The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[jedijake]

20 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Look at the percentage of black people in each city. 

Ummmmm.......seriously? Is that what those numbers are really about?

Edited October 28, 2022 by jedijake

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Ummmmm.......seriously? Is that what those numbers are really about?

It's not the whole story, but it makes a pretty big difference. Denver is disproportionately white, Philly is disproportionately black. Sacramento is pretty diverse but the black percentage is about average -- WF just seems to be performing pretty well there for some reason.  

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Ummmmm.......seriously? Is that what those numbers are really about?

 

Philadelphia:

Quote

hideCensus racial composition	2020[117]	2010[119]	2000	1990[120]	1980[120]	1970[120]
Black or African American (non-Hispanic)	39.3%	42.2%	42.6%	39.3%	37.5%	33.3%[e]
White (non-Hispanic)	36.3%	36.9%	42.5%	52.1%	57.1%	63.8[e]
Hispanic or Latino (of any race)	14.9%	12.3%	8.5%	5.6%	3.8%	2.4%[e]
Asian	8.3%	6.3%	4.5%	2.7%	1.1%	0.3%
Pacific Islanders	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
Native Americans	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
Two or more races	6.9%	2.8%	2.2%	n/a[121]	n/a	n/a

 

Sacramento:

Quote

hideRacial composition	2020[65]	2010[65]	1990[66]	1970[66]	1940[66]
White	46.3%	45.0%	60.1%	81.5%	94.2%
—Non-Hispanic	32.4%	34.5%	53.4%	71.4%[67]	n/a
African American	13.2%	14.6%	15.3%	10.7%	1.4%
Hispanic or Latino (of any race)	28.9%	26.9%	16.2%	11.0%[67]	n/a
Asian	18.9%	18.3%	15.0%	6.5%	4.3%

 

Denver:

Quote

hideRacial composition	2020[90]	2010[91]	1990[39]	1970[39]	1940[39]
White (Non-Hispanic)	54.9%	52.2%	61.4%	74.5%	97.3%
Hispanic or Latino	29.3%	31.8%	23.0%	15.2%	n/a
Black	9.8%	9.7%	12.8%	9.1%	2.4%
Mixed	3.3%	2.1%
Asian	4.1%	3.3%	2.4%	1.4%	0.2%

NOTE: City demos only — does not include the surrounding areas.  That is important, but this will do in a pinch.

 

=======

 

Unlike others quipping here, I don't think it's the entire explanation.  For one, I'd like to see, say, Portland or Seattle data (we used to have a Seattle tracker, but they've been long gone). For two, the differences in Sacramento and Denver in the city only aren't that stark.  Certainly not enough to suggest a major difference between our two markets.  Philly is another story entirely.

 

But it's not nothing, either.

 

To give a deeper dive I'd need to know the demo breakdown of all of the surrounding areas (Like, I capture most of Sacramento County + parts of neighboring counties).

 

And even then, easy scapegoats notwithstanding... sometimes films underperform more that they "should" and we should remember that as an explanation, even with an easy answer sitting in the corner.

 

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Philadelphia:

 

Sacramento:

 

Denver:

NOTE: City demos only — does not include the surrounding areas.  That is important, but this will do in a pinch.

 

 

A somewhat important (and hopefully) not thread derailing addendum.

 

Discussions about census reports on Whites, Hispanics, and Whites (non-Hispanic) and the self-identification of said categories are... complicated and probably waaaaaay outside the normal remit of this thread. 

 

But with something like BP2 it is probably somewhat on topic, so it should be noted that of the three cities, Wikipedia also has listed Denver as:

 

Quote

According to the 2020 United States census, the racial composition of Denver was as follows:

• White: 80.9 (Non-Hispanic Whites: 54.9%)
• Hispanic or Latino (of any race): 29.3%; Mexican Americans made up 24.9% of the city's population.
• Black or African American: 9.8%
• Asian: 4.1% (0.8% Vietnamese, 0.6% Chinese, 0.5% Indian, 0.3% Korean, 0.3% Japanese, 0.3% Filipino, 0.2% Burmese, 0.1% Cambodian)
• Native American: 1.7%
• Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander: 0.2%
• Two or more races: 3.3%

 

Problem is, they don't have the same breakdown for Whites for Sacto and Philly on their main pages, just the charts I mentioned.

 

If I cared enough, I could scour Wikipedia to find it, say by checking the demographic pages themselves.  But when folks say that Denver is lily white, and cite the 81% number, that's right... But also not quite given the self-identification involved.  And this isn't even touching differences in Hispanics from one region of the country to another.

 

All of this is to say: It's complicated. 

 

Anything else is probably best left to Inceptionzq to comment on.

Edited October 28, 2022 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

Look at the percentage of black people in each city. 

if you look at Denver BO, its dominated by MTC1 and then MTC2 and some MTC3. Its overall number is not that far off when you look at overall ratios of MTC1/2. Its slightly under indexing but not at a spectacular way like say Megaplex. 

[ZackM]

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	15	5	4	4	1
Seats Added	1,123	384	903	559	54
Seats Sold	5,892	3,296	3,362	2,670	2,539
10/27/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,354	185,107	1,148,912	16.11%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	19	111	293	542
ATP
$17.11
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days
10/27/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	96	6,765	22,291	30.35%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	6	13	24
ATP
$17.58

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12
T-13
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

[keysersoze123]

its a good increase and it did beat Thor as expected. That said thor sold 7,431 on T-13 and I dont see BP beating that. So we have to see how the pace goes relative to thor after the initial burst from reactions are done. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Feeling 30M+ previews for BP2 from these sales 

[keysersoze123]

13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wakanda Forever MTC2 Previews(T - 15) - 85103/593417 1245505.33 4301 shows

 

Let us see how the reactions help with presales. 

 

Wakanda Forever MTC2 Previews(T-14) - 87755/594213 1283925.20 4313 shows +2652

 

Its about 23 hours of data. Good increase from yesterday(that was around 1600 over 24 hours). Let us see how things go. Monday Morning Thor was at 104301. 

 

 

[XXR & Friends]

25 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Feeling 30M+ previews for BP2 from these sales 

I gave you the number. You know what it’ll be. So it is written.

[Inceptionzq]

 

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Anything else is probably best left to Inceptionzq to comment on.

Honestly I had more typed up, but I think you said it well below.

 

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

It's complicated. 

To keep it short, I'm not sure there's much evidence to back the racial/ethnicity differences being the main reason for Denver underperforming compared to Sacto. It just seems more like a general underperformance in Denver so far

[Eric S'ennui]

On 10/27/2022 at 12:40 AM, Ericstein's Monster said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	246	6655	42932	15.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 155

 

Comp

0.499x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-15 (24.94M)

1.396x of The Batman T-15 (30.16M)

0.701x of Doctor Strange 2 T-15 (25.23M)

1.284x of Thor 4 T-15 (37.23M)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	246	6962	42932	16.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 307

 

Comp

0.490x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-14 (24.51M)

1.431x of The Batman T-14 (30.9M)

0.724x of Doctor Strange 2 T-14 (26.08M)

1.299x of Thor 4 T-14 (37.67M)

[Eric S'ennui]

I also did some searching on Fandango, and Puss in Boots 2's doing the same Early Access thing Sing 2 did last year. Thanksgiving weekend Saturday and all. Good for them!

 

https://www.fandango.com/puss-in-boots-the-last-wish-early-screening-2022-229744/movie-overview?date=2022-11-26

[Porthos]

On 10/27/2022 at 12:57 AM, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	294	30194	37024	6830	18.45%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	126

 

T-15 Comp

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	66.90		182	10209		0/351	32227/42436	24.06%		21117	32.34%		24.08m
L&T	107.49		150	6354		0/228	25246/31600	20.11%		16962	40.27%		31.17m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1646/11835  [13.91% sold]
Matinee:    326/4103  [7.95% | 4.77% of all tickets sold]

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	294	29934	37024	7060	19.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

230

 

T-14 Comp

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	67.89		190	10399		0/351	32037/42436	24.51%		21117	33.43%		24.44m
L&T	107.80		195	6549		0/228	25051/31600	20.72%		16962	41.62%		31.26m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1694/11835  [14.31% sold]
Matinee:    333/4103  [8.12% | 4.70% of all tickets sold]

Edited October 29, 2022 by Porthos

[krla]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

A somewhat important (and hopefully) not thread derailing addendum.

 

Discussions about census reports on Whites, Hispanics, and Whites (non-Hispanic) and the self-identification of said categories are... complicated and probably waaaaaay outside the normal remit of this thread. 

 

But with something like BP2 it is probably somewhat on topic, so it should be noted that of the three cities, Wikipedia also has listed Denver as:

 

 

Problem is, they don't have the same breakdown for Whites for Sacto and Philly on their main pages, just the charts I mentioned.

 

If I cared enough, I could scour Wikipedia to find it, say by checking the demographic pages themselves.  But when folks say that Denver is lily white, and cite the 81% number, that's right... But also not quite given the self-identification involved.  And this isn't even touching differences in Hispanics from one region of the country to another.

 

All of this is to say: It's complicated. 

 

Anything else is probably best left to Inceptionzq to comment on.

Youth demos play a big role for comic book movies. Denver youth are roughly 25% white, 13% black, 52% Hispanic, 3% Asian. Sacramento youth are roughly 17% white, 13% black, 40% Hispanic, 20% Asian.

 

If you ever look at demo breakdowns for various movies, you'll almost always see Asians are overrepresented. Though I can't find any breakdown for Black Panther that includes Asians. But this could be an explanation for the difference between Denver and Sacramento. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 10/21/2022 at 8:24 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Black Adam	3,499	138,408		122,890		15,518	5,181	0
Ticket to Paradise	3,078	60,712		60,628		84	0	0
Halloween Ends	3,159	52,760	-51.31%	52,375	323.35	385	0	0
Smile	2,748	33,591	-18.27%	33,547	305.70	44	0	0
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	2,745	33,421	-22.04%	33,403	171.52	18	0	0
The Woman King	1,483	14,586	-32.71%	14,575	170.90	11	0	0
Amsterdam	1,416	10,539	-62.34%	10,523	98.72	16	0	0
Don't Worry Darling	953	6,941	-67.82%	6,919	103.78	22	0	0
Paul's Promise	373	5,074		5,074		0	0	0
Terrifier 2	698	4,592	10.28%	4,592	247.36	0	0	0
My Policeman	345	4,288		4,288		0	0	0
Top Gun: Maverick	622	4,178	-27.35%	4,178	119.61	0	0	0
Barbarian	598	4,096	-72.29%	4,096	92.87	0	0	0
Minions 2	398	2,329	-66.08%	2,302	63.54	27	0	10
Bros	515	2,286	-79.98%	2,286	81.80	0	0	0
Super-Pets	258	1,679	-61.38%	1,672	87.29	7	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 10/21 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Ticket to Paradise (EA) - 100 (98 TC)

Ticket to Paradise - 60,712 (3,078 TC)

 - Bob's Burgers Movie - 58,184 (3,004)

 - Moonfall - 64,611 (3,241)

 - Death on the Nile - 56,756 (2,935)

(Not loving any of the similar show count movies as comps. Mostly horror and kids movies)

Black Adam - 138,408 (3,499 TC)

 - Morbius - 134,155 (3,418)

 - Venom - 137,474 (3,273)

 - Shang-Chi - 133,770 (3,523)

Paul's Promise - 5,074 (373 TC)

 - Blue Bayou - 5,439 (444)

 - Rescue of Little Eggs - 4,547 (304)

My Policeman - 4,288 (345 TC)

 - Becoming Custeau - 3,927 (310)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Prey for the Devil - 23,020 (1,732 TC)

 - Northman - 22,383 (1,935)

 - Firestarter - 25,486 (1,830)

 - Invitation - 21,624 (1,619)

Till - 10,366 (967 TC)

 - King's Daughter - 10,270 (815)

 - Mr. Malcolm's List - 10,621 (813)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

One Piece Red - 5,095 (1,867 TC)

 - Crawdads - 5,157 (1,803)

 - Black Phone - 4,684 (1,873)

 

T-3 Weeks Preview Showtimes Comps

Black Panther DF - 102 (101 TC)

Black Panther 2 - 28,981 (2,733 TC) (7,986)

 - DS2 - 30,203 (2,704) (7,303 PLF)

 - Thor 4 - 23,551 (2,550) (6,672 PLF)

 

Similar show count to DS2, but already more PLF shows for preview night.  Full weekend shows pushed over 150k for my sample theaters with 41,522 of those being PLF shows.

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Black Adam	3,415	83,738	-28.24%	72,670	484.11	11,068	3,900	0
Prey for the Devil	2,659	45,409		44,058		1,351	0	0
Ticket to Paradise	3,045	44,186	-16.80%	44,117	271.92	69	0	0
Halloween Ends	2,743	31,600	-40.11%	31,550	151.64	50	0	0
Smile	2,680	30,957	-7.84%	30,912	252.22	45	0	0
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	2,447	24,152	-27.73%	24,129	127.20	23	0	0
Till	1,925	22,459	116.66%	22,448		11	0	0
Call Jane	972	12,049		12,037		12	0	0
Terrifier 2	1,420	11,176	143.38%	11,169	382.40	7	0	0
TÁR	1,005	10,074		10,054		20	0	0
The Woman King	1,176	7,907	-45.79%	7,907	128.71	0	0	0
The Bad Guys	1,260	7,312		7,305		7	0	7
Triangle of Sadness	512	4,692		4,685		7	0	0
Don't Worry Darling	374	2,306	-66.78%	2,295	125.02	11	0	0
Amsterdam	375	2,155	-79.55%	2,144	78.25	11	0	0
Coldplay	795	1,593		1,593		0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 10/28 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Prey for the Devil - 45,409 (2,659 TC)

 - Escape Room 2 - 45,204 (2,482)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 43,638 (2,644)

 - Firestarter - 48,840 (2,998)

 - Invitation - 43,127 (2,655)

Till - 22,459 (1,925 TC) (Not incl previews since I couldn't parse them out for expansion)

 - American Underdog - 24,667 (2,610)

 - Mack & Rita - 24,728 (1,686)

Call Jane - 12,049 (972 TC) 

 - Spencer - 11,579 (840)

 - Wolf and the Lion - 12,069 (938)

 - Umma - 11,404 (739)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

One Piece Red - 34,212 (2,003 TC)

 - Addams Family - 33,520 (2,461)

 - Jackass Forever - 32,919 (2,445)

 - Bad Guys - 33,122 (2,264)

 - JJK - 26,472 (2,001)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Black Panther DF - 103 (102 TC)

Black Panther 2 - 29,365 (2,794 TC) (8,038 PLF)

 - DS2 - 31,994 (2,883) (7,448 PLF)

 - Thor 4 - 24,565 (2,794) (6,755 PLF)

 - No Way Home - 29,365 (2,794) (4,775 PLF)

 

T-3 Weeks Preview Showtimes Comps

The Menu - 3,087 (1,316 TC)

 - Crawdads - 2,901 (971)

 - Father Stu - 3,017 (1,359)

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 10/28/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
11/4/2022	Armageddon Time (Wide Exp; 7 locations on Oct. 28)					800	Focus Features
11/4/2022	One Piece Film Red	$11,000,000 – $16,000,000		$19,250,000 – $32,000,000			Crunchyroll / Sony
11/11/2022	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever	$180,000,000 – $210,000,000		$445,000,000 – $555,000,000			Disney / Marvel Studios
11/11/2022	Spirited						Apple Original Films
11/18/2022	The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 & 2						Fathom Events
11/18/2022	The Menu	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000		$25,000,000 – $50,000,000			Disney / Searchlight Pictures
11/18/2022	She Said	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000		$14,000,000 – $34,000,000			Universal Pictures
11/23/2022	Bones and All (Limited on Nov. 18)						United Artists Releasing
11/23/2022	Devotion	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000		$17,000,000 – $42,000,000			Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/23/2022	The Fabelmans (Wide Expansion; LA/NY Nov. 11)	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000		$35,000,000 – $65,000,000			Universal Pictures
11/23/2022	Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery	$6,000,000 – $12,000,000		$12,000,000 – $25,000,000 (7-Day Engagement)		600	Netflix
11/23/2022	Strange World	$20,000,000 – $30,000,000		$68,000,000 – $103,000,000			Walt Disney Pictures

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Devotion, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Strange World - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[Legion Again]

Is Glass Onion even going to be reported?

[filmlover]

7 hours ago, Ericstein's Monster said:

I also did some searching on Fandango, and Puss in Boots 2's doing the same Early Access thing Sing 2 did last year. Thanksgiving weekend Saturday and all. Good for them!

 

https://www.fandango.com/puss-in-boots-the-last-wish-early-screening-2022-229744/movie-overview?date=2022-11-26

I expect all the Christmas releases will be doing buzz-building screenings like they did last year knowing that they'll have to make do with whatever auditorium space they get with an 800 pound gorilla (Spider-Man/Avatar) gobbling up the screen space and attention (especially since Avatar is almost certainly contracted for the bigger theaters all day every day for the entire extended holiday with how long it reportedly is).

 

Nothing surprising about BOP's Thanksgiving weekend projections. Except that they're predicting Glass Onion knowing that we won't be getting any concrete numbers for it.

Edited October 28, 2022 by filmlover

[filmlover]

She Said and The Fabelmans (for the Thanksgiving weekend wide release) showtimes are starting to appear but aren't on sale yet.