The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Prime]

On 11/7/2022 at 9:25 PM, Eric Killmonger said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	265	10675	45888	23.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 712

 

Comp

0.498x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-3 (24.92M)

1.369x of The Batman T-3 (29.58M)

0.741x of Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (26.67M)

1.291x of Thor 4 T-3 (37.43M)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	279	11595	47417	24.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 920

 

Comp

0.492x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-2 (24.6M)

1.328x of The Batman T-2 (28.68M)

0.746x of Doctor Strange 2 T-2 (26.86M)

1.256x of Thor 4 T-2 (36.43M)

[charlie Jatinder]

.

Edited November 9, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

My estimates for BP2 are ~$45M pre-sales as of yesterday, which matches with Disney update. 

 

DSitMoM was $60M (25% behind)
Thor 4 was $35M (28% ahead)

 

The $45M number for BP2 has come from Disney but the other numbers Deadline put are their own, so just ignore those. 

Edited November 9, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Verrows]

29 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

My estimates for BP2 are ~$45M pre-sales as of yesterday, which matches with Disney update. 

 

DSitMoM was $60M (25% behind)
Thor 4 was $35M (28% ahead)

 

The $45M number for BP2 has come from Disney but the other numbers Deadline put are their own, so just ignore those. 

Given that, what are your personal estimates for OW?

[ZackM]

23 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	2	0	0	2	0
Seats Added	320	0	0	313	0
Seats Sold	905	291	226	235	234
11/7/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	215	795	13,386	127,116	10.53%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	1	4	13
ATP
$13.51

 

 

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	4	2	0	0	2
Seats Added	584	320	0	0	313
Seats Sold	598	905	291	226	235
11/8/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	215	799	13,984	127,700	10.95%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	4	16
ATP
$13.51

[Cooper Legion]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

My estimates for BP2 are ~$45M pre-sales as of yesterday, which matches with Disney update. 

 

DSitMoM was $60M (25% behind)
Thor 4 was $35M (28% ahead)

 

The $45M number for BP2 has come from Disney but the other numbers Deadline put are their own, so just ignore those. 

L&T 144/35~=4.1x

DS2 187/60~= 3.1x

 

BP needs ~4.44x for 200. Some pace/review/deme related reasons to be hopeful though.

[Porthos]

On 11/8/2022 at 2:59 AM, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	355	30945	41993	11048	26.31%

 

Total Showings Added Today	47
Total Seats Added Today	3929
Total Seats Sold Today	914

 

T-3 Comp

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	71.79		1037	15390		0/368	28239/43629	35.27%		21117	52.32%		25.84m
L&T	109.29		550	10109		0/251	23592/33701	30.00%		16962	65.13%		31.69m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     2801/13034  [21.49% sold]
Matinee:      617/4875  [12.66% | 5.58% of all tickets sold]

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-2 days and counting [REVISED]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	2	375	31211	43138	11927	27.65%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	20
Total Net Seats Added Today	1145
Total Net Seats Sold Today	879

 

T-2 Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	71.97		1182	16572		0/383	28323/44895	36.91%		21117	56.48%		25.91m
L&T	105.83		1161	11270		0/311	28171/39441	28.57%		16962	70.32%		30.69m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     3051/13217  [23.08% sold]
Matinee:    675/4761  [14.18% | 5.66% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

One major MAJOR ***MAJOR*** NOTE.  When I was doing my track late (late late) last night, two 3D showings at one of the B-tier theaters in town got marked as sold out.  It looked like an error, but at 3am in the morning I wasn't going to investigate it too closely and absolutely not think about it.  They're still marked as sold out now though and are sold out on the corp site in question.  So I added it to tonight's totals rather than backdate it to last night.

 

Backdated, it'd be more like this:

 

T-3:  1122 tickets sold

T-2:   899 tickets sold

 

With 208 tickets being the amount of tickets sold in those two showings. I still kinda think this is an error.  If it is, then it'd be:

 

T-3: 914 tickets sold

T-2: 899 tickets sold

Which would shift the MoM comp to 25.95m and the L&T comp to 30.74m.

 

I might go back and back date this after all.  I'll sit and think on it.

 

After further inve4stigation not only did I decide that this was not a legit sellout after all, but that it is very likely that those two showings are unavailable.  See this post for the details.

Edited November 10, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

One major MAJOR ***MAJOR*** NOTE.  When I was doing my track late (late late) last night, two 3D showings at one of the B-tier theaters in town got marked as sold out.  It looked like an error, but at 3am in the morning I wasn't going to investigate it too closely and absolutely not think about it.  They're still marked as sold out now though and are sold out on the corp site in question.  So I added it to tonight's totals rather than backdate it to last night.

I will probably ignore the two. How much they had sold before? If 0 well likely the shows are canned to change in some other timing or format.

The film isn't selling well enough to have SOLD OUTs that too in 3D that too in B-tier theater. 

Edited November 9, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Jonan23]

48 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-2 days and counting

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	4	377	31211	43366	12155	28.03%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today*	2
Total Showings Added Today	22
Total Seats Added Today	1373
Total Seats Sold Today*	1107

* See NOTE BELOW

 

T-2 Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	73.35		1182	16572		0/383	28323/44895	36.91%		21117	57.56%		26.40m
L&T	107.85		1161	11270		0/311	28171/39441	28.57%		16962	71.66%		31.28m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     3051/13217  [23.08% sold]
Matinee:    789/4875  [16.18% | 6.49% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

One major MAJOR ***MAJOR*** NOTE.  When I was doing my track late (late late) last night, two 3D showings at one of the B-tier theaters in town got marked as sold out.  It looked like an error, but at 3am in the morning I wasn't going to investigate it too closely and absolutely not think about it.  They're still marked as sold out now though and are sold out on the corp site in question.  So I added it to tonight's totals rather than backdate it to last night.

 

Backdated, it'd be more like this:

 

T-3:  1122 tickets sold

T-2:   899 tickets sold

 

With 208 tickets being the amount of tickets sold in those two showings. I still kinda think this is an error.  If it is, then it'd be:

 

T-3: 914 tickets sold

T-2: 899 tickets sold

Which would shift the MoM comp to 25.95m and the L&T comp to 30.74m.

 

I might go back and back date this after all.  I'll sit and think on it.

Is it possible they are corporate block screenings? 

[Porthos]

36 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I will probably ignore the two. How much they had sold before? If 0 well likely the shows are canned to change in some other timing or format.

The film isn't selling well enough to have SOLD OUTs that too in 3D that too in B-tier theater. 

 

13 and 7 respectively.

 

Thing is, we already had a sell out at a C-tier theater in town and what is very likely spillover in the very next showing with a block of 50 tickets being sold.  Now that was a pair of 2D showings, but still, a film like this will have a major amount of directed interest, so it is... perhaps more possible than a "standard" film of this range, IMO.

 

Last night I was leaning toward Error. It's still there though and being flagged as a genuine sellout on Fandango now which is why I reported it tonight.  Also, at the ticket levels we're currently talking about .5m difference in comp which is... Well I won't call it a rounding error but it isn't that significant when we're in the upper 20s.

 

If I were to give personal odds right now, it'd probably be something like 65% chance genuine/35% chance corp error.  And if it's still there at final bell, pretty sure I have to include it.  After all, with the sheer amount of tickets that will be sold between now and then (prob around, what, 4000 to 5000+ tickets*) 200 extra tickets really will be a rounding error at that stage.

 

* MoM sold 4545 tickets on its last two days and L&T sold a whopping 5692

[Porthos]

31 minutes ago, Jonan23 said:

Is it possible they are corporate block screenings? 

 

Possible, sure.  But it'd still be reported as sold tickets at the end of the day.  

 

(and, as I said, gonna be close to a rounding error when all is said and done — mostly just pointing it out so the tickets sold now can be analyzed for trends for those who care)

[charlie Jatinder]

35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

13 and 7 respectively.

Yeah more likely to be error with these sales.

[Nikostar]

So this could come close to 200 after all.

[Tinalera]

Hey everyone sorry its been....its been a week lol. Have been very bad at no BP numbers will get some today for my neck of the woods,

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 11/8/2022 at 9:10 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-2	Jax	6	138	255	3,532	18,688	18.90%
		Phx	7	155	474	3,317	20,458	16.21%
		Ral	8	139	338	4,586	16,177	28.35%
	Total		21	432	1,067	11,435	55,323	20.67%
BP2 DF	T-2	Jax	2	4	11	169	355	47.61%
	Total		2	4	11	169	355	47.61%
Glass Onion	T-15	Jax	4	16	11	95	1,847	5.14%
		Phx	2	8	4	76	736	10.33%
		Ral	2	11	9	141	896	15.74%
	Total		8	35	24	312	3,479	8.97%
She Said	T-9	Jax	5	11	2	5	1,042	0.48%
		Phx	3	6	0	2	352	0.57%
		Ral	5	10	0	4	598	0.67%
	Total		13	27	2	11	1,992	0.55%
The Menu	T-9	Jax	4	10	0	14	966	1.45%
		Phx	5	12	9	33	1,389	2.38%
		Ral	8	20	-1	36	1,495	2.41%
	Total		17	42	8	83	3,850	2.16%
The Menu (EA)	T-7	Jax	1	1	5	5	81	6.17%
		Phx	3	3	5	6	239	2.51%
	Total		4	4	10	11	320	3.44%

 

Black Panther T-2 comps

 - Black Widow - 2.799x (36.94m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.188x (34.44m)

 - DS2 - .674x (24.26m)*

 - NWH - .447x (22.33m)

 - Batman - 1.823x (32.08m)

*DS2 comp was reported as 23.53m yesterday instead of 24.53

 

Glass Onion T-15 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - NTTD + EA - .714x (4.5m)

 - F9 - .577x (4.09m)

 - Ghostbusters + EA - 1.07x (4.82m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .129x (2.48m)

 

The Menu T-9 comps

 - Amsterdam - 1.6x (878k)

 - Crawdads - .415x (830k)

 

She Said T-9 comps

 - Elvis - .04x (124k)

 - House of Gucci - .297x (386k)

 - King Richard - .393x (762k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-1	Jax	6	147	195	3,727	19,331	19.28%
		Phx	7	157	401	3,718	20,630	18.02%
		Ral	8	146	416	5,002	16,664	30.02%
ATP: 14.14	Total		21	450	1,012	12,447	56,625	21.98%
BP2 DF	T-1	Jax	2	4	11	180	355	50.70%
	Total		2	4	11	180	355	50.70%
Glass Onion	T-14	Jax	4	16	5	100	1,847	5.41%
		Phx	2	8	5	81	736	11.01%
		Ral	2	11	5	146	896	16.29%
ATP: 11.01	Total		8	35	15	327	3,479	9.40%
She Said	T-8	Jax	5	11	0	5	1,042	0.48%
		Phx	3	6	1	3	352	0.85%
		Ral	5	10	0	4	598	0.67%
	Total		13	27	1	12	1,992	0.60%
The Menu	T-8	Jax	4	10	4	18	966	1.86%
		Phx	5	12	2	35	1,389	2.52%
		Ral	8	20	14	50	1,495	3.34%
	Total		17	42	20	103	3,850	2.68%
The Menu (EA)	T-6	Jax	1	1	0	5	81	6.17%
		Phx	3	3	3	9	239	3.77%
	Total		4	4	3	14	320	4.38%

 

Black Panther T-1 comps

 - Black Widow - 2.66x (35.15m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.124x (32.6m)

 - DS2 - .679x (24.44m)*

 - NWH - .446x (22.31m)

 - Batman - 1.694x (29.82m)

 

Glass Onion T-14 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - NTTD + EA - .693x (4.36m)

 - F9 - .574x (4.07m)

 - Ghostbusters + EA - .959x (4.31m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .127x (2.44m)

 

The Menu T-8 comps

 - Amsterdam - 1.94x (1.07m)

 - Crawdads - .47x (941k)

 

She Said T-8 comps

 - Elvis - .04x (121k)

 - House of Gucci - .24x (312k)

 - King Richard - .333x (646k)

Edited November 9, 2022 by katnisscinnaplex
Add ATP

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Black Panther 2	PLF	34	159	3,768	7,432	50.70%	$15.27	$57,527.22
		Standard	126	449	3,654	13,462	27.14%	$11.51	$42,075.49
	Total		160	608	7,422	20,894	35.52%	$13.42	$99,602.71
	Black Panther 2 DF	Standard	2	6	92	317	29.02%	$23.82	$2,191.44
	Total		2	6	92	317	29.02%	$23.82	$2,191.44
T-3	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	PLF	67	396	4,500	13,617	33.05%	$15.12	$68,045.75
		Standard	90	368	2,546	11,608	21.93%	$10.92	$27,803.29
	Total		157	764	7,046	25,225	27.93%	$13.60	$95,849.04

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Black Panther 2	N	122	503	6,446	15,774	40.86%	$13.83	$89,166.45
		Y	38	105	976	5,120	19.06%	$10.69	$10,436.26
	Total		160	608	7,422	20,894	35.52%	$13.42	$99,602.71
T-3	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	N	77	420	5,089	12,760	39.88%	$14.60	$74,304.89
		Y	80	344	1,957	12,465	15.70%	$11.01	$21,544.15
	Total		157	764	7,046	25,225	27.93%	$13.60	$95,849.04

 

BP2 Thu T-2 comps

 - NWH - .415x (20.73m)

 - DS2 - .548x (19.71m)

 - Thor 4 - .898x (26.04m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.326x (28.65m)

 

BP2 Fri T-3 comps

 - NWH - .46x (33.13m)

 - DS2 - .646x (35.34m)

 - Thor 4 - Missed

 - Batman - 1.312x (45.93m)

 

Slowly we move forward...

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Black Panther 2	PLF	39	159	3,927	8,374	46.90%	$15.22	$59,773.81
		Standard	134	493	4,147	14,744	28.13%	$11.51	$47,714.60
	Total		173	652	8,074	23,118	34.93%	$13.31	$107,488.41
	Black Panther 2 DF	Standard	2	10	102	317	32.18%	$23.82	$2,429.64
	Total		2	10	102	317	32.18%	$23.82	$2,429.64
T-2	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	PLF	78	353	4,853	15,111	32.12%	$15.01	$72,826.91
		Standard	159	578	3,124	18,738	16.67%	$11.03	$34,454.57
	Total		237	931	7,977	33,849	23.57%	$13.45	$107,281.48

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Black Panther 2	N	132	568	7,014	17,358	40.41%	$13.71	$96,174.34
		Y	41	84	1,060	5,760	18.40%	$10.67	$11,314.07
	Total		173	652	8,074	23,118	34.93%	$13.31	$107,488.41
T-2	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	N	117	579	5,668	16,842	33.65%	$14.45	$81,875.61
		Y	120	352	2,309	17,007	13.58%	$11.00	$25,405.87
	Total		237	931	7,977	33,849	23.57%	$13.45	$107,281.48

 

BP2 Thu T-1 comps

 - NWH - .425x (21.23m)

 - DS2 - missed

 - Thor 4 - .873x (25.32m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.248x (26.95m)

 

BP2 Fri T-2 comps

 - NWH - .46x (34.14m)

 - DS2 - missed

 - Thor 4 - 1.255x (50.91m)

 - Batman - 1.239x (43.37m)

 

I hadn't really put out a prediction before today, but I'd put my guess around 27m at the moment.  

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

If a lot of people have Veterans Day off, wouldn't that make the pre-sales less Thursday heavy?

 

*

 

In non-Wakanda Forever news....

 

Regal: "It's not always going to be an Apple TV+ movie, we swear!"

[keysersoze123]

24 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I hadn't really put out a prediction before today, but I'd put my guess around 27m at the moment.  

Is this just based on Santikos or your overall data including JAX/PHX/RAL. 

 

 

[Nikostar]

Nice to see an MCU movie that is more backloaded. Makes the weekend fun like the original film

[Verrows]

50 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Nice to see an MCU movie that is more backloaded. Makes the weekend fun like the original film

Agreed. Big true weekends are fun. I found the opening for MoM to be full, even if the overall number was good.