendaryBen]

3 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

What's the lowest Dominion could open to next weekend and still be a hit?

Low-$100s. @Brainbug the Dinosaur, any opinions?

[Brainbug]

38 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

Low-$100s. @Brainbug the Dinosaur, any opinions?

 

If we define "hit" as beeing a financial succes on paper, id say any opening above 100M ensures profitability combined with the OS grosses.

 

But any OW under Fallen Kingdoms numbers (148M) will be rightly seen as a disappointment. Anything under 140M or so would be disaster-territory imo.

Edited June 4, 2022 by Brainbug the Dinosaur

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 hour ago, motionpic05 said:

What's the lowest Dominion could open to next weekend and still be a hit?

 

"A hit" is relative. Without any expectations, fan discourse or observable prognostication you could say a hit is $100M OW. Would anyone HERE be happy with that and consider it a hit though? No. 

 

If JWD doesn't come in over JWFK with the nearly 20% ticket price inflation we've seen in the last 4 years I will consider that to be a flat out failure. 

Edited June 4, 2022 by T-ReXXR

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, T-ReXXR said:

 

"A hit" is relative. Without any expectations, fan discourse or observable prognostication you could say a hit is $100M OW. Would anyone HERE be happy with that and consider it a hit though? No. 

 

If JWD doesn't come in over JWFK with the nearly 20% ticket price inflation we've seen in the last 4 year I will consider that to be a flat out failure. 

 

Universal woudnt be too happy with an OW under Fallen Kingdom either i reckon.

 

Its like with the Rise of Skywalker: Sure, a 177M OW, a 515M DOM gross and nearly 1,1B WW is a hit. Very big hit, even. But was it a hit in the context of beeing the final Star Wars Episode of the so-called Skywalker Saga after both previous movies opened above 200M?

 

No.

[ZackM]

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	6	0	16	34	21
Seats Added	508	0	1,137	5,781	1,486
Seats Sold	6,658	6,123	4,138	4,359	3,182
6/4/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	4,363	95,111	768,992	12.37%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	2	15	58	154
ATP
$17.50

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Comps
	Top Gun: Maverick		The Batman		Dr. Strange MoM		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-5	$13.8	$12.9	$9.0	$8.5	$9.1	$9.6	$9.9
T-6	$13.8	$12.9	$8.7	$8.2	$8.7	$9.3	$9.6
T-7	$13.8	$12.9	$8.4	$7.9	$8.4	$8.9	$9.3
T-8	$13.9	$13.0	$8.1	$7.7	$8.3	$8.8	$9.2
T-9	$13.8	$12.9	$7.9	$7.5	$8.1	$8.6	$9.0
T-10	$13.9	$13.0	$7.8	$7.3	$8.0	$8.5	$8.9
T-11	$13.9	$13.1	$7.6	$7.2	$7.8	$8.3	$8.8
T-12	$14.0	$13.2	$7.5	$7.1	$7.7	$8.2	$8.7
T-13	$14.2	$13.4	$7.5	$7.1	$7.6	$8.1	$8.6

 

[keysersoze123]

Not bad at all for JWD. But ratio against TGM has been stagnant for past few days. It should go up final week as TGM did not accelerate as much as what I expected.