The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Salt]

6 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bullet Train	T-10	Jax	7	51	2	55	9,463	0.58%
		Phx	6	28	4	112	6,087	1.84%
		Ral	8	27	-1	50	3,710	1.35%
	Total		21	106	5	217	19,260	1.13%
Bullet Train (EA)	T-8	Jax	5	6	2	16	1,331	1.20%
		Phx	1	1	2	16	208	7.69%
		Ral	1	1	0	14	261	5.36%
	Total		7	8	4	46	1,800	2.56%
Dragon Ball	T-24	Jax	6	26	9	77	5,795	1.33%
		Phx	6	22	41	148	4,486	3.30%
		Ral	7	21	11	105	2,812	3.73%
	Total		19	69	61	330	13,093	2.52%
Easter Sunday	T-10	Jax	6	15	2	20	2,232	0.90%
		Phx	5	13	2	8	1,595	0.50%
		Ral	7	15	2	4	1,695	0.24%
	Total		18	43	6	32	5,522	0.58%
Super Pets	T-3	Jax	6	38	7	41	4,934	0.83%
		Phx	6	24	5	46	3,615	1.27%
		Ral	7	23	30	87	3,340	2.60%
	Total		19	85	42	174	11,889	1.46%
Vengeance	T-3	Jax	3	4	5	9	286	3.15%
		Phx	5	10	0	13	1,122	1.16%
		Ral	4	5	1	5	367	1.36%
	Total		12	19	6	27	1,775	1.52%

 

Super Pets T-3 comps

 - Minions 2 - .214x (2.3m)

 - Sonic 2 - .197x (979k)

 - Bad Guys - 1.81x (2.08m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .728x (1.966m)

 - Paws of Fury - 3.22x (1.63m)

 - Lightyear - .24x (1.17m)

 - Encanto - .911x (1.366m)

 

Bullet Train (Thu) T-10 comps

 - Dune - .336x (1.71m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - .46x (2.39m)

 - F9 - .269x (1.91m)

 - Morbius - .354x (2.02m)

 

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣NOT -1. Dragon Ball is selling more in two day💀

[BruiseCruise]

Somebody is a bit salty about Pitt

[Salt]

14 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Somebody is a bit salty about Pitt

 

About him being a flop?

[Salt]

It'll be released on same day as Prey which people are really looking forward to. This movie has no chance. Zero buzz in social media. Zero

[Ronin46]

3 minutes ago, Salt said:

 

About him being a flop?

 

Another 1 of these people joining to troll BT and Pitt or just an Alt account. 

Edited July 25, 2022 by Ronin46

[Eric the Ape]

Moderation

 

This Salt is just an alt account of Thena. I don't know why Thena decided to make a new account, because their suspension was up in a week, but their trolling is over. Carry on with tracking discussion

[titanic2187]

If Superpets didn't pick up still, this coming weekend will be the first weekend since Memorial to fall below $100m in aggregate. Such a pity that July didn't close out perfectly but at least it will still be the first month since pandemic that pass $1bn gross monthly. 

[el sid]

21 hours ago, Tinalera said:

And here I had called for a Nope Thurs/Fri of 45 million, but 44 million for the opening weekend? I was WAYYYYY off on that one. Mind you Im still very new to figure out comping and stuff, so that was probably a big part  just my lack of knowledge of how horror movies open.

You're not the only one . I "predicted" more than 50M/60M and several comps even indicated a way better OW. Normally the horror film comps work way better.

Maybe Nope's performance was indeed very uneven with great results in some places and poor ones in other regions?

[el sid]

Honestly I have not the biggest interest in DC League of Super Pets. Will count it tomorrow and noticed that I didn't miss much so far looking at other reports here.

Today:

Bullet Train, counted today at 10am EST for Thursday, August 4 (10 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 97 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 47 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 5 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 5 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 25 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 141 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 178 (11 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 498.
Up very nice 73.5% since last Thursday.

Comps: The Lost City (30.5M OW) had on Tuesday before its release week (= 1 day later) 244 sold tickets

and Death on the Nile (12.9M) had on Monday of its release week (= 1 week left for Bullet Train to increase the margin) 212 sold tickets.

 

Bullet Train, counted today at 10am EST for Friday, August 5 (11 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 99 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 49 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 3 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 1 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 5 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 89 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 75 (14 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 321.

Up good 64.5% since last Thursday.
Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week for Friday which means BT has 1 week left): The Lost City had 196 sold tickets,

Ambulance (8.7M OW) had 196 sold tickets

and Death on the Nile had 198 sold tickets.

The last week is the most important one but at the moment it looks very good for BT in my theaters. This film won't flop and could even surprise IMO.

Vengeance had today 62 sold tickets for Thursday and 28 sold tickets for Friday (with showtimes in 4 theaters on both days).
It has no showtimes in the AMC Lakeline (Tx) but the sales in the AMC Barton Creek Square are pretty good: It had today 23 respectively 47 sold tickets (would be 85 and 75 sold tickets in 5 theaters then).

Edited July 25, 2022 by el sid

[Maggie]

Could Bullet Train open higher than Nope?

[Borf the Borf]

13 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Could Bullet Train open higher than Nope?

Marketing would panic there "“Nope” has earned the highest opening weekend for a film with an original screenplay" spin gets shattered in a week. Or is bullet train no original

[XXR vs XXR]

26 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Could Bullet Train open higher than Nope?

Nope

[ThatWaluigiDude]

22 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:

Marketing would panic there "“Nope” has earned the highest opening weekend for a film with an original screenplay" spin gets shattered in a week. Or is bullet train no original

It's an adaptation. Is based on a japanese book.

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, el sid said:

You're not the only one . I "predicted" more than 50M/60M and several comps even indicated a way better OW. Normally the horror film comps work way better.

Maybe Nope's performance was indeed very uneven with great results in some places and poor ones in other regions?

I am noticing up here at least for Ontario that from my counts, things post Thor 4, Paws of Fury, numbers going fairly quiet, even Nope was doing "okay?" really at best, but seeing the Paws of Fury, Super Pets, and now Bullet Train like very little movement in those films. Now BT a week and a half a way, but still very little movement. And Im wondering if its just that with Strange 2 and Thor 4 for adults, Minions 2 for families-after that, there might just be limited amount of cash available (now the economic situation probably not helping), but I have to wonder if up here if Aug turns into a kind of wasteland for theatres. 

 

Nice to know I wasn't the only one who was way off lol

[filmlover]

Bullet Train is well-positioned for $30M+. It looks very entertaining, Pitt is a draw in the right kind of vehicle (which this is), and it's the last of the movies with blockbuster aspirations for the summer (and the next two months after it, for that matter). As long as it gets good reviews it's set up to have a nice long run.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I'd say 32-35 for Bullet Train and a leggy run. Tickets aren't on sale at Cinemark here, but I don't think it would have been a big seller

 

Thursday AMC (27)

IMAX: 350 (3), 705 (3) = (6)

DOLBY: 450 (9), 8 (11) = (20)

3 (0), 605 (1) = (1)

 

FRIDAY AMC (14)

IMAX: 250 (3), 605 (1), 910 (0) = (4)

DOLBY: 1 (2), 4 (1), 7 (7), 10 (0) = (10)

150 (0), 455 (0), 805 (0) 

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I'd say 32-35 for Bullet Train and a leggy run.

I think so too. I have a misguided UNDER 80M club which will spectacularly fail. The movie will get great reviews and it seems the funny route they've taken is gonna make a very crowdpleasing movie

Edited July 25, 2022 by Maggie

[Eric the Ape]

I could actually see an opening on par with Nope, if not slightly higher. Tickets sales are consistently strong, plus the concept is always a fun one, and I think this will do very well critically to tip it over the edge

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Is Sony doing early screenings or fan events for Bullet Train? 

 

Wouldn't be a bad idea to get the WOM out, but if they skip them then it wouldn't really inflate the preview numbers too much

[M37]

On 7/22/2022 at 8:09 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Nope	3,333	105,754		91,661		14,093	5,034	0
Thor 4	3,480	66,410	-43.08%	63,993	399.72	2,417	18	1,332
Minions 2	3,167	57,722	-17.25%	56,144	384.77	1,578	6	1,346
Crawdads Sing	3,092	40,062	-12.31%	39,966	320.36	96	0	0
Top Gun 2	2,694	32,684	-6.45%	32,525	351.17	159	21	0
Paws of Fury	2,929	30,135	-30.24%	30,077	123.78	58	0	0
Elvis	2,593	24,185	-13.19%	24,127	287.17	58	0	0
The Black Phone	1,819	17,876	-22.61%	17,835	232.60	41	0	0
Jurassic World 3	1,865	15,737	-30.11%	15,548	228.83	189	0	132
Mrs. Harris	927	9,925	-17.18%	9,913	146.47	12	0	0
Marcel the Shell	524	7,388	257.95%	7,388	275.15	0	0	0
Lightyear	538	3,709	-53.05%	3,706	177.28	3	0	0
Shamshera	323	2,889		2,889		0	0	0
The Gray Man	278	2,215	-58.81%	2,208		7	0	0
Thank You	266	2,538		2,538		0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 7/22/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Nope - 105,754 (3,333) (14,093 PLF)

 - FB3 - 108,862 (3,417) (13,126)

 - No Time to Die - 112,174 (3,529) (6,225 IMAX)

 - Suicide Squad - 99,553 (3,252) (4,272 IMAX)

 

T-1 Week

Super-Pets - 41,515 (2,437 TC)

 - Lost City - 38,802 (2,634)

 - Sonic 2 - 51,242 (2,764)

Vengeance - 9,512 (658 TC)

 - The Outfit - 9,823 (821)

 - The King's Daughter - 10,270 (815)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Bullet Train 8/2 EA - 670 (608 TC)

Bullet Train - 8,244 (1,877 TC)

 - Nope - 8,442 (2,194)

 - Sonic 2 - 7,979 (2,389)

Easter Sunday - 4,712 (1,706 TC)

 - Crawdads - 5,157 (1,803)

 - Black Phone - 4,684 (1,873)

 - Bad Guys - 4,606 (1,929)

Just want to note that both Paws of Fury and Lightyear actually increased their PSA ($/show) this past weekend. Now Paws was way over-screened for OW, had a lot of unnecessary shows that it dropped for week 2, but LY did not this far into the run 

 

With Minions and even Thor not holding particularly well and already satiating a lot of those initially interested, we could be reaching the summer doldrums, in the “dear god when do the kids go back to school is there anything we can do with them” sense 
 

Sales for Super Pets started weak, in that there was little fan rush, but pace is good, and I wouldn’t totally write it off just yet, as it has enough star power to draw in more moderately interested families, with fewer options available