The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

10 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I think Smile could surprise and go over $20m. That trailer was pretty buzzy and played before Top Gun. 

I agree, wouldn’t be surprised if it flirted with $30M for OW. Nope is not a traditional horror, and even Black Phone (from what I’ve heard, haven’t yet seen) leans a bit more thriller, which tends to skew a bit older. Hasn’t been a traditional jump scare horror release since … Scream (?), and again an older audience. Trailer showed potential, as long as reviews aren’t terrible and kill the buzz

[Goldenhour36]

48 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bullet Train	T-7	Jax	7	51	8	76	9,463	0.80%
		Phx	6	27	11	129	6,010	2.15%
		Ral	8	31	9	66	4,009	1.65%
	Total		21	109	28	271	19,482	1.39%
Bullet Train (EA)	T-5	Jax	5	6	6	37	1,331	2.78%
		Phx	1	1	7	30	208	14.42%
		Ral	1	1	0	19	261	7.28%
	Total		7	8	13	86	1,800	4.78%
Dragon Ball	T-21	Jax	6	26	9	104	5,795	1.79%
		Phx	6	22	20	181	4,486	4.03%
		Ral	7	21	10	123	2,812	4.37%
	Total		19	69	39	408	13,093	3.12%
Easter Sunday	T-7	Jax	6	15	1	21	2,232	0.94%
		Phx	5	13	1	7	1,595	0.44%
		Ral	8	17	1	4	1,821	0.22%
	Total		19	45	3	32	5,648	0.57%
Super Pets	T-0	Jax	6	49	48	129	6,093	2.12%
		Phx	7	40	34	103	5,266	1.96%
		Ral	7	37	81	227	4,575	4.96%
	Total		20	126	163	459	15,934	2.88%
Vengeance	T-0	Jax	4	8	7	33	583	5.66%
		Phx	6	13	16	40	1,254	3.19%
		Ral	5	7	5	18	501	3.59%
	Total		15	28	28	91	2,338	3.89%

 

Super Pets T-0 comps

 - Minions 2 - .154x (1.66m)

 - Sonic 2 - .262x (1.3m)

 - Bad Guys - 2.115x (2.43m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .673x (1.82m)

 - Paws of Fury - 3.45x (1.74m)

 - Lightyear - .266x (1.31m)

 - Encanto - 1.02x (1.52m)

 

Improved against every comp (not too hard to do when starting with a fraction of the sales.  Still thinking around 1.6m previews but maybe a little higher

 

Day:	T-1 hr	T-0	T-1	T-2	T-3	T-4
Minions 2	0.000	0.154	0.172	0.182	0.214	0.215
Sonic 2		0.262	0.211	0.198	0.197	0.171
Bad Guys	0.000	2.115	1.947	1.767	1.813
Jungle Cruise	0.000	0.673	0.641	0.646	0.728	0.647
Paws of Fury	0.000	3.450	2.990	3.118	3.222	2.694
Lightyear	0.000	0.266	0.251	0.232	0.240
Encanto	0.000	1.020	0.955	0.876	0.911	0.815

 

 

Vengeance T-0 comps

 - Stillwater -  1.358x (380k)

 - Roadrunner - .659x (132k)

 - Ambulance - .538x (377k)

 

380k anyone?

 

Bullet Train (Thu) T-7 comps

 - Dune - .33x (1.68m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - .395x (2.05m)

 - F9 - .281x (1.99m)

 - Lost City - 1.355x (3.39m)

 - Morbius - .346x (1.97m)

 - Free Guy - 1.694x (3.73m)

Venegeance is tracking pretty well in my area but I live in the South where it most likely overindexed.

[filmlover]

Smile reminds me of Truth or Dare. A similar low-$40M total sounds about right.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Super Pets	Standard	46	282	282	6,676	4.22%	$10.46	$2,950.81
T-2	Super Pets (Fri)	PLF	12	4	4	3,321	0.12%	$11.10	$44.40
		Standard	100	415	415	14,193	2.92%	$10.77	$4,471.21
	Super Pets (Fri) Total		112	419	419	17,514	2.39%	$10.78	$4,515.61

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Super Pets	N	24	126	126	3,427	3.68%	$12.40	$1,561.78
		Y	22	156	156	3,249	4.80%	$8.90	$1,389.03
	Super Pets Total		46	282	282	6,676	4.22%	$10.46	$2,950.81
T-2	Super Pets (Fri)	N	38	240	240	6,008	3.99%	$12.15	$2,917.10
		Y	74	179	179	11,506	1.56%	$8.93	$1,598.51
	Super Pets (Fri) Total		112	419	419	17,514	2.39%	$10.78	$4,515.61

 

Super Pets Thu T-1 comps

 - Minions - .157x (1.689m)

 - Sonic 2 - .185x (922k)

 - Bad Guys - 3.133x (3.6m)

 - Lightyear - .343x (1.68m)

 - Paws of Fury - 9.097x (4.59m)

 

Gonna go ahead and throw out the two movies that had <100 sales so far.  The others look to be on good pace for around 1.5m preview

 

I don't have any kids comps for Friday for T-2, but other movies adjusted for a 1.5m preview are giving a true Friday around 4.4m.  Expecting a better growth rate than those movies (CBM/TG/JW) though.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Super Pets	Standard	46	238	520	6,676	7.79%	$10.39	$5,401.71
	Super Pets Total		46	238	520	6,676	7.79%	$10.39	$5,401.71
T-1	Super Pets (Fri)	PLF	12	12	16	3,321	0.48%	$12.69	$203.02
		Standard	100	127	542	14,193	3.82%	$10.54	$5,710.62
	Super Pets (Fri) Total		112	139	558	17,514	3.19%	$10.60	$5,913.64

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Super Pets	N	24	106	232	3,427	6.77%	$12.31	$2,854.98
		Y	22	132	288	3,249	8.86%	$8.84	$2,546.73
	Super Pets Total		46	238	520	6,676	7.79%	$10.39	$5,401.71
T-1	Super Pets (Fri)	N	38	47	287	6,008	4.78%	$12.16	$3,489.71
		Y	74	92	271	11,506	2.36%	$8.94	$2,423.93
	Super Pets (Fri) Total		112	139	558	17,514	3.19%	$10.60	$5,913.64

 

Super Pets Thu T-0 comps

 - Minions - .164x (1.77m)

 - Sonic 2 - .257x (1.28)

 - Bad Guys - 3.44x (3.96m)

 - Lightyear - .367x (1.8m)

 - Paws of Fury - 5.91x (2.98m)

 

I'll go with 1.9m previews based on Santikos. 

 

Super Pets Fri T-1 comps

 - Minions - .136x (5.12m)

 - Paws of Fury - 4.195x (8.13m)

 

Thursday final day (+84%) was closer to Minions (+76%) than Paws (+184%).  If Friday follows, we could see somewhere are +130% compared to Minions (+121%) and Paws (+182%).  That would put average Friday comps right at 6m.

[M37]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Smile reminds me of Truth or Dare. A similar low-$40M total sounds about right.

ToD came out during Quiet Place’s second weekend, in which it only dropped 34% and made $33M.  And AIW was in week 3. Taking the similarities at face value, the ceiling is still likely much higher due to far less direct competition. Also, excluding Paws of Floppy, it just seems to be Paramount’s year - wouldn’t bet against them 

Edited July 28, 2022 by M37

[El Squibbonator]

I expect Super-Pets to perform similar to Smallfoot or Storks, WB's last two "original" animated movies. For reference, Smallfoot opened to $23 million domestically and grossed $214 worldwide. It also had a budget of $80 million, slightly less than the supposed budget of DC Super-Pets. 

Super-Pets will probably benefit from having the months of August and September pretty much to itself as far as family movies go. Minions has been out for a month already, and Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile doesn't come out until October. That ought to give it enough wiggle room to leg it past the $200 million mark. Of course, Minions is still very popular, and if it weren't overperforming the way it is, Super-Pets might be able to open with over $40 million. 

[misterpepp]

I'm assuming nobody's interested in tracking this, but I hear tickets for Fall go on sale this Tuesday.

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, datpepper said:

I'm assuming nobody's interested in tracking this, but I hear tickets for Fall go on sale this Tuesday.

I doubt that makes much tbh. Just seems cheap and dumpy. 

[Borf the Borf]

9 hours ago, Borf the Borf said:

 

GOnna track my local AMC/ Tampa area preview for Super Pets.  No comps or predictions  just be measure through out day to get a sense of walk up numbers and trends specific to today 

was making it all pretty and tracking every 2 hours , but really trivial thus far.   SO i will just post results for 10 hours up until,  48

tickets sold ,  13 in Dolby and 35 in Regular.


Its not worth my time or posing,l  i will kepo an eye and if it picks up say somehtig. 

Edited July 28, 2022 by Borf the Borf

[Old Spice]

Salt Lake Report for Super Pets, 1:00 PM MST.

 

Really mixed back here in the SL Valley. Pets is dead in the water at my theater with just 2x what Hank did. It's performing much better in the suburban PLFs though. Using Nope as a comp (I know, it's a terrible comp, but it's the only one I have with the PLFs) I get $2.5 for preview nite. Using just the PLFs, it comes out to $3.78.

 

So honestly, I have no idea. All I know is, I'll be seeing it in a few hours and I can't wait. Krypto was my gateway drug into the world of DC comics over half a century ago, at the height of Mort Weisinger's Silver Age craziness, and I have had a soft spot in my heart for him ever since.

 

And now he has his own movie?! As his pop frequently said back in those days, "Great Krypton!"

 

 

Edited July 28, 2022 by A Star is Orm
typo

[el sid]

DC League of Super Pets, counted today at 10am EST for Thursday, July 28:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 120 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 81 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 22 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 13 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 35 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 62 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 132 (9 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 465.

Up 72% since Tuesday.
Comps (again not the best, both counted on Thursday for Thursday: Uncharted (44M OW) had on 1.294 sold tickets

and Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank (6.3M OW) had 138 sold tickets.

 

DC League of Super Pets, counted today at 10am EST for Friday, July 29:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 124 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 50 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 4 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 54 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 72 (10 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 318.

Up 83% since Tuesday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): JC (35M OW) had 817 sold tickets,

The Legend of Hank (6.3M) had 103 sold tickets,

Minions 2 (107.0M) had 2.893 sold tickets,

Sonic 2 (72.1M) had 1.851 sold tickets

and Paw Patrol (13.1M) had 316 sold tickets.
 

A sub-20M weekend could happen IMO. Maybe 25M with good walk-ups.
 

Beast's tickets were still not on sale .

PS: Let's see if I can switch to a better format. I'm myself not too happy with this damn ugly form it has now. But at the moment I'm glad if I can log in, so...the updates also didn't work as I notice now...
 

Edited July 28, 2022 by el sid

[Maggie]

wow

 

 

[Lestranger]

4000 plus, box office is back baby 

[Eric the IF]

18 hours ago, Eric the Superdog said:

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	85	286	12834	2.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 112

 

Comp

1.063x of Boss Baby 2 T-1 (1.39M)

0.914x of Jungle Cruise T-1 (2.47M)

2.724x of The Addams Family 2 T-1 (1.5M)

9.862x of Ron's Gone Wrong T-1 (2.56M)

0.925x of Encanto T-1 (1.39M)

1.881x of The Bad Guys T-1 (2.16M)

0.260x of Lightyear T-1 (1.35M)

0.188x of Minions 2 T-1 (2.02M)

4.145x of Paws of Fury T-1 (2.09M)

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	85	853	12834	6.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 567

 

Comp

1.116x of Boss Baby 2 (1.46M)

1.082x of Jungle Cruise (2.92M)

4.466x of The Addams Family 2 (2.46M)

9.804x of Ron's Gone Wrong (2.55M)

1.258x of Encanto (1.89M)

2.275x of The Bad Guys (2.61M)

0.449x of Lightyear (2.34M)

0.292x of Minions 2 (3.14M)

5.138x of Paws of Fury (2.59M)

 

Very, very solid finish here in Philly. Don't know if this is applying to elsewhere in the country, but this should indicate previews in the 2M range, which means it would at least meet tracking and hit #1.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Walk-ups were decent for the 2pm Superpets today..About 30

 

But walk-ups were always going to be good when only 6 tickets were sold beforehand

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Super Pets	T-0	Jax	6	49	48	129	6,093	2.12%
		Phx	7	40	34	103	5,266	1.96%
		Ral	7	37	81	227	4,575	4.96%
	Total		20	126	163	459	15,934	2.88%

 

Super Pets T-0 comps

 - Minions 2 - .154x (1.66m)

 - Sonic 2 - .262x (1.3m)

 - Bad Guys - 2.115x (2.43m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .673x (1.82m)

 - Paws of Fury - 3.45x (1.74m)

 - Lightyear - .266x (1.31m)

 - Encanto - 1.02x (1.52m)

 

Improved against every comp (not too hard to do when starting with a fraction of the sales.  Still thinking around 1.6m previews but maybe a little higher

 

Day:	T-1 hr	T-0	T-1	T-2	T-3	T-4
Minions 2	0.000	0.154	0.172	0.182	0.214	0.215
Sonic 2		0.262	0.211	0.198	0.197	0.171
Bad Guys	0.000	2.115	1.947	1.767	1.813
Jungle Cruise	0.000	0.673	0.641	0.646	0.728	0.647
Paws of Fury	0.000	3.450	2.990	3.118	3.222	2.694
Lightyear	0.000	0.266	0.251	0.232	0.240
Encanto	0.000	1.020	0.955	0.876	0.911	0.815

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Super Pets	1-Hr	Jax	6	49	104	233	6,093	3.82%
		Phx	7	40	39	142	5,266	2.70%
		Ral	7	37	181	408	4,575	8.92%
	Total		20	126	324	783	15,934	4.91%

 

Pretty good walkups today.  I do need to note that I started the early run (2pm-<6pm shows) about 40 minutes late due to being in a meeting.  To balance that, I pulled all 2pm shows first and worked my way up to the later shows.  Total could still be inflated a little.

 

Super Pets T-1 hr comps

 - Minions 2 - .175x (1.876m)

 - Bad Guys - 2.11x (2.43m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .711x (1.92m)

 - Paws of Fury - 3.39x (1.71m)

 - Lightyear - .315x (1.55m)

 - Encanto - 1.107x (1.66m)

All PG movies - 1.595m

All animated movies - 1.85m

All 2pm previews - 1.62m

All movies - 1.556m

 

Bumping my final prediction up to 1.75m for previews thanks to good walkups.  I would go higher but it doesn't seem to be getting very many PLFs until tomorrow.

 

Day:	T-1 hr	T-0	T-1	T-2	T-3	T-4
Minions 2	1.876	0.154	0.172	0.182	0.214	0.215
Sonic 2		0.262	0.211	0.198	0.197	0.171
Bad Guys	2.111	2.115	1.947	1.767	1.813
Jungle Cruise	0.711	0.673	0.641	0.646	0.728	0.647
Paws of Fury	3.390	3.450	2.990	3.118	3.222	2.694
Lightyear	0.315	0.266	0.251	0.232	0.240
Encanto	1.107	1.020	0.955	0.876	0.911	0.815

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Vengeance	T-0	Jax	4	8	7	33	583	5.66%
		Phx	6	13	16	40	1,254	3.19%
		Ral	5	7	5	18	501	3.59%
	Total		15	28	28	91	2,338	3.89%

 

Vengeance T-0 comps

 - Stillwater -  1.358x (380k)

 - Roadrunner - .659x (132k)

 - Ambulance - .538x (377k)

 

380k anyone?

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Vengeance	1-Hr	Jax	4	8	22	55	583	9.43%
		Phx	6	13	3	43	1,254	3.43%
		Ral	5	7	17	35	501	6.99%
	Total		15	28	42	133	2,338	5.69%

 

Vengeance T-1 hr comps

 - Stillwater -  .993x (278k)

 - Roadrunner - .723x (145k)

All R rated movies - 263k

All 7pm preview movies - 251k

All movies - 264k

 

Not sure if it'll get reported, but most everything seems to be coming up around 260k. 

[Old Spice]

Just put up my review in the Pets thread, but as an aside, there were TONS of walk ups at my screening, like 2-2.5X the presale. I tried to count the exact number but many of them were small and moving quickly so it was hard to get an accurate count.

[M37]

Welp, final tracking numbers are in, and bit of uncertainty in where the final number lands, though the range looks small in raw dollars, and there doesn't seem to be a massive over or under-performance looming. However, I'm going to highlight one particular trend I've noticed in the comps:

 

Santikos:

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Super Pets Thu T-0 comps

 - Minions - .164x (1.77m)

 - Sonic 2 - .257x (1.28)

 - Bad Guys - 3.44x (3.96m)

 - Lightyear - .367x (1.8m)

 - Paws of Fury - 5.91x (2.98m)

Philly:

53 minutes ago, Eric the Superdog said:

Comp

1.116x of Boss Baby 2 (1.46M)

1.082x of Jungle Cruise (2.92M)

4.466x of The Addams Family 2 (2.46M)

9.804x of Ron's Gone Wrong (2.55M)

1.258x of Encanto (1.89M)

2.275x of The Bad Guys (2.61M)

0.449x of Lightyear (2.34M)

0.292x of Minions 2 (3.14M)

5.138x of Paws of Fury (2.59M)

Jax/Phoenix/Raleigh:

51 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Super Pets T-1 hr comps

 - Minions 2 - .175x (1.876m)

 - Bad Guys - 2.11x (2.43m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .711x (1.92m)

 - Paws of Fury - 3.39x (1.71m)

 - Lightyear - .315x (1.55m)

 - Encanto - 1.107x (1.66m)

 

Now these particular tracking samples tend to more volatile in terms of Thursday market share (National Preview $/Ticket sold), so the range adds in a layer of uncertainty.  However, I have a hunch Super Pets is similarly going to skew in similar demo directions as those particular films (though the DC brand may off-set it somewhat), and away from some of the others, meaning these higher end comp figures are not actually outliers

 

Preview Prediction: $2.5M (+/- $0.2)

[Issac Newton]

Via BOR