The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[IronJimbo]

any presale wizard able to predict the opening day yet... i don't know up from down in here

[Cooper Legion]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

any presale wizard able to predict the opening day yet... i don't know up from down in here

OD is pretty tough, but we mostly track Th and the start looks like 16-24 or so

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Legion By Night said:

OD is pretty tough, but we mostly track Th and the start looks like 16-24 or so

Ok makes sense, i'm learning. I'll be up to speed soon I've always just stayed away from pre-sales so my knowledge is low.

 

For example what's TH? Do you guys have a cheat sheet?

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Ok makes sense, i'm learning. I'll be up to speed soon I've always just stayed away from pre-sales so my knowledge is low.

 

For example what's TH? Do you guys have a cheat sheet?

...th is thursday previews, lol.

[M37]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Ok makes sense, i'm learning. I'll be up to speed soon I've always just stayed away from pre-sales so my knowledge is low.

 

For example what's TH? Do you guys have a cheat sheet?

Thursday is the preview gross, for which the tracking in here is pretty damn good, especially from ~14-7 days from release 
 

With that number/range in hand, the next step is estimating the internal multiplier (IM), to project the opening weekend (OW) total from the preview.  For bigger openers, that value is usually a pretty narrow range, but Avatar 2 doesn’t fit neatly into a box. Could be a typical big opening lower value (6-7x range), but also not shocked if it goes higher (7-8x range). For comparison, both BPWF and TGM were around 6.5x, so that’s probably where to start, and then adjust as desired 

 

And then of course, can even estimate total gross (multiplier) from OW, but Thursday numbers don’t really help with that. After one day, a plausible outcome is $20M Thursday / $140M OW (7x) / $560M total (4x) 😉 … but so is $22/$175/$770. With every step in extrapolation, error bars get bigger, but it starts with getting a good handle on the Thursday (starting point)

[Borobudur]

I believe the so-called 3D resistance is just the result of lack of 3D push from Disney/20th century in its early marketing push. The 'Experience it in 3D" tagline only appear in its last trailer was the whole A2 was made for 3D from the start. 

[charlie Jatinder]

44 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I believe the so-called 3D resistance is just the result of lack of 3D push from Disney/20th century in its early marketing push. The 'Experience it in 3D" tagline only appear in its last trailer was the whole A2 was made for 3D from the start. 

Its lack of 3D screens outside bigger plexes. Most 3D screens are in bigger plexes, so smaller chains have no option but to go with 2D for now.

 

Harkins is one such chain, it has lower 3D share than others because 3D shows are very few. The Premium screens of the chain Cine1 & Cine Capri are best sellers and they are all 2D.

[GOGODanca]

I'm interested in tracking the saturday and sunday presale numbers, are those general highter than Th/Fri presales or lower cause people just walkup?

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 11/21/2022 at 8:23 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bones and All	T-1	Jax	5	9	2	24	756	3.17%
		Phx	6	11	0	12	711	1.69%
		Ral	6	8	13	33	891	3.70%
	Total		17	28	15	69	2,358	2.93%
Devotion	T-1	Jax	5	16	7	39	1,470	2.65%
		Phx	7	20	12	36	2,238	1.61%
		Ral	7	18	-8	26	1,516	1.72%
	Total		19	54	11	101	5,224	1.93%
Fabelmans	T-2	Jax	2	8	4	12	492	2.44%
		Phx	1	4	2	5	164	3.05%
		Ral	2	8	6	17	1,276	1.33%
	Total		5	20	12	34	1,932	1.76%
Glass Onion	T-2	Jax	4	17	31	215	1,962	10.96%
		Phx	3	16	52	201	1,380	14.57%
		Ral	2	13	39	331	996	33.23%
	Total		9	46	122	747	4,338	17.22%
Heard the Bells	T-10	Jax	4	5	10	92	678	13.57%
		Phx	2	2	0	26	596	4.36%
		Ral	6	6	0	244	566	43.11%
	Total		12	13	10	362	1,840	19.67%
Puss Boots (EA)	T-5	Jax	4	4	10	76	366	20.77%
		Phx	5	5	4	83	488	17.01%
		Ral	5	5	7	53	667	7.95%
	Total		14	14	21	212	1,521	13.94%
Puss in Boots	T-30	Jax	5	29	0	4	3,051	0.13%
		Phx	5	25	2	10	3,084	0.32%
		Ral	6	35	0	19	4,013	0.47%
	Total		16	89	2	33	10,148	0.33%
Strange World	T-1	Jax	5	19	6	27	1,936	1.39%
		Phx	7	23	16	42	2,994	1.40%
		Ral	8	19	12	25	2,100	1.19%
	Total		20	61	34	94	7,030	1.34%
Violent Night	T-10	Jax	5	18	4	21	1,974	1.06%
		Phx	5	14	0	16	2,161	0.74%
		Ral	6	13	2	25	1,485	1.68%
	Total		16	45	6	62	5,620	1.10%

 

Bones and All T-1 comps

 - Crawdads - .095x (190k)

 - Antlers - .9x (333k)

 - Smile - missed

 - Last Night in Soho - .54x (405k)

 

Strange World T-1 comps

 - Lightyear - .08x (390k)

 - Encanto - .303x (454k)

 - Sonic 2 - .067x (334k)

 - Sing 2 - .034x (274k)

 

Devotion - T-1 comps

 - Amsterdam - .71x (391k)

 - Snake Eyes - .324x (453k)

 - Free Guy - .25x (550k)

 - Massive Talent - .529x (370k)

 

Glass Onion T-2 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - NTTD + EA - missed

 - F9 - .432x (3.066m)

 - Ghostbusters + EA - .66x (2.99m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .115x (2.22m)

Fabelmans T-2 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - House of Gucci - .11x (144k)

 - Elvis - .046x (146k)

 

Puss in Boots EA T-5 comps

 - Sing 2 EA - .437x

 - Sonic 2 EA - 1.11x (1.41k)

 

(EA sales have been consistently increasing against the comps.  Should be a solid day)

 

Violent Night T-10 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.938x (969k)

 - Bullet Train - .286x (957k)

 - Northman - .66x (890k)

 

I Heard the Bells T-10 comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - .848x (1.526m)

 

Puss in Boots T-30 comps

 - Nope - .196x (1.26m)

 - JW3 + EA - .02x (356k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-23	Jax	5	69	384	384	10,350	3.71%
		Phx	6	70	292	292	10,839	2.69%
		Ral	8	64	302	302	8,035	3.76%
	Total		19	203	978	978	29,224	3.35%
Bones and All	T-0	Jax	5	9	8	32	756	4.23%
		Phx	6	11	9	21	711	2.95%
		Ral	7	10	9	42	995	4.22%
	Total		18	30	26	95	2,462	3.86%
Devotion	T-0	Jax	5	16	28	67	1,470	4.56%
		Phx	7	22	24	60	2,609	2.30%
		Ral	8	21	28	54	1,672	3.23%
	Total		20	59	80	181	5,751	3.15%
Fabelmans	T-1	Jax	2	11	11	23	645	3.57%
		Phx	1	7	3	8	281	2.85%
		Ral	3	12	-1	16	1,522	1.05%
	Total		6	30	13	47	2,448	1.92%
Glass Onion	T-1	Jax	4	19	31	246	1,925	12.78%
		Phx	3	23	53	254	1,754	14.48%
		Ral	2	17	30	361	1,228	29.40%
	Total		9	59	114	861	4,907	17.55%
Heard the Bells	T-9	Jax	4	5	0	92	678	13.57%
		Phx	2	2	1	27	596	4.53%
		Ral	6	6	2	246	566	43.46%
	Total		12	13	3	365	1,840	19.84%
Puss Boots (EA)	T-4	Jax	4	4	0	76	366	20.77%
		Phx	5	5	8	91	488	18.65%
		Ral	6	6	8	61	757	8.06%
	Total		15	15	16	228	1,611	14.15%
Puss in Boots	T-29	Jax	5	29	0	4	3,051	0.13%
		Phx	5	25	7	17	3,084	0.55%
		Ral	6	35	0	19	4,013	0.47%
	Total		16	89	7	40	10,148	0.39%
Strange World	T-0	Jax	5	20	32	59	1,973	2.99%
		Phx	7	23	43	85	2,994	2.84%
		Ral	8	18	19	44	2,043	2.15%
	Total		20	61	94	188	7,010	2.68%
Violent Night	T-9	Jax	5	18	1	22	1,974	1.11%
		Phx	5	14	2	18	2,161	0.83%
		Ral	6	13	7	32	1,485	2.15%
	Total		16	45	10	72	5,620	1.28%

 

Bones and All T-0 comps

 - Crawdads - .098x (197k)

 - Antlers - .805x (298k)

 - Smile - .473x (803k)

 - Last Night in Soho - .534x (400k)

 

Strange World T-0 comps

 - Lightyear - .109x (535k)

 - Encanto - .416x (624k)

 - Sonic 2 - .107x (534k)

 - Sing 2 - .048x (388k)

 

Really picked up last night.  Expecting another great day heading into previews.

 

Devotion - T-0 comps

 - Amsterdam - 1.046x (575k)

 - Snake Eyes - .437x (612k)

 - Free Guy - .316x (695k)

 - Massive Talent - .688x (482k)

 

Devotion had a pretty great day too.  

 

Glass Onion T-1 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - NTTD + EA - missed

 - F9 - .395x (2.8m)

 - Ghostbusters + EA - .596x (2.68m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .114x (2.209m)

Fabelmans T-1 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - House of Gucci - .129x (168k)

 - Elvis - .055x (175k)

 

Puss in Boots EA T-4 comps

 - Sing 2 EA - .406x

 - Sonic 2 EA - 1.02x (1.3m)

 

Violent Night T-9 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.938x (969k)

 - Bullet Train - .286x (957k)

 - Northman - .66x (890k)

 

I Heard the Bells T-9 comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - .783x (1.41m)

 

Avatar 2 Day 1 comps (22hr)

 - Eternals (23hr) - 1.282x (12.18m)

 - TG2 - .939x (18.13m)

 - JW3 - .984x (17.71m)

 

Puss in Boots T-29 comps

 - Nope - .234x (1.5m)

 - JW3 + EA - .023x (419k)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

9 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

I'm interested in tracking the saturday and sunday presale numbers, are those general highter than Th/Fri presales or lower cause people just walkup?

Lower. 

[jedijake]

Is No Way Home going to be a good comp for Av2? Or maybe Last Jedi?

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

Is No Way Home going to be a good comp for Av2? Or maybe Last Jedi?

No, neither of those will be remotely useful. Much too large day 1s and final previews.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

Is No Way Home going to be a good comp for Av2? Or maybe Last Jedi?

We discussed this a few pages ago. Both of those would be awful comps.

[charlie Jatinder]

Avatar 2 Harkins Previews T-24 Days

 

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
350	81,951	2,105	2.57%	$30,901	$14.68

 

Comps

2.06x Eternals first day of sales- $19.80M

0.77x Top Gun: Maverick first day of sales - $14.86M

 

Ideally ATP should be higher but Harkins has lack of 3D screens, so majority shows and sales are in 2D. 3D only makes around 35% of total sales and half of them coming in 2D PLFs.

 

2D - 393/51498 - 195 shows
3D - 70/7941 - 65 shows
3D HFR - 255/12075 - 59 shows
IMAX 3D - 362/1245 - 3 shows
Cine1 & Cine Capri - 1073/9192 - 28 shows

 

Spread of sales for weekend is excellent, FRI making 80%+ of THU and SAT almost same.

Edited November 22, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-23	Avatar 2	PLF	43	654	654	6,710	9.75%	$16.57	$10,834.87
		Standard	15	120	120	2,106	5.70%	$12.39	$1,486.33
	Total		58	774	774	8,816	8.78%	$15.92	$12,321.20

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-23	Avatar 2	N	37	641	641	5,693	11.26%	$16.71	$10,709.69
		Y	21	133	133	3,123	4.26%	$12.12	$1,611.51
	Total		58	774	774	8,816	8.78%	$15.92	$12,321.20

 

Day 1 comps

 - NWH - .058x (2.92m)

 - Batman - .34x (7.14m)

 - Thor 4 - .215x (6.235m)

 - DS2 - .147x (5.31m)

 - BP2 - .324x (9.07m)

 

Pretty slow start.  Most of these starting with just 4-6 shows with the majority being 3d/PLF.  

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

NWH - .058x (2.92m)

Stop the count, jedijake was a prophet

[Old Spice]

T-23 Avatar 2 Salt Lake Valley update for preview night.

 

Total Tix Sold:

Cinemark Sugarhouse (SLC, non PLF) 24

Cinemark Draper XD 65

Cinemark Farmington XD 112

Total Tix Sold 201

 

Current Avatar 2 presale as a % of FINAL presale:

Bullet Train 179%

Halloween Ends 93%

NOPE 66.8%

Black Adam 60.7%

BP: Wakanda 16.5%

 

First 24 hours, Sugarhouse only:

17.9% of Thor L&T

9.7% of MOM

 

Current Avatar 2 presale as a % of FINAL JW: Dominion presale, Sugarhouse only: 6.6%

 

Three theater increase over yesterday's report: 76%. Looking like a strong start in Salt Lake. Will track about every two days and then daily the week of.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[IronJimbo]

14 minutes ago, A Star is Delayed said:

T-23 Avatar 2 Salt Lake Valley update for preview night.

 

Total Tix Sold:

Cinemark Sugarhouse (SLC, non PLF) 24

Cinemark Draper XD 65

Cinemark Farmington XD 112

Total Tix Sold 201

 

Current Avatar 2 presale as a % of FINAL presale:

Bullet Train 179%

Halloween Ends 93%

NOPE 66.8%

Black Adam 60.7%

BP: Wakanda 16.5%

 

First 24 hours, Sugarhouse only:

17.9% of Thor L&T

9.7% of MOM

 

Current Avatar 2 presale as a % of FINAL JW: Dominion presale, Sugarhouse only: 6.6%

 

Three theater increase over yesterday's report: 76%. Looking like a strong start in Salt Lake. Will track about every two days and then daily the week of.

damn, must be something in the water there! good stuff

[jedijake]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

We discussed this a few pages ago. Both of those would be awful comps.

I was sleeping a few pages ago. Or at work. Pages come and go so quickly.

[Tinalera]

Avatar 2

Calgary AB Canada

Thurs Dec 15 (taken Nov 22) 

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	8	36	223	6731	6954	0.0320

 

 

So yes I bit the biscuit and am doing 3 Canadian cities on a rotating basis. Im starting with Calgary today, next will be Toronto tomorrow, and Montreal on Thurs. I will then come back to Calgary with a update from last take, and so forth with the other cities. 

 

Oh and now for the first time those lovely letters "HFR" are showing up on my seat counts (Im guessing this will be Hollywoods new toy when the movies proceeds to become a money tree)

 

For my sanity I am doing Thurs ONLY right now, there will be no comps, just pretty much data. Fridays I will work on when are within a week or so of the opening (because Cineplex likes to wait till that time to drop majority of inventory).

 

I am doing this for avatar only. If I actually am okay with this, I may carry this idea to other movies to get a more Canada wide look.

 

Hopefully I do not end up saying:

 

 

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by Tinalera