The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

Again people are just keeping spewing this "backloaded" comments without any data. Wakanda Forever is a hyped MCU sequel to a mega blockbuster. With a mature fan base and urge to see it as fast as possible to avoid "spoilers" and its humongous release, it will be FRONTLOADED. Definition of backloaded are animation movies. Frozen 2 despite being a hyped sequel did 8.5 million previews and 41.8m friday including previews. That to me is backloaded. Wakanda previews to OW will be less than even a mediocre DCU movie Black Adam(though being a smaller movie multis generallly tend to be higher unless it just collapses like say Suicide Squad last year).

 

That said Wakanda will have much better friday relative to thursday previews than DS2 or Thor. But I would not call that as backloaded. If Sunday drop is way better than norm for fall BO then we can talk about its BO being leggy. For now let us wait until Sunday or we have strong data to back itup. 

[jedijake]

Without being snippy and without sarcastic comments, what are the predicted numbers for true Friday and Saturday?

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Again people are just keeping spewing this "backloaded" comments without any data. Wakanda Forever is a hyped MCU sequel to a mega blockbuster. With a mature fan base and urge to see it as fast as possible to avoid "spoilers" and its humongous release, it will be FRONTLOADED. Definition of backloaded are animation movies. Frozen 2 despite being a hyped sequel did 8.5 million previews and 41.8m friday including previews. That to me is backloaded. Wakanda previews to OW will be less than even a mediocre DCU movie Black Adam(though being a smaller movie multis generallly tend to be higher unless it just collapses like say Suicide Squad last year).

 

That said Wakanda will have much better friday relative to thursday previews than DS2 or Thor. But I would not call that as backloaded. If Sunday drop is way better than norm for fall BO then we can talk about its BO being leggy. For now let us wait until Sunday or we have strong data to back itup. 

I think backloaded and frontloaded are to be taken in context.

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Is this just based on Santikos or your overall data including JAX/PHX/RAL. 

 

 

Based on my regions and Santikos combined.  

[Verrows]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Again people are just keeping spewing this "backloaded" comments without any data. Wakanda Forever is a hyped MCU sequel to a mega blockbuster. With a mature fan base and urge to see it as fast as possible to avoid "spoilers" and its humongous release, it will be FRONTLOADED. Definition of backloaded are animation movies. Frozen 2 despite being a hyped sequel did 8.5 million previews and 41.8m friday including previews. That to me is backloaded. Wakanda previews to OW will be less than even a mediocre DCU movie Black Adam(though being a smaller movie multis generallly tend to be higher unless it just collapses like say Suicide Squad last year).

 

That said Wakanda will have much better friday relative to thursday previews than DS2 or Thor. But I would not call that as backloaded. If Sunday drop is way better than norm for fall BO then we can talk about its BO being leggy. For now let us wait until Sunday or we have strong data to back itup. 

Well that's all I personally meant by backloaded. I don't expect to have a really high internal multi or have incredible legs or anything. I'm just going by tracking here which seems to suggest strong weekend proper numbers. 

[Tinalera]

In a busy time these days. Here's Thursdays numbers, no comps (just literally not having the time)

 

Black Panther 2

Nov 10 (T-1 Thurs)

SW/Toronto Ontario

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	135	9540	31156	40696	0.2344

 

 

Just a quick not math look at comparables, BP 2 is about 2 thousand behind Thor 4 at same time and about 3 thousand behind Dr Strange 2. Again sorry, will try and get more formal comps possible and Friday later (Black Adam its about 7000 above Black Adam numbers)

[Deep Wang]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Again people are just keeping spewing this "backloaded" comments without any data. Wakanda Forever is a hyped MCU sequel to a mega blockbuster. With a mature fan base and urge to see it as fast as possible to avoid "spoilers" and its humongous release, it will be FRONTLOADED. Definition of backloaded are animation movies. Frozen 2 despite being a hyped sequel did 8.5 million previews and 41.8m friday including previews. That to me is backloaded. Wakanda previews to OW will be less than even a mediocre DCU movie Black Adam(though being a smaller movie multis generallly tend to be higher unless it just collapses like say Suicide Squad last year).

 

That said Wakanda will have much better friday relative to thursday previews than DS2 or Thor. But I would not call that as backloaded. If Sunday drop is way better than norm for fall BO then we can talk about its BO being leggy. For now let us wait until Sunday or we have strong data to back itup. 

 

 

I think that maybe what people are saying is that much like the original BP, this one will be more backloaded compared to other recent MCU comps.  

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Without being snippy and without sarcastic comments, what are the predicted numbers for true Friday and Saturday?

I want to wait to see how walkups are tomorrow. based on presales seen so far, its sure to have better friday bump from thursday than DS2 or Thor due to Veteran's day bump( Duh). But we also see its BO is doing very well in some markets and underperforming in few others. Reviews to me not glowing enough to be a humongous factor(its not a con either). 

 

if you put a gun on my head I would say 28-30m previews/55 friday/55m sat/40m sunday. It could do more if walkups are better. 

[Verrows]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I want to wait to see how walkups are tomorrow. based on presales seen so far, its sure to have better friday bump from thursday than DS2 or Thor due to Veteran's day bump( Duh). But we also see its BO is doing very well in some markets and underperforming in few others. Reviews to me not glowing enough to be a humongous factor(its not a con either). 

 

if you put a gun on my head I would say 28-30m previews/55 friday/55m sat/40m sunday. It could do more if walkups are better. 

Even taking into account the Veterans Day bump I'm really hoping Saturday sees an increase instead of flat but I obviously won't expect it.

 

I've said this before so I realize I'm beating a dead horse but I'm just so surprised at the projected preview numbers. I really thought this movie would be a bigger deal. However, I'm probably also really understating how big a deal Multiverse of Madness was and that's the film I'm measuring Wakanda Forever against.

[keysersoze123]

21 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think backloaded and frontloaded are to be taken in context.

If you look at all MCU blockbusters from Endgame onwards, 

 

Black Widow/Eternals did around 6x, Shang Chi(which was a smaller 1st movie) did about 8.4x while NWH did < 5x(I would still not call it frontloaded, it was just fully loaded over the weekend) while DS2/Thor did about 5x. I think BP would be about 6x. That cannot be called backloaded for sure. 

[jedijake]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

If you look at all MCU blockbusters from Endgame onwards, 

 

Black Widow/Eternals did around 6x, Shang Chi(which was a smaller 1st movie) did about 8.4x while NWH did < 5x(I would still not call it frontloaded, it was just fully loaded over the weekend) while DS2/Thor did about 5x. I think BP would be about 6x. That cannot be called backloaded for sure. 

On a $27-$29 million preview, that would give a $162-$174 million OW.

 

Why are some suggesting over DSMoM?

Edited November 9, 2022 by jedijake

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, jedijake said:

On a $27-$29 million preview, that would give a $162-$174 million OW.

 

Why are some suggesting over DSMoM?

I said 28-30 for now. 6x is rough ballpark. May be those who think it will open way higher than that either think its previews will be even higher or friday would be closer to 60m. I would not say impossible. Let us see how walkups go tomorrow. @ZackM normally does a timezone level breakdown of how walkups go. We can compare that to NWH/DS2/Thor 2 to see where this will end up. From Friday @charlie Jatinder will be the best person to project from real time data. 

[Eric Onion]

Quorum Updates

The Fabelmans T-14: 11.89% Awareness, 4.83 Interest

Strange World T-14: 29.4%, 5.26

Violent Night T-23: 32.31%, 5.66

Chevalier T-149: 14.6%, 4.69

Barbie T-254: 33.06%, 4.44

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever T-2: 66.05% Awareness, 6.93 Interest

*Note that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever's Final numbers are subject to change*

Final General Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

General Interest: 100% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

The Menu T-9: 23.4% Awareness, 5.32 Interest

*Note that The Menu's Final numbers are subject to change*

Final General Awareness: 4% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 68% chance of double-digit opening

Original - Low Awareness: 10% chance of 5M, 0% chance of double digits

Original - Low Interest: 64% chance of 5M, 36% chance of double digits

 

M3gan T-58: 32.73% Awareness, 5.77 Interest

T-60 General Awareness: 96% chance of double-digit opening, 85% chance of 20M, 77% chance of 30M

General Interest: 93% chance of double-digits, 86% chance of 20M, 79% chance of 30M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 40M

[keysersoze123]

Wakanda Forever MTC2 Previews - 199320/905018 2853485.87 6980 shows

 

About third of the shows I got data only this morning. Rest was overnight run. Still its chugging along. Like for Like comps with Thor is about 27-28m. That said MTC1 is looking more promising. 

[keysersoze123]

Not sure where to post this but

 

https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/films/1694412/Tom-Holland-Spider-Man-4-Avengers-Kang-Dynasty-Secret-Wars

 

 

[Verrows]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Not sure where to post this but

 

https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/films/1694412/Tom-Holland-Spider-Man-4-Avengers-Kang-Dynasty-Secret-Wars

 

 

*Whistles*

 

Tom about to get PAID!

[Factcheck]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Not sure where to post this but

 

https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/films/1694412/Tom-Holland-Spider-Man-4-Avengers-Kang-Dynasty-Secret-Wars

 

 

You should've posted this at either Daredevil, Kang dynasty or Secret Wars thread not here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just kidding

Edited November 9, 2022 by Factcheck

[Verrows]

Makes me wonder when Sony is planning Spider-Man 4 for. Marvel Studios announced their slate already with some dates still untitled (February 16, 2024/July 25, 2025/November 7, 2025/February 13, 2026/July 24 or 31, 2026). Spider-Man 5 could take one of those dates or it will be an additional MCU movie on top of whatever takes those dates. My guess is July 2025 but Sony may not want to wait that long to get it out there.

 

Of course it all depends on the overall MCU narrative and where it fits in.

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

You should've posted this at either Daredevil, Kang dynasty or Secret Wars thread not here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just kidding

You can do that :-) I think this is huge from BO perspective. Good to see he is locked for another decade. 

[Factcheck]

8 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Makes me wonder when Sony is planning Spider-Man 4 for. Marvel Studios announced their slate already with some dates still untitled (February 16, 2024/July 25, 2025/November 7, 2025/February 13, 2026/July 24 or 31, 2026). Spider-Man 5 could take one of those dates or it will be an additional MCU movie on top of whatever takes those dates. My guess is July 2025 but Sony may not want to wait that long to get it out there.

 

Of course it all depends on the overall MCU narrative and where it fits in.

July 12 2024 if the rumoured deal order is correct but would marvel studios release 2 movies in the same month just 2 weeks apart?