The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric is Quiet]

On 12/20/2022 at 12:58 AM, Eric in Boots said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	36	5433	0.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1

 

Comp

0.654x of The Conjuring 3 T-17 (6.42M)

0.145x of Scream T-17 (506K)

0.137x of Nope T-17 (876K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	40	5433	0.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.645x of The Conjuring 3 T-16 (6.32M)

0.151x of Scream T-16 (528K)

0.146x of Nope T-16 (938K)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/20/2022 at 8:35 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Babylon	T-2	Jax	5	13	0	27	1,430	1.89%
		Phx	7	21	15	79	2,117	3.73%
		Ral	8	19	7	68	1,714	3.97%
	Total		20	53	22	174	5,261	3.31%
I Wanna Dance	T-2	Jax	5	15	15	77	1,454	5.30%
		Phx	7	25	28	79	2,841	2.78%
		Ral	9	25	20	107	2,579	4.15%
	Total		20	65	63	263	6,874	3.83%
M3GAN	T-16	Jax	5	20	0	7	1,758	0.40%
		Phx	5	13	0	9	2,039	0.44%
		Ral	7	14	0	13	1,817	0.72%
	Total		17	47	0	29	5,614	0.52%
Puss in Boots	T-1	Jax	6	60	50	183	6,668	2.74%
		Phx	6	54	39	102	7,034	1.45%
		Ral	7	74	54	238	8,060	2.95%
	Total		19	188	143	523	21,762	2.40%

 

Puss in Boots T-1 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .373x (1.86m)

 - Minions 2 - .303x (3.26m)

 - Lyle Lyle - 5.5x (3.16m)

 - Super Pets - 1.764x (3.88m)

 - Paw Patrol - .673x (3.04m)

 - Strange World - 5.55x (4.44m)
 - Sing 2 - .187x (1.52m)

 - Encanto - 1.68x (2.53m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-2 comps

 - Elvis - .354x (1.132m)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.922x (1.46m)

 - Respect - 3.7x (2.41m)

 - House of Gucci - .857x (1.11m)

 - King Richard - 1.26x (2.45m)

 

Babylon T-2 comps

 - Elvis - .234x (749k)

 - Bullet Train - .331x (1.11m)

 - Amsterdam - 1.392x (765k)

 - Death on the Nile - .853x (938k)

 - Lost City - .499x (1.25m)

 

M3GAN T-16 comps

 - Nope - .099x (636k)

 - Black Phone - .42x (1.09m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Babylon	T-1	Jax	5	20	9	36	1,823	1.97%
		Phx	7	25	17	96	2,442	3.93%
		Ral	8	22	13	81	1,995	4.06%
	Total		20	67	39	213	6,260	3.40%
I Wanna Dance	T-1	Jax	5	25	8	85	2,167	3.92%
		Phx	7	28	21	100	2,960	3.38%
		Ral	9	31	19	126	3,261	3.86%
	Total		20	84	48	311	8,388	3.71%
M3GAN	T-15	Jax	5	20	0	7	1,758	0.40%
		Phx	5	13	0	9	2,039	0.44%
		Ral	7	14	0	13	1,817	0.72%
	Total		17	47	0	29	5,614	0.52%
Puss in Boots	T-0	Jax	6	69	153	336	7,500	4.48%
		Phx	7	71	116	218	8,155	2.67%
		Ral	7	77	178	416	8,242	5.05%
	Total		20	217	447	970	23,897	4.06%

 

Puss in Boots T-0 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .553x (2.756m)

 - Minions 2 - .326x (3.507m)

 - Lyle Lyle - 7.185x (4.13m)

 - Super Pets - 2.113x (4.65m)

 - Paw Patrol - .691x (3.125m)

 - Strange World - 5.16x (4.128m)
 - Sing 2 - .246x (2m)

 - Encanto - 2.146x (3.219m)

All animated - 3.84m

All PG - 3.4m

All movies - 3.12m

 

Great final day for Puss in Boots.  It's always tough to compare OD sales with preview sales, but I'd bet based on the past 24 hours we could see around 4m OD.   I'm not sure how well EA did, but my comps were pointing to ~2m so all in all a pretty good start!

 

I Wanna Dance T-1 comps

 - Elvis - .362x (1.157m)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.934x (1.47m)

 - Respect - 2.962x (1.925m)

 - House of Gucci - .857x (1.11m)

 - King Richard - .934x (1.81m)

 

Babylon T-1 comps

 - Elvis - .248x (792k)

 - Bullet Train - .287x (963k)

 - Amsterdam - 1.5x (825k)

 - Death on the Nile - .855x (941k)

 - Lost City - .441x (1.1m)

 

M3GAN T-15 comps

 - Nope - .096x (613k)

 - Black Phone - .414x (1.08m)

[M37]

14 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Babylon	T-1	Jax	5	20	9	36	1,823	1.97%
		Phx	7	25	17	96	2,442	3.93%
		Ral	8	22	13	81	1,995	4.06%
	Total		20	67	39	213	6,260	3.40%
I Wanna Dance	T-1	Jax	5	25	8	85	2,167	3.92%
		Phx	7	28	21	100	2,960	3.38%
		Ral	9	31	19	126	3,261	3.86%
	Total		20	84	48	311	8,388	3.71%
M3GAN	T-15	Jax	5	20	0	7	1,758	0.40%
		Phx	5	13	0	9	2,039	0.44%
		Ral	7	14	0	13	1,817	0.72%
	Total		17	47	0	29	5,614	0.52%
Puss in Boots	T-0	Jax	6	69	153	336	7,500	4.48%
		Phx	7	71	116	218	8,155	2.67%
		Ral	7	77	178	416	8,242	5.05%
	Total		20	217	447	970	23,897	4.06%

 

Puss in Boots T-0 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .553x (2.756m)

 - Minions 2 - .326x (3.507m)

 - Lyle Lyle - 7.185x (4.13m)

 - Super Pets - 2.113x (4.65m)

 - Paw Patrol - .691x (3.125m)

 - Strange World - 5.16x (4.128m)
 - Sing 2 - .246x (2m)

 - Encanto - 2.146x (3.219m)

All animated - 3.84m

All PG - 3.4m

All movies - 3.12m

 

Great final day for Puss in Boots.  It's always tough to compare OD sales with preview sales, but I'd bet based on the past 24 hours we could see around 4m OD.   I'm not sure how well EA did, but my comps were pointing to ~2m so all in all a pretty good start!

 

 

Yeah, thinking Puss is going surprise some people, especially from Xmas day onward - really getting a Jumanji WTJ vibe here (for a few reasons). The Sing 2 and Sonic 2 comps drag down the average, but both being sequels to recent releases likely makes them more pre-sale heavy/frontloaded

 

Now expecting $4M+ for OD (excluding EA, and barring weather impacts), and if it tracks similar to Jumanji WTJ, $150M+ is in play

[Joyous Legion]

PiB is also a sequel and recent release tbf 🧐

 

Sing is the most natural comparison in terms of circumstance but it may have just indexed funny relative to these regions.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Puss in Boots	N	40	127	127	4,724	2.69%	$12.21	$1,550.09
		Y	63	299	299	7,230	4.14%	$9.09	$2,716.51
	Total		103	426	426	11,954	3.56%	$10.02	$4,266.60
T-2	Babylon	N	10	26	26	679	3.83%	$12.27	$319.08
		Y	10	17	17	679	2.50%	$9.63	$163.69
	Total		20	43	43	1,358	3.17%	$11.23	$482.77
T-2	I Wanna Dance	N	20	48	48	1,714	2.80%	$12.41	$595.90
		Y	10	32	32	857	3.73%	$9.52	$304.66
	Total		30	80	80	2,571	3.11%	$11.26	$900.56

 

Puss in Boots T-1 comps

 - Minions 2 - .237x (2.55m)

 - Sonic 2 - .28x (1.39m)

 - Lightyear - .518x (2.54m)

 - Super Pets - 1.511x (3.32m)

 

Babylon T-2 comps

 - Bullet Train - .251x (842k)

 - Elvis - missed

 - Crawdads - .174x (348k)

 - Easter Sunday - .86x (430k)

 - Massive Talent - 1.536x (1.28m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-2 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - Downton - .491x (515k)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.6x (800k)

Santikos Tracking

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Puss in Boots	N	42	141	268	4,850	5.53%	$12.29	$3,293.68
		Y	65	457	756	7,356	10.28%	$9.11	$6,884.19
	Total		107	598	1,024	12,206	8.39%	$9.94	$10,177.87
T-1	Babylon	N	10	8	34	679	5.01%	$12.44	$423.00
		Y	10	3	20	679	2.95%	$9.65	$192.91
	Total		20	11	54	1,358	3.98%	$11.41	$615.91
T-1	I Wanna Dance	N	20	15	63	1,714	3.68%	$12.09	$761.53
		Y	10	19	51	857	5.95%	$9.36	$477.30
	Total		30	34	114	2,571	4.43%	$10.87	$1,238.83

 

Puss in Boots T-0 comps

 - Minions 2 - .324x (3.48m)

 - Sonic 2 - .507x (2.52m)

 - Lightyear - .724x (3.55m)

 - Super Pets - 1.969x (4.33m)

 

Solid day in Santikos as well, pointing toward a 3.5m OD.  Interesting to note that Santikos isn't giving Puss any 3D screens today.

 

Babylon T-1 comps

 - Bullet Train - .224x (751k)

 - Elvis - missed

 - Crawdads - .144x (289k)

 - Easter Sunday - .982x (491k)

 - Massive Talent - 1.23x (1.02m)

 - Paradise - .31x (341k)

 

I Wanna Dance T-1 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - Downton - .579x (608k)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.07x (1.04m)

 - Paradise - .655x (721k)

 

Babylon and I Wanna Dance are both stuck on one screen at all 10 theaters for previews.  

[M37]

35 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

PiB is also a sequel and recent release tbf 🧐

 

Sing is the most natural comparison in terms of circumstance but it may have just indexed funny relative to these regions.

Big difference between 11 years and (pandemic delayed) 5 year gap IMO

 

And I do expect PiB to have a market distribution more similar to Minions, which is one of the reasons I’ve been higher on it from the jump 😉

[Alex SciChannel]

So are we expecting PiBTLW to break even with a ~90M budget? We could see a 300M-400M worldwide final.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Alex SciChannel said:

So are we expecting PiBTLW to break even with a ~90M budget? We could see a 300M-400M worldwide final.

It's been doing soft numbers in the countries it's been released in so far so probably going to need to perform as well it can domestically to approach that number.

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

It's been doing soft numbers in the countries it's been released in so far so probably going to need to perform as well it can domestically to approach that number.

In countries where It was realesed before Christmas Holidays.

[Tinalera]

Wonder how this affects Chinese Box Office. 

 

https://www.cbr.com/avatar-the-way-of-water-not-suitable-chinese-audience/

 

I don't know much about Bona film group, do they have a big sway in public attending films or not really?

[katnisscinnaplex]

US Showtimes Sample

 

Wed-Thu Comps

Puss in Boots 2 - 45,568 (3,351 TC) (2,218 PLF)

 - Sing 2 - 35,697 (3,093) (1,613 PLF)

 - Strange World - 34,252 (~3,100) (5,109 PLF)

 

5-Day Comps

Puss in Boots 2 - 114,888 (3,436 TC) (5,607 PLF)

 - Sing 2 - 91,663 (3,331) (4,256 PLF)

 - Strange World - 105,995 (3,347) (15,014 PLF)

[Alex SciChannel]

5 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

US Showtimes Sample

 

Wed-Thu Comps

Puss in Boots 2 - 45,568 (3,351 TC) (2,218 PLF)

 - Sing 2 - 35,697 (3,093) (1,613 PLF)

 - Strange World - 34,252 (~3,100) (5,109 PLF)

 

5-Day Comps

Puss in Boots 2 - 114,888 (3,436 TC) (5,607 PLF)

 - Sing 2 - 91,663 (3,331) (4,256 PLF)

 - Strange World - 105,995 (3,347) (15,014 PLF)

Is that good?

 

Wait nvm that's just showtimes

Edited December 21, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[misterpepp]

Knock at the Cabin tix on sale Xmas Day, 12/25.

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish T-0: 63.82% Awareness, 6.11 Interest

The Whale T-0: 26.3%, 5.01

A Man Called Otto T-23: 27.46%, 5.32

Magic Mike's Last Dance T-51: 29.92%, 5.25

Barbie T-212: 31.4%, 4.57

Oppenheimer T-212: 17.61%, 5.16

 

Babylon T-2: 30.64% Awareness, 4.97 Interest

Final Awareness: 42% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 21% chance of 10M

Original - High Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

Original - High Interest: 0% chance of 100M

 

I Wanna Dance with Somebody T-2: 37.83% Awareness, 5.45 Interest

Final Awareness: 42% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 43% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 73% chance of 5M, 36% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 57% chance of 5M, 29% chance of 10M

 

Missing T-30: 15.86% Awareness, 5.22 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 61% chance of 10M

[ZeeSoh]

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

Wonder how this affects Chinese Box Office. 

 

https://www.cbr.com/avatar-the-way-of-water-not-suitable-chinese-audience/

 

I don't know much about Bona film group, do they have a big sway in public attending films or not really?

I very much doubt that it had any affect whatsoever on Avatar’s run in China or will in the future. The movie has great scores from both critics and audiences so far and a CEO’s comments, who obviously is trying to boost his own local films, won’t have any effect. 
 

Besides he is a few days late since a big chunk of people who wanted to see Avatar have already seen it in the last 6-7 days

[Eric is Quiet]

22 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

Babylon Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	39	162	4621	3.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 28

 

Comp

3.767x of The Last Duel T-2 (1.32M)

0.661x of Last Night in Soho T-2 (463K)

2.893x of The 355 T-2 (1.01M)

0.905x of Death on the Nile T-2 (995K)

1.514x of Ambulance T-2 (1.06M)

0.438x of The Northman T-2 (591K)

0.689x of Unbearable Weight T-2 (576K)

0.168x of Bullet Train T-2 (773K)

0.129x of Don't Worry Darling T-2 (401K)

0.826x of Amsterdam T-2 (454K)

Babylon Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	39	190	4621	4.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 28

 

Comp

3.115x of The Last Duel T-1 (1.09M)

0.615x of Last Night in Soho T-1 (430K)

0.519x of House of Gucci T-1 (675K)

2.500x of The 355 T-1 (875K)

0.725x of Death on the Nile T-1 (798K)

1.310x of Ambulance T-1 (917K)

0.459x of The Northman T-1 (620K)

0.691x of Unbearable Weight T-1 (577K)

0.168x of Bullet Train T-1 (772K)

0.132x of Don't Worry Darling T-1 (410K)

0.888x of Amsterdam T-1 (488K)

[Eric is Quiet]

22 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

I Wanna Dance with Somebody Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	64	243	8543	2.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 25

 

Comp

2.250x of Respect T-2 (1.46M)

0.633x of Candyman T-2 (1.2M)

0.194x of Nope T-2 (1.24M)
1.687x of Beast T-2 (1.56M)

0.581x of The Woman King T-2 (988K)

I Wanna Dance with Somebody Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	64	289	8543	3.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 46

 

Comp

1.588x of Respect T-1 (1.03M)

0.481x of Candyman T-1 (914K)

0.166x of Nope T-1 (1.06M)

1.438x of Beast T-1 (1.33M)

0.470x of The Woman King T-1 (799K)

[Eric is Quiet]

22 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	40	5433	0.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.645x of The Conjuring 3 T-16 (6.32M)

0.151x of Scream T-16 (528K)

0.146x of Nope T-16 (938K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	47	5433	0.87%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 7

 

Comp

0.644x of The Conjuring 3 T-15 (6.31M)

0.171x of Scream T-15 (598K)

0.164x of Nope T-15 (1.05M)

0.118x of Halloween Ends T-15 (639K)

[Issac Newton]

4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 7 films at the domestic box office.

 

Rank	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century)	$95.0 M	$294.5 M	-29%	2
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation)	$26.0 M	$36.5 M	NEW	1
3	Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony / TriStar)	$15.3 M	$15.3 M	NEW	1
4	Babylon (Paramount)	$11.2 M	$11.2 M	NEW	1
5	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney)	$5.3 M	$428.1 M	-1%	7
6	Violent Night (Universal)	$4.5 M	$43.1 M	-11%	4
7	The Whale (A24)	$3.1 M	$4.9 M	+1,725%	3

[filmlover]

The Whale is selling strong near me. Think it's gonna pull a mini Uncut Gems and and end up with a total in teens (decent given the dire state of Oscar/adult fare this fall).