The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[reddevil19]

1 hour ago, snarkmachine said:

Black Adam doing worse than Shang-Chi did at the height of the pandemic would be a disaster for WB and the Rock.

Height of the pandemic... Oookay. I see loads of re-writing history happening.

Anyway, 55-60 million OW could translate into 150+ and maybe 400+ WW, depending on WOM. Hardly a hit, but given how mediocre the movie has looked all through its promo campaign, it would be par for the course tbh. I suppose the bigger question is how they handle The Rock and the character moving forward, as relates potential interactions with Shazam and/or Superman. 

[GOGODanca]

On 10/18/2022 at 1:04 PM, GOGODanca said:

T-2 Black Adam:

 

1482 tickets sold across 91 showtimes at 10 local AMC's (21.2% jump from YD)

T-5 hours Black Adam:

 

2,208 tickets sold across 108 showtimes at 10 local AMC's (49% jump in ~45 hours)

 

 

[Durden]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ Tracking for Huge $175M-Plus Debut

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/black-panther-wakanda-forever-box-office-tracking-1235245172/

 

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/black-panther-wakanda-forever-box-office-opening-weekend-1235409682/

 

"Many rival studio executives believe that figure could grow after reviews hit and word-of-mouth builds [..] Advance ticket sales are already strong and the initial word among the select few who have seen rough cuts of the movie is that the sequel delivers the goods".

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Adam	PLF	39	164	1,516	8,898	17.04%	$15.08	$22,860.37
		Standard	66	269	1,112	8,768	12.68%	$11.23	$12,492.36
	Total		105	433	2,628	17,666	14.88%	$13.45	$35,352.73
T-0	Paradise	Standard	32	50	224	2,710	8.27%	$12.31	$2,758.06
	Total		32	50	224	2,710	8.27%	$12.31	$2,758.06

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Adam	N	85	390	2,357	14,663	16.07%	$13.85	$32,639.68
		Y	20	43	271	3,003	9.02%	$10.01	$2,713.05
	Total		105	433	2,628	17,666	14.88%	$13.45	$35,352.73

 

Black Adam T-0 comps

 - Batman - .351x (6.18m)

 - Batman + EA - .332x (7.16m)

 - Thor 4 - .232x (6.73m)

 - Morbius - 1.334x (7.6m)

 

On the lower side here too.  I'll go with 7m for previews

 

Paradise T-0 comps

 - Downton - .929x (976k)

 - Crawdads - .436x (872k)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.394x (1.7m)

 - Bob's Burgers - .649x (974k)

 

Should get close to a million.  Maybe 975k true Thursday

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Black Adam (Fri)	PLF	43	1,706	1,706	10,170	16.77%	$14.95	$25,497.97
		Standard	89	841	841	11,478	7.33%	$10.82	$9,095.53
	Total		132	2,547	2,547	21,648	11.77%	$13.58	$34,593.50
T-1	Paradise (Fri)	PLF	4	26	26	512	5.08%	$14.95	$388.70
		Standard	51	242	242	5,233	4.62%	$11.67	$2,823.77
	Total		55	268	268	5,745	4.66%	$11.99	$3,212.47

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Black Adam (Fri)	N	85	2,180	2,180	14,256	15.29%	$14.04	$30,605.26
		Y	47	367	367	7,392	4.96%	$10.87	$3,988.24
	Total		132	2,547	2,547	21,648	11.77%	$13.58	$34,593.50
T-1	Paradise (Fri)	N	29	211	211	3,343	6.31%	$12.83	$2,706.37
		Y	26	57	57	2,402	2.37%	$8.88	$506.10
	Total		55	268	268	5,745	4.66%	$11.99	$3,212.47

 

Black Adam Fri T-1 comps

 - Batman - .329x (11.53m)

 - Thor 4 - .328x (13.28m)

 - Morbius - 1.689x (19.6m)

 - DS2 - .191x (10.46m)

 

Paradise Fri T-1 comps

 - Crawdads - .559x (2.95m)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.51x (3.84m)

 - Bullet Train - .74x (6.1m)

[Tinalera]

2 hours ago, Maggie said:

‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ Tracking for Huge $175M-Plus Debut

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/black-panther-wakanda-forever-box-office-tracking-1235245172/

 

For some quick comparisons for anyone interested-Thor Love and Thunder did a 144 OW, Dr Strange 2 did 187 million OW and Black Panther had a 200 Mil OW (that was precovid) Just for some context.

[TalismanRing]

FWIW

 

NY Local Regal (3pm Count - 3pm first show)

Black Adam:  200/2638    

THUR Comps

Venom 2 (3:15pm) - $7.63m
Shang-Chi (5pm) - $3.44m
Eternals (6pm) -  $3.64m
Birds Of Prey (5pm)- $4.82m
Black Widow (4pm) - $5.3m
The Suicide Squad (6:15pm)- $5.6m
Bad Boys 3 (4pm) - $5.17m

 

Venom was by far the biggest walk up CBM of this lot.  
Shang Chi and Externals wildly over indexed at my theater

 

I don't have Hobbs & Shaw ($5.8m) Thur numbers but it did 181 tickets as of Wed 4pm.  At noon today Black Adam had done 147 tickets - so behind H&S's pace

 

 

[Porthos]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Adam Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	249	28462	31616	3154	9.98%

 

Total Showings Added Today	17
Total Seats Added Today	797
Total Seats Sold Today	585

 

T-1 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	234.85		281	1343		0/107	15221/16564	8.11%		2352	134.10%		9.63m
SC	75.60		893	4172		0/188	20813/24985	16.70%		5847	53.94%		6.65m
LTBC	61.52		1372	5127		0/244	28009/33136	15.47%		7712	40.90%		7.14m
ET	67.51		739	4672		0/136	13796/18468	25.30%		6409	49.21%		6.41m
Bats	33.06		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		11757	26.83%		7.14m
Morb	127.07		577	2482		0/184	21853/24335	10.20%		3477	90.71%		7.24m
JW3	37.46		1560	8419		0/290	25319/33738	24.95%		10966	28.76%		6.74m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Adam's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	102.31		439	2899		0/168	17632/20531	14.12%		4407	67.30%		7.61m
BA (adj)			541	2966		0/222	24774/27740	10.69%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BA (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:       715/11500  [6.22% sold]
Matinee:    165/3831  [4.31% | 5.23% of all tickets sold]

 

Black Adam Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:35 am-12:25 pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	250	28058	31678	3620	11.43%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	1
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	62
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	466

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS [12:15-12:45]	216.77		327	1670		0/111	15173/16843	9.92%		2352	153.91%		8.89m
SC [12:00-12:55]	75.32		634	4806		0/192	20644/25450	18.88%		5847	61.91%		6.63m
LTBC [12:00-12:50]	57.07		1216	6343		0/247	27313/33656	18.85%		7712	46.94%		6.62m
ET [12:00-12:30]	68.12		642	5314		0/136	13154/18468	28.77%		6409	56.48%		6.47m
Bats [11:30-12:35]	34.55		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		11757	30.79%		7.46m
Morb [12:00-12:40]	125.00		414	2896		0/183	21262/24158	11.99%		3477	104.11%		7.13m
JW3 [12:00-12:50]	38.15		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	33.01%		6.87m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Adam's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-0	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9 [12:00-12:45]	100.03		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		4407	76.95%		7.44m
BA (adj)			425	3391		0/223	24411/27802	12.20%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BA (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:       862/11500  [7.50% sold]
Matinee:    237/3831  [6.19% | 6.55% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Eh. 

 

Limited sample size, but so far DC has somewhat under-performed locally compared to MCU films.  Add in ticket inflation for films before The Batman in my comps and 7 to 7.5 looks likely.  Maybe closer to 8 if Sacto is under-performing for DC once again.  Both the TSS and F9 comps are gonna drop pretty hard at final report (for different reasons), so keep that in mind.

 

Still.  Eh.  Could be better, could be worse.

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

FWIW

 

NY Local Regal (3pm Count - 3pm first show)

Black Adam:  200/2638    

THUR Comps

Venom 2 (3:15pm) - $7.63m
Shang-Chi (5pm) - $3.44m
Eternals (6pm) -  $3.64m
Birds Of Prey (5pm)- $4.82m
Black Widow (4pm) - $5.3m
The Suicide Squad (6:15pm)- $5.6m
Bad Boys 3 (4pm) - $5.17m

 

Venom was by far the biggest walk up CBM of this lot.  
Shang Chi and Externals wildly over indexed at my theater

 

I don't have Hobbs & Shaw ($5.8m) Thur numbers but it did 181 tickets as of Wed 4pm.  At noon today Black Adam had done 147 tickets - so behind H&S's pace

 

 

 

NowThat'sANameI'veNotHeard DOT GIF

[el sid]

Black Adam, counted today at 11am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 531 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 474 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 73 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 28 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 146 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 522 (13 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 797 (18 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.571.

Up 14% since yesterday. At least that was a better jump than from Tuesday to Wednesday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday of the release week for Thursday):
TSS (4.1M from previews) had 1.929 sold tickets = 1.335x for Black Adam = 5.5M + no HBO Max competition = 7-8M would still be my guess.
SC (8.8M) had 3.617 sold tickets = 71% of SC = 6.25M.
Eternals (9.5M) had 4.067 = 63% = 6M. So almost no changes in all of these comps.
Venom 2 (11.6M from previews, not 10M as reported yesterday which means yesterday the correct comp would have been 10.5M for BA) had 3.384 sold tickets = 76% = 8.8M. That number sounds good but it means that Black Adam lost 2M in comparison since yesterday and that trend will continue so I go with ca. 6.8M here.
 

So between 6-8M judging from my comps. I just go with 7M in previews.

[ThomasNicole]

5 hours ago, reddevil19 said:

Height of the pandemic... Oookay. I see loads of re-writing history happening.

It literally dropped with the Delta variant boom

[el sid]

Ticket to Paradise, counted today at 11am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 22 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 9 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 8 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 40 (13 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 68 (18 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 153.

Up 51% since yesterday.
Comps: TLC had 745 sold tickets,

Crawdads had 262 sold tickets

and Death on the Nile had 466 sold tickets.

Ticket to Paradise, counted today at 11am EST for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 26 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 24 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 13 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 1 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 53 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 62 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 179.

Up 42% since yesterday.
Comps: TLC had 695 sold tickets,

Crawdads had also for that day 262 sold tickets

and Death on the Nile had 487 sold tickets.
 

It seems that this film needs big walk-ups to reach double digits. At least the Thursday-Friday ratio is good, it's not frontloaded. But still, with these presales I don't see more than 15M OW.

 

The Devil's Light had today 42 and 53 sold tickets for Thursday and Friday.
Comp: Beast had also on the Thursday before its release week (but the tickets were on sale since Monday or earlier) 85 and 44 sold tickets.
Not bad so far and I'm curious how much it will jump till next Monday.

Edited October 20, 2022 by el sid

[Tinalera]

Black Adam 

Oct 21 (T-1 Friday only)

SW/Toronto Ontario

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Fri	20	187	3033	41909	40193	0.0754

 

Comps

 

x .2399 Dr Strange 2 (1.48 Mil Cdn)

x .3123 Thor 4(1.93 Mil Cdn

[filmlover]

Black Adam is selling really well for tomorrow where I'm looking. Doubt it's going to be overly frontloaded.

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Adam Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Thursday(185 showings): 4613(+528)/25521 ATP: $15.28

0.211x Thor L&T T-1 (6.11M)

0.405x Jurassic World 3 T-1 (7.29M)

0.165x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (5.94M)

0.256x Batman T-1 (4.50M, Thurs only)

0.583x Eternals T-1 (5.54M)

 

T-2 Friday(268 showings): 5035(+812)/36487 ATP: $15.28

0.247x Thor L&T T-2 (10.02M)

0.349x Jurassic World 3 T-2 (14.51M)

0.173x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (9.46M)

0.230x Batman T-2 (8.06M)

0.578x Eternals T-2 (12.33M)

 

T-3 Saturday(274 showings): 4406(+618)/37561 ATP: $14.71

0.232x Thor L&T T-3 (9.77M)

0.326x Jurassic World 3 T-3 (15.29M)

0.145x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (8.41M)

0.192x Batman T-3 (8.30M)

0.533x Eternals T-3 (12.85M)

 

T-4 Sunday(239 showings): 1763(+324)/31896 ATP: $13.83

0.152x Thor L&T T-4 (4.95M)

0.221x Jurassic World 3 T-4 (8.53M)

0.100x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (3.85M)

0.146x Batman T-4 (4.97M)

0.358x Eternals T-4 (5.85M)

Black Adam Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 Thursday(185 showings): 6211(+1598)/25521 ATP: $15.17

0.232x Thor L&T T-0 (6.73M)

0.402x Jurassic World 3 T-0 (7.24M)

0.192x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (6.91M)

0.297x Batman T-0 (5.22M, Thurs only)

0.621x Eternals T-0 (5.90M)

 

T-1 Friday(268 showings): 6254(+1219)/36487 ATP: $15.20

0.251x Thor L&T T-1 (10.18M)

0.352x Jurassic World 3 T-1 (14.64M)

0.192x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (10.50M)

0.248x Batman T-1 (8.68M)

0.599x Eternals T-1 (12.78M)

 

T-2 Saturday(274 showings): 5342(+936)/37561 ATP: $14.59

0.236x Thor L&T T-2 (9.92M)

0.327x Jurassic World 3 T-2 (15.35M)

0.159x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (9.19M)

0.199x Batman T-2 (8.61M)

0.540x Eternals T-2 (13.03M)

 

T-3 Sunday(239 showings): 2176(+413)/31896 ATP: $13.90

0.161x Thor L&T T-3 (5.23M)

0.226x Jurassic World 3 T-3 (8.73M)

0.106x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (4.13M)

0.146x Batman T-3 (5.00M)

0.383x Eternals T-3 (6.25M)

Edited October 20, 2022 by Inceptionzq

[Dragoncaine]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Black Adam is selling really well for tomorrow where I'm looking. Doubt it's going to be overly frontloaded.

Which spots have you checked? I have very low expectations for the movie itself, but I hope it performs well enough for theaters.

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Adam Megaplex

 

T-1 Thursday(94 showings): 1139(+181)/28155

0.112x Thor L&T T-1 (3.26M)

0.205x Jurassic World 3 T-1 (3.69M)

0.135x Batman T-1 (2.92M)

0.389x Eternals T-1 (3.70M)

0.461x Shang-Chi T-1 (4.05M)

 

T-2 Friday(194 showings): 1392(+235)/53224

0.201x Thor L&T T-2 (8.15M)

0.196x Jurassic World 3 T-2 (8.17M)

0.212x Batman T-2 (7.41M)

0.473x Eternals T-2 (10.10M)

0.620x Shang-Chi T-2 (12.83M)

 

T-3 Saturday(200 showings): 982(+177)/54622

0.249x Thor L&T T-3 (10.49M)

0.197x Jurassic World 3 T-3 (9.26M)

0.258x Batman T-3 (11.18M)

0.592x Eternals T-3 (14.27M)

 

T-4 Sunday(183 showings): 402(+55)/51033

0.297x Thor L&T T-4 (9.65M)

0.230x Jurassic World 3 T-4 (8.88M)

0.444x Batman T-4 (15.15M)

0.944x Eternals T-4 (15.41M)

Black Adam Megaplex

 

T-0 Thursday(97 showings): 1849(+710)/28470

0.127x Thor L&T T-0 (3.68M)

0.224x Jurassic World 3 T-0 (4.02M)

0.172x Batman T-0 (3.72M)

0.382x Eternals T-0 (3.63M)

0.555x Venom 2 T-0 (6.44M)

0.435x Shang-Chi T-0 (3.82M)

1.78x Suicide Squad T-0 (7.30M)

 

T-1 Friday(196 showings): 1799(+407)/53939

0.202x Thor L&T T-1 (8.19M)

0.195x Jurassic World 3 T-1 (8.11M)

0.209x Batman T-1 (7.31M)

0.464x Eternals T-1 (9.90M)

 

T-2 Saturday(200 showings): 1217(+235)/54622

0.37x Thor L&T T-2 (10.00M)

0.194x Jurassic World 3 T-2 (9.10M)

0.237x Batman T-2 (10.24M)

0.566x Eternals T-2 (13.65M)

 

T-3 Sunday(183 showings): 497(+95)/51033

0.283x Thor L&T T-3 (9.20M)

0.218x Jurassic World 3 T-3 (8.40M)

0.382x Batman T-3 (13.04M)

0.861x Eternals T-3 (14.07M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Adam Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

373

2584

14.43%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

332

1770

18.76%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1895	301	24354	7.78%	15	132

 

AMCs sold	1212
Cinemarks sold	322
Regals sold	186
Harkins sold	175

 

0.209x Thor L&T T-1 (6.07M)

0.376x Jurassic World 3 T-1 (6.77M)

0.148x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (5.33M)

0.270x Batman T-1 (5.84M)

0.663x Eternals T-1 (6.29M)

0.797x Shang-Chi T-1 (7.02M)

Black Adam Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

532

2584

20.59%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

434

1770

24.52%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2909	1014	24354	11.94%	15	132

 

AMCs sold	1697
Cinemarks sold	559
Regals sold	324
Harkins sold	329

 

0.238x Thor L&T T-0 (6.90M)

0.407x Jurassic World 3 T-0 (7.32M)

0.189x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (6.82M)

0.336x Batman T-0 (7.25M)

0.653x Eternals T-0 (6.21M)

0.664x Venom 2 T-0 (7.70M)

0.721x Shang-Chi T-0 (6.34M)

1.47x Suicide Squad T-0 (6.04M)

1.01x Fast 9 T-0 (7.19M)

 

Mostly gonna ignore Megaplex comps with its obvious underperformance. Venom 2 and Suicide Squad both underindexed there so those comps should be good. Looks like what has been expected for a while. I'll go with 7.1M

Edited October 20, 2022 by Inceptionzq

[filmlover]

17 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Which spots have you checked? I have very low expectations for the movie itself, but I hope it performs well enough for theaters.

I've mostly been checking all over the highest populated areas of Florida, and it's selling well at the most popular theaters in those areas. Also worth mentioning that Ticket to Paradise is also doing well in areas where there are high senior populations: given how old that movie's audience will likely be (no one should be surprised if it's 2/3 or more over 50), not a big shock (and something to factor in when it comes to tracking it).

[Old Spice]

So... I did this thing, just for grins, and it must be totally insane because my number doesn't remotely mesh with anybody else's, but I decided to do one comp for BA and do it across 23 theaters nationwide. The comp is Halloween Ends. Fan driven, review proof (at least on preview night), and a franchise with lots of ups and downs over the years. The theaters I chose were as follows:

 

Boston- AMC Boston Common 19 and South Bay Center 12, NYC- AMC Empire 25 and 34th Street 14

Newark- AMC New Park 12 and Dine-in Sunnyvale 8, Tampa- AMC Veteran's 24 and Regency 20,

Orlando- AMC Altamonte Mall 18, Indianapolis- AMC Indianapolis 17 and Castleton Square 14,

Chicago- AMC Village Crossing 18, Dallas- AMC NorthPark 15 and Village on the Parkway 9,

Phoenix- AMC Westgate 20 and Deer Valley 17, Salt Lake Valley- Cinemark Sugarhouse, Draper XD, and Farmington XD, Anaheim- AMC Orange 30, Riverside- AMC Tyler Galleria 16 and Dine-in Ontario Mills 30, and Seattle- AMC Alderwood Mall 16.

 

The counts:

Boston- Black Adam 665, Halloween 193

NYC- Black Adam 1570, Halloween 550

Newark- Black Adam 742, Halloween 214

Tampa- Black Adam 1184, Halloween 447

Orlando- Black Adam 556, Halloween 261

Indianapolis- Black Adam 880, Halloween 425

Chicago- Black Adam 348, Halloween 220

Dallas- Black Adam 922, Halloween 375

Phoenix- Black Adam 573, Halloween 331

Salt Lake Valley- Black Adam 331, Halloween 216

Anaheim- Black Adam 884, Halloween 560

Riverside- Black Adam 1400, Halloween 879

Seattle- Black Adam 542, Halloween 142

 

Total: Black Adam 10,591, Halloween 4805

220% of Halloween preview = $11.9

 

Now, I would love to see that happen, but the realist in me says that's unlikely, so my question for the gurus is, where did I go astray? I fried my eyeballs doing all these hand counts, when it turns out my little sample of three theaters in the SL Valley would have actually led to a result much closer to the consensus. Thoughts?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, A Star is Delayed said:

So... I did this thing, just for grins, and it must be totally insane because my number doesn't remotely mesh with anybody else's, but I decided to do one comp for BA and do it across 23 theaters nationwide. The comp is Halloween Ends. Fan driven, review proof (at least on preview night), and a franchise with lots of ups and downs over the years. The theaters I chose were as follows:

 

Boston- AMC Boston Common 19 and South Bay Center 12, NYC- AMC Empire 25 and 34th Street 14

Newark- AMC New Park 12 and Dine-in Sunnyvale 8, Tampa- AMC Veteran's 24 and Regency 20,

Orlando- AMC Altamonte Mall 18, Indianapolis- AMC Indianapolis 17 and Castleton Square 14,

Chicago- AMC Village Crossing 18, Dallas- AMC NorthPark 15 and Village on the Parkway 9,

Phoenix- AMC Westgate 20 and Deer Valley 17, Salt Lake Valley- Cinemark Sugarhouse, Draper XD, and Farmington XD, Anaheim- AMC Orange 30, Riverside- AMC Tyler Galleria 16 and Dine-in Ontario Mills 30, and Seattle- AMC Alderwood Mall 16.

 

The counts:

Boston- Black Adam 665, Halloween 193

NYC- Black Adam 1570, Halloween 550

Newark- Black Adam 742, Halloween 214

Tampa- Black Adam 1184, Halloween 447

Orlando- Black Adam 556, Halloween 261

Indianapolis- Black Adam 880, Halloween 425

Chicago- Black Adam 348, Halloween 220

Dallas- Black Adam 922, Halloween 375

Phoenix- Black Adam 573, Halloween 331

Salt Lake Valley- Black Adam 331, Halloween 216

Anaheim- Black Adam 884, Halloween 560

Riverside- Black Adam 1400, Halloween 879

Seattle- Black Adam 542, Halloween 142

 

Total: Black Adam 10,591, Halloween 4805

220% of Halloween preview = $11.9

 

Now, I would love to see that happen, but the realist in me says that's unlikely, so my question for the gurus is, where did I go astray? I fried my eyeballs doing all these hand counts, when it turns out my little sample of three theaters in the SL Valley would have actually led to a result much closer to the consensus. Thoughts?

 

Prob directed more at @el sid, as they do something similar I think, but I tend to think from the observations of just my market  if one just samples a major/the biggest theater in an area, you might be prone to more variance simply because the best theaters in a region should always do well.  The proof is in the secondary and lesser tiers if only for spill over.

 

Like, if I only sampled Century Arden and nothing else, it'd probably take me a while longer for my comps to stabilize.

 

But, also, with only two pieces of data (and ones from pretty disparate genres) it's not that big of a surprise to see some outliers.  Sometimes just takes time for a model to align correctly.