The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

On 11/7/2022 at 8:00 AM, M37 said:

 

After the final weekend of pre-sales, honestly not much more clarity on the expected Thursday:

 

 

The tl;dr: If BPWF sales pace from this point like Strange MoM, looking at ~$25M in previews, and if it tracks closer to Thor L&T, then ~$32M. Sales are pacing slightly ahead of both comps across all samples, but Thor's pattern was a July 4th holiday influenced anomaly, and MoM had a relatively weaker final few days. Most likely, it falls somewhere in between, with the overall average hovering around ~$28M, which seems a reasonable estimate at this point (but also wouldn't be shocking to see a strong late kick, climbing up to - if not over - $30M)

 

Bit of a choose your own adventure at this point, with the potentially complicating factor of Tuesday review drop also being Election Day, which may distort daily sales & direct comparisons, so may continue to have a wide range/higher uncertainty until Wednesday or even Thursday

 

As of T-1, finally appear to be getting some clarity and convergence, but perhaps not the answer some hoped/expected. Generally, comps are trending up vs Strange at nearly the same ratio as down vs Thor, not really shifting the average, still bouncing around $28M, as it essentially has been since T-17/18

EDIT: updated with Alpha numbers posted below

 

 

Some caveats (aka hopium): Tuesday's Election Day, plus the uncertainty in results into Wednesday may have pulled attention away from ticket sales, while the nation's 3rd most populous state being engulfed by hurricane/tropical storm Nicole (👋) may also be a limiting factor, and the Friday holiday creating a higher walk-up potential for Thursday night.

 

With all of that said, IMO the chances of the preview's first digit flipping to a 3 have decreased by a fair amount with the softer sales over last few days. Signs look to be pointing to ~$28M ($27-$29M) for Thursday, but with less certainty on the ceiling than usual for this size of release

Edited November 10, 2022 by M37

[ZackM]

18 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Sorry for the delay...From last night:

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	396	380	8	17	59
Seats Added	41,549	41,073	584	1,388	6,892
Seats Sold	26,132	22,067	14,436	10,642	10,457
11/8/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	8,617	313,710	1,281,724	24.48%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	65	299	719	1,271
ATP
$16.42
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
11/8/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	97	9,210	22,354	41.20%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	6	14	26	42
ATP
$17.54

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2	$28.4	$28.2	$23.8	$24.1
T-3	$28.4	$28.1	$23.8	$24.1
T-4	$27.7	$27.5	$23.5	$23.8
T-5	$27.3	$27.1	$23.4	$23.7
T-6	$27.0	$26.9	$23.1	$23.4
T-7	$26.9	$26.8	$22.8	$23.2
T-8	$26.8	$26.7	$22.7	$23.1
T-9	$26.6	$26.4	$22.5	$22.9
T-10	$26.4	$26.3	$22.5	$22.9
T-11	$26.4	$26.3	$22.3	$22.7
T-12	$26.6	$26.5	$22.2	$22.7
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	200	396	380	8	17
Seats Added	16,194	41,549	41,073	584	1,388
Seats Sold	35,316	26,132	22,067	14,436	10,642
11/9/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	8,817	349,026	1,297,918	26.89%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	96	358	846	1,550
ATP
$16.27
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
11/9/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	97	9,615	22,354	43.01%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	7	17	29	43
ATP
$17.51

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1	$28.0	$27.8	$24.4	$24.7
T-2	$28.4	$28.2	$23.8	$24.1
T-3	$28.4	$28.1	$23.8	$24.1
T-4	$27.7	$27.5	$23.5	$23.8
T-5	$27.3	$27.1	$23.4	$23.7
T-6	$27.0	$26.9	$23.1	$23.4
T-7	$26.9	$26.8	$22.8	$23.2
T-8	$26.8	$26.7	$22.7	$23.1
T-9	$26.6	$26.4	$22.5	$22.9
T-10	$26.4	$26.3	$22.5	$22.9
T-11	$26.4	$26.3	$22.3	$22.7
T-12	$26.6	$26.5	$22.2	$22.7
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

[Cooper Legion]

Well that’s the opposite of an eday correction 😆  

 

Final kick just doesn’t seem to be there. I think it will need some luck/good walkups to clear 170.

[jedijake]

13 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Well that’s the opposite of an eday correction 😆  

 

Final kick just doesn’t seem to be there. I think it will need some luck/good walkups to clear 170.

Wow that would absolutely SUCK!!!

[keysersoze123]

As I said before Thor final 2 days presales were out of ordinary. One was July 4 affecting sales earlier that week and other being summer I expect would play better with families. This has lot going for it being sequel to cultural phenom BP but also working through a tremendous handicap of being the movie without the lead of that movie.

 

Thor/DS2 comps for Wakanda should converge today. Thor will drop and DS2 will come closer. Thor did slightly better than what DS2 comps indicated 28.2/28.4(unweighted/weighted). I would say ~27m previews. 

 

That said Friday has become the most important day. Walkups today will provide indication as to where it can end up. Let us wait and see. 

[Eric Prime]

Moderation

 

If you guys really want to do this premature dooming and glooming, I feel the weekend thread is more appropriate to take this convo.

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Since I have numbers for The Batman, MoM and L&T I'm going to go ahead and run BPWF today around 3PM for Friday numbers and see how we're looking. Based on the tea leaves in here it seems even $190M might be off the board but I'm still hopeful that some of the "no Black Panther in the Black Panther movie" stigma wears off by the end of today and WOM starts taking over. 

[keysersoze123]

Wakanda Forever MTC2 previews(T-1) - 229876/941517 3259000.41 7402 shows +30556

 

Eh increase for day before. Now its all about walkups. Let us see how the day goes. 

Edited November 10, 2022 by keysersoze123

[Shawn Robbins]

Will likely revise the final BOP pinpoint later today just to err on the side of caution and manage expectations (the range may or may not change). Friday sales remain around 10-25% ahead of Thursday sales at this stage depending on the market, though, which kept pace with recent days. Thor and DSITMOM Friday pre-sales were below their Thursdays even this late in the game.

 

This movie may just end up being its own enigma ticket tracking-wise, for better or worse.

[Verrows]

1 minute ago, Shawn said:

Will likely revise the final BOP pinpoint later today just to err on the side of caution and manage expectations (the range may or may not change). Friday sales remain around 10-25% ahead of Thursday sales at this stage depending on the market, though, which kept pace with recent days. Thor and DSITMOM Friday pre-sales were below their Thursdays even this late in the game.

 

This movie may just end up being its own enigma ticket tracking-wise, for better or worse.

That's exactly what I said in the weekend thread and what I'm hoping for. What are you seeing for Saturday and Sunday?

Edited November 10, 2022 by Verrows

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 11/9/2022 at 10:51 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Black Panther 2	PLF	39	159	3,927	8,374	46.90%	$15.22	$59,773.81
		Standard	134	493	4,147	14,744	28.13%	$11.51	$47,714.60
	Total		173	652	8,074	23,118	34.93%	$13.31	$107,488.41
	Black Panther 2 DF	Standard	2	10	102	317	32.18%	$23.82	$2,429.64
	Total		2	10	102	317	32.18%	$23.82	$2,429.64
T-2	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	PLF	78	353	4,853	15,111	32.12%	$15.01	$72,826.91
		Standard	159	578	3,124	18,738	16.67%	$11.03	$34,454.57
	Total		237	931	7,977	33,849	23.57%	$13.45	$107,281.48

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Black Panther 2	N	132	568	7,014	17,358	40.41%	$13.71	$96,174.34
		Y	41	84	1,060	5,760	18.40%	$10.67	$11,314.07
	Total		173	652	8,074	23,118	34.93%	$13.31	$107,488.41
T-2	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	N	117	579	5,668	16,842	33.65%	$14.45	$81,875.61
		Y	120	352	2,309	17,007	13.58%	$11.00	$25,405.87
	Total		237	931	7,977	33,849	23.57%	$13.45	$107,281.48

 

BP2 Thu T-1 comps

 - NWH - .425x (21.23m)

 - DS2 - missed

 - Thor 4 - .873x (25.32m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.248x (26.95m)

 

BP2 Fri T-2 comps

 - NWH - .46x (34.14m)

 - DS2 - missed

 - Thor 4 - 1.255x (50.91m)

 - Batman - 1.239x (43.37m)

 

I hadn't really put out a prediction before today, but I'd put my guess around 27m at the moment.  

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Panther 2	PLF	39	1,034	4,961	8,374	59.24%	$15.22	$75,500.18
		Standard	134	1,083	5,230	14,744	35.47%	$11.45	$59,876.93
	Total		173	2,117	10,191	23,118	44.08%	$13.28	$135,377.11
	Black Panther 2 DF	Standard	2	8	110	317	34.70%	$23.82	$2,620.20
	Total		2	8	110	317	34.70%	$23.82	$2,620.20
T-1	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	PLF	78	547	5,400	15,111	35.74%	$14.91	$80,513.17
		Standard	159	985	4,109	18,738	21.93%	$11.03	$45,318.35
	Total		237	1,532	9,509	33,849	28.09%	$13.23	$125,831.52

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Panther 2	N	132	1,830	8,844	17,358	50.95%	$13.70	$121,163.50
		Y	41	287	1,347	5,760	23.39%	$10.55	$14,213.61
	Total		173	2,117	10,191	23,118	44.08%	$13.28	$135,377.11
T-1	Black Panther 2 (Fri)	N	117	922	6,590	16,842	39.13%	$14.26	$93,985.38
		Y	120	610	2,919	17,007	17.16%	$10.91	$31,846.14
	Total		237	1,532	9,509	33,849	28.09%	$13.23	$125,831.52

 

BP2 Thu T-0 comps

 - NWH - .513x (25.65m)

 - DS2 - .642x (23.13m)

 - Thor 4 - .899x (26.08m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.286x (27.78m)

 

Solid last day which was really needed to catch up to other areas.  I'm sticking with my 27m prediction, and feel a lot better about it now that both regions are closing in around it.

 

BP2 Fri T-1 comps

 - NWH - .523x (37.67m)

 - DS2 - .714x (39.05m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.223x (49.59m)

 - Batman - 1.229x (43.04m)

 

Expecting a higher number for Friday with it being a holiday, but still a ways to go in one more day.

[Verrows]

Woops, wrong thread.

Edited November 10, 2022 by Verrows

[filmlover]

Don't know if this has been mentioned but I was just looking at the next few weeks while setting my busy movie plans in place for next weekend through the end of Thanksgiving weekend and it appears that The Menu will be having early access shows at some theaters on Tuesday, for anyone tracking it.

 

Also early access shows Puss in Boots the afternoon of Saturday, the 27th.

Edited November 10, 2022 by filmlover

[Old Spice]

I just tried accessing the Cinemark website here in SLC to get a preview of what today's report might look like and I was told that I had a place in line and that the expected wait time was 4 minutes. I didn't experience any delays with Batman or L&T on their opening Thursday. Maybe there's some sort of glitch in the system, but I thought it at least worth mentioning.

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, A Star is Delayed said:

I just tried accessing the Cinemark website here in SLC to get a preview of what today's report might look like and I was told that I had a place in line and that the expected wait time was 4 minutes. I didn't experience any delays with Batman or L&T on their opening Thursday. Maybe there's some sort of glitch in the system, but I thought it at least worth mentioning.

its a glitch for sure. Even NWH did not have it. They are adding further checks at their end. Wont help our tracking for sure :-)

[Menor the Destroyer]

Yeah I don't see any queue on the Cinemark website.

[cmbbox2390]

Does anyone know how it’s selling in the black majority markets like Atlanta, Baltimore, Detroit, Washington DC, etc.? Also how is it doing compared to DS2 and ThorL&T?

Edited November 10, 2022 by cmbbox2390

[Old Spice]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

its a glitch for sure. Even NWH did not have it. They are adding further checks at their end. Wont help our tracking for sure 🙂

Andddd, now it's gone. 🤷‍♂️ Okay sorry, I should have tried a few more times before posting. Regular update coming in 45.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, cmbbox2390 said:

Does anyone know how it’s selling in the black majority markets like Atlanta, Baltimore, Detroit, Washington DC, etc.? Also how is it doing compared to DS2 and ThorL&T?

 

I'll have a comp later today for Friday against L&T and MOM in Atlanta. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

5 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-0	Jax	6	154	396	4,123	19,704	20.92%
		Phx	7	157	609	4,325	20,175	21.44%
		Ral	8	149	692	5,694	16,805	33.88%
ATP: 14.07	Total		21	460	1,697	14,142	56,684	24.95%

 

Black Panther T-0 comps

 - Black Widow - 2.44x (32.24m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.06x (30.79m)

 - DS2 - .682x (24.56m)

 - NWH - .456x (22.78m)

 - Batman - 1.56x (27.46m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	1-Hr	Jax	6	47	646	1,687	6,539	25.80%
		Phx	7	56	196	1,450	6,751	21.48%
		Ral	8	54	291	1,926	6,160	31.27%
	Total		21	157	1,133	5,063	19,450	26.03%

 

Walkups are looking solid.  Here are the 3pm-<6pm shows.   That's about a 29% increase.  Here are the projected comps if that rate holds...

 

Black Panther T-1 hr hypothetical comps

 - Black Widow - 2.48x (32.71m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.11x (32.31m)

 - DS2 - .79x (28.46m)

 - NWH - .526x (26.3m)

 

My last run starts at 5pm for the rest of the shows.  We'll see if this holds and maybe I can update my prediction to ~28.5m or higher