The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

8 hours ago, XXXVIIR said:

Veterans Day isn’t a relevant holiday to the general public. Most companies aren’t off work and it’s not a celebratory affair.

... But schools are off. In 2016, Deadline reported 50% of K-12 and 30% of colleges not in session for Friday Vet Day (and it may be higher by now). That's going to cause an effect on potential audience and box office at least as much a IPD in October, maybe even closer to MLK/Pres Day in Jan & Feb

[jedijake]

59 minutes ago, M37 said:

... But schools are off. In 2016, Deadline reported 50% of K-12 and 30% of colleges not in session for Friday Vet Day (and it may be higher by now). That's going to cause an effect on potential audience and box office at least as much a IPD in October, maybe even closer to MLK/Pres Day in Jan & Feb

Yeah, and even a small percentage of schools being out can actually yield bigger numbers than normal. It may be 15-20% higher than it would have been on a normal Friday.

 

Problem is, we don't have a collection of past Veterans Day blockbuster openings to compare. Good Friday is always on Friday (Mr. obvious I know), but Veterans Day is rarely a Friday. So what data do we actually have?

[charlie Jatinder]

53 minutes ago, M37 said:

... But schools are off. In 2016, Deadline reported 50% of K-12 and 30% of colleges not in session for Friday Vet Day (and it may be higher by now). That's going to cause an effect on potential audience and box office at least as much a IPD in October, maybe even closer to MLK/Pres Day in Jan & Feb

Way it help BO, I thought it was quite big holiday. 2011 and 2016 are the last time we had same calendar setting.

2016

Doctor Strange

THU was up 18% while normally it would dip a bit. FRI and SAT were not too far apart while in next weekend SAT jumped 65%.

 

Nov 10	Thursday	1	$5,993,999	+18.4%	-	3,882	$1,544	$109,982,169	7
Nov 11	Friday	1	$14,926,647	+149%	-54.2%	3,882	$3,845	$124,908,816	8
Nov 12	Saturday	1	$17,614,185	+18%	-43.8%	3,882	$4,537	$142,523,001	9
Nov 13	Sunday	1	$10,429,233	-40.8%	-50.6%	3,882	$2,686	$152,952,234	10

 

2nd FRI to 1st WED was 2.95x for Doctor Strange
3rd FRI to 2nd WED was 1.93x while 3rd SAT to 2nd WED was 3.19x

 

Trolls

Nov 10	Thursday	2	$2,821,047	+62.3%	-	4,060	$694	$58,964,315	7
Nov 11	Friday	2	$12,166,667	+331.3%	-1.7%	4,066	$2,992	$71,130,982	8
Nov 12	Saturday	2	$13,997,037	+15%	-30.6%	4,066	$3,442	$85,128,019	9
Nov 13	Sunday	2	$8,815,873	-37%	-37.3%	4,066	$2,168	$93,943,892	10

 

I am adding this after I put Puss in Boot, so read it after that. Seems like family titles will have huge holiday eve jump.

 

 

2011

Puss in Boots

A big 78% jump on THU and then 270% growth on FRI. SAT was basically flat though in prior and next weekend it was +93%, so I assume Veteran Day is as good as SAT.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1214940673/?ref_=bo_da_table_3

 

Nov 10	Thursday	1	$2,377,573	+78.7%	+20.8%	3,963	$599	$83,309,166	14
Nov 11	Friday	3	$8,866,762	+272.9%	+13.5%	3,903	$2,271	$92,175,928	15
Nov 12	Saturday	2	$9,759,093	+10.1%	-35.3%	3,903	$2,500	$101,935,021	16
Nov 13	Sunday	2	$6,100,338	-37.5%	-39.9%	3,903	$1,562	$108,035,359	17

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

On 10/30/2022 at 4:07 PM, Menor Reborn said:

??? It certainly did get a reaction bump on Thursday and Friday. Faded a bit over the weekend which is normal. This next set of weekdays will be more telling.

 

 

10 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

It's relevant to the box office (you can see an effect in past years). And WF sales are pretty Friday heavy so it's likely having an effect here as well.

 

1 hour ago, M37 said:

... But schools are off. In 2016, Deadline reported 50% of K-12 and 30% of colleges not in session for Friday Vet Day (and it may be higher by now). That's going to cause an effect on potential audience and box office at least as much a IPD in October, maybe even closer to MLK/Pres Day in Jan & Feb

 

I brought you both into this world and I’ll take you both out!

 

[charlie Jatinder]

20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Way it help BO, I thought it was quite big holiday. 2011 and 2016 are the last time we had same calendar setting.

2016

Doctor Strange

THU was up 18% while normally it would dip a bit. FRI and SAT were not too far apart while in next weekend SAT jumped 65%.

 

Nov 10	Thursday	1	$5,993,999	+18.4%	-	3,882	$1,544	$109,982,169	7
Nov 11	Friday	1	$14,926,647	+149%	-54.2%	3,882	$3,845	$124,908,816	8
Nov 12	Saturday	1	$17,614,185	+18%	-43.8%	3,882	$4,537	$142,523,001	9
Nov 13	Sunday	1	$10,429,233	-40.8%	-50.6%	3,882	$2,686	$152,952,234	10

 

2nd FRI to 1st WED was 2.95x for Doctor Strange
3rd FRI to 2nd WED was 1.93x while 3rd SAT to 2nd WED was 3.19x

 

Trolls

Nov 10	Thursday	2	$2,821,047	+62.3%	-	4,060	$694	$58,964,315	7
Nov 11	Friday	2	$12,166,667	+331.3%	-1.7%	4,066	$2,992	$71,130,982	8
Nov 12	Saturday	2	$13,997,037	+15%	-30.6%	4,066	$3,442	$85,128,019	9
Nov 13	Sunday	2	$8,815,873	-37%	-37.3%	4,066	$2,168	$93,943,892	10

 

I am adding this after I put Puss in Boot, so read it after that. Seems like family titles will have huge holiday eve jump.

 

 

2011

Puss in Boots

A big 78% jump on THU and then 270% growth on FRI. SAT was basically flat though in prior and next weekend it was +93%, so I assume Veteran Day is as good as SAT.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1214940673/?ref_=bo_da_table_3

 

Nov 10	Thursday	1	$2,377,573	+78.7%	+20.8%	3,963	$599	$83,309,166	14
Nov 11	Friday	3	$8,866,762	+272.9%	+13.5%	3,903	$2,271	$92,175,928	15
Nov 12	Saturday	2	$9,759,093	+10.1%	-35.3%	3,903	$2,500	$101,935,021	16
Nov 13	Sunday	2	$6,100,338	-37.5%	-39.9%	3,903	$1,562	$108,035,359	17

Though seems like Veteran's day isn't that strong on other days. 2019 it fell on MON, feels a bit better than MLK weekend.

[Eric Prime]

One Piece Film: Red Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	429	7679	5.59%

 

Comp

0.390x of Jujutsu Kaisen 0 T-3 (1.12M)

0.444x of Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero T-3 (1.91M)

[Eric Prime]

On 10/30/2022 at 10:27 PM, Ericstein's Monster said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	249	7505	44115	17.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 125

 

Comp

0.457x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-11 (22.83M)

1.431x of The Batman T-11 (30.92M)

0.746x of Doctor Strange 2 T-11 (26.87M)

1.261x of Thor 4 T-11 (36.58M)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	249	7689	44115	17.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 184

 

Comp

0.451x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-10 (22.57M)

1.430x of The Batman T-10 (30.9M)

0.748x of Doctor Strange 2 T-10 (26.94M)

1.253x of Thor 4 T-10 (36.34M)

[Porthos]

On 10/31/2022 at 12:03 AM, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	296	29538	37154	7616	20.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

200

 

T-11 Comp

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	69.08		189	11025		0/351	31411/42436	25.98%		21117	36.07%		24.87m
L&T	106.01		202	7184		0/228	24416/31600	22.73%		16962	44.90%		30.74m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1832/11835  [15.48% sold]
Matinee:    366/4103  [8.92% | 4.81% of all tickets sold]

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	295	29214	37031	7817	21.11%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	123
Total Seats Sold Today	201

 

T-10 Comp

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	69.24		265	11290		0/353	31386/42676	26.46%		21117	37.02%		24.93m
L&T	106.18		178	7362		0/228	24235/31597	23.30%		16962	46.09%		30.79m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1871/11712  [15.98% sold]
Matinee:    376/4103  [9.16% | 4.81% of all tickets sold]

[filmlover]

Fabelmans tickets are on sale now.

[ZackM]

23 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

From last night:

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	4	22	15	5
Seats Added	0	1,060	1,872	1,123	384
Seats Sold	4,381	4,188	5,612	5,892	3,296
10/30/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,380	199,288	1,151,844	17.30%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	22	127	337	624
ATP
$17.02
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days
10/30/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	96	7,159	22,291	32.12%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	8	15	26
ATP
$17.59

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11	$26.4	$26.3	$22.3	$22.7
T-12	$26.6	$26.5	$22.2	$22.7
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	65	0	4	22	15
Seats Added	5,573	0	1,060	1,872	1,123
Seats Sold	5,555	4,381	4,188	5,612	5,892
10/31/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,445	204,843	1,157,417	17.70%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	26	132	353	649
ATP
$16.98
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days
10/31/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	96	7,287	22,291	32.69%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	8	16	27
ATP
$17.58

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10	$26.4	$26.3	$22.5	$22.9
T-11	$26.4	$26.3	$22.3	$22.7
T-12	$26.6	$26.5	$22.2	$22.7
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

[Maggie]

Can anyone explain @ZackM numbers? We are expecting previews between 22-26M?

[jedijake]

7 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Can anyone explain @ZackM numbers? We are expecting previews between 22-26M?

Yeah I had the same questions.

 

Less than $25 million would be extremely disappointing. But if you look at Sacramento and Philadelphia comps, they look promising.

 

No clue how to read into that Alpha chain report and how that works.(what is weighted and unweighted).

[M37]

 

17 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Can anyone explain @ZackM numbers? We are expecting previews between 22-26M?

If BPWF were to follow the same sales trajectory over the last 10 days as Strange and Thor respectively, then the current sales from Alpha would extrapolate out to those values. But there are good reasons to expect it have a stronger finishing kick certainly than Strange, and close to (if not better than) Thor, and Alpha may represent a smaller share than those titles, so actual number may end up a bit higher than wherever these direct comparisons finish

 

Perhaps best to think of the average of these values as representing more the floor for Thursday previews (barring some really bad reviews), with a fair amount of potential upside to swing to high $20s (if not over $30M, as some expect).

Edited November 1, 2022 by M37

[ZackM]

22 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Yeah I had the same questions.

 

Less than $25 million would be extremely disappointing. But if you look at Sacramento and Philadelphia comps, they look promising.

 

No clue how to read into that Alpha chain report and how that works.(what is weighted and unweighted).

Unweighted is a strict comparison of ticket sales.  Weighted also factors in the average ticket price.

[keysersoze123]

51 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Can anyone explain @ZackM numbers? We are expecting previews between 22-26M?

I would ignore absolute number and look at trends. If its growing against Thor/DS2 its ok. Otherwise its a concern. That said there is still time. Thor had a mediocre final week except amazing last 2 days. That is when BP2 should catchup if it does at all. 

 

That said 30m looks unlikely. I am thinking 28m previews anticipating better than Thor final week except last 2 days when summer movies should have better walkups and folks deciding to watch movies over the weekend. Still should beat Thor OW for sure. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wakanda Forever MTC2 Previews - 95742/602776 1396165.08 4363 shows

 

Equivalent Thor data. I think MTC2 is slightly better than MTC1 when it comes to relative trend. 

 

 

Wakanda Forever MTC2 previews(T-10) - 98477/604469 1434368.55 4382 shows

 

 

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I would ignore absolute number and look at trends. If its growing against Thor/DS2 its ok. Otherwise its a concern. That said there is still time. Thor had a mediocre final week except amazing last 2 days. That is when BP2 should catchup if it does at all. 

 

That said 30m looks unlikely. I am thinking 28m previews anticipating better than Thor final week except last 2 days when summer movies should have better walkups and folks deciding to watch movies over the weekend. Still should beat Thor OW for sure. 

Thor L^T  did 29M previews for a 143M weekend. I expect WF to beat Thor OW, but by how much? I thought people were saying 200M OW was in play. Doesn't look like it from these numbers...

[keysersoze123]

48 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Yeah I had the same questions.

 

Less than $25 million would be extremely disappointing. But if you look at Sacramento and Philadelphia comps, they look promising.

 

No clue how to read into that Alpha chain report and how that works.(what is weighted and unweighted).

Phily was always expected to over perform big time. Let me quote charlie few months ago. Sacremento could be interesting. Let us see how things end up. Thor had very strong final push stronger than even DS2 or NWH. 

 

  

On 6/23/2022 at 8:39 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

No you should continue with comps. I just wanted to give a precaution. In time you will have enough movies to have good set of comps.

e.g. Philly isn't really representative of Nationwide number like Sacramento but @Eric Presley now has enough comps to give somewhat nationwide representative number. Be ready for $50M+ previews comps for Black Panther 2 in Philly later this year.

 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Thor L^T  did 29M previews for a 143M weekend. I expect WF to beat Thor OW, but by how much? I thought people were saying 200M OW was in play. Doesn't look like it from these numbers...

Friday being veterans day would mean way lower previews to OW. Also this is November when schools are all in. Thursday at 3PM is not optimal time unless you are a hardcore fan. its presales beyond just thursday is well ahead of thor but behind DS2 which had monster presales. I am thinking 28/170 for now. Let us see closer to release how things go. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 10/31/2022 at 10:15 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-10	Jax	6	128	193	2,256	18,561	12.15%
		Phx	6	125	112	1,732	18,513	9.36%
		Ral	8	123	289	2,859	14,945	19.13%
	Total		20	376	594	6,847	52,019	13.16%
BP2 DF	T-10	Jax	2	3	7	137	292	46.92%
	Total		2	3	7	137	292	46.92%
Glass Onion	T-23	Jax	4	16	55	55	1,847	2.98%
		Phx	2	8	54	54	736	7.34%
		Ral	2	11	95	95	896	10.60%
	Total		8	35	204	204	3,479	5.86%
One Piece	T-3	Jax	5	24	15	196	5,074	3.86%
		Phx	5	14	20	197	2,702	7.29%
		Ral	7	19	25	215	2,929	7.34%
	Total		17	57	60	608	10,705	5.68%

*New sales: One Piece (new since Sat), BP (new since Fri)*

 

One Piece T-3 comps

 - Dragon Ball - .54x (2.32m)

 - JJK - .503x (1.45m)

 - MHA - .563x (1.62m)

 

Black Panther T-10 comps

 - Black Widow - 2.94x (38.76m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.11x (32.21m)

 - DS2 - .64x (23.05m)

 - NWH - .361x (18.07m)

 - Batman - missed

 

I don't really have any good Glass Onion comps this far out, especially with it being OD sales.  Here's what I have for T-23 though:

 - Black Widow - .188x (2.48m)

 - Downton Abbey - 1.82x (1.91m)

 - Dragon Ball - .58x (2.49m)

 - Eternals - .267x (2.54m)

 - JW3 - .133x (2.36m)

 - Nope - .936x (5.99m)

 - Sonic 2 - 1.594x (7.94m)

 - Thor 4 - .06x (1.75m)

 

Not sure how wide this is going, but I'd say that's a pretty great start!  I'm also seeing about 65 midnight shows on Tuesday; only one in my regions though and it hadn't sold any tickets yet.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-9	Jax	6	128	74	2,330	18,561	12.55%
		Phx	7	131	73	1,805	19,081	9.46%
		Ral	8	128	144	3,003	15,185	19.78%
	Total		21	387	291	7,138	52,827	13.51%
BP2 DF	T-9	Jax	2	3	4	141	292	48.29%
	Total		2	3	4	141	292	48.29%
Glass Onion	T-22	Jax	4	16	0	55	1,847	2.98%
		Phx	2	8	2	56	736	7.61%
		Ral	2	11	6	101	896	11.27%
	Total		8	35	8	212	3,479	6.09%
One Piece	T-2	Jax	5	24	32	228	5,074	4.49%
		Phx	5	15	24	221	2,847	7.76%
		Ral	7	19	33	248	2,929	8.47%
	Total		17	58	89	697	10,850	6.42%

 

One Piece T-2 comps

 - Dragon Ball - .566x (2.43m)

 - JJK - .516x (1.48m)

 - MHA - .597x (1.72m)

 

Black Panther T-9 comps

 - Black Widow - 2.91x (38.43m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.11x (32.28m)

 - DS2 - .65x (23.33m)

 - NWH - .367x (18.37m)

 - Batman - 2x (35.13m)

 

I don't really have any good Glass Onion comps this far out, especially with it being OD sales.  Here's what I have for T-22 though:

 - Black Widow - .164x (2.16m)

 - Downton Abbey - 1.64x (1.73m)

 - Dragon Ball - .575x (2.47m)

 - Eternals - .239x (2.27m)

 - JW3 - .136x (2.41m)

 - Nope - .906x (5.8m)

 - Sonic 2 - 1.35x (6.72m)

 - Thor 4 - .06x (1.62m)