The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

M37 · October 21, 2022

Really don't know what to make of Ticket To Paradise. Maybe it posts the first non-animated >14x IM since ... I don't even know when, or maybe the expected senior-heavy audience is pre-buy heavy and walk-ups are light, a la Downton. Anything from like $13M to even $20M wouldn't surprise me based on data in hand

Will note that a 5PM preview start was ... a not very wise choice. Given Black Adam opening hogging a lot of screens, many locations were locked into a single screen 5pm & 8pm showtimes, the latter of which is too late for the olds. 4PM/7PM would have been much better

filmlover · October 21, 2022

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Really don't know what to make of Ticket To Paradise. Maybe it posts the first non-animated >14x IM since ... I don't even know when, or maybe the expected senior-heavy audience is pre-buy heavy and walk-ups are light, a la Downton. Anything from like $13M to even $20M wouldn't surprise me based on data in hand

Will note that a 5PM preview start was ... a not very wise choice. Given Black Adam opening hogging a lot of screens, many locations were locked into a single screen 5pm & 8pm showtimes, the latter of which is too late for the olds. 4PM/7PM would have been much better

I wouldn't consider Downton Abbey to be a workable comparison here since that had a built-in fan base that fronloaded it thanks to the TV show. This should be backloaded as an original title.

M37 · October 21, 2022

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I wouldn't consider Downton Abbey to be a workable comparison here since that had a built-in fan base that fronloaded it thanks to the TV show. This should be backloaded as an original title.

I agree, even if that’s probably the closest comp in terms of demos. But older skewing NTTD had a similar high pre-sale low walk-up ratio, while older women appealing yet more GA friendly Dog and Lost City had lower IMs. A decent case can be made for a wide range of outcomes from the expected ~$1.1M preview number

katnisscinnaplex · October 21, 2022

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

By format

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Black Adam (Fri) PLF 43 1,706 1,706 10,170 16.77% $14.95 $25,497.97
Standard 89 841 841 11,478 7.33% $10.82 $9,095.53
Total 132 2,547 2,547 21,648 11.77% $13.58 $34,593.50
T-1 Paradise (Fri) PLF 4 26 26 512 5.08% $14.95 $388.70
Standard 51 242 242 5,233 4.62% $11.67 $2,823.77
Total 55 268 268 5,745 4.66% $11.99 $3,212.47

By matinee

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Black Adam (Fri) N 85 2,180 2,180 14,256 15.29% $14.04 $30,605.26
Y 47 367 367 7,392 4.96% $10.87 $3,988.24
Total 132 2,547 2,547 21,648 11.77% $13.58 $34,593.50
T-1 Paradise (Fri) N 29 211 211 3,343 6.31% $12.83 $2,706.37
Y 26 57 57 2,402 2.37% $8.88 $506.10
Total 55 268 268 5,745 4.66% $11.99 $3,212.47

Black Adam Fri T-1 comps

- Batman - .329x (11.53m)

- Thor 4 - .328x (13.28m)

- Morbius - 1.689x (19.6m)

- DS2 - .191x (10.46m)

Paradise Fri T-1 comps

- Crawdads - .559x (2.95m)

- Easter Sunday - 2.51x (3.84m)

- Bullet Train - .74x (6.1m)

Santikos Tracking

By format

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Adam (Fri)	PLF	43	559	2,265	10,170	22.27%	$14.85	$33,626.22
		Standard	89	741	1,582	11,478	13.78%	$10.91	$17,254.54
	Total		132	1,300	3,847	21,648	17.77%	$13.23	$50,880.76
T-0	Paradise (Fri)	PLF	4	36	62	512	12.11%	$15.02	$931.15
		Standard	55	354	596	5,825	10.23%	$11.31	$6,741.22
	Total		59	390	658	6,337	10.38%	$11.66	$7,672.37

By matinee

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Adam (Fri)	N	85	1,040	3,220	14,256	22.59%	$13.75	$44,284.41
		Y	47	260	627	7,392	8.48%	$10.52	$6,596.35
	Total		132	1,300	3,847	21,648	17.77%	$13.23	$50,880.76
T-0	Paradise (Fri)	N	31	234	445	3,639	12.23%	$12.82	$5,703.19
		Y	28	156	213	2,698	7.89%	$9.24	$1,969.18
	Total		59	390	658	6,337	10.38%	$11.66	$7,672.37

Black Adam Fri T-0 comps

- Batman - .391x (13.68m)

- Thor 4 - .342x (13.88m)

- Morbius - 1.559x (18.1m)

- DS2 - .241x (13.2m)

Adjusted comps

- Batman - 14.51m

- Thor 4 - 15.69m

- Morbius - 18.09m

- DS2 - 16.82m

Black Adam followed Morbius exactly in Santikos. Will Friday follow suit? I'll go a little under because of the other comps and say ~16.8m for True Friday

Paradise Fri T-0 comps

- Crawdads - .827x (4.35m)

- Easter Sunday - 2.64x (4.05m)

- Bullet Train - .726x (5.99m)

Adjusted comps

- Crawdads - 5.49m

- Easter Sunday - 2.63m

- Bullet Train - 4.05m

A lot of variation here, but looking at all adjusted movies it looks like the average is around 4.4m for true Friday.

Dragoncaine · October 21, 2022

Where does a $7.6m preview number put us for the weekend when looking at Friday presales? Still around $60-65m?

Can't say I fully understand the $200m budget on this one, sight unseen. From a conceptual standpoint, if they could've kept the solo origin story of a fairly unknown character to $150-160m, things would be looking much better - especially with negative critical reception likely driving some segment of the GA away to an extent.

Edited October 21, 2022 by Dragoncaine

ZeeSoh · October 21, 2022

12 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Where does a $7.6m preview number put us for the weekend when looking at Friday presales? Still around $60-65m?

Can't say I fully understand the $200m budget on this one, sight unseen. From a conceptual standpoint, if they could've kept the solo origin story of a fairly unknown character to $150-160m, things would be looking much better - especially with negative critical reception likely driving some segment of the GA away to an extent.

7.6 + Katniss's Friday comp will lead to about 59-60m (assuming better holds than Eternals and Venom 2)

katnisscinnaplex · October 21, 2022

45 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

By format

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Black Adam (Fri) PLF 43 559 2,265 10,170 22.27% $14.85 $33,626.22
Standard 89 741 1,582 11,478 13.78% $10.91 $17,254.54
Total 132 1,300 3,847 21,648 17.77% $13.23 $50,880.76
T-0 Paradise (Fri) PLF 4 36 62 512 12.11% $15.02 $931.15
Standard 55 354 596 5,825 10.23% $11.31 $6,741.22
Total 59 390 658 6,337 10.38% $11.66 $7,672.37

By matinee

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Black Adam (Fri) N 85 1,040 3,220 14,256 22.59% $13.75 $44,284.41
Y 47 260 627 7,392 8.48% $10.52 $6,596.35
Total 132 1,300 3,847 21,648 17.77% $13.23 $50,880.76
T-0 Paradise (Fri) N 31 234 445 3,639 12.23% $12.82 $5,703.19
Y 28 156 213 2,698 7.89% $9.24 $1,969.18
Total 59 390 658 6,337 10.38% $11.66 $7,672.37

Black Adam Fri T-0 comps

- Batman - .391x (13.68m)

- Thor 4 - .342x (13.88m)

- Morbius - 1.559x (18.1m)

- DS2 - .241x (13.2m)

Adjusted comps

- Batman - 14.51m

- Thor 4 - 15.69m

- Morbius - 18.09m

- DS2 - 16.82m

Black Adam followed Morbius exactly in Santikos. Will Friday follow suit? I'll go a little under because of the other comps and say ~16.8m for True Friday

Paradise Fri T-0 comps

- Crawdads - .827x (4.35m)

- Easter Sunday - 2.64x (4.05m)

- Bullet Train - .726x (5.99m)

Adjusted comps

- Crawdads - 5.49m

- Easter Sunday - 2.63m

- Bullet Train - 4.05m

A lot of variation here, but looking at all adjusted movies it looks like the average is around 4.4m for true Friday.

Santikos Tracking

By format

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Black Adam (Sat)	PLF	43	1,836	1,836	10,170	18.05%	$13.77	$25,290.45
		Standard	89	1,051	1,051	11,478	9.16%	$9.80	$10,294.94
	Total		132	2,887	2,887	21,648	13.34%	$12.33	$35,585.39
T-1	Paradise (Sat)	PLF	4	29	29	512	5.66%	$13.35	$387.05
		Standard	55	246	246	5,825	4.22%	$10.34	$2,542.57
	Total		59	275	275	6,337	4.34%	$10.65	$2,929.62

By matinee

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Black Adam (Sat)	N	85	1,588	1,588	14,256	11.14%	$13.76	$21,853.64
		Y	47	1,299	1,299	7,392	17.57%	$10.57	$13,731.75
	Total		132	2,887	2,887	21,648	13.34%	$12.33	$35,585.39
T-1	Paradise (Sat)	N	31	105	105	3,639	2.89%	$12.35	$1,296.83
		Y	28	170	170	2,698	6.30%	$9.60	$1,632.79
	Total		59	275	275	6,337	4.34%	$10.65	$2,929.62

Black Adam Sat T-1 comps

- Batman - .354x (15.31m)

- Thor 4 - .381x (16.03m)

- DS2 - missed

Adjusted comps

- Batman - 16.25m

- Thor 4 - 18.11m

Maybe around 16.5m Saturday?

Paradise Sat T-1 comps

- Crawdads - .619x (3.316m)

- Easter Sunday - 3.27x (5.91m)

- Bullet Train - .521x (5.04m)

Adjusted comps

- Crawdads - 4.18m

- Easter Sunday - 3.83m

- Bullet Train - 3.41m

Santikos is pointing to a small drop from true Friday, which would be disappointing. We'll see how it looks tomorrow.

efialtes76 · October 21, 2022

8 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

By format

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Black Adam (Sat) PLF 43 1,836 1,836 10,170 18.05% $13.77 $25,290.45
Standard 89 1,051 1,051 11,478 9.16% $9.80 $10,294.94
Total 132 2,887 2,887 21,648 13.34% $12.33 $35,585.39
T-1 Paradise (Sat) PLF 4 29 29 512 5.66% $13.35 $387.05
Standard 55 246 246 5,825 4.22% $10.34 $2,542.57
Total 59 275 275 6,337 4.34% $10.65 $2,929.62

By matinee

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Black Adam (Sat) N 85 1,588 1,588 14,256 11.14% $13.76 $21,853.64
Y 47 1,299 1,299 7,392 17.57% $10.57 $13,731.75
Total 132 2,887 2,887 21,648 13.34% $12.33 $35,585.39
T-1 Paradise (Sat) N 31 105 105 3,639 2.89% $12.35 $1,296.83
Y 28 170 170 2,698 6.30% $9.60 $1,632.79
Total 59 275 275 6,337 4.34% $10.65 $2,929.62

Black Adam Sat T-1 comps

- Batman - .354x (15.31m)

- Thor 4 - .381x (16.03m)

- DS2 - missed

Adjusted comps

- Batman - 16.25m

- Thor 4 - 18.11m

Maybe around 16.5m Saturday?

Paradise Sat T-1 comps

- Crawdads - .619x (3.316m)

- Easter Sunday - 3.27x (5.91m)

- Bullet Train - .521x (5.04m)

Adjusted comps

- Crawdads - 4.18m

- Easter Sunday - 3.83m

- Bullet Train - 3.41m

Santikos is pointing to a small drop from true Friday, which would be disappointing. We'll see how it looks tomorrow.

Sorry but i don't buy these numbers.

Even Eternals increased a 13% from true Friday with a B at Cinemascore.

XXRDJisDoctorDoom · October 21, 2022

4 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Sorry but i don't buy these numbers.

Even Eternals increased a 13% from true Friday with a B at Cinemascore.

You don’t….buy them? What does that even mean?

Katniss is just reporting the data they track.

keysersoze123 · October 21, 2022

it is just a sample data from one location. BA main strength is many large markets looking at MTC1/2 ratio. I would ignore saturday projections for now. Let us wait for friday numbers and postrak data.

David W · October 21, 2022

How is One Piece Film Red tracking?

Edited October 21, 2022 by David W

Eric Prime · October 21, 2022

Quorum Updates

Tar T-7: 12.54% Awareness, 4.20 Interest

The Menu T-28: 19.25%, 5.05

She Said T-28: 13.69%, 4.51

House Party T-84: 22.52%, 5.27

Creed III T-133: 37.06%, 5.69

The Little Mermaid T-217: 57.97%, 6.11

Black Adam T-1: 59.19% Awareness, 6.34 Interest

Comps (All Final): Shang-Chi w/ 43.04% Awareness & 5.56 Interest, Venom 2 w/ 54.39% & 5.78, Eternals w/ 41.7% & 5.89

Final General Awareness: 63% chance of over 50M, 53% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 100M

General Interest: 64% chance over 50M, 57% chance over 70M, 50% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 70M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

Ticket to Paradise T-1: 40.05% Awareness, 5.52 Interest

Comps (All Final): Respect w/ 40.28% Awareness & 5.53 Interest, The Lost City w/ 58.17% & 6.13, Elvis w/ 49.07% & 5.9, Amsterdam w/ 32.14% & 5.62

Final General Awareness: 95% chance of double-digit opening, 81% chance of 20M

General Interest: 86% chance of double-digit opening, 74% chance of 20M

Original - High Awareness: 80% chance over double-digits and 20M

Original - High Interest: 57% chance over double-digits and over 20M

Prey for the Devil T-7: 24.62% Awareness, 5.38 Interest

Comps (All Final): Don't Breathe 2 w/ 30.47% Awareness & 4.94 Interest, The Night House w/ 18.09% & 5.17, Candyman w/ 38.61% & 4.67, The Black Phone w/ 40% & 5.94

*Note that Prey for the Devil's Final numbers are subject to change*

Final General Awareness: 5% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 68% chance of double-digit opening

Horror Awareness: 12.5% chance of double-digit opening

Horror Interest: 60% chance of double-digit opening

Inceptionzq · October 21, 2022

On 10/20/2022 at 4:15 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 723 3301 21.90%
AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 475 2758 17.22%

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
3305 49 32294 10.23% 15 225

AMCs sold 2005
Cinemarks sold 616
Regals sold 308
Harkins sold 376

0.902x Thor L&T T-21 (26.15M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

749

3301

22.69%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

486

2758

17.62%

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3385	80	32294	10.48%	15	225

AMCs sold	2054
Cinemarks sold	634
Regals sold	318
Harkins sold	379

0.885x Thor L&T T-20 (25.68M)

0.522x Doctor Strange 2 T-20 (18.80M)

Inceptionzq · October 21, 2022

On 10/20/2022 at 4:19 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex

T-21 Thursday(99 showings): 2166(+39)/29419

0.663x Thor L&T T-21 (19.23M)

T-22 Friday(160 showings): 1197(+51)/45165

0.745x Thor L&T T-22 (30.22M)

T-23 Saturday(163 showings): 706(+28)/47913

0.913x Thor L&T T-23 (38.45M)

T-24 Sunday(140 showings): 146(+2)/42321

0.689x Thor L&T T-24 (22.38M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex

T-20 Thursday(99 showings): 2222(+56)/29419

0.650x Thor L&T T-20 (18.84M)

0.324x Doctor Strange MoM T-20 (11.65M)

T-21 Friday(160 showings): 1234(+37)/45165

0.717x Thor L&T T-21 (29.07M)

0.360x Doctor Strange MoM T-21 (19.72M)

T-22 Saturday(163 showings): 734(+28)/47913

0.886x Thor L&T T-22 (37.31M)

0.396x Doctor Strange MoM T-22 (22.89M)

T-23 Sunday(140 showings): 155(+9)/42321

0.608x Thor L&T T-23 (19.75M)

0.348x Doctor Strange MoM T-23 (13.52M)

Inceptionzq · October 21, 2022

On 10/20/2022 at 4:22 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse

T-21 Thursday(219 showings): 11122(+190)/30510 ATP: $16.10

1.19x Thor L&T T-21 (34.48M)

T-22 Friday(327 showings): 11373(+270)/46457 ATP: $15.73

1.67x Thor L&T T-22 (67.87M)

T-23 Saturday(330 showings): 9656(+294)/47364 ATP: $15.39

1.60x Thor L&T T-23 (67.44M)

T-24 Sunday(319 showings): 5116(+147)/45087 ATP: $15.47

1.79x Thor L&T T-24 (58.06M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse

T-20 Thursday(219 showings): 11339(+217)/30510 ATP: $16.10

1.15x Thor L&T T-20 (33.23M)

0.773x Doctor Strange MoM T-20 (27.84M)

T-21 Friday(327 showings): 11723(+350)/46457 ATP: $15.75

1.61x Thor L&T T-21 (65.11M)

0.979x Doctor Strange MoM T-21 (53.57M)

T-22 Saturday(330 showings): 9962(+306)/47364 ATP: $15.40

1.51x Thor L&T T-22 (63.60M)

0.819x Doctor Strange MoM T-22 (47.32M)

T-23 Sunday(319 showings): 5316(+200)/45087 ATP: $15.44

1.66x Thor L&T T-23 (53.86M)

0.975x Doctor Strange MoM T-23 (37.93M)

keysersoze123 · October 21, 2022

Wakanda forever MTC2 previews - 75787/591395 1110898.70 4296 shows

It sold 4484 tickets in 3 days. Thor at equivalent day(but in the morning) was about 6% higher. But it was in its initial week of presales and at much greater pace. it sold another 10599 tickets in 4 days. Black panther would sell probably half that number. Let us wait for social media reactions to see if its able to pace above thor.

On 6/18/2022 at 8:40 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Thor: Love and Thunder MTC2(T-20) Previews - 79348/519476 1136025.73 3263 shows

I dont have any full equivalent comps with DS2. Around April 20/21 time DS2 finished with

167358/751935 2273489.63 5389 shows. Key thing to note is DS2 already had much bigger release than what Thor is having. Let us how things go. To me just looking at what MTC1 is saying its still around mid 20s previews. Let us see how things go.

ZackM · October 22, 2022

On 10/20/2022 at 11:06 PM, ZackM said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days

Last Day 2 Days Ago Previous 2 Days
Showings Added 9 17 5
Seats Added 1,530 1,536 1,067
Seats Sold 2,470 2,587 5,224

10/20/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 439 7,301 162,243 1,142,227 14.20%

% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 14 69 239 424

ATP
$17.26

Black Panther Double Feature
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days

10/20/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 92 93 6,073 22,048 27.54%

% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 1 5 9 20

ATP
$17.59

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days


	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	Previous 2 Days
Showings Added	18	9	17	5
Seats Added	1,658	1,530	1,536	1,067
Seats Sold	3,380	2,470	2,587	5,224

10/21/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,319	165,623	1,143,885	14.48%

% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	17	75	253	444

ATP
$17.24


Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days


10/21/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	93	6,199	22,048	28.12%

% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	1	6	10	24

ATP
$17.60

Edited October 22, 2022 by ZackM

Porthos · October 22, 2022

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-21 days and counting

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

1

294

30924

37022

6098

16.47%

Total Seats Sold Today

150

T-21 Comp

%

Sold
T-21

Total

Sold

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

Final

Sold

% of

Final

Comp

MoM

66.76

187

9134

0/329

31774/40908

22.33%

21117

28.88%

24.03m

L&T

115.25

231

5291

0/228

26309/31600

16.74%

16962

35.95%

33.42m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal: 1409/11833 [11.91% sold]
Matinee: 284/4102 [6.92% | 4.66% of all tickets sold]

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-20 days and counting

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	294	30810	37022	6212	16.78%

Total Seats Sold Today

114

T-20 Comp

%

Sold
T-20

Total

Sold

Sellouts

Shows

Seats Left

Total Seats

Perct

Sold

Final

Sold

% of

Final

Comp

MoM

67.04

132

9266

0/329

31642/40908

22.65%

21117

29.42%

24.13m

L&T

112.43

234

5525

0/228

26075/31600

17.48%

16962

36.62%

32.61m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal: 1450/11833 [12.25% sold]
Matinee: 296/4102 [7.22% | 4.76% of all tickets sold]

katnisscinnaplex · October 22, 2022

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

By format

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Black Adam (Sat) PLF 43 1,836 1,836 10,170 18.05% $13.77 $25,290.45
Standard 89 1,051 1,051 11,478 9.16% $9.80 $10,294.94
Total 132 2,887 2,887 21,648 13.34% $12.33 $35,585.39
T-1 Paradise (Sat) PLF 4 29 29 512 5.66% $13.35 $387.05
Standard 55 246 246 5,825 4.22% $10.34 $2,542.57
Total 59 275 275 6,337 4.34% $10.65 $2,929.62

By matinee

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Black Adam (Sat) N 85 1,588 1,588 14,256 11.14% $13.76 $21,853.64
Y 47 1,299 1,299 7,392 17.57% $10.57 $13,731.75
Total 132 2,887 2,887 21,648 13.34% $12.33 $35,585.39
T-1 Paradise (Sat) N 31 105 105 3,639 2.89% $12.35 $1,296.83
Y 28 170 170 2,698 6.30% $9.60 $1,632.79
Total 59 275 275 6,337 4.34% $10.65 $2,929.62

Black Adam Sat T-1 comps

- Batman - .354x (15.31m)

- Thor 4 - .381x (16.03m)

- DS2 - missed

Adjusted comps

- Batman - 16.25m

- Thor 4 - 18.11m

Maybe around 16.5m Saturday?

Paradise Sat T-1 comps

- Crawdads - .619x (3.316m)

- Easter Sunday - 3.27x (5.91m)

- Bullet Train - .521x (5.04m)

Adjusted comps

- Crawdads - 4.18m

- Easter Sunday - 3.83m

- Bullet Train - 3.41m

Santikos is pointing to a small drop from true Friday, which would be disappointing. We'll see how it looks tomorrow.

Santikos Tracking

By format

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Adam (Sat)	PLF	43	801	2,637	10,170	25.93%	$13.83	$36,464.44
		Standard	89	770	1,821	11,478	15.87%	$9.73	$17,713.90
	Total		132	1,571	4,458	21,648	20.59%	$12.15	$54,178.34
	Paradise (Sat)	PLF	4	46	75	512	14.65%	$13.75	$1,031.25
		Standard	55	324	570	5,825	9.79%	$10.39	$5,921.98
	Total		59	370	645	6,337	10.18%	$10.78	$6,953.23
T-1	Black Adam (Sun)	PLF	41	907	907	9,846	9.21%	$13.27	$12,035.56
		Standard	88	588	588	11,279	5.21%	$9.89	$5,815.68
	Total		129	1,495	1,495	21,125	7.08%	$11.94	$17,851.24
	Paradise (Sun)	PLF	4	14	14	512	2.73%	$12.45	$174.30
		Standard	54	167	167	5,592	2.99%	$9.66	$1,613.84
	Total		58	181	181	6,104	2.97%	$9.88	$1,788.14

By matinee

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Adam (Sat)	N	85	886	2,474	14,256	17.35%	$13.64	$33,751.35
		Y	47	685	1,984	7,392	26.84%	$10.30	$20,426.99
	Total		132	1,571	4,458	21,648	20.59%	$12.15	$54,178.34
	Paradise (Sat)	N	31	141	246	3,639	6.76%	$12.79	$3,145.63
		Y	28	229	399	2,698	14.79%	$9.54	$3,807.60
	Total		59	370	645	6,337	10.18%	$10.78	$6,953.23
T-1	Black Adam (Sun)	N	82	621	621	13,733	4.52%	$13.66	$8,482.67
		Y	47	874	874	7,392	11.82%	$10.72	$9,368.57
	Total		129	1,495	1,495	21,125	7.08%	$11.94	$17,851.24
	Paradise (Sun)	N	30	22	22	3,406	0.65%	$12.92	$284.16
		Y	28	159	159	2,698	5.89%	$9.46	$1,503.98
	Total		58	181	181	6,104	2.97%	$9.88	$1,788.14

Paradise Sat T-0 comps

- Crawdads - .792x (4.24m)

- Easter Sunday - 3.225x (5.83m)

- Bullet Train - .64x (6.2m)

Adjusted comps (using 5.5m true Fri)

- Crawdads - 5.36m

- Easter Sunday - 7.91m

- Bullet Train - 5.7m

- Elvis - 5.63m

Should see an increase from Friday, but even with adjustments factored in it looks pretty flat. Maybe around 5.7m Sat?

Black Adam Sat T-0 comps

- Batman - .39x (16.86m)

- Thor 4 - .388x (16.35m)

- DS2 - .249x (14.42m)

- NWH - .21x (15.54m)

Adjusted comps (using 18.75 true Fri)

- Batman - 23.11m

- Thor 4 - 22.08m

- DS2 - 20.5m

- NWH - 22.9m

- JW3 - 23.6m

- TG2 - 23.8m

Looks like around 23m Saturday.

Black Adam Sun T-1 comps

- Batman - .277x (9.47m)

- Thor 4 - .269x (8.74m)

- DS2 - missed

Adjusted comps (using Fri and Sat projections)

- Batman - 12.95m

- Thor 4 - 12.05m

- NWH - 12.9m

For now I'll go with around 12.75m for Sunday

Paradise Sun T-1 comps

- Crawdads - .555x (2.57m)

- Easter Sunday - 3.29x (5.29m)

- Bullet Train - .525x (3.94m)

Adjusted comps (using Fri and Sat projections)

- Crawdads - 3.36m

- Easter Sunday - 6.18m

- Bullet Train - 3.62m

Comps are very split on this one, with family movies coming in around ES comp and everything else in the 3m range. For now I'll say 3.5m and hope things are clearer tomorrow

charlie Jatinder · October 22, 2022

43 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Adjusted comps (using 18.75 true Fri)

19.4

AMCs sold	2005
Cinemarks sold	616
Regals sold	308
Harkins sold	376

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