The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, Ericstein's Monster said:

 

@Porthos @Inceptionzq @keysersoze123 @Tinalera @katnisscinnaplex @charlie Jatinder @Menor Reborn @el sid @GOGODanca Good luck team!

 

 

 

 

 

 

......I have a headache now.......sigh......this is gonna hurt isnt it? Don't suppose we can all just agree it will probably make over a 1 billion its opening weekend and call it a day?

 

No huh?

 

Edited October 29, 2022 by Tinalera

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

Disney's strategy here continues to be ... curious.  It does kinda feel like they're just letting JC call the shots, pushing all in on Avatar2 ushering in a return to 3D glory, despite the running time and price point. Maybe he/they are right, but if not, I'm wondering at what point do we start to see course correction (aka panic). Don't think they'll be a huge fan rush for tickets, especially so far from release, and certainly not on previous NWH/Star Wars December release levels

In fairness, the original Avatar was the movie that ushered in that short-lived 3D wave between 2010/2011 where every movie was converted to the format in post. It often sold out showtimes (especially IMAX ones) days, if not weeks, in advance in the format. Considering that movie came out 13 years ago (a lifetime in Hollywood years these days), they're likely hoping for the same WOM hype that the original created when it came out, even with this being a sequel (and therefore naturally going to be more frontloaded).

[Tinalera]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

In fairness, the original Avatar was the movie that ushered in that short-lived 3D wave between 2010/2011 where every movie was converted to the format in post. It often sold out showtimes (especially IMAX ones) days, if not weeks, in advance in the format. Considering that movie came out 13 years ago (a lifetime in Hollywood years these days), they're likely hoping for the same WOM hype that the original created when it came out, even with this being a sequel (and therefore naturally going to be more frontloaded).

For me its going to be not so much this movie, but part 3 in 2 years down the road-this one will do boffo box office Im pretty sure, but with next movie coming out in 2 years, alot will be based on the current filmgoers after watching 2. 

 

[XXR & Friends]

53 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

 

 

 

 

 

......I have a headache now.......sigh......this is gonna hurt isnt it? Don't suppose we can all just agree it will probably make over a 1 billion its opening weekend and call it a day?

 

No huh?

 

 

Domestically, I'm still in the $140-170M camp. Worldwide (assuming no China at release) I'm thinking $500-550M. If it gets an OW release in China, add another $300-400M. 

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

In other movie news, the iPic chain website has posted that tickets for Bones and All and Devotion will both be going on sale on the 11th.

 

IPIC Theaters - The Ultimate Theater Experience

Also worth mentioning that some of their locations (2 in Florida, Maryland, New Jersey) have Bones and All listed for opening on November 18 ahead of its promoted wide release on the 23rd so looks like it's gonna be receiving a decent-sized theater count for that limited opening weekend.

[Tinalera]

6 minutes ago, XXXVIIR said:

 

Domestically, I'm still in the $140-170M camp. Worldwide (assuming no China at release) I'm thinking $500-550M. If it gets an OW release in China, add another $300-400M. 

I completely forgot that China situation has changed a fair bit since the first one-thank you for catching that. Indeed if there's no China OW, then yea that ticks a few hundred million off.

[misterpepp]

Just as exciting as Avatar, hearing a tentative sale date of Nov 11 for Bones and All and Devotion.

 

EDIT: Filmlover beat me to it!

Edited October 29, 2022 by datpepper

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Just as exciting as Avatar, hearing a tentative sale date of Nov 11 for Bones and All and Devotion.

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

In other movie news, the iPic chain website has posted that tickets for Bones and All and Devotion will both be going on sale on the 11th.

 

IPIC Theaters - The Ultimate Theater Experience

IPIC beat you to it, hehe (they also have The Fabelmans listed for going on sale on the 16th - guessing for the wide release - and She Said going on sale this Wednesday).

[misterpepp]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

IPIC beat you to it, hehe (they also have The Fabelmans listed for going on sale on the 16th - guessing for the wide release - and She Said going on sale this Wednesday).

I just noticed after I posted! Serves me right for posting so quickly.

 

I was initially told Nov 3 for She Said, but it does look like it could be Nov 2 instead.

Edited October 29, 2022 by datpepper

[Eric Onion]

10 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Just as exciting as Avatar, hearing a tentative sale date of Nov 11 for Bones and All and Devotion.

 

EDIT: Filmlover beat me to it!

You're still the MVP in our hearts

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Seems like only 3D sales will start initially. I suppose 2D will come around near release. So if you want advance sales, change to 3D which I am told is not really an option for smaller cinemas. Most 3D screens are in bigger plexes, so can over index in those.

 

Not even a 3:1 split, eh? Well that certainly is a choice!

[filmlover]

Looking at the November/December schedule this year reminds me why the holidays are always so fun: extra time off to see movies in theaters!

 

The holidays may not be as packed with movies (Christmas weekend usually had like 7-8 movies opening on them) as they were pre-pandemic but there's a lot out this season worth putting the streaming services aside in favor of the big screen experience.

Edited October 29, 2022 by filmlover

[misterpepp]

Going to make a much safer assumption that nobody’s mentioned Jesus Revolution (Lionsgate faith-based movie from the team behind I Can Only Imagine and I Still Believe) early access goes on sale Nov 1. No idea if general ticket sales start on the same date or not.

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, M37 said:

 

Disney's strategy here continues to be ... curious.  It does kinda feel like they're just letting JC call the shots, pushing all in on Avatar2 ushering in a return to 3D glory, despite the running time and price point. Maybe he/they are right, but if not, I'm wondering at what point do we start to see course correction (aka panic). Don't think they'll be a huge fan rush for tickets, especially so far from release, and certainly not on previous NWH/Star Wars December release levels

I expect 3D tix to sell like hot cakes. Audience will overwhelmingly pick 3D ane 2D will start near release.

 

[ZackM]

23 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	22	15	5	4	4
Seats Added	1,872	1,123	384	903	559
Seats Sold	5,612	5,892	3,296	3,362	2,670
10/28/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,376	190,719	1,150,784	16.57%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	18	118	309	584
ATP
$17.07
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days
10/28/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	96	6,919	22,291	31.04%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	8	14	24
ATP
$17.58

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	4	22	15	5	4
Seats Added	1,060	1,872	1,123	384	903
Seats Sold	4,188	5,612	5,892	3,296	3,362
10/29/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,380	194,907	1,151,844	16.92%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	19	120	328	606
ATP
$17.05
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days
10/29/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	96	7,043	22,291	31.60%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	8	15	26
ATP
$17.59

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12	$26.6	$26.5	$22.2	$22.7
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

[Eric Onion]

14 hours ago, Ericstein's Monster said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	246	7255	42932	16.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 293

 

Comp

0.491x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-13 (24.53M)

1.459x of The Batman T-13 (31.51M)

0.744x of Doctor Strange 2 T-13 (26.78M)

1.298x of Thor 4 T-13 (37.65M)

 

I can't believe Rihanna herself made 293 people buy tickets just on her song alone. No other reason whatsoever this film sold 293 tickets. Her power is surely unmathced!

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	249	7380	44115	16.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 125

 

Comp

0.483x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-12 (24.13M)

1.448x of The Batman T-12 (31.28M)

0.746x of Doctor Strange 2 T-12 (26.85M)

1.274x of Thor 4 T-12 (36.96M)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	296	29904	37154	7250	19.51%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	130
Total Seats Sold Today	190

 

T-13 Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.30		216	10615		0/351	31821/42436	25.01%		21117	34.33%		24.59m
L&T	106.40		265	6814		0/228	24786/31600	21.56%		16962	42.74%		30.86m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1739/11835  [14.69% sold]
Matinee:    347/4103  [8.46% | 4.79% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

NOTE:  Yesterday's seats sold was overcounted by 30 seats due to a sheet error. The actual amount of seats sold yesterday was 230 instead of 260.  That post (as well as the quote of it here) has been edited to reflect the revised number.

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	296	29738	37154	7416	19.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

166

T-12 Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.44		221	10836		0/351	31600/42436	25.53%		21117	35.12%		24.64m
L&T	106.22		168	6982		0/228	24618/31600	22.09%		16962	43.72%		30.80m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1782/11835  [15.06% sold]
Matinee:    355/4103  [8.65% | 4.79% of all tickets sold]

[charlie Jatinder]

Glass Onion is on sale. Good sales in Harkins, some of you may want to check.

 

Harkins T-24 days - 265/14253 (79 showings)

[Nikostar]

Did BP see a reaction boost?

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, Nikostar said:

Did BP see a reaction boost?

 

Nothing tangible. If anything, the Rihanna song boosted it more (although again nothing to write home about).