The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[misterpepp]

Empire of Light is on sale Nov 29

 

Have a great Thanksgiving

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

B.  I know, but I didn't copy/paste anything so that's why I was confused lol

 

It sometimes leaks in. I think I know the technical reason why, but it's too boring to talk about, even for me.

 

(copy-n-pasting the offending "white text" as "plain text" after noticing it should get rid of it, but that's usually too much of a bother)

[GOGODanca]

How are the saturday/sunday numbers looking for a2 for those who are tracking those?

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

269

2354

11.43%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

201

1774

11.33%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 16 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1154	159	24555	4.70%	15	161

 

AMCs sold	749
Cinemarks sold	161
Regals sold	145
Harkins sold	99

 

0.542x Black Panther WF Day 2 (15.16M)

0.359x Thor L&T T-23 (10.41M)

0.817x Jurassic World 3 T-23 (14.71M)

1.49x Eternals T-23 (14.11M)

1.83x Dune Day 2 (9.34M)

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

325

2354

13.81%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

226

1774

12.74%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1355	201	24555	5.52%	15	161

 

AMCs sold	869
Cinemarks sold	186
Regals sold	175
Harkins sold	125

 

0.390x Thor L&T T-22 (11.32M)

0.933x Jurassic World 3 T-22 (16.79M)

1.62x Eternals T-22 (15.43M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex [+16 hours of sales]

 

T-23 Thursday(103 showings): 1228(+154)/25083

0.450x Thor L&T T-23 (13.04M)

1.17x Jurassic World 3 T-23 (21.07M)

 

T-24 Friday(154 showings): 941(+120)/36835

0.745x Thor L&T T-24 (30.21M)

0.974x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (40.51M)

 

T-25 Saturday(153 showings): 1013(+188)/39352

1.76x Thor L&T T-25 (73.93M)

1.52x Jurassic World 3 T-25 (71.27M)

 

T-26 Sunday(175 showings): 321(+86)/44851

1.82x Thor L&T T-26 (59.28M)

2.28x Jurassic World 3 T-26 (88.01M)

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex

 

T-22 Thursday(108 showings): 1440(+212)/25833

0.471x Thor L&T T-22 (13.66M)

1.33x Jurassic World 3 T-22 (24.00M)

 

T-23 Friday(156 showings): 1227(+286)/37765

0.838x Thor L&T T-23 (33.96M)

1.25x Jurassic World 3 T-23 (51.99M)

 

T-24 Saturday(154 showings): 1268(+255)/39553

1.82x Thor L&T T-24 (76.72M)

1.87x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (87.68M)

 

T-25 Sunday(175 showings): 448(+127)/44851

2.35x Thor L&T T-25 (76.23M)

2.99x Jurassic World 3 T-25 (115.29M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse [+16 hours of sales]

 

T-23 Thursday(127 showings): 1791(+266)/18613 ATP: $16.65

0.208x Thor L&T T-23 (6.04M)

0.519x Jurassic World 3 T-23 (9.34M)

 

T-24 Friday(193 showings): 2116(+297)/28426 ATP: $16.30

0.355x Thor L&T T-24 (14.38M)

0.758x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (31.53M)

 

T-25 Saturday(199 showings): 2306(+326)/29268 ATP: $15.47

0.446x Thor L&T T-25 (18.78M)

0.799x Jurassic World 3 T-25 (37.47M)

 

T-26 Sunday(194 showings): 1036(+216)/28335 ATP: $14.92

0.414x Thor L&T T-26 (16.76M)

0.895x Jurassic World 3 T-26 (34.53M)

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-22 Thursday(127 showings): 2098(+307)/18613 ATP: $16.60

0.227x Thor L&T T-22 (6.59M)

0.587x Jurassic World 3 T-22 (10.57M)

 

T-23 Friday(193 showings): 2456(+340)/28426 ATP: $16.30

0.376x Thor L&T T-23 (15.27M)

0.843x Jurassic World 3 T-23 (35.06M)

 

T-24 Saturday(199 showings): 2783(+477)/29268 ATP: $15.44

0.477x Thor L&T T-24 (20.07M)

0.929x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (43.56M)

 

T-25 Sunday(194 showings): 1302(+266)/28335 ATP: $14.83

0.470x Thor L&T T-25 (15.27M)

1.11x Jurassic World 3 T-25 (42.70M)

[filmlover]

Theater counts for December 2 from The Numbers:

 

Violent Night: 3,500

Spoiler Alert: 6

[keysersoze123]

Avatar way of water MTC2 previews - 27418/475435 445314.56 3017 shows

 

No projection from this one but looking at MTC1 I am feeling good about 20m+ previews and 150m+ OW. Let us wait until closer to release to have more accurate projection. 

[IronJimbo]

Reaction Embargo 6th, Review Embargo 13th American time (when it opens internationally).

Does positive reactions effect presales massively?

[Flamengo81]

9 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Reaction Embargo 6th, Review Embargo 13th American time (when it opens internationally).

Does positive reactions effect presales massively?

Raving reviews do bring a very nice bump to sales. Good, but not great reviews not so much honestly. At least is what I learned following this thread...

[GOGODanca]

Reviews are too close to release to make a big difference, iirc wakanda forever didn't get some massive bump either 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, M37 said:

Fwiw, Disney tried this mandatory high 3D share once before with (I believe) Thor Dark World, and it failed spectacularly, with 2D shows selling out hours in advance while earlier 3D was nearly empty,

Except this isn't Thor 2 but Avatar 2, a film that is meant to be seen in 3D.

[Porthos]

37 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Except this isn't Thor 2 but Avatar 2, a film that is meant to be seen in 3D.

 

Devil's Adocate: Can lead a horse to water...

 

 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Reaction Embargo 6th, Review Embargo 13th American time (when it opens internationally).

Does positive reactions effect presales massively?

 

Flamengo81 answered half the question, so I'll answer the second half.  Very positive social media embargo reactions absolutely can boost ticket sales for a day or two before settling back down to a (perhaps higher) baseline, especially if they are more than a week from release.  The closer to release, the harder it is to pinpoint what is boosting sales and what isn't (more on this in a mo).

 

And contra very slightly to what GOGODanca said, IMO I think raving reviews helps even when it's very close the release.  The problem is, it can be hard to disentangle a boost from great reviews from the normal increase films usually get the closer to release.

 

So the way I would put it is: Great Reviews help, but being able to definitively say/measure how much they are helping is really hard (if not impossible) to measure due to everything else happening at release time.  The classic case of "separating the signal from the noise".  

 

Like, I can usually tell when reviews are mattering (either good or bad), but that's also because I've been studying the patterns of my local market for four years.  Closer to the art side of the "tracking can be just as much an art as a science" idea.

 

(in the end, I suspect separating signal from noise is what @GOGODanca was talking about, but I wanted to make a somewhat nuanced point about it all)

Edited November 24, 2022 by Porthos

[M37]

43 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Except this isn't Thor 2 but Avatar 2, a film that is meant to be seen in 3D.

Can claim a movie is “meant to seen” in whatever presentation format you want, but the viewing public will ultimately decide for themselves whether it’s worth the time, effort and money to do so. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

Can claim a movie is “meant to seen” in whatever presentation format you want, but the viewing public will ultimately decide for themselves whether it’s worth the time, effort and money to do so. 

 

Yep ultimately public decides, and they are deciding. the fact that 3D seats are selling and not empty shows that audience wanna watch this in 3D, otherwise there are ton of 2D shows to go to, if audience just wanted to watch in 2D, they would be selling much better. 

That said, I am a bit disappointed by 3D share in US as compared to rest of world, but I guess that's bad rep for 3D over the years in play. With WOM post release, US can improve as well.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yep ultimately public decides, and they are deciding. the fact that 3D seats are selling and not empty shows that audience wanna watch this in 3D, otherwise there are ton of 2D shows to go to, if audience just wanted to watch in 2D, they would be selling much better. 

 

Or they want to see this in PLF and will take 3D coz they have no other choice.

 

Maybe chicken and egg in regards to "is it PLF or is it 3D PLF", and I actually am impressed with the level of 3D purchases here (as I've said more than once).  But I don't think it's quite as cut and dried as you're making it out in the bolded bit.

Edited November 24, 2022 by Porthos

[XXR & Friends]

24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yep ultimately public decides, and they are deciding. the fact that 3D seats are selling and not empty shows that audience wanna watch this in 3D, otherwise there are ton of 2D shows to go to, if audience just wanted to watch in 2D, they would be selling much better. 

That said, I am a bit disappointed by 3D share in US as compared to rest of world, but I guess that's bad rep for 3D over the years in play. With WOM post release, US can improve as well.

 

20 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Or they want to see this in PLF and will take 3D coz they have no other choice.

 

Maybe chicken and egg in regards to "is it PLF or is it 3D PLF", and I actually am impressed with the level of 3D purchases here (as I've said more than once).  But I don't think it's quite as cut and dried as you're making it out in the bolded bit.

 

As Harry Stamper (Bruce Willis) said in Armageddon, "It's not a choice it's a lack of options."
 

[charlie Jatinder]

I can only refer to my data

On 11/22/2022 at 10:13 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

2D - 393/51498 - 195 shows
3D - 70/7941 - 65 shows
3D HFR - 255/12075 - 59 shows
IMAX 3D - 362/1245 - 3 shows
Cine1 & Cine Capri - 1073/9192 - 28 shows

2D normal is selling at 0.7% while 3D normal is 0.88% vs 3D HFR at 2.11%

[excel1]

20 hours ago, Flopped said:

General audiences will hate Bones & All. It's also just not very good. 

 

+1. This movie is way, way too weird and the story is a try hardish mess. How was this ever greenlit?